No. 2008/37 Monopoly Power Limits Hedging Alexander Muermann

No. 2008/37
Monopoly Power Limits Hedging
Alexander Muermann
and Stephen H. Shore
Center for Financial Studies
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt „ House of Finance
Grüneburgplatz 1 „ 60323 Frankfurt „ Deutschland
Telefon: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
http://www.ifk-cfs.de „ E-Mail: [email protected]
Center for Financial Studies
The Center for Financial Studies is a nonprofit research organization, supported by an
association of more than 120 banks, insurance companies, industrial corporations and
public institutions. Established in 1968 and closely affiliated with the University of
Frankfurt, it provides a strong link between the financial community and academia.
The CFS Working Paper Series presents the result of scientific research on selected
topics in the field of money, banking and finance. The authors were either participants
in the Center´s Research Fellow Program or members of one of the Center´s Research
Projects.
If you would like to know more about the Center for Financial Studies, please let us
know of your interest.
Prof. Dr. Jan Pieter Krahnen
Center for Financial Studies
House of Finance „ Goethe-Universität
Grüneburgplatz 1 „ 60323 Frankfurt am Main „ Deutschland
Prof. Volker Wieland, Ph.D.
Telefon: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
http://www.ifk-cfs.de „ E-Mail: [email protected]
CFS Working Paper No. 2008/37
Monopoly Power Limits Hedging*
Alexander Muermann1 and Stephen H. Shore2
May, 2008
Abstract:
When a spot market monopolist participates in a derivatives market, she has an incentive to
deviate from the spot market monopoly optimum to make her derivatives market position
more profitable. When contracts can only be written contingent on the spot price, a riskaverse monopolist chooses to participate in the derivatives market to hedge her risk, and she
reduces expected profits by doing so. However, eliminating all risk is impossible. These
results are independent of the shape of the demand function, the distribution of demand
shocks, the nature of preferences or the set of derivatives contracts.
JEL Classification: D24, G32
Keywords: Spot Market Power, Derivates Market, Hedging.
* This note was written by Muermann and Shore inspired by an idea initially considered by Shore and Glen Taksler in the earlier paper.
“Why don’t oil producers perfectly risk-share?” We thank Glen Taksler for his insights. We received valuable comments from Christian
Laux, Volker Nocke, Matt White, and seminar participants at the Financial Markets Group of the LSE, the University of Frankfurt,
Wharton, and the NBER. Muermann and Shore gratefully acknowledge support from the Risk Management and Decision Processes
Center at the Wharton School
1 Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, Department of Finance and Accounting, and CFS Heiligenstaedter Str. 4648, A-1190 Wien, Austria, phone: +43 1 31336 4948, e-mail: [email protected]
2 Johns Hopkins University, Department of Economics, 458 Mergenthaler Hall, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA, phone: +1 410 516 5564, email: [email protected]
%#!&%!
< B67A >/>3@ E3 1=<A723@ B63 7;>/1B =4 A>=B ;/@93B >=E3@ =< / ;=<=>=:7ABJA /07:7BG B= 63253 A>=B
;/@93B >@713 @7A9 ,63< / A>=B ;/@93B ;=<=>=:7AB >/@B717>/B3A 7< / 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B 7B :3/2A
B= / ;=@/: 6/H/@2 >@=0:3; 7< B63 A>=B ;/@93B < >/@B71C:/@ A63 6/A /< 7<13<B7D3 B= 23D7/B3 4@=;
B63 ;=<=>=:G =>B7;C; 7< =@23@ B= ;/93 63@ 23@7D/B7D3A >=A7B7=< ;=@3 >@=IB/0:3 ,63< @/B7=</:
23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B >/@B717>/<BA =0A3@D3 B63 ;=<=>=:7ABJA >=A7B7=< B63G E7:: B/93 B63 7;>/1B =4 B67A
>=A7B7=< =< AC0A3?C3<B A>=B >@713A 7<B= /11=C<B E63< A3BB7<5 23@7D/B7D3A >@713A
)67A ;/93A 7B
3F>3<A7D3 4=@ / ;=<=>=:7AB B= ;7B75/B3 @7A9
,3 A6=E B6/B E63< 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1BA 1/< 03 E@7BB3< 1=<B7<53<B =< B63 @3/:7H/B7=< =4 23;/<2
/ @7A9/D3@A3 ;=<=>=:7AB 3:7;7</B3A /:: @7A9
,63< 1=<B@/1BA 1/< =<:G 03 E@7BB3< 1=<B7<53<B =<
B63 A>=B >@713 A63 >/@B7/::G 3:7;7</B3A @7A9 /<2 @32C13A 3F>31B32 >@=IBA 0G 2=7<5 A= )63 /;=C<B
=4 63257<5 7<1@3/A3A E7B6 @7A9/D3@A7=<
,67:3 A=;3 =4 B63A3 @3AC:BA 6/D3 033< A6=E< 7< B63
1=<B3FB =4 A>317I1 3F/;>:3A E3 >@=D3 B63; E7B6=CB /<G >/@/;3B@71 /AAC;>B7=<A /0=CB B63 A6/>3
=4 B63 23;/<2 4C<1B7=< B63 27AB@70CB7=< =4 23;/<2 A6=19A B63 </BC@3 =4 >@343@3<13A =@ B63 A3B =4
23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1BA
)63 ;=AB 7;>=@B/<B M /<2 / <=D3: M @3AC:B =4 B63 >/>3@ 7A B6/B 3:7;7</B7<5
/:: @7A9 7A 7;>=AA70:3 2=7<5 A= 7A <=B 7<13<B7D3 1=;>/B70:3
CAB /A K<= B@/23L B63=@3;A 35
#7:5@=; /<2 (B=93G A6=E B6/B B63@3 7A <= >@713 /B E6716 7<4=@;32 /53<BA 1/< B@/23 >@=IB/0:G
7< I</<17/: ;/@93BA E3 >@=D3 / K<= 1=;>:3B3 63257<5L B63=@3; B6/B A6=EA B6/B B63@3 7A <= >@713
/B E6716 /53<BA E7B6 A>=B ;/@93B >=E3@ 1/< 3:7;7</B3 /:: A>=B ;/@93B >@713 @7A9
!
,3 3<D7A7=< / ;=23: E7B6 =<3 5==2 /<2 BE= >3@7=2A ;=<=>=:7AB E7B6 /< 7<1@3/A7<5
CB7:7BG 4C<1B7=< 7A B63 A=:3 >@=2C13@ =4 B63 5==2 /<2 B63 5==2 7A >@=2C132 =<:G 7< B63 :/AB >3@7=2
)63 ;=<=>=:7AB 16==A3A ?C/<B7BG B= ;/F7;7H3 >@=IBA
3;/<2 7A C<13@B/7< /<2 7A @3/:7H32
03BE33< B63 BE= >3@7=2A )63 @3A72C/: <3B =4 >@=2C1B7=< 1=ABA /<2 /<G /227B7=</: >@713B/97<5
AC>>:73@A 23;/<2 4C<1B7=< 4/132 0G B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 7A 57D3< 0G E63@3 7A B63
@3/:7H/B7=< =4 23;/<2 < B63 7<7B7/: >3@7=2 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 1/< 3<B3@ 7<B= / 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B
<23@A=< /<2 (C<2/@3A/< ABC2732 / A7;7:/@ A3BB7<5 4=1CA7<5 =< E63B63@ 4CBC@3A B@/27<5 1/< 3F7AB 7< /
@/B7=</: 3F>31B/B7=<A 3?C7:70@7C; C<23@ A>=B ;/@93B >=E3@ ,3 =0B/7< / @3AC:B 3?C7D/:3<B B= B637@A / @7A9/D3@A3
;=<=>=:7AB >/@B717>/B3A 7< B63 4CBC@3A ;/@93B
B6/B >/GA =P 7< B63 A31=<2 >3@7=2 7D3< / 1=;>3B7B7D3 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B E7B6 @7A9<3CB@/:
;/@93B ;/93@A B63 >/G=P =4 B63 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B ;CAB 03 H3@= 7< 3F>31B/B7=< )63 ;=<=>=:7ABJA >@=IBA /@3 B63<
E63@3 7A B63 <C;03@ =4 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1BA 0=C56B 0G B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 7< B63 I@AB >3@7=2 /<2 7A
/AAC;32 B= 03 =0A3@D/0:3 7< B63 ;/@93B
< B63 :/AB >3@7=2 /4B3@ 23;/<2 7A @3/:7H32 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 16==A3A /< =>B7;/: ?C/<B7BG )63 A>=B ;/@93B I@AB=@23@ 1=<27B7=< % 7A 57D3< 0G
E63@3 E3 /AAC;3 B6/B B63 A31=<2 =@23@ 1=<27B7=< 7A A/B7AI32
< B63 7<7B7/: >3@7=2 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB E7:: A3B B= A/B7A4G B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B %
E63@3
(C0AB7BCB7<5 B63 A>=B ;/@93B % 7<B= G73:2A
7D3< B6/B B63 A>=B ;/@93B ?C/<B7BG 7A 16=A3< =>B7;/::G B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B % 7A
4=C<2 0G AC0AB7BCB7<5 7<B= #/@93B >=E3@ 7<B@=2C13A B63 B3@; 7<B= B67A % ,63< A3BB7<5 B63 <C;03@ =4
23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1BA B63 ;=<=>=:7AB B/93A 7<B= /11=C<B B6/B / 63257<5 7<2C13A 63@ B= 23D7/B3
=@ B63 A/93 =4 >/@A7;=<G 23;/<2 @7A9 7A /AAC;32 B= 03 727=AG<1@/B71 /<2 B63@34=@3 <=B >@7132
(33 #C3@;/<< /<2 (6=@3 4=@ / B@3/B;3<B =4 AB@/B3571 B@/27<5 E63< 7A <=B >3@431B:G =0A3@D/0:3
4@=; B63 A>=B ;/@93B =>B7;C; ?C/<B7BG 0 B67A 23D7/B7=< 16/<53A A>=B >@713A /<2 1
B67A 16/<53 7< A>=B >@713A 16/<53A B63 >/G=P =4 B63 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B $'#$ ! !"!$%$ (% !% %
#!"!$%!
$"$! " " "" ( ' !# " " % "" " !$ ! !" % " !
" # ' )"! " !" "
#!! (33 >>3<27F 23;/<21=<B7<53<B 1=<B@/1B M E63@3 =@ 7<AB3/2 =4 M /::=EA
B63 ;=<=>=:7AB B= 1=;>:3B3:G 3:7;7</B3 @7A9 E67:3 ;/7<B/7<7<5 ;=<=>=:G >@=IBA
23;/<21=<B7<53<B 1=<B@/1B E7:: >/G =P ;=AB 7< AB/B3A E63@3 23;/<2 7A :=E3AB
)63 =>B7;/:
)63A3 /@3 B63
AB/B3A E7B6 B63 :=E3AB 3?C7:70@7C; >@713A (7<13 1=<B@/1B >/G=PA /@3 1=<B7<53<B =< @3/:7H32 23;/<2
/<2 <=B >@713A B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 6/A <= 7<13<B7D3 B= 16/<53 >@713A 4@=; B63 ;=<=>=:G =>B7;C; A7<13
2=7<5 A= 6/A <= 7;>/1B =< B63 23@7D/B7D3 1=<B@/1BJA >/G=P $=B3 B6/B B63 ;=<=>=:7ABJA /07:7BG B=
3:7;7</B3 /:: @7A9 E67:3 ;/7<B/7<7<5 ;/@93B >=E3@ 23>3<2A 1@7B71/::G =< B63 D3@7I/07:7BG =4 23;/<2
M =< B63 3F7AB3<13 =4 / 1=<B@/1B70:3 >@=FG 4=@ @7A9 B6/B B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 1/<<=B 16/<53 =E3D3@
7< B63 @3/: E=@:2 23;/<2 M =@ 3?C7D/:3<B:G ?C/<B7BG M ;/G <=B 03 =0A3@D/0:3 =@ D3@7I/0:3
$ '#$ ! !"!$%$ (%!&% !% %
CG7<5 / 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B /::=EA B63 ;=<=>=:7AB B= B@/<A43@ E3/:B6 4@=; 6756>@713 AB/B3A B=
:=E>@713 AB/B3A < / E=@:2 E7B6 23;/<2 A6=19A M E63< 6756 >@=IBA 1=7<1723 E7B6 6756 >@713A M
B67A 7A 3F/1B:G E6/B / @7A9/D3@A3 ;=<=>=:7AB E=C:2 :793 B= 2=
=E3D3@ 2=7<5 A= 1=;3A /B B63
1=AB =4 @32C132 ;=<=>=:G >@=IBA < B63 @3AB =4 B67A A31B7=< E3 /AAC;3 4=@ 1=;>/1B<3AA B6/B B63
;=<=>=:7AB 4/13A 23;/<2 A6=19A
&CB /<=B63@ E/G 5==2 AB/B3A 6/D3 0=B6 6756 >@713A /<2 6756
>@=IBA E67:3 0/2 AB/B3A 6/D3 0=B6 :=E >@713A /<2 :=E >@=IBA
#!"!$%!
$=B3 B6/B B67A /AAC;>B7=< @C:3A =CB AC>>:G A6=19A E63@3 7<1@3/A32 >@713A 1=@@3A>=<2 B= :=E3@ ?C/<B7BG /<2 :=E3@
;=<=>=:G >@=IBA &/@/::3: @3AC:BA =0B/7< E63< B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 4/13A AC>>:G A6=19A
!$ ! !" ""! " $"$! " #" $! # )"! " ! " '* " $"$! " " ! ! ! " !" "
!" ! ! " !! "" #""' " !" " $! % ! % &" )"! " ! "
"" " $"$! "
!$ ! !" ! " $"$! " "! ! ! ! " % " '* " $"$! " " ! ! ! " !" #!! (33 >>3<27F ,63< B63 ;=<=>=:7AB B/93A / >=A7B7=< 7< B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B A63 6/A /< 7<13<B7D3 B= 23D7/B3
4@=; B63 A>=B ;/@93B =>B7;C; B= ;/93 B6/B >=A7B7=< ;=@3 >@=IB/0:3 0CB /B B63 3F>3<A3 =4 63@
3F>31B32 A>=B ;/@93B >@=IBA
4 B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B 7A 1=;>3B7B7D3 /<2 74 B63 ;=<=>=:7ABJA
23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B >=A7B7=< 7A >3@431B:G =0A3@D/0:3 B63< ;/@93B ;/93@A E7:: A3B >@713A A= B6/B B63
;=<=>=:7AB 3/@<A H3@= 3F>31B32 >@=IB 7< B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B *A7<5 B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B B=
@32C13 @7A9 7A 1=AB:G A7<13 7B @32C13A 3F>31B32 >@=IBA 7< B63 A>=B ;/@93B
)63 ;=<=>=:7AB 4/13A
/ B@/23=P 03BE33< @32C17<5 @7A9 /<2 ;/7<B/7<7<5 ;=<=>=:G >@=IBA A B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 031=;3A
;=@3 @7A9 /D3@A3 @7A9 @32C1B7=< 031=;3A @3:/B7D3:G ;=@3 7;>=@B/<B
!"% $ "!$$
,67:3 63257<5 7<1@3/A3A E7B6 @7A9/D3@A7=< /< 7<I<7B3:G @7A9/D3@A3 ;=<=>=:7AB 2=3A <=B 3:7;7</B3
/:: @7A9
=;>:3B3 63257<5 7A 7;>=AA70:3 3D3< E63< B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 1/< 16==A3 /;=<5 /:: >@713
1=<B7<53<B 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1BA
#!"!$%!
&!"! "" $"$! " " "" " !
#!! (33 >>3<27F <G >@7131=<B7<53<B 1=<B@/1B B6/B 3:7;7</B3A /:: @7A9 ;CAB >/G =CB @3:/B7D3:G ;=@3 E63< >@713A
7<271/B3 / K0/2L AB/B3 3F/1B:G =PA3BB7<5 /<G @32C132 A>=B ;/@93B >@=IBA 7< B63A3 AB/B3A
A /
@3AC:B B63 ;=<=>=:7AB E7:: /:E/GA 6/D3 /< 7<13<B7D3 B= A3B >@713A /A 74 / K0/2L AB/B3 6/2 =11C@@32
3D3< 7< K5==2L AB/B3A (7<13 A>=B ;/@93B >@=IBA /@3 67563@ 7< 03BB3@ AB/B3A M 6=:27<5 >@713A IF32 M
/<2 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B >/G=PA ;CAB 03 B63 A/;3 7< /:: AB/B3A E7B6 B63 A/;3 >@713 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB
E7:: 3/@< 67563@ >@=IBA 7< K5==2L AB/B3A )63@3 7A <= 7<13<B7D3 1=;>/B70:3 1=<B@/1B B6/B 3:7;7</B3A
/:: @7A9
&$%#%' )"
=<A723@ / <35/B7D3 3F>=<3<B7/: 23;/<2 4C<1B7=< E7B6 / 07<=;7/: 23
;/<2 A6=19 (7<13 B63@3 /@3 =<:G BE= AB/B3A =4 B63 E=@:2 / 4CBC@3A 1=<B@/1B 7A ACO173<B B= A>/<
B63 A3B =4 >@7131=<B7<53<B 1=<B@/1BA )63 23;/<2 4C<1B7=< 7A 57D3< 0G
E63@3 B63 @3/:7H/B7=< =4 23;/<2 B/93A D/:C3A E7B6 >@=0/07:7B73A /<2 @3A>31B7D3:G )63 >/G=P =4 3/16 4CBC@3A 1=<B@/1B 7A (C0AB7BCB7<5 3?C/B7=<
7<B= 3?C/B7=< G73:2A
E6716 7;>:73A
)63@34=@3 >@=IBA 57D3< =>B7;/: A>=B ;/@93B >@=2C1B7=< 1/< 03 4=C<2 0G AC0AB7BCB7<5 3?C/B7=< 7<B= 3?C/B7=< $=B3 B6/B >@=IBA /@3 7<1@3/A7<5 7< @35/@2:3AA =4 B63 D/:C3 =4 A= B6/B @7A9 1/<<=B 03 3:7;7</B32
1=;>:3B3:G ?C/<B7BG 1/< 03 16=A3< B= ;/F7;7H3 >@=IBA 7< / 57D3< AB/B3 =4 B63 E=@:2 <
7<I<7B3:G @7A9/D3@A3 ;=<=>=:7AB E7:: ;/F7;7H3 >@=IBA 7< B63 E=@AB AB/B3 /<2 B6CA A3B
< 7<I<7B3:G @7A9A3397<5 ;=<=>=:7AB E7:: ;/F7;7H3 >@=IBA 7< B63 03AB AB/B3 /<2 B63@34=@3 16==A3
E67:3 / @7A9<3CB@/: ;=<=>=:7AB A3BA $=B3 B6/B /<G 7A AB/B3E7A3 2=;7</B32 %CBA723 =4 B67A @/<53 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 1/< 7<1@3/A3 >@=IBA 7< 0=B6 AB/B3A
=4 B63 E=@:2 0G 0@7<57<5 1:=A3@ B= H3@=
Two-State Diagram
0.9
Perfect Risk Sharing
0.8
State-Wise Efficient Frontier
State-Wise Dominated
Frontier
Frontier with State-Contingent
Hedging
Proft with low demand
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Profit with high demand
75C@3 >:=BA >@=IBA 7< B63 AB/B3 E7B6 :=E 23;/<2 =< B63 G/F7A /5/7<AB >@=IBA 7< AB/B3
E7B6 6756 23;/<2 =< B63 F/F7A 4=@ B63 1/A3 E63< /<2 <G >=7<B =< B63 2/A632 :7<3 @3>@3A3<BA / A7BC/B7=< E7B6 <= @7A9 )63 B67< A=:72 :7<3 B/<53<B
B= B63 1C@D32 :7<3 @3>@3A3<BA B63 E3/:B6 :3D3:A 7< B63 BE= AB/B3A 74 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 1/< E@7B3 AB/B3
1=<B7<53<B 1=<B@/1BA )63 A:=>3 =4 B67A :7<3 7A B63 @/B3 /B E6716 A63 1/< B@/<A43@ E3/:B6 4@=; B63
0/2 AB/B3 B= B63 5==2 AB/B3 7B 7A 1=<AB/<B /<2 3?C/: B= ,63< =<:G >@7131=<B7<53<B
1=<B@/1BA /@3 >=AA70:3 B63 @/B3 /B E6716 E3/:B6 1/< 03 B@/<A43@@32 M B63 A:=>3 M 23>3<2A =< B63
/;=C<B =4 E3/:B6 B@/<A43@@32 03BE33< B63 BE= AB/B3A
&CB /<=B63@ E/G B63 ;/@57</: 1=AB =4
/227B7=</: 63257<5 7<1@3/A3A E7B6 B63 /;=C<B 037<5 632532
)67A 43/BC@3 7A @3>@3A3<B32 0G B63
1C@D32 :7<3 $=B3 B6/B /<G 63257<5 ?C/<B7B73A =CBA723 B63 @/<53 03BE33< /<2
/@3 AB/B3E7A3
2=;7</B32 73 B63 1=AB =4 E3/:B6 B@/<A43@ 7A 7<I<7B3 =CBA723 B67A @/<53 < 7<I<7B3:G @7A9/D3@A3
;=<=>=:7AB E=C:2 B6CA 16==A3 /< 7<I<7B3:G @7A9A3397<5 ;=<=>=:7AB E=C:2 16==A3 /<2 / @7A9<3CB@/: ;=<=>=:7AB E=C:2 16==A3 ! &$! $
< B67A >/>3@ E3 3F/;7<32 B63 B@/23=P / A>=B ;/@93B ;=<=>=:7AB 4/13A 03BE33< @32C17<5 @7A9
/<2 ;/7<B/7<7<5 ;=<=>=:G >@=IBA &/@B717>/B7=< 7< B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B 1@3/B3A / ;=@/: 6/H/@2
>@=0:3; 7< B63 A>=B ;/@93B B6/B ;/93A ;7B75/B7<5 @7A9 3F>3<A7D3 ,67:3 B63 @32C1B7=< =4 @7A9 7A
7<1@3/A7<5 7< B63 235@33 4=@ @7A9 /D3@A7=< 3:7;7</B7<5 /:: @7A9 7A <=B 7<13<B7D31=;>/B70:3
# $
-
. <23@A=< ' , /<2 # (C<2/@3A/< KCBC@3A #/@93BA /<2 #=<=>=:GL 7< )63 <2CA
B@7/: %@5/<7H/B7=< =4 CBC@3A #/@93BA 32 0G ' , <23@A=< "3F7<5B=< ==9A "3F7<5B=<
#
-. #7:5@=; & /<2 $ (B=93G K<4=@;/B7=< )@/23 /<2 =;;=< !<=E:3253L # ' N
-. #C3@;/<< /<2 ( (6=@3 K(B@/B3571 )@/27<5 /<2 #/<7>C:/B7=< E7B6 (>=B #/@93B
&=E3@L ,=@97<5 &/>3@
"" ) #!!$
#!! ! #!"!$%! &@=IBA /@3 57D3< 0G )63 A>=B ;/@93B % 7A 57D3< 0G )67A % 7A 723<B71/: B= B63 =<3 E7B6=CB 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B >/@B717>/B7=< )63 ;=<=>=:7AB
B63@34=@3 ;/7<B/7<A 4C:: ;/@93B >=E3@ 7< B63 A>=B ;/@93B )63 % 23B3@;7<3A /< =>B7;/:
?C/<B7BG /<2 / >@713 AAC;3 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 23A75<A / 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B
E7B6 B63 4=::=E7<5 >/G=P
< B67A 1/A3 4=@ >@=IBA /@3 1=<AB/<B A= B6/B @7A9 7A 3:7;7</B32 1=;>:3B3:G $=B3 B6/B /<G
>3@BC@0/B7=< B= @32C13A 3F>31B32 CB7:7BG 4=@ B63 @7A9/D3@A3 ;=<=>=:7AB
#!! ! #!"!$%! < B67A >@==4 E3 /AAC;3 B6/B B63 >/G=P =4 B63 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1B 7A 7<1@3/A7<5 7< B63 A>=B >@713
73 )63 >@==4 4=@ / 1=<B@/1B E6=A3 >/G=P 7A 231@3/A7<5 7< B63 A>=B >@713 7A 3?C7D/:3<B /<2
>/@/::3: @3AC:BA =0B/7<
D/:C/B7<5 B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B % /B G73:2A
(7<13 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 4/13A 23;/<2 A6=19A 6756 >@713A 1=7<1723 E7B6 6756 >@=IBA =@;/::G
4=@ /<G 23;/<2 A6=19 AC16 B6/B E3 6/D3 < B67A 1/A3 / A6=19 B=
23;/<2 6/A B63 4=::=E7<5 7;>/1BA =< ;/@57</: CB7:7BG /<2 =< B63 >/G=P =4 B63 23@7D/B7D3A
1=<B@/1B
)63A3 BE= 3P31BA 7;>:G /<2 B6CA =7<5 A6=@B
6/A B63 4=::=E7<5 7;>/1BA =< A>=B ;/@93B ?C/<B7BG /<2 >@713
$=B3 B6/B B63 A>=B ;/@93B (% 7;>:73A B6/B B63 23<=;7</B=@A 7< 0=B6 4@/1B7=<A /@3 <35/B7D3
=7<5 A6=@B B6CA 7;>:73A B6/B B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 7<1@3/A3A A>=B ;/@93B >@=2C1B7=< /<2 @3137D3A
:=E3@ A>=B >@713A )63 23@7D/B7D3
=4 3F>31B32 >@=IBA E7B6 @3A>31B B= A33 3?C/B7=< 7A
4=@ /:: )67A 7;>:73A B6/B B63 ;=<=>=:7ABJA 3F>31B32
>@=IBA M 57D3< =>B7;/: >/@B717>/B7=< 7< B63 23@7D/B7D3A ;/@93B M /@3 :=E3@ B6/< 74
A63 272 <=B >/@B717>/B3
,3 1=;>/@3 BE= ;=<=>=:7ABA E7B6 CB7:7BG 4C<1B7=<A /<2 E63@3 B63 ;=<=>=:7AB E7B6 CB7:7BG
4C<1B7=< 7A ;=@3 @7A9 /D3@A3 B6/< B63 =<3 E7B6 )63@3 3F7ABA /< 7<1@3/A7<5 1=<1/D3
4C<1B7=< AC16 B6/B "3B 23<=B3 B63 =>B7;/: <C;03@ =4 23@7D/B7D3A
1=<B@/1BA 4=@ ;=<=>=:7AB < B67A 1/A3 A/B7AI3A B63 %
)63 I@AB 23@7D/B7D3 =4 3F>31B32 CB7:7BG =4 ;=<=>=:7AB E7B6 @3A>31B B= 3D/:C/B32 /B 7A
'31/:: 4@=; 3?C/B7=< B6/B
/<2 23I<3
74 /<2 =<:G 74 '31/:: B6/B 4=@ /<G 23;/<2 A6=19 AC16 B6/B
$=B3 B6/B E3 6/D3
E6716
7;>:73A "3B 03 / :3D3: =4
23;/<2 4=@ E6716 A 7A 7<1@3/A7<5 7< B63 :3D3: =4 23;/<2 /<2 /A
%
B6/B AE7B163A A75< B63@3 3F7ABA / C<7?C3 :3D3: =4 23;/<2 4=@ E6716
7;>:73A
)63@34=@3
74 /<2 =<:G 74 C@B63@;=@3
7;>:73A B6/B
/<2 B63@34=@3
74 /<2 =<:G 74 ?C/B7=<A /<2 G73:2
4=@ /:: )67A 7;>:73A
% 7;>:73A B6/B
4 3F>31B32 CB7:7BG 7A 1=<1/D3 7< B63<
#!! ! #!"!$%! "3B 03 B63 7<D3@A3 23;/<2 4C<1B7=< /<2 AC>>=A3 23;/<2 7A 7<23F32 AC16 B6/B
74 /<2 =<:G 74 4=@ =@ / 23;/<2 @3/:7H/B7=< >@=4
7BA /@3 57D3< 0G
,3 >@=D3 B67A >@=>=A7B7=< 0G 1=<B@/271B7=< (C>>=A3 B63@3 3F7ABA / >@7131=<B7<53<B 1=<B@/1B B6/B 3:7;7</B3A /:: @7A9 E6716 7;>:73A B6/B
4=@ /<G BE= 23;/<2 @3/:7H/B7=< /<2 E63@3 /<2 /@3 B63 A>=B >@713A B63 ;=
<=>=:7AB A3BA =>B7;/::G 1=<B7<53<B =< @3/:7H32 23;/<2 )63 1=<B@/1B ;CAB 03 7<13<B7D3 1=;>/B70:3
7< B63 A3<A3 B6/B
4=@ /:: /<2 AAC;3 B6/B 7A B63 @3/:7H32 :3D3: =4 23;/<2 0CB B6/B B63 ;=<=>=:7AB A3B
>@713A 3?C/: B= 4=@ A=;3 &@=IBA /@3 B63<
(7<13 E3 6/D3 ?C/B7=< B63< 7;>:73A )67A D7=:/B3A B63 7<13<B7D3 1=;>/B707:7BG 1=<AB@/7<B
/A B63 ;=<=>=:7AB 53BA / 67563@ >@=IB 0G >@3B3<27<5 B= 03 7< 23;/<2 AB/B3 E63< @3/:7H32
23;/<2 7A )63@34=@3 <= 23@7D/B7D3A 1=<B@/1BA 1/< 3F7AB B6/B 3:7;7</B3 /:: @7A9
CFS Working Paper Series:
No.
Author(s)
Title
2008/36
Roman Inderst
Retail Finance: Bringing in the Supply Side
2008/35
Dimitris Christelis
Tullio Jappelli
Mario Padula
Cognitive Abilities and Portfolio Choice
2008/34
Tullio Jappelli
Marco Pagano
Information Sharing and Credit: Firm-Level
Evidence from Transition Countries
2008/33
Tullio Jappelli
Marco Pagano
Financial Market Integration under EMU
2008/32
Fancis X. Diebold
Georg H. Strasser
On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure
Noise in Theory and Practice
2008/31
Günter Franke
Jan Pieter Krahnen
The Future of Securitization
2008/30
Karin Assenmacher-Wesche
Stefan Gerlach
Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary
Policy on Asset Prices
2008/29
Tobias J. Cwik
Gernot J. Müller
Maik H. Wolters
Does Trade Integration Alter Monetary Integration
2008/28
Nikolas Hautsch
Dieter Hess
Christoph Müller
Price Adjustment to News with Uncertain
Precision
2008/27
Francis X. Diebold
Canlin Li
Vivian Z. Yue
Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A
Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach
Copies of working papers can be downloaded at http://www.ifk-cfs.de