Prepared by DHV MED on behalf of
EcoPeace/ Friends of the Earth Middle East
Roadmap for the Rehabilitation of the Lower Jordan River
Gilad Safier
August 2011
Gilad Safier
November 2011
Agenda
Current
Accounts
Zero Scenario
Reintroduction
Scenario
 Water quantities and quality today
 Represents an average year
 Future prediction for 30 years (2011-2041)
 Including climate change, Population growth, changes in
agricultural consumption, Approved plans
Current Accounts
Model Scope
Timeframe:
•Hydrological year starts at October 1st
•Monthly Resolution
•Hydrological data from 1996-2010
•One average year
Calculates:
•Water flows (m3/month)
•Chlorides(mg/L)
Current Accounts
The WEAP Model
GLOWA Model built in WEAP
 Reaches
 Water Sources
 Water consumers
 Hydrometric Stations
 Quality Samples
 Drainage Basins
 Dams
 Fishponds
 Groundwater
…
Current Accounts - Calibration
3000
Assumptions regarding salinity:
CL (mg/L)
•Fixed
salinity of all water sources throughout the
2500
year
•Effect of evaporation on salinity in the river itself
2000
is neglected
•Runoff salinity is 50 mg/L
1500
•Salinity
of return flow from irrigation is 800 mg/L
NPA Automn
•Salinity of return flow from saline irrigation
WEAP Automn
is1500 mg/L
NPA Spring
1000
•Salinity of Israeli Sewage is 350 mg/L
WEAP Spring
•Salinity of incoming groundwater is 1625 mg/L
•…
500
0
Jordan River
Natural Flows
Current Accounts
Results
Top 5 contributors:
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
Emeq Hamaayanot – 26 MCM;
SWC - 19 MCM;
Groundwater – 18 MCM;
Nahal Harod – 13 MCM;
Nahal Tavor – 8 MCM
Rough annual balance:
•About 108 MCM enter the LJR
•20 MCM are consumed
•12 MCM evaporate
•Annual flow at Bezeq is 76 MCM
9
MCM/Month
FMS
salinity=750
mg/L
220 MCM/Yr
Zero Scenario
Current
Accounts
Zero Scenario
Reintroduction
Scenario
Zero Scenario- Assumptions
National Changes in demand
• KAC
• NWC
Climate Change
• Inflows to the Kinneret
• Evaporation
• Flows of springs
Local Changes in demand
• Reform in Fishponds
• Irrigation
• Population Growth
Future Projects
•
•
•
•
WW reclamation :Bitaniya, Beit-She’an, Harod
Desalination of the SWC
Release of Harod Spring
Artesian wells upstream the Sea of Galilee
2 most important
assumptions
Zero Scenario – Climate Change
1000
250
y = 0.3853x + 228.48
240
Inflows
235
600
230
225
400
Inflows
y = -2.6097x + 625.11
200
Evaporation
220
215
210
Evaporation
800
245
Zero Scenario
Water level in the Kinneret
-208
-209
Kinneret Level
-210
Top Red Line
Meters MSL
Bottom Red Line
-211
-212
-213
-214
-215
Black Line
Zero Scenario
Annual Flows
450
450
400
400
350
350
400
Deganiya
Deganiya
Shifa/ Kfar Rupin
Shifa/ Kfar Rupin
MCM
MCM
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
9
MCM/Month
FMS
salinity=750
mg/L
5050
00
220 MCM/Yr
69
Zero Scenario
Monthly Flows – Period C
150
120
MCM
90
60
30
0
Oct-25
Oct-26
Oct-27
Oct-28
Oct-29
Oct-30
Oct-31
Oct-32
Oct-33
Oct-34
Oct-35
Oct-36
Oct-37
Oct-38
Oct-39
Oct-40
Zero Scenario
Extreme drought
Zero Scenario
Conclusions
Next 30 years can be split into 3 periods
a. Next decade when the Sea of Galilee is still low
b. Transition period when the Sea of Galilee is high but flows downstream are negligible
c. Return of overflows to the LJR, albeit not in historical magnitude
Overall improvement in flows and quality, especially in period C:
•Still be less than 10% of historical flows
•Environmental goals are not met
•Salinity wise, the river will be split at the confluence with Harod
•Effect of overspills from the Sea of Galilee will be limited to a few months
Reintroduction Scenario
Current
Accounts
Zero Scenario
Reintroduction
Scenario
Reintroduction Scenario
Measures
Measure
1
2
3
MCM
Cease pumping from lower Yarmouk to the
SoG, if the later is higher than the bottom red
line
The brine of the SWC will be transferred to the -8
Dead Sea
Salinity
ton/Yr
NIS (Undiscounted)
3
Capital Fixed Per m
2,300
-0.09
47,000 130m
-necessitates a 83 km long, 2
-less water to the AMWA fish
1.2m 0.07
- Homa spring will be partiall
- necessitates a 15 km long, 3
10-15
6
7
Diminish fresh agriculture by 30% by 2020
8
Maintain present consumption level in the UJR 27
++
-
-
1.6
9
Discharge some of the effluents of the Kishon 2-3
to Harod River to reduce salinity
Desalination of 1.5 MCM/Yr of the SWC water, on top of the current plan
+
-
-
-
-
1.5
5
10
40m
-saving in pumping energy
-Does not contribute water w
3.9m
Transferring effluents from Kishon to AMWA
and Harod
Further and faster decreasing pumping to the
1
NWC
Exchanging 50% of the fishponds with field
2
crops and alfalfa
Diminish saline agriculture by 30% by 2020
4
-
Remarks
3
30
++
1.55
-price per m calculated by a
pumping costs to the NWC [3
10
36,000
0.2
- price per m represents the
cubic meter used in the pond
10
+
0.7
9-12
+
1.6
- price per m represents the
cubic meter of saline water ]
3
- price per m represents the
cubic meter of fresh water ]1
Keeping the current
original quotas
-Less water available for AM
reduced profits in case of sho
3,000 7 m
3
3
- 1.5 MCM/Yr is the maximum
flow of the SWC springs fluct
- variable costs include pump
Reintroduction Scenario
Water level in the Kinneret
-208
-209
Meters MSL
-210
-211
-212
-213
-214
-215
Reintroduction Scenario
Zero Scenario
Top Red Line
Bottom Red Line
Black Line
1.3m
Reintroduction
Period C averages
Reintroduction Scenario
Net costs & lost revenues
 370 million for dealing with the SWC and its brine.
 1,300 million to decrease flow in the NWC.
 100 million to transfer effluents from the Kishon Water Works.
 730 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the LJR basin.
 970 million in lost revenues for the farmers in the UJR basin.
 Possibility to pump 40 MCM/Yr from the river for saline irrigation at Emeq
Hamaayanot – revenues of 600 million NIS
 Downstream Bezeq Stream – water can be used for saline irrigation up
until Adam Bridge
Reintroduction Scenario
Effectiveness of measures
Parameters
Env.
Req.
CA
Zero Scenario
Period B
Rehab. Scenario
Period C
Period B
Period C
Average annual flow downstream SWC
(MCM)
Average annual flow downstream
Emeq Hamaayanot (MCM)
Average annual flow coverage below
Emeq Hamaayanot (%)
125
21
52
127
50
151
220
72
112
177
117
238
100
33
54
69
53
92
Average flow in March downstream
Yarmouk (MCM)
Average annual minimum flow
downstream SWC (MCM)
Average discharge coverage
downstream SWC (%)
FMS downstream Tavor (mg/L)
FMS downstream Emeq Hamaayanot
(mg/L)
Months above 750 mg/L downstream
Tavor (%)
Months above 750 mg/L downstream
Emeq Hamaayanot (%)
Total score
19
2.6
14.2
47.5
7.9
34.5
9
1.4
0.7
0.4
2.5
7.2
100
17
26
32
40
91
750 1,738
750 1,783
1,484
1,884
1,308
1,928
1,289
1,362
641
753
0
100
86
82
56
1
0
100
93
85
95
8
100
13
28
45
35
95
Conclusions
The condition of the Jordan River today is grim with only 3% of the
historical flow.
The situation will somewhat improve over the next decades but not
enough.
Salinity-wise the Jordan River will be split at Harod stream.
Releasing 125 MCM/Yr from the Sea of Galilee will be sustainable
within 10-15 years
Partial restoration of the Jordan River can be achieved at an
expense/lost revenues of 3.4 billion NIS over the next 30 years
Thank you for listening
Gilad Safier
M.Sc in Hydroinformatics
054-9444118
[email protected]