CEMA Business Barometer
Public excerpt February 2017
What is the CEMA Business Barometer?
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A monthly survey within the European agricultural machinery industry (started in
2008)
Coverage of all major sectors – from tractors to municipal equipment
Target group: 140 senior managers from 9 (CEMA) countries
Implementation: online survey
Questionnaire available in five languages
Executed by VDMA for CEMA
Subjects of the survey:
► current and future business situation
► situation of order intake
► development of turnover
► turnover expectation per country
► production plans
► employment plans
► special topics, e.g. delivery times
Deadlines: starting ca. 5th each month, closure: ca. 13th
XX February
13
Month 200X
2017
Page 2
Presentation
title [email protected]
Contact:
Industry in Europe in upswing
Executive summary of the survey in February
The agricultural machinery industry in Europe is in the upswing. The general business climate
has repeatedly risen sharply and thus turned into positive - for the first time since early 2014.
Corresponding to a production period of 2.7 months on average, the volume of orders of the
total industry is as high as the last time in 2013. While the current situation has improved
particularly due to edge segments and is continuing weak for livestock equipment, the future
expectations turned positive across all segments. With 40% expecting a higher turnover within
the next six months, optimism is definitely back. At the same time, it is again best for the edge
segment of components, where more than 70% of the manufacturers expect a higher turnover,
which can be taken as a further positive early indicator for the total industry.
The main reason for the upswing lies in Europe itself. After the incoming orders of the past
months having shown more dynamics for exports to the outside of the EU, now in January the
order intake from the EU market has followed by increasing significantly. As a consequence,
turnover expectations are much better for Europe, with an overall improvement across all single
markets, except Belgium, where the last year´s agricultural income losses (-12) seem to impact
more noticeable. Even from France a slight majority of survey participants sees now for the next
six months a turnover increase, even though this might be rather a basis effect and the market
remains still on a bottom position. On the top of the ranking continues Spain, followed by the
UK, which is again mainly a result of the enthusiastic expectations of companies that are
producing locally in the country – nearly all British and Spanish dealers expect their turnover
and order intake to increase.
13 February 2017
Page 3
Contact: [email protected]
Business Climate
Index Development
CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI)
60
CBI
Present Situation
40
Future Expectation
20
7
201310
201311
201312
201401
201402
201403
201404
201405
201406
201407
201408
201409
201410
201411
201412
201501
201502
201503
201504
201505
201506
201507
201508
201509
201510
201511
201512
201601
201602
201603
201604
201605
201606
201607
201608
201609
201610
201611
201612
201701
201702
0
-12
-20
-40
-60
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
Index = sum of 1) evaluation of the current business situation and 2) turnover expectation, scale from -100 to +100
13 February 2017
Page 4
Contact: [email protected]
Business Climate
Illustration of Business Cycle
90
Boom
Upswing
Balance
2009
70
Expectation for the coming 6 months
2010
February
2017
2011
50
2012
2013
30
2014
2015
10
2016
2017
-10
-30
-50
-70
Downswing
Recession
-90
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
Evaluation of current business
13 February 2017
Page 5
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50
70
Balance
90
Business Climate
Current Evaluation and Expectations
Question: We consider our current business to be ….
100%
7%
8%
4%
very
unfavourable
26%
80%
Question: We expect our overall turnover within the
next 6 months to....
22%
29%
20%
decrease
32%
unfavourable
39%
60%
41%
satisfying
46%
40%
remain
unchanged
55%
49%
47%
38%
good
20%
40%
24%
13%
14%
201612
201701
very good
21%
23%
201612
201701
0%
201702
Source: CEMA Business Barometer
13 February 2017
Page 6
Contact: [email protected]
201702
grow
Employment
Question: Our plans regarding the workforce
Regular employees
increase
13%
reduce
15%
keep
unchanged
72%
Temporary employees
reduce
20%
keep
unchanged
56%
Source: CEMA Business Barometer February 2017
13 February 2017
Page 7
Contact: [email protected]
increase
24%