Statistics for Decision Making

Victory in the Kargil War – homage to those that struggled that we
may live happily!
Introduction and Motivation
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Nomesh Bolia, Asst Professor, Mech Engg
Education
 B-Tech, Mechanical Engg IIT Bombay
 PhD, Operations Research, UNC Chapel Hill
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Experience
 Asst Business Analyst, Infotech Financial Pvt Ltd
 Jr Research Fellow, TIFR
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Interests
 Research: Stochastic Modeling, Supply Chains, OR
 Others: Adventures, Trekking, Biking, Reading
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Class Intro: Name, dept-yr/hostel, Stats, why this class?
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Lectures:
 80 mins: 5.00-6.20 PM every Tuesday, Wednesday @ III, 374
 Emphasis on problem solving (numericals, proofs) in class
 Beginning of classes (10 mins): Applications, presentations by
students (5% for this), starting next week
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Practical:
 Only Weekends: Aug 25, Sep 22 (both Saturdays) – might
need to change due to unforeseen circumstances
 Will involve solving problems, making simulation models
(using software or otherwise); presenting progress on paper
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Minor I – 10 %
Minor II – 10 % (cumulative)
Major – 20 % (cumulative)
Surprise Quiz + Lab Part. + Project/paper + class participation: 60 (20+20 + 15
+5)
 4-5 surprise quizzes
 Paper presentation details below
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Paper Presentations + report (summary of paper):
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Choose papers from journals.informs.org (Interfaces, others)
Teams of 2-3
Decide papers before minor I (EOD Aug 31st), else penalty of 5%
Work on it, present it after minor 2 according to schedule to be displayed, submit
electronic report by Sun Nov 11th )
 Half a class of Presentations for each group@ end: Schedule of presentations TBA
(25 min + 10 mins Q&A)
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Paper presentations can be substituted by projects in exceptional cases, the
schedule remains the same
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Variety of sources
Probability:
 Sheldon Ross (An Introduction to Probability
Models)
 Vidyadhar Kulkarni (Modeling, Analysis, Design
and Control of Stochastic Systems)
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Simulation:
 Discrete Event Simulation by George S Fishman
 Best is to refer class notes
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Any questions?
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Class representative?
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Email ids (comma separated)
 All emails to [email protected]
 Make sure you check webmail regularly, and make
sure your name is there on the mailing list
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DTMC
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CTMC
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Simulation
 Discrete Event
 Monte Carlo