Postnatal HIV Transmission in breastfed infants of HIV-infected women on ART: a systematic review and meta-analysis Stephanie Bispo1§ , Lana Chikhungu2*, Nigel Rollins3*, Nandi Siegfried4*, Marie-Louise Newell5* Department of Social Statistics and Demography, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK. 2 School of Languages and Area Studies, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK 3 Department of Maternal, New-born, Child and Adolescent Health, World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland 4 Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa 5 Human Development and Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK § Corresponding author: Stephanie Bispo University Road Southampton, SO17 1BJ, England. Phone number: +44 7870545308 Email: [email protected] *These authors have contributed equally to the work Email addresses of authors: SB: [email protected] LC: [email protected] NR: [email protected] NS: [email protected] MLN: [email protected] Key words: Antiretroviral therapy; HIV; prevention of mother-to-child transmission; breast feeding; systematic review; meta-analysis. 1 Abstract 2 Introduction: To systematically review the literature on mother-to-child transmission in 3 breastfed infants whose mothers received antiretroviral therapy and support the process of 4 updating the WHO infant feeding guidelines in the context of HIV and ART. 5 Methods: We reviewed experimental and observational studies; exposure was maternal HIV 6 antiretroviral therapy (and duration) and infant feeding modality; outcomes were overall and 7 postnatal HIV transmission rates in the infant at 6, 9, 12 and 18 months. English literature 8 from 2005 to 2015 was systematically searched in multiple electronic databases. Papers were 9 analysed by narrative synthesis; data were pooled in random effects meta-analyses. Postnatal 10 transmission was assessed from 4-6 weeks of life. Study quality was assessed using a 11 modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) and GRADE. 12 Results and discussion: Eleven studies were identified, from 1439 citations and review of 72 13 abstracts. Heterogeneity in study methodology and pooled estimates was considerable. 14 Overall pooled transmission rates at 6 months for breastfed infants with mothers on ART was 15 3.54% (95 confidence interval, CI, 1.15-5.93%) and at 12 months 4.23% (95% CI 2.97- 16 5.49%). Postnatal transmission rates were 1.08 (95% CI: 0.32-1.85) at six and 2.93 (95%CI: 17 0.68-5.18) at 12 months. ART was mostly provided for PMTCT only and did not continue 18 beyond 6 months postpartum. No study provided data on mixed feeding and transmission 19 risk. 20 Conclusions: There is evidence of substantially reduced postnatal HIV transmission risk 21 under the cover of maternal ART. However, transmission risk increased once PMTCT ART 22 stopped at 6 months, which supports the current WHO recommendations of life-long ART for 23 all. 24 25 PROSPERO Number: Not possible, completed reviews should not be registered (according to 26 Prospero website) 2 27 Introduction 28 29 The annual number of new HIV infections in children has decreased substantially, from an 30 estimated 520,000 in 2000 to 31 significant progress is consistent with 32 antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes providing prevention of mother-to-child 33 transmission and treatment of HIV-positive adults [2, 3]. 220,000 in 2014, representing a 58% decline [1]. This improvements in the coverage and quality of 34 35 HIV transmission from mother to child can occur during pregnancy, delivery, and 36 breastfeeding [4]. Recognising the substantial benefit of breastfeeding for infant health and 37 survival, and the need to minimise the risk of postnatal transmission through breastfeeding 38 [5-7], the 2010 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommended breastfeeding 39 for infants of HIV-positive mothers for at least one year under the cover of maternal or infant 40 ART [8]. 41 42 In most African countries and some parts of India, health policy continues to advise mothers 43 living with HIV to breastfeed [9,10]. In such settings, exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) for the 44 first six months of life followed by complementary feeding and continued breastfeeding 45 (CBF) for up to one year, under the cover of ART to either the mother or the infant [6] is 46 recommended. However, these recommendations were drawn up supported by limited 47 information on the risk of postnatal HIV transmission when women or child or both were on 48 ART to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). In addition, there was little or no 49 information on whether mixed feeding (MF), which had been associated with increased risk 50 of postnatal transmission in earlier studies, remained a risk even in the presence of ART 51 [6,11]. 52 53 In the past five years, further evidence has become available from studies and programmes 54 where PMTCT postnatally was achieved through maternal ART or infant prophylaxis. The 55 risk of transmission when infants receive other feeds in addition to breastmilk in the first six 56 months of life is of particular interest for public health programmes [12]. To this end, we 57 present the results from a systematic review and GRADE Evidence summary tables, 58 addressing the question of HIV transmission rates at six, nine, 12 and 18 months in infants 59 born to women who were on ART from early-mid pregnancy until at least six months 60 postpartum, and whose infants breastfed in the first six months of life or longer. This study 3 61 was commissioned by the WHO and contributed to the formulation of the 2016 WHO HIV 62 Infant Feeding guidelines [13]. 63 64 Methods 65 The review considered both experimental and observational studies, and included HIV- 66 positive mothers receiving ART and their breastfed children regardless of receipt of infant 67 antiretroviral prophylaxis. The exposures were HIV antiretroviral therapy and feeding 68 modality during breastfeeding (EBF, MF) and outcome measures were overall and postnatal 69 HIV transmission rate at six, 12 and 18 months. 70 71 We conducted searches in multiple electronic databases including PubMed, MEDLINE, 72 EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and CINAHL for 73 articles published between 2005 and 2015. Papers were selected from 2005, as triple 74 combination regimens were prescribed from 2004 (Ref). 75 studies, grey literature and conference abstracts available online from the International IAS 76 AIDS Conference in Melbourne 2014 and the 2013-2015 Conferences on Retroviruses and 77 Opportunistic Infections (CROI) were also searched. Reference lists from relevant 78 79 Papers were firstly selected by SB and LC according to eligibility of abstracts, followed by 80 full text screening, where disagreements were solved by a third reviewer (MLN). Data was 81 collected independently by SB and revised by LC. We have used the reporting standards 82 described in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 83 (PRISMA) statement [14], and the flow chart of the screening process is shown in Figure 1. 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 4 95 98 99 100 Identification 96 97 101 Records identified through database searching (n = 1439) Additional records identified through other sources (n = 0) 1367 records excluded based on title because of being duplicates, review, qualitative study and not providing data on outcome of interest Screening 104 Abstracts screened (n = 73) Records excluded for not meeting review criteria (n = 37) Eligibility 103 Full-text articles assessed for eligibility (n = 36) Full-text articles excluded, with reasons - see supplementary table 2 (n = 25) Included 102 Studies included in the systematic review 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 (n = 11) 112 113 Figure 1. Flowchart of screening process 114 115 To obtain further information regarding infant feeding, we contacted seven first authors of 116 studies identified for inclusion in this review, to solicit additional information regarding 117 infant feeding modality in the first six months of life. Questions related to the type and 118 duration of recommended feeding practice, type of infant feeding support provided to 119 mothers, collection of data on child feeding practices, and how this data was addressed in the 120 study (proportion, statistical model, rates of transmission or death). Response from three 121 authors was included in this study. 122 123 Assessment of study quality 5 124 A modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) was developed by the authors to assess the 125 quality of all studies included in the analysis, on the basis of selection of study participants 126 and outcome assessment [15]. Each study could score a maximum of five stars on Selection 127 and four on Outcome; considering representativeness of the study population, ascertainment 128 of exposure to ART and breastfeeding, report of maternal adherence to ART and feeding 129 modality. 130 131 The information obtained from the NOS was used to comment on the quality of the included 132 studies in the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation 133 system (GRADE), a system for rating quality of evidence and grading strength of 134 recommendations in systematic reviews[16]. In this study, NOS considered study limitations, 135 consistency of results, directness, imprecision and reporting bias. 136 137 Results are presented narratively and as pooled estimates with a heterogeneity score based on 138 a random effects meta-analysis using STATA 13 (Stata Corp, 2013). Random effects were 139 used because of differences among studies, such as rates of EBF, incentives to keep treatment 140 and time excluded from postnatal transmission, what allows the true transmission rate to 141 vary from study to study [17]. We summarised the information in graphs depicting overall 142 and postnatal HIV transmission rates at six and 12 months of age. Where no confidence 143 interval was available for estimates from the study report, a confidence interval was 144 calculated based on the number of events and those at risk using the formula described by 145 Eayres (2008) [18]. 146 147 Results 148 The search process identified 1,439 citations, of which 1,367 were excluded on the basis of 149 being a duplicate, review, qualitative study or not evaluating transmission at six, 12 or 18 150 months according to feeding modality (Figure 1). The abstracts of 72 studies were evaluated 151 independently by three researchers (SB, LC and ML), and eleven studies were finally 152 selected for inclusion in this review; four of these were cohorts nested within randomised 153 clinical trials [11,19-21] and seven observational studies (include ref). In all studies mothers 154 started ART before or during pregnancy, and continued until at least six months postnatally, 155 according to the WHO recommendations at the time. Seven studies followed this 156 recommendation [5, 11,19,21-25] with six-month ART, three provided lifelong ART for all 157 women [26,27] while the remaining study [28] provided lifelong ART only for treatment6 158 eligible mothers with very low CD4 count (see Supplementary Table 1 for more details on 159 included studies). 160 161 HIV Transmission 162 Of the 11 studies, six reported the transmission rate at age six months [5,11,22-24,26], and 163 the remaining five reported HIV transmissions at a later age [19,21,25,27,28] (CHECK 164 NGOMA HERE)add 26 again. Two studies [26,23] did not provide a confidence interval 165 around the estimated transmission rate, which was calculated using the formula [18]. Two 166 studies reported the number of infections at six months and the number of children at risk: 167 one study [27] was a retrospective cohort and provided a single number as a denominator 168 (N=856); and for the second study [19] the number of children at risk was obtained from the 169 Kaplan-Meier graph. A further two studies reported the number of transmissions but not the 170 number of children at risk [21,28] and one study reported transmission only at age nine 171 months, but noted that all transmissions occurred during breastfeeding [25]. 172 173 Overall transmission at age six months 174 For six studies overall transmission rates (including peripartum) at age six months were 175 provided [19,22-24,26,27] (Figure 2A). 176 177 In three studies ART was provided since 15 weeks of pregnancy [23, 26-27]. Ngoma et al [26] 178 reported three peripartum transmissions (before six weeks, number of children at risk=219), 179 and no postnatal transmissions between six weeks and six months, with an overall 180 transmission rate at six months of 1.4% (95% CI 0.5%-3.9%). Sagay et al. [27] reported a 181 total of four infections at six months (N=856; rate of transmission was calculated as 0.5%, 182 95%CI 0.2%-1.2%). Marazzi et al. [23] reported six transmissions at six months (N=313, 183 overall transmission rate 1.9%, 95% CI 0.9%-4.1%). 184 185 The subsequent studies started ART after 30 weeks pregnancy [19,22, 29]. Jamieson et al [19] 186 reported 67 infections; 21 infections after six weeks (N=849; overall transmission rate at age 187 six months 7.9%, 95% CI 6.2%-9.9%). Thomas et al. [22] reported 24 transmissions, of 188 which 20 occurred before six weeks, for an overall transmission rate of 5.0%, 95% CI 3.4%- 189 7.4% (N=487). Kilewo et al. [29] reported 22 infections at six months, 18 before six weeks 190 (N=423; overall transmission rate 5.0%, 95% CI 2.9%-7.1%). 191 7 192 The pooled estimate of overall transmission at six months was 3.54% (95% CI 1.15%-5.93%), 193 with considerable heterogeneity (I2 94.0%) (Figure 2A). 194 195 Postnatal transmission between 4/6 weeks and 6 months 196 Six studies provided estimates of postnatal transmission rates, excluding peripartum 197 infections, diagnosed before six weeks of age [5, 11,19,22,23,29] (Figure 2B), and among 198 those, three studies provided ART since the first antenatal visit [5,11,23]. Coovadia et al[11] 199 reported one infection (N=413, rate 0.2%; 95%CI 0%-1.4%); Marazzi et al [23] provided the 200 rate of transmission after four weeks of age (2/313, rate 0.6%; 95%CI 0.2%-2.3%). Alvarez- 201 Uria et al [5] reported four (N=127) infections for a transmission rate of 3.1% (95%CI 1.2%- 202 7.8%), noting that one of the infected infants was mixed fed. 203 204 In the other three studies, ART was given in later pregnancy, where in Jamieson et al [19] 205 ART could be given from first antenatal visit until 30 weeks pregnancy, and Thomas et al [22] 206 and Kilewo et al [29] ART was given at 34 weeks pregnancy. Jamieson et al. [19] reported 21 207 infections (N=769, rate 2.7%; 95%CI 1.80-4.10); Thomas et al [22] and Kilewo et al [29] did 208 not provide a rate of postnatal transmission at six months, but the number of transmissions 209 and number of children at risk were reported. In each study there were four transmissions 210 between six weeks and six months of age (N= 482 for Thomas et al, rate of postnatal 211 transmission 0.80%, 95% CI 0.3%-2.4%; and N=418 for Kilewo et al, rate of postnatal 212 transmission 0.90%, 95% CI 0.3%-2.1%). Figure 2B shows the pooled estimate for these six 213 studies, with a pooled transmission rate of 1.08% (95% CI 0.32%-1.85%). Heterogeneity was 214 substantial (I2 66.4%). 215 8 A) B) Study (Information) Rate (95%CI) % Weight % Rate (95%CI) Weight Study (Information) Ngoma et al, 2015 (EBF:93%; N=219) 1.4 (0.5,3 .9) 16.7 Coovadia et al, 2012 (EBF:95%; N=413) 0.2(0.0,1.4) 22.3 Sagay et al, 2015 (EBF:73%; N=856) 0.5 (0.2, 1.2) 18.0 Jamieson et al, 2012 (EBF:89%; N=769) 2.7(1.8,4.1) 17.0 Jamieson et al, 2012 (EBF:89%; N=849) 7.9 (6.2, 9.9) 16.4 Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012 3.1(1.2,7.8) 4.5 (EBF:89%; N=482) 0.8(0.3,2.4) 18.1 (EBF:100%; N=313) 0.6(0.2,2.3) 18.1 0.9(0.3,2.1) 19.92 1.1(0.3,1.9) 100.0 (EBF:89%; N=487) 5.0 (3.4, 7.4) 16.1 Thomas et al, 2011 Marazzi et al, 2009 (EBF:100%; N=313) 1.9 (0.9, 4.1) 16.8 Marazzi et al, 2009 Kilewo et al, 2009 5.0 (2.9, 7.1) 15.9 Kilewo et al, 2009 Thomas et al, 2011 (EBF:80%; N=423) Overall (I-squared=94%, p=0.000) 3.5 (1.2, 5.9) 100.0 (N=127) (EBF:80%; N=418) Overall (I-squared=66.4%, p=0.011) Figure 2. Transmission rates at age six months: A) Overall transmission rate (including peripartum) at age six months B) Postnatal transmission rate between 4-6 weeks of age and age six months, with 95% confidence intervals, in children who were breastfed and whose mothers were on ART. Note: A) Sagay et al (2015) and Jamieson et al (2012) did not provide a rate of transmission, but the rate was calculated on the basis of the number of children at risk provided in the paper. For Jamieson et al (2012) transmission rate was provided at 28 weeks. For Ngoma et al (2015) and Marazzi et al (2009), a confidence interval was not provided in the paper but calculated using the formula18. 216 B) Coovadia et al (2012), Alvarez-Uria et al (2012), Thomas et al (2011) and Kilewo et al (2009) excluded positive children at 6 weeks. Jamieson et al (2012) excluded transmission at 2 weeks and Marazzi et al (2009) excluded 4 weeks. Jamieson et al (2012), Thomas et al (2011) and Kilewo et al (2009) did not provide rate of transmission, but rate was calculated considering number of children at risk provided in the paper 9 217 Two studies reported the number of infections at six months but not the number of children at 218 risk. Thakwalakwa et al [21] reported three infections before six months (of 280 births but no 219 information provided on loss to follow up and deaths); Giuliano et al [28] reported four 220 transmissions before six months, 288 children were included in this study, but the number of 221 children at risk of transmission at six months was unclear. 222 223 Rate of transmission assessed after six months of age 224 Of the seven studies providing information on transmission rates at age 12 months, five 225 reported overall HIV transmission rates (including peripartum) [5,22-24,28] and two reported 226 postnatal transmission rates [11,19] (Figure 3). The pooled estimates showed an overall rate 227 of transmission at 12 months of 4.2% (95% CI 2.97%-5.5%); and a postnatal transmission 228 rate of 2.93% (95%CI 0.68%-5.18%) (Figure 3). Heterogeneity was higher in the postnatal 229 transmission (I2 71.2%) than in the overall HIV transmission group (I2 39.9%). The postnatal 230 pooled estimates included only two studies, one in which mothers initiated ART from first 231 antenatal visit, and the other in which ART was provided from 30 weeks. Rate (95%CI) Study (Information) 232 % Weight 1 233 Giuliano et al, 2013 (EBF:73%; N=288) Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012 (N=127) Thomas et al, 2011 234 235 19.9 3.7 (2.0, 6.7) 18.3 (EBF:89%; N=427) 5.7 (4.0, 8.3) 20.4 Marazzi et al, 2009 (EBF:100%; N=283) 2.8 (1.4, 5.5) 21.6 Kilewo et al, 2009 (EBF:80%; N=368) 5.8(3.6, 8.0) 19.9 4.2 (3.0,5.5) 100.0 Overall (I-squared=39.9%, p=0.155) 236 3.2 (1.0,5.4) 2 237 Coovadia et al, 2012 (EBF:95%; N=171) 1.7(0.3, 4.1) 46.7 Jamieson et al, 2012 (EBF:89%; N=662) 4.0(3.0, 6.0) 53.4 2.9 (0.7,5.2) 100.0 Overall (I-squared=71.2%, p=0.063) 238 NOTE: Weights are from random effect analysis 239 240 241 Figure 3. Transmission rates at 12 months of age, with 95% confidence intervals, in children who were breastfed and whose mothers were on ART. Group 1: Overall transmission. Group 2: Postnatal transmission between 4/6 weeks and 12 months of age Note: 242 Coovadia et al (2012) excluded children HIV positive at 6 weeks. Jamieson et al (2012) excluded transmission at 2 weeks. Marazzi et al (2009) did not provide the confidence interval, which was thus calculated using the formula18. 243 10 244 Peltier et al [25] provided an overall transmission rate at nine months of age, including 245 perinatal transmission, with no transmission after cessation of breastfeeding. The total 246 number of children at risk was 227, with four infections (only 1 after 6 weeks). The overall 247 estimated rate of transmission at nine months was 1.8% (95%CI 0.7%-4.8%). Only 15 248 mothers were reported to have mixed fed their children, and none of these were infected. 249 Ngoma et al [26] was the only study which reported an estimated overall (including 250 peripartum) rate of transmission at 18 months, with lifelong ART provided for all mothers. 251 Nine transmissions were reported, with an overall transmission rate of 4.1% (95% CI 2.2%- 252 7.6%; N=219). 253 Additional information regarding feeding 254 No study provided a transmission rate according to infant feeding modality (EBF and MF); in 255 all studies mothers were recommended to (and assumed to have) exclusively breastfed their 256 infants for six months. Alvarez-Uria et al [5] noted that one of the infected children was 257 mixed-fed, but did not provide the rate of transmission by feeding modality. 258 259 Additional information was asked from each study regarding how feeding type was assessed 260 and supported during the study, with data also extracted from studies (Table 1). 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 11 272 Table 1. Responses regarding support for exclusive breastfeeding and type of data collection Information from published papers Additional Information 273 Studies Duration of BF Frequency counselling Local of counselling Type of support Person giving support Registered nurse Type of data collection Ngoma et al, 2015 12 months Giuliano et al, 2013 4.5 months and wean over a 1.5 months 4 wks post enrolment, 36 weeks gestation, at birth, 2 weeks, 6 weeks, 3,6,9,12,15, 18 and 24 months Every 2 wks in first 2 months pregnancy and every month until BF cessation 2 week was home visit, others facility based. Facility-based Text message reminders, food and transportation stipends Counselling Skilled personnel in nutrition practices Self-report Jamieson et al, 2012 6 months 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 21, 24, 28 weeks postpartum - Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012 Coovadia et al, 2012 6 months Not reported Not reported Counselling and breast-milk replacement food in case of BF cessation Not reported Not reported Not reported 6 months 7d, 2,5,6,8wks, 3,6,9,12,18 mo Not reported Not reported Not reported Self-report Thomas et al, 2011 6 months Not reported Not reported Not reported Not reported Marazzi et al, 2009 6 months Weekly before delivery, and after delivery: 2,6,10, 14 weeks and 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 24 months Not reported Not reported nutritionists Clinical data Kilewo et al, 2009 6 months 1, 3, 6 weeks and 3, 4, 5, 6 months Facility based Counselling and nutritional supplement for pregnant and lactating mothers counselling Not reported Not reported interview Interview by standard questionnaire 274 275 276 12 277 GRADE PROFILE 278 An evaluation of the quality of the studies considered in this analysis is given in 279 Supplementary Table 3. The assessment of quality was based on study limitations/risk of bias 280 as per the evidence from the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (Supplementary Table 4). We also 281 considered inconsistency, indirectness and publication bias. All studies are rated very low 282 quality. Initially, all studies were scored low quality due to being observational and were 283 downgraded for indirectness because their research areas were not directly in line with the 284 question. Where a pooled analysis was undertaken and a pooled estimate provided, studies 285 were further downgraded for inconsistency if the heterogeneity was not explained. In all 286 groups of studies there was at least one study with a risk of bias pertaining to lack of detailed 287 information on feeding leading to further downgrading as did the substantial heterogeneity in 288 transmission rate estimates between studies. 289 290 Discussion 291 This systematic review is the first synthesis of the HIV transmission risk in infants of HIV- 292 positive mothers including mothers receiving lifelong ART. The review provides evidence 293 for the low postnatal HIV transmission risk to infants in the presence of maternal ART. We 294 found a pooled estimated rate of overall transmission by age six months of 3.5% and a pooled 295 postnatal transmission rate by six months of age of 1.1% in women who were on ART from 296 early-mid pregnancy and who were recommended to breastfed their infants for six months. 297 The pooled estimate for postnatal transmission at 12 months of age was 3.0%; only one study 298 provided an estimated rate of transmission at 18 months, in women on lifelong ART, of 4.1%. 299 300 Our estimates compare favourably against estimates from studies in the pre-ART era, ranging 301 from 15% overall transmission at six weeks [30] and 32% at six months [31,32], highlighting 302 the efficacy of ART in reducing transmission risk following improved PMTCT services, 303 adherence to ART, and early initiation during pregnancy [2, 33]. 304 305 Exclusive breastfeeding to six months of life is recommended for all infants because of its 306 major effect on reducing infant and child mortality and improving long term health outcomes. 307 In the context of postnatal HIV transmission and before WHO guidelines recommending 308 ART to reduce postnatal transmission, refraining from mixed-feeding in these first six 309 months was also considered important [12, 34] because of the associated increased risk of 13 310 postnatal transmission when compared to EBF [35-37]. However, we were unable to estimate 311 the rate of transmission associated with MF, since no study provided this data. Most studies 312 included in this review assumed that mothers exclusively breastfed up to six months as 313 recommended [6], however it has been reported by others that mixed feeding before six 314 months of age is common. [12,38]. Kilewo et al found that although at 16 weeks 80% of 315 mothers were still exclusively breastfeeding, this was only 51% at 24 weeks [22]; in the 316 Kisumo Breastfeeding Study exclusive breastfeeding at 5 months was 80.4% [39]. EBF was 317 found to be more common in women of higher parity, and less common in those not living 318 with the child’s father [40]. In a qualitative study in Nigeria investigating reasons for mixed 319 feeding, 42.8% of mothers reported pressure from family members relating to infant feeding 320 practice, with 28.5% following cultural practices, offering water and herbal medications to 321 the child [41]. 322 In the included studies, women were recommended to exclusively breastfeed their infants for 323 six months in line with WHO guidelines, but there was no specific support provided for 324 mothers to exclusively breastfeed, and studies did not collect detailed information on infant 325 feeding modality. As such, the findings from this review thus reflect real-life situations. 326 However, the reports from two studies included in this systematic analysis shows that support 327 may increase adherence to exclusive breastfeeding. Marazzi et al offered nutritional 328 supplements to pregnant and lactating women, and at each clinic visit, EBF counselling could 329 be emphasised [23]; Ngoma et al sent text messages and offered food and transportation 330 stipends to mothers participating in the study [26]. Both studies had very high adherence to 331 EBF, with more than 90% of mothers reportedly exclusively breastfeeding during the first six 332 months. 333 WHO 2010 guidelines on HIV and infant feeding recommend exclusive breastfeeding in the 334 first 6 months of life primarily to protect against other non-HIV infectious causes of infant 335 mortality. Based on the available evidence at that time, ART was assumed to be effective at 336 reducing HIV transmission risk in this period. According to WHO guidelines, after six 337 months, appropriate complementary food needs to be introduced while breastfeeding 338 continues, although currently HIV-positive women are recommended to continue 339 breastfeeding for one year under the cover of ART [6,8]. Only two studies followed the 340 recommendation for HIV-positive women, with breastfeeding up to 12 months postpartum 341 and lifelong ART to mothers [26,27]. In the other studies mothers no longer received ART 342 after cessation of breastfeeding at six months, but there were reported transmissions beyond 14 343 six months due to continued breastfeeding in the absence of ART cover [19, 28]. Despite 344 providing lifelong ART and recommending breastfeeding up to 12 months, Ngoma et al [26] , 345 reported high differences between transmission rate at six months (1.4%) and 18 months 346 (4.1%) due to poor adherence among mothers at taking ART. They report that 11.4% of 347 women who missed a dispensary visit transmitted HIV to the child, compared with 2.7% 348 women who did not miss any visit (p=0.038). On the other hand, the BREICHT study 349 conducted in Malawi [21] found a very similar rate of transmission between six and 12 350 months (three infections before six months, four infections at 12 months, N=280). This result 351 could be attributed to high adherence to ART when it was given together with food 352 supplements for the child after 6 months, a strategy that proved to be feasible and effective 353 for improving retention in care. 354 This review highlighted the considerable clinical and methodological heterogeneity in the 355 studies due to differences in the time of ART initiation during pregnancy, the recommended 356 duration of breastfeeding, the age at which infection in the infant was assessed, the details on 357 infant feeding modality and the definition of postnatal transmission. In addition, we 358 calculated transmission rates and/or confidence intervals, where these were not provided by 359 all studies, which contributed to the low quality of evidence for the estimated risk associated 360 with continued breastfeeding between six and 12 months post-delivery. However, this 361 systematic review and meta-analysis which includes studies published between 2005 and 362 2015 informs our understanding of the risk of transmission in the postnatal period in women 363 who receive ART. Although statistical inconsistency was considerable, the trends were in the 364 appropriate direction, and the findings provide evidence for public health programmes as well 365 as for new MTCT guidelines. 366 Conclusion 367 The findings of this review demonstrate the very low risk of postnatal transmission during 368 breastfeeding in women who are on ART lower risk of postnatal transmission when women 369 are on ART, despite considerable heterogeneity in pooled analyses. The overall quality of this 370 evidence is low. The new WHO guidelines on initiation of ART for all HIV-positive people 371 immediately upon the diagnosis of HIV infection will expand ART coverage among HIV- 372 positive pregnant and breastfeeding women [13]. Our results suggest that will be important 373 to provide women with ongoing support to adhere to the WHO EBF recommendations. 374 15 375 Competing interests 376 NR is a WHO employee. NS received funding for the methodological facilitation of the 377 WHO guidelines process. MLN, SB and LC received WHO funding to carry out the 378 systematic review. There are no competing interests in this submission. 379 380 Acknowledgements 381 This systematic review was commissioned and funded by the World Health Organization. 382 The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not 383 necessarily represent the views, decisions or policies of the World Health Organization. We 384 thank Marina Giuliano, Michael Silverman and Timothy Thomas for the additional 385 information provided for this systematic review. 386 387 Author statement 388 NR and MLN conceived the idea, SB undertook the systematic review, supported by LC and 389 MLN. NS advised on methodological aspects. SB drafted the first version of the paper, LC, 390 NS, NR and MLN had substantial involvement in further drafts. All authors approve the final 391 draft for submission. 392 393 Additional Files 394 Box 1. Demonstration of search strategy for CENTRAL for the topic ‘mother-to-child- 395 transmission for HIV infected mothers receiving ART and infant feeding’. 396 Supplementary Table 1. Included papers: Descriptive information of studies providing 397 information on breastfeeding and ART 398 The table presented in word contains information about all included studies, such as: the type 399 of study, beginning/end of ART, type of child feeding, sample size, time of evaluation. 400 Supplementary Table 2. Studies excluded during full text screening and reasons for exclusion. 401 Supplementary Table 3. GRADE evidence profile 402 Grade profile includes quality assessment of each study, quality of information obtained and 403 importance, as well as information on reasons for downgrading studies. The table was used 16 404 for supporting the update of guidelines based on information provided by this systematic 405 review. 406 Supplementary Table 4. Modified Newcastle-Ottawa for assessment of HIV transmission in 407 breastfed infants whose mothers were on ART. 408 This table include information on how many stars each study received in selection or 409 outcome categories of NOS evaluation. 410 411 17 412 REFERENCES 413 414 415 416 417 1. WHO. Global health sector response to HIV, 2000-2015: focus on innovations in Africa: progress report: Geneva: World Health Organization; 2015. 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 3. UNAIDS. Countdown to Zero: Global Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections Among Children by 2015 and Keeping Their Mothers Alive, 2011-2015: Geneva: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; 2011. 2. WHO. Global update on the health sector response to HIV, 2014. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2014. 4. Newell M-L. 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Sagay AS, Ebonyi AO, Meloni ST, Musa J, Oguche S, Ekwempu CC, et al. Mother-to-Child Transmission Outcomes of HIV-Exposed Infants Followed Up in Jos North-Central Nigeria. Curr HIV Res. 2015;13(3):193-200. 28. Giuliano M, Andreotti M, Liotta G, Jere H, Sagno JB, Maulidi M, et al. Maternal antiretroviral therapy for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Malawi: maternal and infant outcomes two years after delivery. PLoS One. 2013;8(7):e68950. 29. Kilewo C, Karlsson K, Ngarina M, Massawe A, Lyamuya E, Swai A, et al. Prevention of Motherto-Child Transmission of HIV-1 Through Breastfeeding by Treating Mothers With Triple Antiretroviral Therapy in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: The Mitra Plus Study. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2009;52(3):406-416. 30. Leroy V, Sakarovitch C, Cortina-Borja M, McIntyre J, Coovadia H, Dabis F, et al. Is there a difference in the efficacy of peripartum antiretroviral regimens in reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Africa? AIDS. 2005;19(16):1865-1875. 31. Read JS: Late postnatal transmission of HIV-1 in breast-fed children: an individual patient data meta-analysis. J Infect Dis. 2004; 189(12):2154-2166. 32. Zijenah LS, Moulton LH, Iliff P, Nathoo K, Munjoma MW, Mutasa K, et al. Timing of motherto-child transmission of HIV-1 and infant mortality in the first 6 months of life in Harare, Zimbabwe. AIDS. 2004;18(2):273-280. 33. Finocchario-Kessler S, Clark KF, Khamadi S, Gautney BJ, Okoth V, Goggin K, et al. Progress Toward Eliminating Mother to Child Transmission of HIV in Kenya: Review of Treatment Guideline Uptake and Pediatric Transmission at Four Government Hospitals Between 2010 and 2012. AIDS Behav. 2015:1-10. 34. Becquet R, Bequet L, Ekouevi DK, Viho I, Sakarovitch C, Fassinou P, et al. Two-year morbiditymortality and alternatives to prolonged breast-feeding among children born to HIV-infected mothers in Cote d'Ivoire. PLoS Med. 2007; 4(1):e17. 35. Muluye D, Woldeyohannes D, Gizachew M, Tiruneh M. Infant feeding practice and associated factors of HIV positive mothers attending prevention of mother to child transmission and antiretroviral therapy clinics in Gondar Town health institutions, Northwest Ethiopia. BMC Public Health. 2012;12:240. 36. Becquet R, Ekouevi DK, Menan H, Amani-Bosse C, Bequet L, Viho I, et al. Early mixed feeding and breastfeeding beyond 6 months increase the risk of postnatal HIV transmission: ANRS 1201/1202 Ditrame Plus, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire. Prev Med. 2008;47(1):27-33. 37. Becquet R, Bland R, Leroy V, Rollins NC, Ekouevi DK, Coutsoudis A, et al. Duration, pattern of breastfeeding and postnatal transmission of HIV: pooled analysis of individual data from West and South African cohorts. PloS one. 2009;4(10):e7397. 38. Bland RM, Little KE, Coovadia HM, Coutsoudis A, Rollins NC, Newell M-L. Intervention to promote exclusive breast-feeding for the first 6 months of life in a high HIV prevalence area. AIDS. 2008;22(7):883-891. 20 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 39. Okafor I, Ugwu E, Obi S, Odugu B. Virtual Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Mothers on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Enugu, SouthEastern Nigeria. Ann Med Health Sci Res. 2014;4(4):615-618. 40. Okanda JO, Borkowf CB, Girde S, Thomas TK, Lecher SL. Exclusive breastfeeding among women taking HAART for PMTCT of HIV-1 in the Kisumu Breastfeeding Study. BMC pediatrics. 2014;14:280. 41. Lawani LO, Onyebuchi AK, Iyoke CA, Onoh RC, Nkwo PO. The challenges of adherence to infant feeding choices in prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV infections in South East Nigeria. Patient Prefer Adherence. 2014;8:377-381. 573 21 Supplementary Files Box 1.: Demonstration of search strategy for CENTRAL for the topic ‘mother-to-child-transmission for HIV infected mothers receiving ART and infant feeding’ 1 Maternal 2 mother 3 #1 OR #2 4 Antiretroviral therapy 5 Antiretroviral* 6 ART 7 HAART 8 #4 OR #5 OR #6 OR #7 9 HIV 10 Transmi* 11 Infec* 12 #9 OR #10 OR #11 13 Breastfeeding 14 Postnatal 15 Breast* 16 Feed* 17 Mixed 18 #13 OR #14 OR #15 OR #16 OR #17 19 #3 AND #8 AND #12 AND #18 22 Supplementary Table 1. Included papers: Descriptive information of studies providing information on breastfeeding and ART Cohorts embedded on RCTs First Author/Study Place of study Randomised for ARV Other Feeding Beginning/ end ART Breastfeeding duration 6 mo 12 mo 1527 Time evaluation N Extracted information Transmission 6 Exclude peripartum mo Given Postnatal: excluding 6 weeks HPTN046 trial (Fowler, 2014; Coovadia, 2012) South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe ART or not Infant NVP or not All BF From first antenatal visit/ 6 mo Jamieson, 2012 Antenatal clinics in Malawi ART† or infant NVP Nutritional intervention Majority BF 30wks or less/ 6 mo 6 mo 12 mo 849 Calculated Kisumu Breastfeeding Study (Okanda, 2014; Thomas, 2011) Thakwalakwaa, 2014 Kenya (antenatal clinics) ART All BF 34 wks/ 6 mo‡ 6 months 6 weeks, 6, 12 mo 502 Given Malawi (Thyolo District Hospital) Only ART All BF From first antenatal visit/ lifelong 6 mo 12 mo 248 Not given Gives only number of infected children with no denominator 4.5 mo 12 mo 300 Not given Gives only number of infected children with no denominator 6 mo 6 and 12 mo 318 Given 6 mo 9 mo 532 Not given Nutritional intervention DREAM study (Giuliano, 2013; Palombi, 2007) Malawi (two ante natal clinics) ART* Alvarez-Uriaa, 2012 India (3 hospitals in Antapur) ART Peltiera, 2009 Rwanda (four government-run health facilities) Mozambique ART Observational studies 1st tremester and lifelong (CD4+<350) or week 25/ 6 mo or end BF BF and RF From first antenatal visit / 6 mo (BF), post labour (NBF) BF and RF 28 wks / 7 mo‡ ART All BF 15 wks/ 6 mo‡ 5 mo 6 weeks, 6 and 12 mo 341 Given Tanzania (Dar es Salam) Nigeria Zambia ART All BF 34 wks/ 6 mo 6 mo 441 Given ART ART All BF All BF lifelong 14 wks-lifelong 1 year 1 year 6 weeks, 6, 9, 12, 18 mo 18 mo 6 weeks, 6 and 12 mo 856 231 Calculated Given Marazzi, 2009 Kilewo, 2009 Sagay, 2015 Ngoma, 2015 All BF Both measures. Provides number of infected children before and after 2 weeks Include peripartum. Postnatal calculated. Exclude 6 weeks Provides Overall transmission including peripartum Both, provides rates including and excluding peripartum (exclude 4 wks) Include peripartum. Postnatal calculated. Include peripartum. Include peripartum 23 BF= Breastfeeding; RF= Replacement feeding a Studies performed in rural environment †Mothers with clinical stage 4 or CD4 <200 cells/mm3 were excluded ‡Mothers with CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 or stage III or IVdisease remained on ART throughout the study, and those who subsequently met the criteria after stopping ARVs were restarted, or when CD4 cell counts were ≤350 cells/mm3 (Peltier, Marazzi) *Mothers on ART based on disease progression or low CD4+ count 24 Supplementary Table 2. Full-text articles excluded from systematic review with reasons No. 1. Reference Anoje C, Aiyenigba B, Suzuki C, Badru T, Akpoigbe K, Odo M, et al. Reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV: findings from an early infant diagnosis program in south-south region of Nigeria. BMC Public Health. 2012;12:184. 2. Becquet R, Bequet L, Ekouevi DK, Viho I, Sakarovitch C, Fassinou P, et al. Two-year morbidity-mortality and alternatives to prolonged breast-feeding among children born to HIV-infected mothers in Cote d'Ivoire. PLoS Med. 2007;4(1):e17 Becquet R, Ekouevi DK, Menan H, Amani-Bosse C, Bequet L, Viho I, et al. Early mixed feeding and breastfeeding beyond 6 months increase the risk of postnatal HIV transmission: ANRS 1201/1202 Ditrame Plus, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire. Preventive Medicine. 2008;47(1):27-33. Leroy V, Ekouevi DK, Becquet R, Viho I, Dequae-Merchadou L, Tonwe-Gold B, et al. 18-month effectiveness of short-course antiretroviral regimens combined with alternatives to breastfeeding to prevent HIV mother-to-child transmission. PLoS One. 2008;3(2):e1645 Binagwaho A, Pegurri E, Drobac PC, Mugwaneza P, Stulac SN, Wagner CM, et al. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral regimens and feeding options in Rwanda. PLoS One. 2013;8(2):e54180 Chi BH, Musonda P, Lembalemba MK, Chintu NT, Gartland MG, Mulenga SN, et al. Universal combination antiretroviral regimens to prevent mother-tochild transmission of HIV in rural Zambia: a two-round cross-sectional study. Bulletin of the World Health Organization. 2014;92(8):582-92. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Derebe G, Biadgilign S, Trivelli M, Hundessa G, Robi ZD, Gebre-Mariam M, et al. Determinant and outcome of early diagnosis of HIV infection among HIVexposed infants in southwest Ethiopia. BMC research notes. 2014;7:309 Goga AE, Dinh TH, Jackson DJ, Lombard C, Delaney KP. First populationlevel effectiveness evaluation of a national programme to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child, South Africa. 2015;69(3):240-8 Gray GE, Urban M, Chersich MF, Bolton C, van Niekerk R, Violari A, et al. A randomized trial of two postexposure prophylaxis regimens to reduce motherto-child HIV-1 transmission in infants of untreated mothers. AIDS (London, England). 2005;19(12):1289-97 Kagaayi J, Gray RH, Brahmbhatt H, Kigozi G, Nalugoda F, Wabwire-Mangen F, et al. Survival of infants born to HIV-positive mothers, by feeding modality, in Rakai, Uganda. PLoS One. 2008;3(12):e387 Kouanda S, Tougri H, Cisse M, Simpore J, Pietra V, Doulougou B, et al. Impact of maternal HAART on the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: results of an 18-month follow-up study in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. AIDS care. 2010;22(7):843-50 Kuhn L, Aldrovandi GM, Sinkala M, Kankasa C, Semrau K, Kasonde P, et al. Differential effects of early weaning for HIV-free survival of children born to HIV-infected mothers by severity of maternal disease. PLoS One. 2009;4(6):e6059 Magoni M, Bassani L, Okong P, Kituuka P, Germinario EP, Giuliano M, et al. Mode of infant feeding and HIV infection in children in a program for prevention of mother-to-child transmission in Uganda. AIDS (London, England). 2005;19(4):433-7 Mandala J, Moyo T, Torpey K, Weaver M, Suzuki C, Dirks R, et al. Use of service data to inform pediatric HIV-free survival following prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs in rural Malawi. Bmc Public Health. 2012;12 Mwendo EM, Mtuy TB, Renju J, Rutherford GW, Nondi J, Sichalwe AW, et al. Effectiveness of prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programmes in Kilimanjaro region, northern Tanzania. Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH. 2014;19(3):267-74 Nagot N, Kankasa C, Meda N, Hofmeyr J, Nikodem C, Tumwine JK, et al. Reason for Exclusion The study combines both groups of women on different types of ARV, and do not provide infant HIV free survival when mothers are breastfeeding and on cART. Mothers were not on cART, but on dual ARV with single dose NVP on labour. Mothers are on short course cART, and study does not provide rates of HIV free survival. Focused on costs. Provides only total HIV free survival, not total number of mothers on cART or infection only by cART. No rates for breastfeeding and cART together were provided. It is very early diagnosis (4-6 weeks). Mothers were not on cART, but on dual ARV. Mothers on different type of antiretroviral therapy. Not possible to identify HIV transmission and death by mothers on cART. Only 8 mothers on cART were breastfeeding on the first exam. Mothers received single-dose nevirapine. Mother receiving short course cART. Mothers on single dose NVP. Almost 50% of losses on the first PCR test, and only 7 children completed 18 months follow-up. Mothers included on the study were 25 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. Lopinavir/Ritonavir versus Lamivudine peri-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV-1 transmission by breastfeeding: the PROMISE-PEP trial Protocol ANRS 12174. BMC infectious diseases. 2012;12:246 Nlend AEN, Ekani BB. Preliminary assessment of breastfeeding practices in HIV 1-infected mothers (prior to weaning) under the Djoungolo programme on the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Journal of tropical pediatrics. 2010;56(6):436-9 Nyandiko WM, Otieno-Nyunya B, Musick B, Bucher-Yiannoutsos S, Akhaabi P, Lane K, et al. Outcomes of HIV-exposed children in western Kenya: efficacy of prevention of mother to child transmission in a resource-constrained setting. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999). 2010;54(1):42-50 Omer SB. Twelve-month follow-up of Six Week Extended Dose Nevirapine randomized controlled trials: differential impact of extended-dose nevirapine on mother-to-child transmission and infant death by maternal CD4 cell count. AIDS (London, England). 2011;25(6):767-76 Read JS. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV: antiretroviral strategies. Clinics in perinatology. 2010;37(4):765-76. Seth A, Chandra J, Gupta R, Kumar P, Aggarwal V, Dutta A. Outcome of HIV exposed infants: experience of a regional pediatric center for HIV in North India. Indian J Pediatr. 2012;79(2):188-93 Shah M, Johns B, Abimiku Al, Walker DG. Cost-effectiveness of new WHO recommendations for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in a resource-limited setting. AIDS. 2011;25(8):1093-102. Simpore J, Pietra V, Pignatelli S, Karou D, Nadembega WM, Ilboudo D, et al. Effective program against mother-to-child transmission of HIV at Saint Camille Medical Centre in Burkina Faso. Journal of medical virology. 2007;79(7):873-9 Stringer JS, Stinson K, Tih PM, Giganti MJ, Ekouevi DK, Creek TL, et al. Measuring coverage in MNCH: population HIV-free survival among children under two years of age in four African countries. PLoS Med. 2013;10(5). Taha TE, Li Q, Hoover DR, Mipando L, Nkanaunena K, Thigpen MC, et al. Postexposure Prophylaxis of Breastfeeding HIV-Exposed Infants With Antiretroviral Drugs to Age 14 Weeks: Updated Efficacy Results of the PEPIMalawi Trial. Jaids-Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 2011;57(4):319-25 Torpey K, Kabaso M, Weaver MA, Kasonde P, Mukonka V, Bweupe M, et al. Infant feeding options, other nonchemoprophylactic factors, and mother-tochild transmission of HIV in Zambia. Journal of the International Association of Physicians in AIDS Care (Chicago, Ill : 2002). 2012;11(1):26-33 Torpey K, Kasonde P, Kabaso M, Weaver MA, Bryan G, Mukonka V, et al. Reducing pediatric HIV infection: estimating mother-to-child transmission rates in a program setting in Zambia. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999). 2010;54(4):415-22 van Lettow M, Bedell R, Landes M, Gawa L, Gatto S, Mayuni I, et al. Uptake and outcomes of a prevention-of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) program in Zomba district, Malawi. BMC Public Health. 2011;11:426 not eligible for cART. The paper focus on breastfeeding, mastitis and transmission, and assessment of transmission done at 13 weeks. Not possible to extract transmission and death for cART and BF together. Most mothers were not on cART. Very small number of mothers on cART. Very small number of mothers on cART, and no information provided on whether those mothers were breastfeeding or not. Study based on models of % of adherence in Nigeria. Very small number of breastfed children. Only provide HIV free survival for mothers on cART or dual ARV together. Mothers not on cART, comparison among dual therapy No data for mother on cART and breastfeeding together Very small number of mothers on cART 26 Supplementary Table 3. GRADE evidence profile Question: HIV transmission in breastfed infants of mothers on ART 1 Setting: Zambia, Nigeria, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe, India, Kenya, Mozambique Quality assessment № of patients № of Effect Other Study design Risk of bias Inconsistency Indirectness Imprecision studies [intervention] Rate of transmission % (95% CI) 3175 Rate 3.54 (1.15- 5.93) Quality Importance ⨁◯◯◯ IMPORTANT considerations Overall transmission at 6 months (Perinatal and Postnatal transmission) 6 observational very studies2 serious very serious 4 serious 5 not serious none 3 VERY LOW 2 3 4 5 Postnatal transmission at 6 months 6 observational very studies 6 serious very serious 8 serious 9 not serious none 2109 7 rate 1.08 ⨁◯◯◯ (0.32 to 1.85) VERY LOW 7 8 9 rate 1.8 ⨁◯◯◯ (0.7 to 4.8) LOW11 12 CRITICAL HIV transmission at 9 months 1 observational studies10 serious11 not serious serious 12 not serious none 532 CRITICAL 27 Quality assessment № of patients № of Effect Quality Other Study design Risk of bias Inconsistency Indirectness Imprecision studies Importance [intervention] Rate of transmission % (95% CI) 1493 rate 4.23 ⨁◯◯◯ (2.97 to 5.49) VERY LOW 14 15 16 rate 2.93 ⨁◯◯◯ considerations Overall transmission at 12 months - including peripartum transmission 5 observational serious 14 serious 15 studies 13 not serious not serious none 16 CRITICAL Postnatal transmission at 12 months (excluding peripartum transmission) 2 observational serious 18 serious 19 serious 20 not serious none 833 studies 17 (0.68 to 5.18) VERY LOW CRITICAL 18 19 20 Postnatal transmission at 18 months (lifelong ART, including all transmission) 1 observational not serious 22 not serious serious23 not serious none studies 21 1. 219 rate 4.1 ⨁◯◯◯ (2.2 to 7.6 ) LOW 23 CRITICAL There was no comparison that was in line with the PICO question. In all studies the recommendation was exclusive breastfeeding for the first six months of life and the majority of mothers breastfed their children. Transmission according to mixed feeding was not provided by any of the studies. 28 2. Studies included: Ngoma et al, 2015; Sagay et al, 2015; Jamieson et al, 2012; Thomas et al, 2011; Marazzi et al, 2009 and Kilewo et al, 2009. Of these, Jamieson et al (2012) and Thomas et al (2011) were cohorts embedded in randomized control trials, while Ngoma et al, (2015), Sagay et al (2015), Marazzi et al (2009) and Kilewo et al (2009) were cohort studies 3. Risk of bias: We downgraded once due to potential selection bias for lack of detailed feeding history in Sagay et al, 2015 and Marazzi et al. 2009. Adherence to ART was not provided in Sagay et al, 2015; Marazzi et al, 2009 and Kilewo et al, 2009. Sagay et al, 2015 and Jamieson et al, 2012 did not provide a rate of transmission, but the rate of transmission was calculated from the number of children at risk provided in the paper. Sagay et al, 2015 is a retrospective study, and only one denominator was provided for all rates provided in the study. Ngoma et al, 2015 and Marazzi et al, 2009 did not provide confidence interval, which was calculated for both studies according to the formula provided in Appendix 6. 4. Inconsistency: We downgraded twice due to substantial heterogeneity in rates of transmission provided or calculated. Rates ranged from 0.7% (95% CI 0.20%-1.20%) in Sagay et al, 2015, which was a retrospective cohort, to 7.9% (95% CI 6.2%-9.90%) in Jamieson et al, 2012 5. Indirectness: We downgraded once as the studies’ questions were not in line with the PICO question and covered different types of additional interventions. In Ngoma et al, 2015, Sagay et al, 2015, Marazzi et al. 2009 and Kilewo et al. 2009 the only intervention was ART. Jamieson et al. 2012 compared transmission rates in children whose mothers were on ART, infants on NVP and a control group and the three groups were further divided into those who were on a maternal nutrition supplement and those that were not. 6. Studies included were: Coovadia et al, 2012, Jamieson et al, 2012, Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012, Thomas et al, 2011, Marazzi et al, 2009 and Kilewo et al, 2009. Coovadia et al (2012), Jamieson et al (2012) and Thomas et al (2011) were cohorts embedded in randomized control trials, while Alvarez-Uria et al (2012), Marazzi et al (2009) and Kilewo et al (2009) were cohort studies. 7. Risk of bias: We downgraded once due to potential selection bias for lack of detailed feeding history in Marazzi et al, 2009. Adherence to ART was not provided in Marazzi et al, 2009 and Kilewo et al, 2009. There were some differences regarding age in weeks as endpoint considered perinatal transmission. Coovadia et al (2012), Alvarez-Uria et al (2012), Thomas et al (2011) and Kilewo et al (2009) excluded children positive at 6 weeks, Jamieson et al (2012) excluded at 2 weeks and Marazzi et al (2009) at 4 weeks. Jamieson et al (2012), Thomas et al (2011) and Kilewo et al (2009) did not provide a rate of transmission, but the rate was calculated based on the number of children at risk provided in the paper. In Marazzi et al (2009) a confidence interval was not provided but was calculated using the formula in Appendix 6. 8. Inconsistency: We downgraded due to substantial heterogeneity in rates of transmission provided or calculated (I2=66.4%). Rates ranged from 0.24% (95% CI 0.0% to 1.40%) in Coovadia et al, 2012 to 3.10% (95% CI 1.20% to 7.80%) in Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012, the latter study had a very wide confidence interval due to the small sample of 127. 9. Indirectness: We downgraded once as the studies’ questions were not in line with the PICO question and covered different types of co-interventions. In Alvarez-Uria et al., 2012, Marazzi et al. 2009 and Kilewo et al. 2009 the only intervention was ART. Jamieson et al. 2012 compared HIV-free survival in children whose mothers were on ART, infants on NVP and a control group and the three groups 29 were further divided into those who were on a maternal nutrition supplement and those that were not. In Coovadia et al, infants were randomized to receive extended Nevirapine or placebo until 6 months of life. In Alvarez-Uria et al. 2012 all women were on ART but newborns were also given prophylaxis, the study also compared transmission rates between infants being breastfed and receiving formula feeding. In Thomas et al. 2011 all mothers were on ART but all infants received a single dose of NVP within 72 hours. Studies also varied with regard to initiation of maternal ART. 10. Single study included: Peltier et al, 2009, which was a cohort study. 11. Risk of bias: We downgraded once due to potential selection bias since this was a non-randomized intervention cohort in which the mother could choose the type of feeding for the infant. Only mothers with low CD4 count (<350 cells/µl or WHO clinical stage 4) were eligible for lifelong ART. The study had good adherence to ART and ascertainment of feeding. Only 15 mothers were reported to be mixed feeding their children, but no children were infected. 12. Indirectness: We downgraded once as the study research question was not in line with PICO questions and although the study compares breastfeeding and formula feeding, it did not study the effect of ART by feeding. 13. Studies included were: Giuliano et al, 2013, Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012, Thomas et al, 2011, Marazzi et al, 2009 and Kilewo et al, 2009. Thomas et al (2011) was a cohort embedded in a randomized control trial, while Giuliano et al (2013), Alvarez-Uria et al (2012), Marazzi et al (2009) and Kilewo et al (2009) were cohort studies 14. Risk of bias: We downgraded once due to potential selection bias for lack of detailed information regarding feeding in Marazzi et al, 2009. 15. Inconsistency: We downgraded once due to heterogeneity in rates of transmission (I2 =39.9%), which varied from 2.8% (95%CI 1.40% to 5.50%) in Marazzi et al, 2009 to 5.80% (95% CI 3.60% to 8.00%) in Kilewo et al, 2009. 16. Indirectness: We downgraded once as the studies’ research questions were not in line with PICO questions and covered different types of co-interventions. In Giuliano et al, 2013, Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012, Marazzi et al. 2009 and Kilewo et al. 2009 the only intervention was ART. Giuliano et al (2013) offered lifelong ART for mothers with low CD4 count. In Alvarez-Uria et al. 2012 all women were on ART but newborns were also given prophylaxis. In Thomas et al. 2011 all mothers were on ART but all infants received a single dose of NVP within 72 hours. Studies also varied with regard to initiation of maternal ART. 17. Studies include were: Coovadia et al, 2012 and Jamieson et al, 2012. Both studies were cohorts embedded in a randomized control trial. 18. Risk of bias: We downgraded once due to potential selection bias for lack of detail of feeding practices and adherence to ART in Coovadia et al, 2012. Jamieson et al, 2012 did not provide rate of transmission. The studies also varied in the age in weeks as endpoint for peripartum transmission, Coovadia et al, 2012 excluded infants identified as infected at 6 weeks and Jamieson et al, 2012 at 2 weeks. 30 19. Inconsistency: We downgraded twice due to high heterogeneity in the pooled estimate (I2= 71.2%), with rates varying from 1.70% (95% CI 0.30% to 4.10%) in Coovadia et al, 2012 and 4.0% (95%Ci 1.94% to 4.29%) in Jamieson et al, 2012.. 20. Indirectness: We downgraded once because the studies’ research question was not in line with the PICO question and covered different types of co-interventions. . In Coovadia et al. 2012, infants were randomised to receive either extended Nevirapine prophylaxis or placebo until 6 months or until breastfeeding cessation. Jamieson et al, 2012 compared HIV-free survival in children whose mothers were on ART, infants on NVP and a control group and the three groups were further divided into those who were on a maternal nutrition supplement and those that were not. 21. Single study included: Ngoma et al, 2015. 22. Risk of bias: The study was not downgraded because the study had high adherence to ART, all mothers were receiving lifelong ART, and feeding was well-evaluated. 23. Indirectness: We downgraded once as the study’s research questions were not in line with the PICO question, and although all mothers were on lifelong ART, and ascertainment of ART and breastfeeding were adequate, outcome was not stratified by feeding, and the number of infants who were mixed fed was not provided. 31 1 2 Supplementary Table 4. Modified Newcastle-Ottawa for assessment of HIV transmission in breastfed infants whose mothers were on ART Author Country Selection Outcome Ngoma et al, 2015 Zambia ***** ** Sagay et al, 2015 Nigeria *** ** Thakwalakwa et al, 2014 Malawi * ** Giuliano et al, 2013 ** ** ** ** Jamieson et al, 2012 Malawi South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe Malawi **** *** Alvarez-Uria et al, 2012 India ** **** Thomas et al, 2011 Kenya **** *** Marazzi et al, 2009 Mozambique ** ** Kilewo et al, 2009 Tanzania *** *** Peltier et al, 2009 Rwanda **** *** Coovadia et al, 2012 3 32
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