Online Appendix 1. Conditional regression multiples – Fama-MacBeth (1973) two-step procedure Industry Classification Benchmark (Datastream Level 3 supersector name: INDM3) Parameter E ̂ 0 Ê1 Ê 2 E ̂ 3 Ê 4 Average R-squared 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 -0.683 -0.543 -0.840 -0.576 -1.124 -0.847 -0.820 -0.722 -0.122 -0.876 -1.061 -0.680 0.634 -0.602 0.15 0.12 0.15 0.17 0.12 0.22 0.07 0.19 0.17 0.12 0.11 0.17 0.09 0.18 -4.62 -4.37 -5.79 -3.37 -9.05 -3.93 -12.27 -3.86 -0.72 -7.41 -9.92 -4.05 6.73 -3.38 0.750 0.746 0.744 0.687 0.741 0.640 0.653 0.644 0.734 0.674 0.668 0.618 0.506 0.650 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.07 0.03 21.50 25.40 23.73 28.96 20.32 17.02 39.55 14.25 29.66 29.28 25.79 18.40 6.91 22.89 0.225 0.227 0.267 0.269 0.300 0.356 0.332 0.350 0.229 0.318 0.355 0.359 0.335 0.309 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.03 6.89 9.91 9.58 10.04 10.12 9.37 26.20 8.66 10.82 14.86 17.68 12.89 6.18 10.70 -0.016 -0.042 -0.027 -0.043 0.000 0.001 -0.052 -0.061 -0.047 -0.053 -0.023 -0.060 -0.086 -0.059 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 -2.41 -7.62 -3.20 -5.53 0.03 0.04 -14.65 -6.09 -4.86 -10.47 -2.69 -7.36 -9.03 -7.82 0.413 -0.204 0.171 -0.205 0.204 0.439 -0.255 0.130 0.065 -0.147 -0.208 0.064 -0.173 -0.092 0.20 0.18 0.13 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.06 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.16 0.37 0.03 2.08 -1.10 1.28 -1.88 1.60 2.48 -4.33 0.87 0.45 -1.24 -1.69 0.41 -0.47 -2.66 0.93 0.90 0.92 0.87 0.89 0.89 0.85 0.87 0.95 0.82 0.89 0.83 0.91 0.86 Note. The estimated industry-year regression is given in Eq. (A.1) at the bottom of Online Appendix 2. The industries are as follows: (10): Automobiles & Parts; (11): Basic Resources; (12): Chemicals; (13): Construct. & Material; (14): Food & Beverage; (15): Healthcare; (16): Industrial Goods & services; (17): Media; (18): Oil & gas; (19): Personal and household goods; (20): Retail; (21): Technology; (22): Telecom; and (23): Travel & leisure. How to read the table: The first row returns the average value of each coefficient from Eq. (O.A.1), the second row shows the Fama-MacBeth (1973) standard errors and the third row provides the corresponding t statistic. 1 Online Appendix 2. Decomposing market-to-book at the firm-level Valuation component mit bit (1) mit v ˆ it ; jt v it ; ˆ jt v it ; ˆ j (2) (2) + (3) v it ; ˆ j bit Sample size (3) (4) (5) 0.04 0.04 0.58 30,446 -0.41 0.17 -0.11 0.25 -0.24 -0.25 0.22 -0.25 -0.01 0.15 0.16 -0.08 0.12 0.13 0.70 0.10 0.58 0.17 0.75 1.17 0.39 1.04 0.70 0.36 0.58 0.86 0.78 0.39 871 1,258 1,132 1,947 2,155 1,790 7,944 1,870 728 2,752 1,810 4,387 488 1,314 -0.14 -0.08 0.06 -0.01 -0.01 0.12 -0.10 0.04 -0.31 0.09 0.06 0.09 -0.04 0.22 0.39 0.58 0.56 0.62 0.59 0.47 0.68 0.42 0.60 0.65 0.25 0.48 0.59 0.65 652 1,287 1,379 5,928 7,350 577 415 1,993 121 2,118 582 1,129 2,253 4,662 Panel A: Full sample 0.62 0.00 Panel B: Distribution across industries Automobiles & Parts Basic Resources Chemicals Construct. & Material Food & Beverage Healthcare Ind. Goods & services Media Oil & gas Pers. & househ. goods Retail Technology Telecom Travel & leisure 0.29 0.26 0.47 0.42 0.51 0.92 0.61 0.80 0.69 0.51 0.73 0.78 0.90 0.52 -0.26 0.19 -0.11 0.10 -0.15 -0.24 0.14 -0.25 -0.02 0.05 0.14 -0.11 -0.24 0.08 -0.15 -0.02 0.00 0.15 -0.09 -0.02 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.09 0.01 0.04 0.35 0.04 Panel C: Distribution across countries Austria Belgium Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain Switzerland UK 0.25 0.50 0.62 0.62 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.46 0.29 0.74 0.31 0.56 0.55 0.87 -0.23 -0.09 0.05 -0.06 -0.04 0.01 -0.13 0.00 -0.47 0.02 -0.19 0.04 -0.04 0.20 0.08 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.12 0.03 0.04 0.16 0.08 0.24 0.04 0.00 0.01 Note. The decomposition of the market-to-book ratio in its fundamental and non-fundamental component follows RhodesKropf et al. (2005) and is similar to Li et al. (2011). The description here is therefore restricted. We specifically estimate the following industry-year regression and subsequently capture the point estimates: lnMVit 0 jt 1jt lnBVit 2 jt ln NIit 3 jt I(NI0) ln NIit 4 jt ln LEVit it fQ ˆ it ˆ it mit m Debt it m and mQ TAit TAit (O.A.1) (O.A.2) Lower case letter denote the natural logarithm of a focal variable. Thus, m stands for the log of market value. MV = market value; BV = book value; NI+ = positive net income while I is an indicator variable suggesting negativity of net income and LEV is leverage as defined in Appendix A.1 (ratio of total debt-to-assets). The non-fundamental component (mQ) is the difference between the market value and the fitted value, divided by firm’s total assets. In contrast, the fundamental component (fQ) which tracks long-run growth options is the sum of book value of debt and fitted market value, divided by firm’s total assets. 2 Online Appendix 3: Managerial Information (Earnings Surprises) Online Appendix 3 reports summary statistics and results from univariate tests, contrasting Europe and the U.S. I use the U.S. as benchmark since much of research about firm learning from stock prices is predominantly U.S.-related. The sample covers 2,312 European firms and 2736 U.S. (that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ) and spans the period from 1991 to 2011. To examine the impact of country-level infrastructure, this period is further broken into two sub-periods: before 2000 (pre-Reg FD) and after 2000 post-Reg FD). The variable of interest is earnings surprise as a proxy for managerial information about fundamentals. I use the earnings surprise percent (ESPCT) item as calculated by Thomson One. I show not only the average earnings surprise, the average of its absolute value, but also the country-industry-year adjusted value of earnings surprise percent and the related differences of that latter value relative to the U.S. Finally, the division of Europe in continental Europe and the U.K. helps verify the conjecture that the U.K. and continental Europe have different country-level infrastructure that affects the information environments of firms. It also helps examine whether the U.K. shares common characteristics with the U.S. Average Adjusted ESPCT Average ESPCT EUROPE before year 2000 after year 2000 Continental Europe before year 2000 after year 2000 U.K. before year 2000 after year 2000 0.12 0.25 0.05 0.14 U.S. -0.06 -0.26 0.03 before year 2000 after year 2000 0.01 Average Absolute ESPCT Value Diff. relative to the U.S. t-statistic # obs. 0.80 0.74 0.82 0.89 0.84 0.92 0.29 0.30 0.29 0.38 0.28 0.43 0.43 0.31 0.49 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.18 0.10 0.22 0.23 0.13 0.28 -0.05 -0.04 -0.05 17.13 6.45 16.13 19.05 7.30 17.78 -3.23 -1.48 -3.48 23,343 7,698 15,645 19,606 6,328 13,278 3,737 1,370 2,367 0.44 0.52 0.40 0.20 0.18 0.21 25,380 7,959 17,421 Online Appendix 4: Percentage Shareholdings by Employees and Family Members Online Appendix 4 reports summary statistics and results from univariate tests, contrasting Europe and the U.S. I use the U.S. because benchmark as much of research about firm learning from stock prices is predominantly U.S.-related. The sample covers 2,312 European firms and 2736 U.S. (that trade on the NYSE and NASDAQ) and spans the period from 1991 to 2011. The variable of interest is NOSHEM (source: Datastream), which is the percentage of strategic holdings of 5% or more held by employees or by family members. This variable can affect information flow between insiders and outsiders and thus the quality of investor private information contained in stock prices. I show not only the average NOSHEM but also the differences relative to the U.S. Finally, the division of Europe in continental Europe and the U.K. helps verify the conjecture that the U.K. and continental Europe have different country-level infrastructure that affects the information environments of firms. It also helps examine whether the U.K. shares common characteristics with the U.S. NOSHEM (%) EUROPE Continental Europe U.K. 18.02 19.74 5.61 U.S. 5.75 Diff. relative to the U.S. (%) 12.26 13.99 -0.14 t-statistic # obs. 60.62 64.12 0.52 19,896 17,462 2,434 18,729 3 Online Appendix 5: The moderating role of the depth of (peer) analyst coverage using an alternative definition of investment The sample includes 2,312 non-financial, non-utility individual firms that are listed in 14 European countries. It spans the 1991–2011 period. This table 6 reports the regression coefficients and p-values obtained from IV estimations of Eq. (2). The dependent variable is as calibrated in Richardson (2006) scaled by lagged book assets. Richardson (2006) defines investment as follows: capex + R&D + acquisitions – (sales of PPE + depreciation). Firm Q and RelPeer Q are as defined in Table 1. All other variables included in the regression but not reported herein (age, return, etc.) are defined as in Appendix A.1. Peer firm average variables are constructed as the average across all other firms in a given firm's peer industry. A firm's industry peer group is defined based on its ICB level 3 classification. In all specifications, I estimate Eq. (2) using an unbalanced panel with year fixed effects and time-invariant firm fixed effects. I correct for arbitrary heteroskedasticity and for correlation within firms. I provide overidentifying restrictions (Sargan test statistic and the related p-value). First-stage estimates are available upon request (Cragg– Donald Wald F-statistics suggest that weak instruments are of no concern in this study). Symbols ***, **, and * indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. Variables RelPeer Qt-1 Firm Qt-1 Ψ +-jt-1 Ψ +jt-1 Number of observations R-squared Sargan statistic A: Peer analyst coverage low high -0.0015 0.0311 (0.6983) (0.0113) 0.0113 *** 0.0074 (0.0000) (0.0008) 0.0119 -0.0110 (0.1185) (0.0790) -0.0009 -0.0016 (0.2542) (0.0624) B: Firm analyst coverage low high ** *** 0.0050 0.0053 (0.2226) (0.3550) 0.0049 ** (0.0159) * 0.0094 (0.0784) * 0.0111 *** (0.0000) * -0.0063 (0.2509) -0.0010 0.0001 (0.1369) (0.9073) 8856 11013 9801 10003 0.1012 0.0554 0.0709 0.1015 0.685 0.026 0.700 4.310 (0.4079) (0.8710) (0.4027) (0.0379) In this online appendix, I further explore the robustness of firm learning from (peer) stock prices using an alternative definition of investment following Richardson (2006). As in Table 5 of the manuscript, I structure the discussion using the depth of peer firms’ and individual firms’ own analyst following. Sample splits take place by industry and by year, allowing firms to migrate across the states over time. First, I use peer analyst coverage to partition the sample. Similar results generally obtain as above when I use now the composite investment ratio akin to Richardson (2006) as the dependent variable. In this specification, firms generally do not learn from peer stock prices when their peers have lower analyst following (p = 0.6983). Instead, the average firm relies uniquely on its own stock price (1.13%, p < 0.001) when deciding on investment spending (column (1) of online appendix 5). This effect reverses as peer 4 firms’ analyst coverage becomes deeper. A one standard deviation increase in peer firms’ stock price innovations results in a 3.11% increase in investment spending. Furthermore, the reliance on a firm’s own stock prices does not disappear completely; it merely decreases from 1.13% to 0.74%, and remains highly significant. However, the impact on investment of peer stock price shocks turns out to be moderately higher than that of a firm’s own stock price (p = 0.077). Surprisingly, both measures of price informativeness load negatively and significantly on investment. It is unclear whether this signals perceived reduces growth opportunities. In a second step (Panel B of online appendix 5), I split the sample again by year and by industry based on the depth of individual firms’ own analyst coverage. The evidence proves also consistent with firm learning from (peer) stock prices. In fact, firms respond more positively to innovations their own stock prices when their own stock is followed by more analysts (1.11% vs. 0.49%) than their stock is followed by fewer analysts. Interstingly, peer residual stock price informativeness has a positive impact on investment of the average firm. 5
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