Supplementary Material S4: Uncertainty analysis
To assess parametric model uncertainty, we generated maps showing the proportion of model
runs (n=100) where the models agreed that the climate was suitable for each species of
Hawkweed (ie. Ecoclimatic Index above zero).
Uncertainty analysis in CLIMEX allows the impact on model outputs due to potential
interactions between parameters to be assessed. Random values of each parameter are
simultaneously sampled from a triangular distribution to indicate the overall levels of model
uncertainty (Helton et al. 2005).
The results of the uncertainty analysis provide confidence in the models of potential
distributions, as they show a very high level of model agreement around the areas identified
as being climatically suitable for the establishment of all species.
Figure S4.1: The percentage of model runs where the climate was suitable (ie Ecoclimatic
Index above zero) for the Hawkweed species
a) H. aurantiacum
b) H. pilosella, H.
murorum
c) H. praealtum
References
Helton JC, Davis FJ, Johnson JD (2005) A comparison of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
results obtained with random and Latin hypercube sampling Reliability Engineering
& System Safety 89:305-330 doi:10.1016/j.ress.2004.08.006