UPDATE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THE MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET (NOVEMBER 15, 2016)
SUMMARY OF MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET ACTIVITY
Municipal bond yields moved sharply higher going into the week of November 14 th, and continued to do so as of the beginning of the week.
This rise was in conjunction with US Treasury yield increases, albeit less than the move in the taxable market, and were mostly due to the
surprising election of Donald Trump as President. His win has caused many in the market to believe there will be significantly increased
economic growth, causing concerns of inflation going forward. Equity prices were sharply higher on the week as well. This week’s calendar
is expected to be in the $8 billion range, but many transactions may be postponed due to the market’s volatility.
CURRENT AAA MMD AND SIFMA RATES
Maturity
SIFMA
1-year MMD
5-year MMD
10-year MMD
30-year MMD
CURRENT U.S. TREASURY AND LIBOR RATES
AAA MMD VS. U.S. TREASURY RATIO
Close on Close on
Close on Close on
MMD to UST MMD to UST Week Over 1-mo
Week Over
Week Over
11/10
11/4
Maturity
11/10
11/4
Maturity % on 11/10 % on 11/4 Week Change Avg
Week Change
Week Change
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
0.55
0.56
-1 bps
1-Month LIBOR 0.53
0.53
0 bps
1-year
100.00
113.33
-13.33
67.56
0.71
0.68
3 bps
1-year UST
0.71
0.60
11 bps
5-year
81.05
90.32
-9.28
76.67
1.24
1.12
12 bps
5-year UST
1.53
1.24
29 bps
10-year
91.51
94.94
-3.43
91.07
1.94
1.69
25 bps
10-year UST
2.12
1.78
34 bps
30-year
94.20
98.05
-3.86
99.44
2.76
2.52
24 bps
30-year UST
2.93
2.57
36 bps
AAA MMD AND U.S. TREASURY YIELD CURVE
3.50
Maturity
Yield (%)
3.00
1-year
5-year
10-year
30-year
2.50
2.00
1.50
HISTORICAL MMD LOWS
Historical
Current
Date of Most
MMD Low
MMD
Recent Low
(%)
(%)
0.11
8/25/2014
0.71
0.62
10/10/2012
1.24
1.29
7/6/2016
1.94
1.93
7/6/2016
2.76
1-yr
Avg
(%)
95.30
79.16
91.77
97.15
Difference
+ 60 bps
+ 62 bps
+ 65 bps
+ 83 bps
1.00
0.50
0.00
1
2
5
10
15
Maturity
11/4/2016
Current MMD level
20
25
30
11/10/2015
NEW ISSUE SUPPLY ($ IN BILLIONS)
2016 MUNICIPAL CASH FLOWS ($ IN BILLIONS)
70
Billions
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
7.10
60
50
40
30
2.50
2.67
1.93
16.40
10
11.66
7.69
10/17/2016
10/24/2016
Negotiated
20
8.87
0.48
1.19
10/31/2016
11/7/2016
Competitive
11/14/2016
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 National Calls
2016 National Maturing Bonds
2016 National Coupon Payments
2016 National Mutual Fund Cash Flow
LARGEST NEGOTIATED MUNICIPAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE WEEK*
Amt ($MM)
1,024.385
719.815
515.000
450.000
369.000
283.085
250.000
225.000
223.000
220.000
192.890
186.720
176.635
173.000
137.000
110.000
107.590
ECONOMIC CALENDAR (WEEK OF 11/14)
Issuer
ST
Description
Cpn(1)
Tax(2)
TSASC Inc
Salt Rvr Proj Agric Imp & Pwr Dt
Los Angeles Co Met Trans Auth
Richmond Co-Virginia
AL Fed Aid Highway Fin Auth
Philadelphia Co-Pennsylvania
Denver City and Co-Colorado
Fort Bend Co (Katy) ISD
MA Dev Fin Auth (Emerson Clg)
Sacramento Flood Cntrl Agcy
Cincinnati City-Ohio
King Co Public Hospital Dt #1
Columbia City-South Carolina
Met Dist Hartford County CT
NJ Ed Fac Auth
Shreveport City-Louisiana
Bexar Co-Texas
NY
AZ
CA
VA
AL
PA
CO
TX
MA
CA
OH
WA
SC
CT
NJ
LA
TX
Tobacco Settlement Bonds
Electric Sys Ref Rev Bonds
Revenue Bonds
Refunding Bonds
Special Oblg Rev Bonds
GO Refunding Bonds
Airport Revenue Bonds
Refunding Bonds
Series 2016A & 2016 B
Assessment Rev Bonds
Water Sys Rev & Ref Bonds
Lt Tax GO Refunding Bonds
Wtrwks & Sewer Rev Bonds
GO Bonds
Rev Bonds
Wtr & Swr Revenue Bonds
Combined Tax Rev Bonds
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
F
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/T
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/T
E
* Not all transactions pricing this week over $100 million shown
** TSASC Transaction placed on Day-to-Day Status
(2)
Mon.
(11/14)
Tax Status:
E = Exempt, A = AMT, T = Taxable
Color Key:
Senior=Green, Co-Senior=Orange, Co-Manager=Blue, Selling Group = Purple
Data Source: Thomson Reuter’s Securities Data Corporation ("SDC"), IPREO and Bond Buyer
Tue.
(11/15)
 Business Inventories
 Empire Manufacturing
 Import Price Index
MoM & YoY
 Retail Sales Advance
MoM
 Retail Sales Ex Auto
and Gas
Wed.
(11/16)
 Capacity Utilization
 Industrial
Production MoM
 MBA Mortgage
Applications
 PPI Ex Food and
Energy MoM & YoY
 PPI Final Demand
MoM & YoY
Thu.
(11/17)
Fri.
(11/18)
 Bloomberg Economic  Kansas City
Expectations
Fed Manf.
 Building Permits
Activity
 Continuing Claims
 CPI Ex Food and Energy
MoM & YoY
 CPI MoM & YoY
 Housing Starts
 Initial Jobless Claims
 Philly Fed Business
Outlook
Disclaimer:
All information and opinions expressed in this document were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. All
information and opinions as well as any prices indicated are currently only as of the date of this report, and are subject to change without notice. Any estimations or projections as to events that may occur in the future (including
projections of market performance) are based upon the best judgment of Siebert Cisneros Shank & Co., L.L.C. ("SCS") from publicly available information as of the date of this report. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or
projections will be achieved. SCS expressly disclaims any and all liability relating or resulting from the use of this report.