Albania between Atlantic Integration
and Regional Cooperation
Ilir KALEMAJ, Ph.D
W. Balkans (lack of)
regionalism
O From warfare to protracted enmity: Western Balkans
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caught between the “Scylla” of ethnocracy and
“Charybdis” of parochialism.
Regional integration too little, too late
Small fragmented markets, little connectivity, much
inter and intra-political enmity; Until 1999 only 1214% of Balkan trade was intra-regional (WB 2000).
Current trade 20% below the 1989 standards.
Regional identity still in search to find a replacement
for a post-Yugoslav identity.
Rule of transitocracy and lack of sustainable
regionalism.
Challenges
O Intuitive hypotheses would have predicted the
Albanian case as a likely case of rapid
democratization, given its ethnically homogeneous
population of the youngest age in Europe, coming out
of the most isolated communist regime with strong
totalitarian tendencies.
O Quite the opposite, not only Albania is facing an uphill
battle to democratize to the date, but the quality of
political representation has worsened and currently
the main debate evokes the question of
decriminalization of political elite and the justice (and
constitutional) reform.
Challenges
O Albania faced one of the most prolonged and
difficult transitions in the Western Balkans.
O The chief reasons have to do with lack of law
enforcement mechanisms, weak civil society
and unskilled bureaucracy, as well as a generally
dysfunctional and shaky economy.
O My main contention is that protracted political
warfare has been the root cause of such lack of
progress and has recently been more vocal, thus
leading to a full institutional deadlock.
Argument
O The EU’s conditionality complimenting NATO’s and U.S.
special role in the process of ameliorating the neighbor
relations in the region and moving fast ahead with
regional cooperation, hopping that it would foster a
regional identity in the near future.
O Regional cooperation has affected Albania and its
relations with the Western Balkan neighbors and what is
to be expected in the near future.
O Albania part of SEECP, CEFTA, RCC, Southeast Europe
Transport Observatory, MARRI, RAI, Adriatic-Ionian
Initiative (AII), SECI, BSEC and other regional initiatives.
O Here I argue that Atlantic rhetoric but no corresponding
actions have dominated the political agenda, while
regional efforts have been sidelined or marginalized.
THE DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS IN EASTERN
EUROPE
O Albania`s difficulty with democratization relies
especially in an absurd and contingent political
antagonism that has not been either based on
principles, neither in ideology.
O The roots of the problem is antagonism fuelled
by ad hominem attacks in order to fill the
ideological vacuum, to keep the attention away
from economic and infrastructure problems and
inability of the political class to offer long lasting
solutions.
O Communist hangover
Albania`s Transition and the Question of
Nationalism
O The data reveals that in 1992 in Albania, with
the start of democratic transition and power
shifts from the autocracy of communists to a
multi-party system, a new opportunity for
expanding nationalist propaganda opened up.
O But the discourse was suddenly ‘normalized’,
where dissent nationalist voices that visualized
a pan-Albanian federation were marginalized.
O This mostly happened because of rising
international actors` pressures that could not
tolerate such discourse in the eve of ethnic
conflict ruptures in nearby rump Yugoslavia
EU’s retreat from W. Balkans
O EU enlargement perspective in the region
seems murky in the short and medium
terms. EU enlargement fatigue + domestic
problems in the EU member states.
O Neither en block, nor regatta principle.
O US retreat and the new course of
isolationism (or simply confusion), has led to
a power vacuum that signals geopolitical
shifts and dangerous liaisons for the region.
Stability over democracy
O Local elites more interested in stability than
democracy, thus leading to “stabilitocracy”,
while the EU has largely refrained from
intervention until it is very late to prevent
local crises. U.S. much more present and
influent.
O EU seem to have lost some of its “sticks and
carrots” enforcement mechanisms that
would push ahead the reforms in these
countries.
Potential threats
O Risk of political destabilization and regional spill
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over.
Political cyber warfare and “fake news” affecting
elections.
W. Balkan states used as proxy in great power
geopolitical clashes.
Potential routes for refugees and sources of
economic emigration.
Potential routes for narcotics export toward EU
countries.
The way forward
O Brussels must engage in credible threats
vis-à-vis growing autocrats in the region.
O Incentivize the civil society and strengthen
the opposition media.
O Help in the circulation of political elites
through more efficient conditionalities.
O Stability should not come at a cost to
democracy. The two should not be seen as
exclusionary.