Estimations
on
Macroeconomic
Costs
and
Potentials of Carbon Emission Reduction of Beijing
：
A
Modified
Multi-Objective
Programming
Approach
Yigang WEI
School of Economics and Management
Beihang Univesity
Introduction
Methodology and data
Results
Conclusions
1
Introduction
1
Introduction
China’s Measures for Carbon Emission abatement:
1) emission trading schemes (ETS).
China has carefully selected 7 cities and provinces as pilot markets for emission
trading schemes.
2) mandatory emission caps for each province and city
The abatement of carbon emission is an a race with economic development in
China.
2
Methodology and data
IOA (input-output analysis): to estimate the emissions across 34
economic industries in China
Direct Carbon Emissions Coefficient
The emission factors of various types of energy (including coal, coke, crude
oil, gasoline, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, natural gas) are calculated based on
the equation provided by IPCC:
  NCV  CEF
2
Methodology and data
Integrating multi-objective programming theory, genetic algorithm, and input
and output analysis.
Vi represents the added value coefficients of Sectori；Pi refers to the
emission coefficients of Sectori
2
Methodology and data
Constraints Functions
Noninferior Solutions:
2
Methodology and data
Data:
2012 Input and Output Table of Beijing
2013 Beijing Statistical Yearbook
3
Results
3
Results
Table 1 Potentials and Costs of CO2 Emission Abatement of Beijing in 2020
3
Results
Fig. 2 Average emission reduction cost under different GDP growth rates
3
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Results
GDP First（W1=1)
Emission Abatement First（W1=0)
Production and supply of electricity and heat
Transportation, storage and postal service
Metal mining and beneficiation products
Accommodation and hospitality
Petroleum, coking products and nuclear fuel processed products
Food and tobacco
Metal smelting and calendaring products
Health, sports and social welfare
Information transmission, software and information technology services
Production and supply of water
Real Estate
Scientific research and technical services
Machinery industry
Wholesale and retail
Residential services, repairs and other services
Communication equipment, computers and other electronic equipments
Finance
Mental products
Non-metallic minerals and other mineral mining and beneficiation products
Coal mining and beneficiation products
Transportation equipment
Gas production and supply
Wood products and furniture
Administrative and other industries
Electrical machinery and equipment
Instruments and Apparatuses
Fishery and forestry products and services
Textiles
Oil and gas extraction products
Textiles, garments, shoes and caps, leather, feather and their products
Chemical products
Education
Papermaking,printing,stationery, sporting goods
Non-metallic mineral products
Emission Abatement First（W1=0)
0
5
10
15
20
25
GDP First（W1=1)
30
Fig. 4 Scenaria Anaylsis of Secotrial Emission under Beijing
Different
Development
Propotion
of Each Sector's
Emission (%) Strategies
in 2020 (Unit:%)
35
4
Conclusions
• emission potentials range from 408.81 ~ 463.07 million tons.
• Emission abatement cost ranges from 1791 and 3689 RMB/ton.
•
The carbon price in the current ETS pilots are much lower than desirable levels.
•
a higher emission abatement target associates with a higher macroeconomic costs.
• Some industries have the largest abatement potentials, such as non-metallic mineral
products;papermaking,printing,stationery, sporting goods; education; chemical products