. A Utility Model for Water and Wastewater Revised Business Case Summary March 2016 Page | 1 www.lloydminster.ca Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 1 2. BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................... 2 How Does the Current Utility System Work? ........................................................................... 3 Alignment with City Priorities ................................................................................................ 5 Community Feedback........................................................................................................... 6 Key Clarifications................................................................................................................. 7 3. 2.4.1 Is This a Public-Private Partnership (P3)? ........................................................................ 7 2.4.2 How Will the LUC Impact Utility Rates in the Future? .......................................................10 2.4.3 Did the City Explore Other Options? ..............................................................................12 2.4.4 What Will a New Wastewater Treatment Facility Cost? .....................................................12 2.4.5 Is the City Following its Purchasing Policy? .....................................................................14 THE PARTNERSHIP ............................................................................................................ 15 What Does the City of Lloydminster Bring to the Partnership? ..................................................17 3.1.1 Water and Wastewater Assets ......................................................................................17 3.1.2 Our People .................................................................................................................19 What Does EPCOR Bring to the Partnership? Why EPCOR as a Partner? .....................................20 4. BUSINESS CASE ANALYSES ............................................................................................... 22 Financial Model Overview ....................................................................................................22 The Utility Corporation Model ...............................................................................................22 Key Assumptions ................................................................................................................25 Page | i www.lloydminster.ca Net Value of Water and Wastewater Assets............................................................................31 Base Scenario - Assets into Rate Base ..................................................................................32 Capital Project Funding .......................................................................................................37 Sensitivity Analyses ............................................................................................................38 Viability.............................................................................................................................39 Impact to Overall City Finances ............................................................................................40 5. NEXT STEPS ...................................................................................................................... 41 Page | ii www.lloydminster.ca 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City has examined the viability of developing a water and wastewater utility corporation. In doing so, the City has examined the benefits of developing a utility corporation in partnership with EPCOR. This business case is more comprehensive than the initial business case summary document shared with Council on February 22nd, 2016. The intent of the business case and financial model at this stage is to demonstrate the viability of setting up a utility corporation. Therefore, the financial model was developed using a number of preliminary assumptions and without all the details required to inform a financial transaction between the City and EPCOR. The business case concludes that developing a utility corporation to provide water and wastewater services in Lloydminster would: Allow a Strategic Partner to invest equity in the utility corporation and provide support and experience in developing a utility corporation; and Provide the City with revenue that may be used to advance other City priorities. The results presented in the business case are illustrated using several key assumptions. Subject to Council approval to proceed with the development of a utility corporation in partnership with EPCOR, the City will undertake further due diligence to facilitate the development of the detailed financial model, term sheets and definitive agreements. This process will review and refine inputs and key assumptions and develop a detailed financial model to inform the financial transaction between the City and EPCOR. Maintain reasonable water and wastewater rate growth; Provide for funding of future water and wastewater infrastructure without incurring additional City debt; Page | 1 www.lloydminster.ca 2. BACKGROUND The initial business case summary document presented to City Council on February 22nd, 2016 provided context regarding the opportunity to create a utility corporation to meet immediate and long-term utility needs. The primary drivers for the creation of a utility corporation are: The City’s need for a new wastewater treatment facility to comply with Saskatchewan Water Security Agency (WSA) effluent water quality requirements; The City’s inability to finance the wastewater treatment facility construction because the debt incurred would exceed the City’s current borrowing capacity; The City’s recent application to the Building Canada Fund not being successful in securing substantial funding to finance the wastewater treatment facility upgrades; and The number of additional major capital projects, beyond the wastewater treatment facility, which will also need to be completed within the next 10 years. To address these challenges, the City is considering implementing the Lloydminster Utility Corporation (LUC). Page | 2 www.lloydminster.ca How Does the Current Utility System Work? The City’s existing water and wastewater system consists of a piped network of distribution and collection mains, pumping stations, intake and outfall structures and treatment facilities – all as notionally shown in Figure 1. Currently, raw water is drawn from the North Saskatchewan River within the province of Alberta and pumped to the City’s water treatment facility located in Saskatchewan. Water quality is improved at the water treatment facility to potable standards and then distributed to the various residential, industrial and commercial customers through a network of pressure watermains. Wastewater is collected from the same residential, industrial and commercial customers using a network of trunk sewer mains, which gravity feed to the wastewater treatment and lagoon system in the City’s far northeast area. From there, the quality of the wastewater (called effluent) is further improved prior to discharging back into the North Saskatchewan River in the province of Saskatchewan. Page | 3 www.lloydminster.ca The proposed wastewater treatment facility will need to comply with new WSA effluent water quality requirements, further enhancing the City’s commitment to protecting the environment and specifically, the North Saskatchewan River which is a valued source of water for several downstream users. Figure 1: Current Water and Wastewater Utility Systems Page | 4 www.lloydminster.ca Alignment with City Priorities City Administration believes that creation of the LUC aligns well with the priorities and plans created to guide the City well into the future. The City of Lloydminster continually strives toward achieving its vision to be “A world class community with unlimited opportunity.” Its mission speaks to achieving this vision - to “provide the highest quality of services through communication, innovation and dedication.” This vision and mission provide a solid foundation from which the City’s Strategic Plan was created. This Strategic Plan includes four long-term priorities: Strong Relationships; Vibrant City; Sustainable Infrastructure; and Healthy Financial Position. These priorities serve as a roadmap of where the City is heading as a community and how it aims to realize this vision. City Administration believes that developing a utility corporation for water and wastewater services is well aligned with, and will significantly support, these four priorities. Page | 5 Here’s how: Strong Relationships Through the LUC, the City will build partnerships that leverage the skills and assets of the City and combine them with complementary strengths of a strategic partner who shares its values. Vibrant City Ensuring the provision of safe, efficient and environmentally sensitive water and wastewater services is critical to ensuring a healthy and vibrant community. Sustainable Infrastructure The development of a utility corporation model with a strategic partner will provide long-term utility rate stability along with the capital financing required to build and sustain water and wastewater infrastructure well into the future. Healthy Financial Position The initial business case study concluded that developing a utility corporation with a strategic partner is financially viable and would eliminate the need to finance water and wastewater related debt on City accounts which will free up funds for other City needs. www.lloydminster.ca The initial business case notes that the level of borrowing required for ongoing water and wastewater investment cannot be funded within the existing City debt limits, particularly given the City’s need for other essential capital investments in the near term. Therefore, developing a utility corporation to provide water and wastewater services, a proven service delivery model throughout North America, will: Eliminate the need for debt financing on City accounts; Provide financing for all present and future City water and wastewater capital costs; and Avoid sharp increases in rates for the City water and wastewater ratepayers. Page | 6 Community Feedback Subsequent to Council’s review of the initial business case summary during the February 22nd, 2016 Council meeting, a “Your Voice” night was held on February 23rd, 2016 to obtain feedback on the LUC from the community. City staff provided information on the role of a utility corporation, the rationale for considering a utility corporation in partnership with EPCOR, how the LUC would meet the City’s objectives and finally, the potential impact to residents. City staff and EPCOR representatives met with residents to discuss the potential benefits, listen to any community concerns, and answer questions. Residents in attendance were provided with takeaway materials including a Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) sheet and were solicited to complete a questionnaire. Overall, conversations with residents at the session were very positive. Participants sought clarification on how a utility corporation would operate in the City, what the potential impacts would be on the residents and potential timelines for development of the utility corporation. www.lloydminster.ca Through discussion, three main questions emerged: Is the proposed utility corporation a P3 (Public-Private Partnership)? If not, how does it differ from a P3? How would the proposed LUC impact utility rates in the future? Did the City explore other options? Answers to these questions are provided below. Administration will continue to invite residents’ feedback on this initiative through the City website, social media and “Your Voice” initiatives. Key Clarifications In response to the questions received from various community partners and residents, the following additional information is intended to better inform the community about the LUC and provide clarification on key items. 2.4.1 Is This a Public-Private Partnership (P3)? No, the business arrangement contemplated is not a P3. A P3 is a project and service delivery model. Municipalities can engage with the private sector in a variety of ways for water and wastewater service delivery. These can be categorized by: Project Delivery; and Utility Ownership. The following sub-sections provide additional information on each of these categories. Page | 7 www.lloydminster.ca 2.4.1.1. Project Delivery Municipalities typically engage with the private sector through some form of project delivery model. In this way, the private sector partner may perform various aspects of utility services such as operations and maintenance or completion of large capital projects. Services that can be obtained from the private sector can be categorized broadly into: design, build, finance and operate. In the traditional model, an engineering consultant completes the design for the municipality and a construction contractor builds the facility. Project financing and asset operations and maintenance remain with the municipality. Alternative models combine engineering and construction contracts in a design-build package that is procured through a competitive proposal process. water and wastewater sector with one of the most recent being the City of Regina Wastewater Treatment Plant. As illustrated in Figure 2 below, the more involvement the private sector has in project delivery, the less technical and financial risk the municipality assumes. Regardless of which project delivery model is used, the municipality is the owner and the assets and any debt or liabilities associated with the project are the responsibility of the municipality. Figure 2: Project Delivery Models P3’s are a long-term performance-based approach to project delivery for public infrastructure where design, build, financing and operations can be provided by the private sector company. The private sector company assumes a major share of the risks related to financing, construction and long-term infrastructure performance through operations and maintenance. There are many examples of Public-Private Partnerships in the Page | 8 www.lloydminster.ca 2.4.1.2. Utility Ownership There are various general utility ownership models, and Figure 3 illustrates some. A public ownership model is where a municipality or municipalities wholly own the utility. This utility is either set up as a department within the municipality, as Lloydminster’s water and wastewater utilities are structured now within the Public Works department, or as a municipal utility corporation. On the other end of the spectrum is private ownership where a municipality is not involved in utility ownership, and rather, receives services through a privately owned utility company. The municipality maintains some control of the service through franchise agreements that allow the private utility to provide services to the community. Between these two extremes is the co-ownership model, such as the one Lloydminster is considering with EPCOR. In this proposed arrangement, the LUC would be co-owned by two publicly owned entities - the City Lloydminster and EPCOR a fully owned corporation of the City of Edmonton. The LUC will be responsible for all aspects of water and wastewater services including the capital works, finance, operations and maintenance and overall commercial management of the utilities. Figure 3: Utility Ownership Models Page | 9 www.lloydminster.ca The public co-ownership utility model is an innovative alternative that has been implemented in other non-water utilities in other jurisdictions. There are currently no examples of this coownership model in water utilities and the City of Lloydminster sees value in and is motivated to pioneer this unique “Made in Lloydminster” solution. 2.4.2 How Will the LUC Impact Utility Rates in the Future? One of the City’s key objectives in implementing a utility corporation for water and wastewater services is to ensure that utility rates are stable, fair, equitable and affordable for the ratepayers of Lloydminster moving forward. Currently, the City’s utility rates include a fixed and variable component. The fixed portion is determined by meter size, so customers pay their fixed charge based on the size of their meter. The variable charge is based on how much water is used and acts as a mechanism to promote water conservation. As noted in the City’s Water & Wastewater Rate Bylaw (2016-2018), Council approved a utility rate increase for fixed fees and a two-tiered rate increase for variable fees. The variable rate increase will be calculated on consumption levels Page | 10 per billing period of 1) up to 60 m3 and 2) over 60 m3. In this way, the cost to residential and commercial customers will largely be dependent on the quantity of water consumed. The current approved annual rate increases are summarized in Table 1 below. Table 1: Approved Utility Rate Increases Water and Wastewater Fee 2016 2017 2018 Fixed 2% 3% 3% Variable (up to 60m3*) 2% 3% 3% 6.6% 3% 3% Variable (60 m3 and over*) *per billing period Source: City of Lloydminster Water & Wastewater Rate Bylaw With the creation of the LUC, under the utility model, utility rates are based on the required utility revenue (see Section 4.2) and are determined through a regular rate filing and approval process. For the purpose of examining the viability of the LUC, utility rate increases have been projected to remain consistent with the current Water & Wastewater Rate Bylaw at 3% per year in the financial model. www.lloydminster.ca To better understand how current rates compare to those in other communities, a comparison of monthly water and wastewater utility bills was undertaken across a number of communities in both Alberta and Saskatchewan. Based on a consumption level of 20 m3 per month, the monthly utility bills ranged from $59.96 (Lethbridge) to $104.00 (Regina). The monthly bill for the City of Lloydminster is currently just above the average across the communities, as shown in Figure 4 below. Figure 4: Water and Wastewater Monthly Bill Comparison (based on 20m3/month) Regina $104.00 Wetaskiwin $101.79 Calgary $101.51 Edmonton $101.21 Red Deer $89.45 AVERAGE $86.80 Lloydminster $85.90 Saskatoon Yorkton Lethbridge $72.19 $66.03 $59.96 $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00 $100.00 $120.00 Source: City of Lloydminster Page | 11 www.lloydminster.ca 2.4.3 Did the City Explore Other Options? Yes, the City did explore other options. The City submitted a funding application under the Federal/Provincial infrastructure funding program and was not successful in obtaining adequate funding. The P3 option to deliver the wastewater treatment facility was not considered viable as the project cost would have had to be guaranteed by the City and the City does not have the debt capacity to assume this liability on its account. Additionally, the City desired to maintain its operating position and oversight of the water and wastewater utility. 2.4.4 What Will a New Wastewater Treatment Facility Cost? In 2014, the City identified that upgrading its wastewater treatment facility to accommodate 10 years of growth would cost approximately $47.2 million. Given the magnitude of the initial investment and the potential for grant funding the City submitted an application to the Building Canada Fund for a wastewater treatment facility project that would accommodate 20 years of growth in the amount of $74 million. The City subsequently commissioned a preliminary design study for the wastewater treatment facility upgrades. The recommended design incorporated a Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor (MBBR) treatment Page | 12 technology and assumed 20-years of population growth. The MBBR treatment process was selected as it provides a high quality effluent that the City could use to generate revenue from industry reclaimed water users. The estimated cost for this type of wastewater treatment facility upgrade was determined to be $94 million in late 2015. A value engineering study is currently underway to examine options for reducing the overall project costs and to identify if there is a possibility to phase the construction over time. Initial results from the value engineering study indicate that construction costs for the wastewater treatment facility could be reduced from $94 million to $73.8 million. These reductions are attributed to design revisions and incorporating a more conventional Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR) treatment process. Potential phasing options are currently under review with the objective being to further reduce the expected capital cost of the facility in the initial phase. In accordance with the City of Lloydminster Charter and the guiding Municipal Government Act in the province of Alberta, the debt limit of a municipality is based on the municipality’s total revenue. The initial business case assumed a total debt limit for the City of $134 million which was www.lloydminster.ca based on 2014 total revenue, as shown in Figure 5. Since then, it has been determined that the debt limit should be reduced to $114 million to reflect the City’s total revenue in 2015. Consequently, a maximum of $56 million of borrowing capacity is available - leaving a shortfall of $18 million in financing for the $73.8 million wastewater treatment facility project alone. Figure 5: Debt and Debt Capacity In addition to planned upgrades for the City’s wastewater treatment facility, the City has identified a number of other important capital project investments that will be required to support economic development, social programs and services, and positive environmental outcomes. Table 2 summarizes the capital project investments over and above the wastewater treatment facility that are anticipated over the next 10 years. These costs are conceptual and include engineering and contingency. The portion of costs that are attributable to developers is currently under review. Page | 13 www.lloydminster.ca Table 2: 10 Year Capital Plan Projects Economic Development Required Funding North-South Corridor $59,090,000 Regional Airport Expansion $15,000,000 Fibre To The Premises $36,000,000 Rail Grade Separation 62nd Ave and 52nd Street $30,000,000 Social Programs and Services Required Funding New Public Transit $3,500,000 Indoor Pool $45,000,000 Lloydminster Cultural and Science Centre $65,000,000 Environmental Required Funding Solid Waste Management Landfill $10,000,000 Dedicated Water Main $15,000,000 Water Treatment Facility Expansion $52,100,000 Cast Iron Replacement Program $20,000,000 LED Street Light Upgrade Financing the construction of the wastewater treatment facility and other capital project in the 10 year planning horizon using City debt is infeasible, taking into account: Available total debt capacity; The need for additional water and wastewater investment after the new wastewater treatment facility is built; and The need to preserve debt capacity for investments other than for water and wastewater infrastructure. 2.4.5 Is the City Following its Purchasing Policy? Yes. The City’s purchasing policy references the New West Partnership Trade Agreement which specifically exempts water services and investments pertaining to water. The City of Lloydminster has established that EPCOR is best positioned to complement the strengths that the City brings to the Lloydminster Utility Corporation. Further rationale for the decision to partner with EPCOR is provided in Section 3. $5,200,000 Source: City of Lloydminster Page | 14 www.lloydminster.ca 3. THE PARTNERSHIP Based on the initial business case analysis, the City should enlist a strategic partner to share the equity investment for two reasons: 1. If the City was to cover the full cost on its own, it will quickly exceed its borrowing limit; and 2. If the City became the sole shareholder of the LUC, its investment may be seen under current accounting rules, as City debt. In this case, the City debt limit would be exceeded. Given these considerations, the City has determined that a strategic partner will be required in order to implement the LUC. The City has identified EPCOR Utilities Inc. as its Strategic Partner of choice based on its ability to provide financing, major capital project expertise, experience with municipalities in Alberta and Saskatchewan, as well as common goals and priorities shared with the City. Page | 15 www.lloydminster.ca Figure 6 outlines how the Lloydminster Utility Corporation, in partnership between the City of Lloydminster and EPCOR, could be structured. The figure highlights the expected contributions and distributions for each partner, joint ownership in the LUC, the scope of services included in the LUC as well as ratepayer participation. Figure 6: Lloydminster Utility Corporation Structure Page | 16 www.lloydminster.ca What Does the City of Lloydminster Bring to the Partnership? The City has identified two principal areas of contributions in creating the Lloydminster Utility Corporation in partnership with EPCOR. Firstly, the City’s existing water and wastewater systems. Systems that have been decades in the making and paid for by the many residents, business owners and developers of the Lloydminster community. The accumulated depreciation of these assets is estimated at $79 million, and the contributed assets (assets contributed by developers and through grants) are estimated at $36 million. Secondly, the City’s people. The City brings a team of passionate individuals who bring unmatched knowledge of the existing systems and are passionate about living in the City and providing reliable water and wastewater services to the citizens of Lloydminster. 3.1.1 Water and Wastewater Assets Utility corporations use the value of their existing assets to generate revenue. The gross book value (before depreciation) of the City’s water and wastewater system, as of October 31, 2015, is reported to be $192 million as shown in Figure 7. Page | 17 www.lloydminster.ca Together with the capital work in progress this results in approximately $77 million in net water and wastewater assets, which represents the maximum possible initial Rate Base. These concepts are described further in Sections 4.4 and 4.5. A portion of the $77 million in potential “Rate Base” assets will be vended into the LUC as earning assets. The remainder of the City’s water and wastewater assets will also be vended into the LUC as non-earning assets. Figure 7: Existing Water and Wastewater Assets The City’s water and wastewater assets are critical to the success of the Lloydminster Utility Corporation – in terms of both generating the required revenue and continuing to provide reliable service to the citizens of Lloydminster. Page | 18 www.lloydminster.ca 3.1.2 Our People The City’s people are the foundation of the success of its utilities. The City has invested heavily in training and development, and our people possess the local knowledge and expertise to deliver services. In this model, Distribution and Collection, Wastewater Treatment, and Water Treatment teams together with the City’s Utility Engineer will become employees of the Lloydminster Utility Corporation, under CUPE 1015, and will continue to provide world class service to our residents. In collaboration with CUPE Local 1015, we are committed to a solution that is in the best interests of the City's most valuable asset – our people. It is imperative that our team of caring individuals who have chosen to make Lloydminster their home have the training, support and resources necessary to be successful in their career path. This will be done through open, consistent and regular dialogue both with CUPE at a local, national and provincial level, and all of our teams who are working hard every day to ensure that residents have the highest quality of services. The City’s teams contribute to the communities where they live and work and are proud to call Lloydminster home. Whether it's sitting on a local planning committee, serving as a board member of a non-profit organization, volunteering at community events or hosting a staff fundraiser, City staff are committed and dedicated to making a difference. Page | 19 www.lloydminster.ca What Does EPCOR Bring to the Partnership? Why EPCOR as a Partner? The City identified EPCOR as its strategic partner of choice. EPCOR offers: 1. Financial ability to meet the investment needed to achieve the long-term funding objectives; and 2. Major capital project and utility expertise as the City’s water and wastewater infrastructure continues to grow in scale and complexity. EPCOR is a utility company that provides water, wastewater and electrical utility services and is wholly owned by the City of Edmonton. EPCOR currently serves over 1.9 million people in 100 communities across Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia as well as 29 jurisdictions in the United States. Its core expertise is in water management, providing services in areas including drinking water, domestic wastewater as well as water reclamation and reuse. EPCOR also invests in water related assets through Design Build Finance Operate projects, capital leases, Public-Private Partnerships and regulated investor-owned utilities. EPCOR has achieved success as a municipally-owned utility company Page | 20 and is motivated to implement similar “coownership” models in other municipalities throughout Canada. EPCOR has a proven track record of delivering projects on time and on budget, and understands day-to-day operational impacts. For example, in Regina, EPCOR is responsible for constructing, financing and operating a new wastewater treatment plant planned for completion in December 2016. In Kananaskis, EPCOR constructed upgraded water and wastewater treatment plants, completed in July 2014, and continues to operate and maintain the facilities. In addition to providing operations and maintenance services to various municipalities in western Canada, EPCOR invests in significant capital projects at its E.L. Smith and Rossdale water treatment plants, its Gold Bar wastewater treatment plant and its water distribution and transmission system in the City of Edmonton. www.lloydminster.ca As a strategic partner, EPCOR aligns well with the values and growth strategies of the City of Lloydminster. EPCOR is committed to protecting public health and the environment, ensuring financial sustainability, providing opportunities for people through training, and being responsible to ratepayers for providing reasonable rates for the services they provide. In addition to having shared values and community growth strategies, EPCOR has significant experience operating water and wastewater utilities in both Alberta and Saskatchewan. EPCOR’s technical and financial expertise, as well as access to capital investment funds, will bring value to the City’s evolving operational needs. While the LUC will be the employer of the staff, EPCOR as a partner and co-owner has many years of experience in working with unions. In 1996, the City of Edmonton converted the City of Edmonton Water Branch to an entity that eventually became known as EPCOR. All of the existing management and union staff were transferred to this new entity. EPCOR works proactively with many bargaining units across various provinces to provide a positive work environment and fair compensation terms. Historically, EPCOR has worked with three large unions, IBEW 1007, CSU 52 and CUPE 30. While IBEW is the largest union in EPCOR Utilities employee base, CUPE is the largest union in the EPCOR Water Canada employee base. In addition to the larger Edmonton groups, EPCOR also has water employees represented by CUPE 21 in Regina and CUPE 2038 in Taber. Page | 21 www.lloydminster.ca 4. BUSINESS CASE ANALYSES The City and EPCOR jointly commissioned the development of the business case to examine the financial viability and non-financial considerations associated with creating the LUC. Again, the City’s objective in pursuing the development of a utility corporation is to provide a solution that will: Eliminate the need to fund water and wastewater infrastructure using City debt; Provide the required financing for all future City water and wastewater capital and operating costs; and Avoid sharp increases in rates for City water and wastewater ratepayers. Financial Model Overview A financial model was independently developed by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to support the business case and demonstrates viability of the LUC. It is an Excel-based model that employs a number of inputs and assumptions to calculate the financials of the utility corporation. These financials include the required revenue under the utility model and the equity investments and cash flow requirements over the planning horizon of the capital infrastructure master plans. The financial model uses a variety of assumptions and Page | 22 a number of technical inputs from relevant historical and ongoing infrastructure plans - all provided by the City and EPCOR. The model was developed to examine the viability of the utility corporation and the sensitivity of the assumptions used in the model. The current financial model is not intended to be a detailed model for the purpose of informing a financial transaction between the City and EPCOR. Several simplifying assumptions, as outlined in Section 4.3, were made in the financial model to allow the City and EPCOR to efficiently examine the viability of the LUC. Further due diligence is required to determine the appropriate inputs and assumptions for the financial model used to finalize the financial transaction and term sheets, as noted in Section 5 of this report. The Utility Corporation Model Utility corporations are separate entities from municipalities, although they may be owned in whole or in part by municipalities. A utility corporation provides utility infrastructure and services and earns the required revenue through rates charged to customers. Municipalities see value in the utility corporation model for a variety of reasons. Under specific www.lloydminster.ca conditions the utility corporation’s debt is not attributed back to the municipality – this is a key objective for the City of Lloydminster. The utility corporation approach allows City income and debt capacity to be available for other important municipal investments such as roads, parks and recreational facilities. Central East Regional Water, Aquatera and the Sheep River Regional Utilities Corporation. A utility corporation model works quite differently from the City’s traditional municipal water and wastewater model. In both models, utility rates are set based on the required revenue; however the components of the required revenue differ. Figure 8 highlights some of the differences in required revenue between the traditional municipal model and the utility model. Figure 8: Required Revenue: Municipal vs Utility Model The LUC would assume all responsibilities for continued delivery of water and wastewater services in the City, and for all investment in the infrastructure required to provide these services going forward according to City growth requirements and good utility practices. The utility corporation model has been successfully used by a number of municipalities and is a well understood model for utilities. Once established, utility corporations are typically viewed as credit worthy by lenders. In fact, there are a number of examples of successful utility corporations throughout Alberta and Western Canada including; EPCOR Utilities Inc., SaskWater, Alberta Page | 23 www.lloydminster.ca In both the utility corporation model and the municipal model, required revenue ultimately comes from ratepayers and as noted in Figure 8, operations and maintenance costs are part of the required revenue each year for both models. However, the funding and cost of capital expenditures are determined differently in the two models. Under a municipal model the required revenue for the year must be sufficient to fund any required capital expenditures and any associated debt servicing (principal and interest payments). Shortfalls in the required revenue must be funded through other municipal sources (taxes, other department budgets, etc.) or through debt. Under the utility corporation model, capital expenditures for the year are funded through debt and equity. Capital recovery occurs over time through the inclusion of depreciation (principal), interest on debt and return on equity in the utility’s required revenue. By recovering depreciation in the required revenue, the asset principal costs are spread over the asset life. For the purposes of determining the required revenue under the utility corporation model, depreciation, interest on debt and return on Page | 24 equity are calculated on ‘Rate Base’. Therefore the utility’s Rate Base is considered to be the ‘earning assets’ of the utility and that which derives the ‘value’ of the utility. The Rate Base can include both fixed assets (net of depreciation and contributions) and working capital. A utility corporation raises all capital required to deliver on its mandate, including debt and equity. The utility corporation would borrow from lenders according to sound utility treasury practice under prevailing capital market conditions and as based on the corporation’s creditworthiness. The utility corporation would raise equity through investment from its shareholder(s). A rate stabilization fund is another item that can make up required revenue under the utility corporation model. In situations where large capital investments are required, a rate stabilization fund is commonly used to smooth rates over time, keeping rate increases predictable and gradual. Under the municipal model, capital reserves can play a similar role; however, reserves are generally used specifically for capital replacement and not to stabilize rates. Further, in circumstances where a large capital investment is required, the municipality would have to build www.lloydminster.ca Key Assumptions reserves for a significant number of years to accumulate enough to fund the expenditure. Utility corporations are regulated to ensure that ratepayer interests are protected. Under the utility model, a regulatory authority approves rates charged by the utility corporation through a rate filing and approval process. Rates are based on the required revenue of the utility. There are at least two potential regulatory authority options, both of which are established in Alberta utility practice. The utility may be regulated by the: Alberta Utilities Commission (a provincial body); or Municipality according to appropriate bylaw(s) and agreement(s). The appropriate regulatory framework for the LUC is currently under review. Page | 25 Several assumptions were used for the inputs and development of the financial model for this initial business case. The intent of this section is to provide a brief description of the notable key assumptions and how each relates to the financial viability of the LUC. The financial viability model assumptions are thought to be conservative with the intent that the financials of the business case becomes increasingly positive as assumptions are validated. Population Growth – This is the annual rate at which the number of individuals living in the City of Lloydminster increases as a percentage of the initial population. Population growth is affected by four factors: births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The City’s Comprehensive Growth Strategy (August 2013) included a summary of the City’s average population growth rates over various intervals from 2011, ranging from the past 5 years to the past 50 years as shown in Table 3. www.lloydminster.ca The rate of population growth is used to estimate water consumption which directly impacts the annual required revenue and the associated required rate increases. It also impacts the timing of growth related infrastructure upgrades as well as the assumptions around the timing of collection of offsite levies. Table 3: Average Population Growth, Selected Timeframe to 2011 Timeframe Ending in 2011 Average Annual Growth Rate Last 50 years 3.2% Last 45 years 3.1% Last 40 years 2.9% Last 35 years 2.9% Last 30 years 1.8% Last 25 years 1.9% Last 20 years 2.4% Last 15 years 2.6% Last 10 years 2.9% Last 5 years 3.0% Consumption per customer – This is the number of cubic meters of water that each customer consumes. For the purposes of this model, consumption is assumed to hold constant with the 2016 budgeted levels. Changes in customer usage such as reductions through conservation efforts will impact this assumption. Together with population growth this impacts the estimated water consumption which directly impacts the annual required revenue and the associated required rate increases, and also impacts the timing of growth related infrastructure upgrades. Water and Wastewater Rate Increases – Water and wastewater utility rates pay for all the items included in the required revenue as described in Section 4.2. This variable represents the annual water and wastewater rate increases. For the purpose Source: City of Lloydminster Comprehensive Growth Strategy The City’s Comprehensive Growth Strategy projects an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.1% through to 2041. Due to current economic conditions, the annual population growth for 2016 is assumed to be 0% and then 2.1% is used through to 2041. Page | 26 www.lloydminster.ca of examining the viability of the LUC, utility rate increases were modeled to remain consistent with the Water & Wastewater Rate Bylaw at 3% per year. In the financial model, water and wastewater rate increases are based on the annual required revenue. As noted throughout this section, variations in all of the assumptions impact the annual required revenue and therefore would have a direct impact on the annual water and wastewater rate increases. Offsite Levies – Offsite levies are fees developers pay to cover the cost of future infrastructure required to service their development, but are not located on their property – for example upsizing a major wastewater trunk main. Capital plans for water and wastewater were developed through the City’s recent master planning studies that also identified the allocation of benefit to future growth areas. Using projected growth rates, the model anticipates future offsite levy collection amounts over time and in turn determines the carrying costs of delivering the projects prior to the necessary funds being in place. The financial model assumes that offsite levies are sufficient to fund all capital expected to be funded from off-site levies Page | 27 over the model period and therefore assumes the offsite levies are appropriately set to recover these amounts. Further review is required to ensure that the offsite levy assumptions used in the model will align with the City’s proposed offsite levy bylaw (currently in draft form). Changes to the various offsite levy assumptions will impact the annual required revenue. Water and Wastewater Capital Projects – These are projects that sustain the existing infrastructure for the water and wastewater systems, as well as expand these systems in the future in response to growth or new regulatory conditions. Changes to the assumptions for capital projects will impact the required revenue as depreciation, interest and returns are included in required revenue. Municipal capital projects fall into three main categories: o Sustaining Capital – These capital investments are required over time to renew or replace existing infrastructure that is at the end of its useful life. For the purpose of the business case, the investment in sustaining capital is expressed as a percentage of total capital costs and www.lloydminster.ca was developed based on current industry best practices. agencies as well as the City’s water and wastewater policies. These costs include all costs to operate, maintain, and administer the water and wastewater infrastructure and the utility corporation itself. While the City’s existing operating costs are well understood and have been used in the financial model, the complexity of the City’s water and wastewater systems will increase as advanced treatment facilities are constructed. Future operating costs have been informed by EPCOR based on experience operating similar water and wastewater systems. Changes in the operating costs will impact the annual required revenue. o Growth Capital – This refers to capital projects that are required to provide service to future growth areas in a community. Growth capital projects could be associated with new residential, commercial, or industrial developments in the City. The costs for these capital projects are summarized in Section 2.4.4. o New Regulatory Capital – These capital projects are required in response to changing regulatory requirements. Regulatory changes could be imposed at the federal, provincial or even municipal level. For example, the City’s new wastewater treatment facility is required in order to comply with Saskatchewan Water Security Agency’s (WSA) effluent water quality requirements, which come into effect in July of 2017. Operating Costs - Operating costs include all water and wastewater system costs associated with providing a level of service that meets the standards of regulatory Page | 28 Level of Service – The level of service for municipal water and wastewater systems refers to the quality, quantity, capacity, reliability, accessibility, and affordability of the service that is being provided. Any changes to those levels of service could have an impact the timing, cost and type of projected capital projects, as well as on the operating costs required to meet the levels of service, both of which impact the required revenue. www.lloydminster.ca Other Revenue Sources – This refers to water and wastewater related revenue that the City currently receives outside of taxation, fees and charges, grants and developer contributions. This includes fire hydrant rentals, and bulk water sales. The revenue received from the Husky Energy Raw Water Servicing Agreement (circa 1991) is another example. Some of these other revenue sources may have undesirable taxation implications for the utility corporation and therefore further due diligence is required around taxation and accounting rules related to the other source revenues. The amount of other revenue has an impact to the amount of required revenue needed to be funded by rates and therefore impacts the annual water and wastewater rate increases. Cost of Debt – The borrowing cost is based on the interest rate charged on debt by the lenders of the LUC. The interest rate is currently assumed to be 4.67%, which is representative of borrowing rates for established regulated utility companies in Canada. The actual cost of debt for the LUC will be determined based on lenders’ assessment of the creditworthiness of the LUC, which is based on a variety of factors. Variations in the interest rate will impact the required revenue, since the actual cost of debt is used to determine required revenue. Return on Equity – Similar to an interest rate, the return on equity is a defined percentage return on the investment shareholders make in the LUC. The return on equity is meant to provide the shareholder with a fair return for their investment for the associated investment risk. The return on equity is currently assumed to be 8.3% which is consistent with Alberta utility practice as reported by the Alberta Utilities Commission. Variations in the return on equity will impact the required revenue. Non-taxable Entity - At this time, the LUC is assumed to be non-taxable and therefore no income taxes have been modeled or included in the required revenue. This matter is under study and changes in this assumption would impact the required revenue. Debt to Equity Ratio: The relationship between debt and equity (the “Capital Page | 29 www.lloydminster.ca Structure”) is defined as the proportions of debt and equity funding the operations of a company, expressed as a ratio of Debt:Equity (which, when combined, will equal 100). The Capital Structure is assumed to be 60% debt and 40% equity, consistent with Alberta and Saskatchewan utility practice. Regulatory Authority – The current financial model and business case assumes that the LUC is regulated by the City of Lloydminster for both water and wastewater services. A change in this assumption may impact some of the other assumptions used in the model. These assumptions were developed to examine both the financial viability, as well as the implications associated with creating the LUC. Further due diligence is required to examine the reliability and sensitivity of the assumptions and to further refine the details of the financial model informing the development of the LUC and the associated agreements in partnership with EPCOR. 30 Net Value of Water and Wastewater Assets Under a utility corporation model, the utility is allowed to earn a return on its Rate Base. A utility is not allowed to earn a return on capital that it has already recovered or that it never paid for originally. Therefore, the Rate Base, or ‘earning assets’ is determined based on the gross book value of assets, less accumulated depreciation, less grants and contributed assets. The gross book value (before depreciation) of the City’s water and wastewater system, as of October 31, 2015, is reported to be $192 million including contributed assets (assets paid for by developers and/or through grants) and $2 million in capital work in progress that is estimated to exist at the time of the LUC creation. Accumulated depreciation is estimated at $79 million, and the net book value of the total asset base after depreciation is reported at $113 million as shown in Figure 9. is not allowed to earn a return on capital that it has already recovered or that it never paid for originally. Therefore, the Rate Base, or ‘earning assets’ is determined based on the gross book possible initial Rate Base for the LUC. The actual amount of grants and contributions received by the City is not currently known but for the purposes of this initial business case the value has been estimated at $36 million. Together with the capital work in progress this results in approximately $77 million in net assets, which represents the maximum possible initial Rate Base as shown in Figure 9. Figure 9: Existing Water and Wastewater Assets The City has received both grants and contributions in the form of offsite levies. The value of these must be excluded from the Rate Base; therefore, the value of all grants and contributions must be deducted from the net book value in order to determine the maximum Page | 31 www.lloydminster.ca The City is estimated to have approximately $10 million in debt specific to water and wastewater services at the time the LUC is created. As part of the initial formation of the corporation, the City would transfer all assets to the LUC along with the associated debt as the LUC would become the owner of all water and wastewater assets. The financial model determines the appropriate amount of assets to assign to Rate Base (up to the maximum possible initial Rate Base of $77 million) based on the various assumptions identified in Section 4.3 including the annual water and wastewater rate increases. The value of the initial investment into Rate Base by EPCOR is determined by the amount of assets that are assigned to Rate Base less any associated debt. While the non-Rate Base assets have an intrinsic value they are not considered as part of the initial investment into Rate Base. The specifics of how the non-rate base assets will be accounted for in the transaction and partnership will be decided during term sheet and definitive agreement development. Page | 32 Base Scenario - Assets into Rate Base As noted in Section 4.4, the financial model determines the appropriate amount of assets to assign to Rate Base based on the various assumptions identified in Section 4.3. Assigning the full $77 million in net assets to Rate Base would have an impact on the required revenue and ultimately increase the water and wastewater utility rates. The higher the value of assets in Rate Base, the more debt and equity required – this increases the interest and return that must be generated from the required revenue. Apart from the limited other revenue sources as described in Section 4.3, the only way to generate revenue is through the rates. The portion of the net assets assigned to Rate Base occurs at the time of the creation of the LUC and forms the basis for initial financial investment into Rate Base and therefore cannot subsequently change. It is important when determining the financial investment to ensure that the portion of the net assets originally brought into the Rate Base is limited so that excessive rate increases are not required to fund future capital requirements including the new wastewater treatment facility. Future capital investments and sustaining capital www.lloydminster.ca required to construct new infrastructure will be added to Rate Base and must also be funded by utility rates. To determine viability in this business case, a key objective was to hold the maximum annual water and wastewater increases in revenue to 4.7%, which with the projected population growth rate of 2.1%, results in utility rate increases of 3%. To achieve this objective, the financial model estimates that approximately 45% of the $77 million in net assets can be assigned to the Rate Base of the LUC. As shown in Figure 10, this equates to $36 million in assets (including the capital work in progress) being assigned to Rate Base. Figure 10: Base Scenario Rate Base & Recapitalization Page | 33 www.lloydminster.ca The City will also transfer debt associated with assets in the amount of $10 million resulting in a net value of assets brought by the City into the Rate Base of $26 million, as shown in Figure 10. The business plan contemplates the City and EPCOR incorporating the LUC as 50/50 equity partners. In the context of EPCOR’s initial investment in the Rate Base, the $26 million net value of assets in the Rate Base represents the starting value of equity. As such, EPCOR’s initial investment in the Rate Base would be $13 million (see Figure 11), which will be paid to the City to cover half of the net value of assets that the City brings to the Rate Base. Figure 11: Initial Investment & Equity Share Page | 34 www.lloydminster.ca An additional step in establishing the LUC is the restructuring of the $36 million in assets assigned to Rate Base so that it meets the 60/40 recommended debt to equity ratio. As shown in Figure 10, the debt portion of the LUC is estimated at $21.6 million which includes the $10 million in existing debt being transferred from the City to the LUC ($11.6 million in new debt). The recapitalization would result in an estimated $14.4 million initial equity position held equally between the City and EPCOR ($7.2 million each) as shown in Figure 11. The proceeds from debt recapitalization are allocated to the City and EPCOR in equal parts of $5.8 million each as shown in Figure 11. Therefore, at the start-up of the corporation the City, as equity partner in the LUC, will have approximately $18.8 million from the initial equity investment and debt proceeds from the recapitalization that it may place in reserve to fund future equity requirements for the LUC (see Figure 11). Page | 35 Investments in the future capital needs of the LUC will be shared by the City and EPCOR and the parties’ respective share of the equity of the LUC will vary as a function of future investments. As noted in Section 4.2, a rate stabilization fund is commonly used in the utility model to help keep utility rate increases predictable and gradual. Figure 12 illustrates the projected revenue requirements associated with the base scenario between 2017 and 2031 as well as the impact that the rate stabilization account has in terms of maintaining consistent rate increases. Figure 12: Rate Stabilization Fund – Base Scenario ASSUMES 3% ANNUAL UTILITY RATE INCREASE www.lloydminster.ca The sharp required revenue increases through 2017-2020 is largely associated with the new wastewater treatment plant both to cover the depreciation, interest and return on the capital and the increased operations and maintenance costs resulting from the increased treatment complexity associated with the facility. However, the LUC’s required revenue varies from year to year mainly as a function of the projected annual capital program. Page | 36 It is important to note that in this initial business case utility rate increases have been assumed to remain constant at 3% per year. In years where the “required revenue” is less than the “total revenue”, the surplus is held in the rate stabilization fund. In years where the “required revenue” is greater than the “total revenue”, the surplus is withdrawn from the rate stabilization fund. In this way, ratepayers are not exposed to sharp increases in rates to accommodate capital program needs. www.lloydminster.ca Capital Project Funding Capital projects sustain the existing infrastructure for the City’s water and wastewater systems and expand these systems in the future in response to growth or new regulatory conditions. Municipal capital projects fall into three main categories; sustaining capital, new regulatory capital and growth capital as described in Section 4.3. Under the utility model, funding for these projects is derived from three different sources including: The City and EPCOR in the form of equity; Lenders in the form of debt; and Developers through the payment of offsite levies (associated with growth capital). Figure 13 illustrates the relationship between the various sources of funding, the LUC, and the capital projects. Figure 13: Capital Project Funding Page | 37 www.lloydminster.ca Sensitivity Analyses As noted in Section 4.5, there is a direct relationship between the amount of assets being assigned to Rate Base and the annual rate increases. If the City increases the assets brought into Rate Base, it must also increase the utility rates to generate the required revenue. The base scenario assumes that $36 million of the potential $77 million in net assets can be assigned to the Rate Base. Under this scenario a 4.7% increase is required annually to the estimated total revenue. This scenario incorporates the assumptions noted in Section 4.3 including an average population growth rate of 2.1% which allows for the annual increase in utility rates to be maintained at 3%. Two additional options were considered to see what would happen if the City brought more assets into the initial Rate Base. Figure 14 summarizes the implications associated with assigning $45 million and $60 million to the Rate Base. Figure 14: Potential Initial Rate Base Options Page | 38 www.lloydminster.ca In all three options, the franchise fee, taxes/transfers, depreciation of assets and operations and maintenance expenses of the LUC are identical. The only changes to the required revenue of the LUC are the return on equity and the cost of debt associated with each different Rate Base value. It is also worth noting that if annual population growth rates were less than the anticipated 2.1% this could have the effect of higher utility rates. Short duration periods of low growth rates could be absorbed by the rate stabilization fund, however, extended low growth periods would result in higher utility rates to generate the required revenue of the LUC. The estimated annual utility rate increases associated with assigning $45 million and $60 million to the Rate Base are 3.5% and 4.3%, respectively. These two options are not consistent with the City’s current Water and Wastewater Page | 39 Rate Bylaw that limits rate increases to 3% per year. Viability The results of the initial business case demonstrate that developing a utility corporation to provide water and wastewater service in Lloydminster would: Maintain reasonable water and wastewater rate growth; Provide for funding of future water and wastewater infrastructure without incurring additional City debt; Allow a Strategic Partner to invest equity in the utility corporation and provide support and experience in developing a utility corporation; and Provide the City with revenue that may be used to advance other City priorities. www.lloydminster.ca Impact to Overall City Finances The creation of the Lloydminster Utility Corporation has an impact on both the operating and capital budgets of the City. With respect to capital budgets, the LUC allows the City to utilize debt capacity for other city priorities such as roads, parks and facilities. The debt capacity of the City is based on the municipality’s total revenue. After formation of the LUC, revenues previously attributable to the City in the amount of $18.5 million annually (2016 budget) will become dedicated to the LUC and will not be taken into consideration for the cities debt limit. The City’s debt limit will be reduced by $28 million as a result. Existing utility debt of $10 million will be removed from the balance sheet resulting in an overall reduction of debt capacity of $18 million. This will reduce the existing debt capacity of $56 million (Figure 5) to $38 million. It is important to note that without the creation of the LUC the City would need to utilize its entire debt capacity to construct the new wastewater treatment facility - preventing the City’s ability to fund other priority capital projects (see Table 2). With respect to operating budgets the City currently benefits from net utility revenues in the Page | 40 amount of $4.1 million annually (2016 budget). These net revenues (total revenue less total expenses) are redirected from the utility to cover other City operating expenses. Within the utility model all net revenue of the utility is required to remain within the utility to fund capital expenditures. The City of Lloydminster will benefit from the following sources of revenue from the LUC (dividends, return on equity, property taxes and franchise fees). The business case assumes that a portion of the dividends, return on equity and property tax revenues are re-invested into the LUC in order for the City to meet future cash calls for equity. The franchise fees are assumed as a defined release to the City of Lloydminster in the amount of $250,000 annually. It has been identified that the City of Lloydminster will require a period of time to transition from net utility revenues of $4.1 million to $250,000. It is anticipated that a combination of funds resulting from the initial investment in Rate Base and net revenues from the portion of dividends, return on equity and property taxes not required for equity cash calls will provide the financing required for this transition strategy. A transition strategy will be developed in future phases of the LUC business case. www.lloydminster.ca 5. NEXT STEPS Completion of the initial business case and demonstrating the financial viability of the Lloydminster Utility Corporation in partnership with EPCOR represents an important milestone. Administration is seeking a resolution from Council at its upcoming meeting on March 28th, 2016 to continue with the creation of the Lloydminster Utility Corporation in partnership with EPCOR by developing a detailed financial model, term sheets and definitive agreements. The results presented in this initial business case are illustrative and use several key assumptions which require further due diligence. This process will include the review and refinement of inputs and key assumptions, as well as creation of a detailed financial model to inform the financial transaction between the City and EPCOR. Figure 15 outlines the three distinct phases associated with creating the utility corporation, along with the approximate timelines associated with each phase. The Figure also describes key areas of due diligence and how those variables are further refined through the second and third phases of the LUC development. Figure 15: Due Diligence Moving Forward The City will continue its due diligence to facilitate the development of the detailed financial model, term sheets and definitive agreements. Page | 41 www.lloydminster.ca In addition, as the development of the LUC progresses the City will address any other associated legal considerations and approvals including obtaining required Ministerial approvals and amendments to the City’s Charter and various Bylaws. Page | 42 The City of Lloydminster is committed to keeping citizens informed and educated on this topic and aware of how a utility corporation would benefit them moving forward. www.lloydminster.ca/LUC will continue to be the source for all public engagement opportunities connected to this initiative. The next Your Voice event will be held in May of 2016. www.lloydminster.ca
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