Winning Dedicated Funding for
California Transit
Presented to Smart Growth America
March 23, 2010
Washington, D.C.
Policy Objectives
Central Policy Goals:
• By 2011: state legislation authorizing regional
implementation of voter-approved vehicle-based carbon
fee.
• By 2012: voter approval in one region of vehicle-based
carbon fee to generate at least $1.5 billion over 10 years
for public transit operations and facilities.
2
State Budget Fiasco Playing Havoc
with Transit Funding
State Transit Funds Diverted:
$4.6 Billion
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: California Transit Association
3
Deep Shortfalls from
North to South
• Combined operating &
capital shortfall (CA
largest agencies): $470
m/yr
• Projected 2030/35
operating deficit (14
largest transit
agencies): $6.7 billion
• Projected 2030/35
capital shortfall: $25-50
billion
• LA Region: $114 m/yr
• Bay Area: $321 m/ yr
• San Diego Region: $26
4
Winning New Transit Funding: A
Path Forward
• Selecting the mechanism
– Coalition principles
– Avoid mechanisms that invite well-funded
opposition (business, oil industry)
– Follow polling indicators: gas taxes are nonstarters
• Regional implementation in ripe regions
• Heed price sensitivity
5
Vehicle-Based Carbon Fee
Carbon Fee Revenue
00
9
$
Total Revenue
(millions)/year
$1,000
00
6
$
$800
$600
$400
$200
00
3
$
0 70
5
$ $
State
0 1 40
0
$1 $
10
1
2
5 $
$1
$20
$30
SF Bay Area
Los Angeles
$0
$10
Fee/Vehicle
6
Building the Coalition
• Target partners: Environment,
Transportation, Business, Government,
Labor, Political, Community
• Expand circle of partners in mid-April
• Continue expanding the circle
(Spring/Summer 2010)
7
Getting to the Ballot:
A Two-Step Strategy
1. Legislation articulating the expenditure
parameters and authorizing regional
implementation of a vehicle-based
carbon fee (2011)
2. SF Bay Area or other regional campaign
for November 2012
8
Step 1: A Winning Legislative
Strategy
• Develop the policy (Summer/Fall 2010)
– Set parameters for expenditures
– Grant authorization to regions
– Define regional boundaries
– Refine revenue estimates
• Recruit key legislative endorsers/supporters
(Summer 2010)
• Identify bill authors (October 2010)
9
Step 1: A Winning Legislative Strategy
(timeline)
• Meet with the Senate and Assembly leadership (Winter
2010/2011)
• Recruit Bay Area legislative co-authors and sponsors
(Winter 2010/2011)
• Introduce legislation (February 2011)
• Conduct professional process to craft the regional
expenditure plan (2011)
• Conduct aggressive grassroots lobbying effort with
coalition partners to support legislation (Spring/Summer
2011)
• Use legislative process to build support and drive public
awareness of need and solution (Spring/Summer 2011)
• Track/manage legislation (Spring-Summer 2011)
• Produce media/communications support program
10
(Spring-Summer 2011)
• Governor signs legislation (Fall 2011); effective January
Campaign Structure for
Legislative Strategy
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Legislative advocate
Policy director
Coalition members
Coalition/grassroots lobbying campaign
Paid and earned media campaign
$500,000-750,000
12-18 month duration
11
Step 2: Developing a Winning
Campaign
Broad-based regional campaign structure (Fall/Winter
2011):
•
•
•
•
•
Executive Committee
Campaign Committee
Media and Campaign Consultant
Pollsters
Cost estimates:
– SF Bay Area: $3-$5 million
– LA Region: $5-10 million
– San Diego: $2-3 million
• Communicate primarily through TV, radio, Internet
12
Challenges and Considerations
•
•
•
•
Economic recovery?
New Governor in 2010
High Legislative turnover (term limits)
State budget and related funding
legislation
13
Communications Opportunities:
Compelling Messages
Ext. Impt.
Keeping transit affordable for all
Very Impt.
32%
Expanding transit availability for
vulnerable populations
27%
24%
34%
0%
28%
20%
23%
23%
12%
22%
26%
29%
40%
DK/NA
19% 10%
35%
26%
18%
Restoring transit services from cuts
Not Impt.
37%
28%
Expanding transit service
Replacing high-polluting buses with
energy efficient, low-emission
vehicles
S.W. Impt.
60%
14%
21%
80%
4%
100%
14
Other Key Messages
• Local funding, local control
• Benefits for the environment/fighting global
warming
• Traffic/congestion reduction
15
Discussion
&
Questions
More from Carli Paine, [email protected] & Bob Allen, [email protected]