AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Antony Goldman, Santa Cruz, March 2008
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• Historical context
• External environment
Technology
Strategic issues
Emerging players
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• US oil reserves 21.8bn barrels
US gas reserves 204.4 trillion cubic feet
• Nigeria oil reserves 36.2bn bbls
Nigeria gas reserves 184.6 tcf
• Algeria oil reserves 12.3bn bbls
Algeria gas reserves 161.7tcf
• Venezuela oil reserves 80.1bn bbls
• Venezuela gas reserves 152.3tcf
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• OPEC/AFRICA OIL EXPORTS
total of 6.3m b/d in 2006 of which:
• 3.3m b/d to north America
• 2.5m b/d to Europe
• 0.3m b/d to Asia Pacific
AFRICA RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
• World Bank in 2006 estimates India
imported 50 per cent of petroleum from
Africa, principally Nigeria.
• China imports 25 per cent of crude oil
requirement from Africa, increasing at 30
per cent a year. Imports principally from
Angola, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea and
Congo.
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Source: Africa's Silk Road World Bank 2006
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Asia’s oil interests in Africa
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
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Financing and loans
‘Soft’ power
Defence co-operation
Construction and infrastructure
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Nigeria
Oil discovered in 1955
Produces 2.1m b/d
Resource control issues in the Niger Delta
Deepwater development – political, security
New players – independents, indigenous,
Asian
Proposed reform agenda
AFRICA: RESOURCE
COMPETITION AND CONFLICT
Outlook:
A more competitive market
Comparative advantage/ language, history
Leveraging governance issues
Africa’s choice