Computer Graphics
in the 21st Century:
The Virtualization of Everything
Presented by
Ben Delaney
President,
CyberEdge Information
Services, Inc.
M.I.N.D. Labs
Media Interface
and Network Design Labs
© 2001 CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
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New York — San Francisco
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What We’re Here For
•How Computer Graphics (CG) has changed
the world
•The word on everybody's lips
•Three technologies that really, really matter
•The new world order
•The new you (or your kids, anyway)
•Why should you care?
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Computer Graphics Scientists
get no respect
• Spending hours in the lab
• Our contributions are usually made in the background
— unacknowledged and unappreciated...
• Despite making incredibly important discoveries
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You may not realize that the
CG community has changed
the world
Providing one of the most
important concepts of the
21st century!
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VIRTUAL
Ananova, the world's
first virtual newscaster
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Virtually Everything
is Virtual Today
•Reality
•Friends
•Doctors
•Pets
• Corporations
• Shopping
• Sex
• Meetings
• Organs
• Money
• Travel
•Prototypes
•Politicians
•Places
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The value of “Virtual” is
already huge
• Year 2000 value of Visual
Simulation and VR more
than US$24 billion
• More than 5,000 people
involved worldwide (1999)
• >35% annual growth rate
Published July 2000, CyberEdge Information Services, Inc.
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Why is this trend important?
Where is it going?
How will it affect us
What does it matter?
Those are the key topics of this talk
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A Brief History of Virtual
•1941: Link Flight
Simulator
•1965: Sutherland’s
Virtual Window
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Some Virtual Milestones
•1988: SIMNET links 280
workstations
•1989: VPL Research
Founded
•1991: Virtuality Game
System
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More Virtual Milestones
•1996: Visible
Human (male)
Completed
• 1999: SONY
releases AIBO,
sells out all stock
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And More Virtual
Milestones
•1999: Honda
announces
anthropomorphic
robot
•1999: 400 People
attend Avatars99
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What does the future have in
store?
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3 key technologies will reach
“Event Horizons” circa 2035
Computers/Communication
Biotechnology/Medicine
Nanotechnology
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Computing/Communication
Transistor Count in Microprocessors
Moore’s Law
continues to
hold true –
chip densities
double every
18 months
3.0E+15
Brain/Chip
Equivalance
2045
Human Brain
1.5 Quadrillion
2.5E+15
2.0E+15
1.5E+15
2.5
20 Million
1.28 Brillion
1 Trillion
1.0E+15
5.0E+14
0.0E+00
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By 2045 chips as complex as
the human mind are dirt cheap
•Complexity brings
Ch ip Complex it y V s. Ch ip Cost
increased speed
and power,
reduced energy
consumption and
cost
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Computers become smaller as
they become more powerful
Today’s desk-side box will fit in
your pocket, and that PDA-like
system will have supercomputer capabilities.
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More computers + more power =
more powerful communications
•Increasing calculation power
•Wide and local-area networks connecting
everybody and everything
•Most people use their computers as
communication devices, listening to music,
corresponding via email, shopping on the
Internet, getting the news
Image courtesy: [email protected], gelon.net © 2000 - Oslo, Norway
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Ubiquitous computing
•The power of embedded computers, where
the majority of processors are used, will
continue to increase geometrically
•Within a few years there will be more artificial
brains -- CPUs -- than living people
•More communication will take place between
computers than between people
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We will soon live within an allseeing, all-hearing network
•Enveloping all but the most remote parts of
the planet.
•Kitchen appliances, prosthetic
devices, dishes, cars, books, toys,
clothes – virtually every object
with which we interact – will
contain embedded intelligence,
and communication abilities.
Thalia home appliances by Sunbeam - Summer 2000
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Ubiquitous Computing
Simple chips, widely connected,
creating highly complex systems
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The Uber-net of artificial
intelligences will create a
global “mind”
•By around 2030, computers may become
conscious, self aware, and aware of us.
•Intelligent, autonomous robots will do much
work
•The relationship between human being, and
their inorganic progeny will change forever.
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Biotechnology
•Parallel to the advances in computing will be
huge strides in the understanding of organic
systems
•As we decipher the human and other
genomes we will develop insights into how
life itself works
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The obvious goal of biotech
and medical research –
eliminating death
•The question is: how do we accomplish
that goal?
•We will unlock the secrets of aging,
cancer development, regeneration,
cloning, genetic manipulation, immunity,
learning, and much more
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Manipulation of basic organic
functions
•Repair and replacement of genes
•Artificial enzymes and hormones
•Stimulation and retardation of
growth
•“Designer” children
•Cloning of animals and people
•Creation of imaginary creatures
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The human lifespan will grow
substantially longer
• We will conquer diseases, manipulate genes,
rebuild damaged immune systems, and regenerate organs and limbs
• Doubled in the 20th century, the human lifespan
will quickly reach 100 years, then more
• The concept of “natural death” will become
quaint and archaic
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Interfaces between silicon and
carbon-based systems will
soon be common
•These systems will first be used for:
–
–
–
–
Control of muscles or other organs
Connecting prosthetic limbs to the nervous system
Restoring sight and hearing
Monitoring and reporting on biological activity
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The integration of mechanical
and biological systems will
accelerate
Images courtesy Dobelle Institute
Such as this demonstration
of artificial eyes
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Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology is the science and industry
of building extremely small machines
" Ultimately - in the great future - we can arrange the atoms the
way we want; the very atoms, all the way down! What would
happen if we could arrange the atoms one by one the way we
want them."
Richard P. Feynman
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Devices the size of molecules
•Still in the laboratory-demonstration
phase of development
•Today they are painstakingly
constructed atom by atom
•So far, nanomachines have
not done any useful work.
Sandia National Laboratory
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Nanomachines will be capable
of doing amazing jobs
•Ideas for how to apply nanotechnology are
far-ranging, and many will prove to be dead
ends
•All require deployment of billions (at least) of
individual units
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Materials made of
nanomachines will have
startling characteristics
•A few trillion nanomachines might be
programmed to form an entire building
– Such a building could be extremely strong
• The components could be flexible in an earthquake,
or streamlined in high winds
– Windows and walls could be moved at will
– The same machines could make the furniture
and appliances
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Building with nanomachines
•The nano-architect would:
– draw up a design
– order a number of kilograms of nano-machines
to be
– delivered at the building site, the
preprogrammed nanomachines create the
building
•The building would seem to grow, like a plant,
and infinite variations would be possible with
almost no additional cost.
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NASA is investigating
nanotechnology as a tool to be
used in space exploration
1: Send a few kilos of self-replicating, general
purpose nanomachines to the moon
2: They build more of themselves
3: Mine materials and construct a lunar base
4: Which humans to occupy when completed.
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Medicine also may benefit
from nanotechnology
•Miniature tools may be programmed to do micro
surgery from the inside out
•Angioplasty is one procedure that may be an
appropriate application
– Doctors may inject a few thousand nanomachines
– Automatic search for arterial restrictions
– Remove the plaque, perhaps converting it to a
harmless or even beneficial substance
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Just like the Fantastic Voyage
(but without the tiny crew)
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All roads lead to…
Fusion
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Fusion occurs around 2035-2050
•Computer systems vastly more
powerful than individual human
minds, ubiquitous, and completely
interconnected
•Most work done by robots
•Most human activities will be
computer mediated.
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Everything will have a virtual
component
www.ananova.com
•Virtual travel
•Virtual companions
•Virtual amusement parks
•Ubiquitous computing
•Unlimited communications
Virtual-ness will shape the world
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Machines capable of performing
nearly any task that people now
do will take over most “work”
This will create massive social disruption
“Anti-tech” Luddites will make a strong protest
They will fail
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Technology will spawn
difficult social questions
•What do people do when they have no jobs?
•What will people think about when machines
think faster, and can make more connections?
•How do you pass the time when you might
live forever?
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What unique quality of being
human distinguishes us from
the machines we create?
•Creativity?
•Humor?
•Hatred?
•Love?
•Curiosity?
•???
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What if machines see people as
threatening?
•People are irrational and
unpredictable
•Rationally, the machines may find
ways to limit their exposure
How will we keep up?
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The solution may be to take
evolution in hand
•We will have the skills and knowledge to
actually direct our evolution
•Blending biological and mechanical
components
•Manipulating genes
•Augmenting our human abilities.
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The lines demarcating human
and machine will become fuzzy
•People will be part computer
•Computers, using organic materials to
become even faster, and more animal-like, will
be nearly human
•We will have the ability to add capabilities to
human beings, who will be nearly immortal
•Devices and materials that would seem
magical today, will be common
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Implanted systems with
external connections will:
•Simulate any sensory perception
•Accept information in real time from massive
data banks
•Eliminate phones, monitors, keyboards, mice,
and speakers
•Provide abilities akin to telepathy
We will be one with our computers
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By the end of the 21st century
we will have redefined
“being human”
• Telepathic
• Super-human intelligence
• Flawless memory
• Seldom ill and able to recover from
nearly any injury
• Never aging
• Closely linked in a solar systemwide network
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We will go beyond Darwin, towards
the destination of the species
•A human/machine, carbo/silico,
organic/inorganic hybrid
•Actively planning and creating its own future
•Making Darwinian evolution history
University of
Toronto
Photoborgs,
Sept. 1999
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What does all of this have to
do with you, an IT specialist?
Quite a bit
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IT and Computer Graphics
inspire and enable
•Remember that important concept, Virtual?
•All sciences rely on CG to understand and
communicate
•Advances in CG facilitate other sciences’
advancement
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For years, science has been
struggling to understand the
world
Knowledge
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Computer Graphics has
unlocked the door
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CG is a key to understanding
and controlling the science of
the 21st century
The discoveries you make will
change the world forever
Get ready for the most exciting
time in human history!
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Thank You
I welcome your questions and comments
www.cyberedge.com
[email protected]
+1 212 358-7800
Thanks to Dr. Fank Biocca, Zena Biocca, Petrina Er,
and the MIND Lab
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