Assortment Planning for Vertically Differentiated Products Xiajun Amy Pan Department of Marketing and Supply Chain Management Henry W. Bloch School of Management University of Missouri at Kansas City 5110 Cherry St., Kansas City, MO 64110. E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 816-235-2892, Fax: 816-235-6506 Dorothée Honhon Department of Information, Risk, and Operations Management McCombs School of Business University of Texas at Austin CBA 3.440, 1 University Station, Austin, TX 78712. E-mail: [email protected] Phone: 512-471-4130, Fax: 816-235-6506 We consider the problem of a retailer managing a category of vertically differentiated products. The retailer has to pay a fixed cost for each product included in the assortment and a variable cost per product sold. Quality levels, fixed and variable costs are exogenously determined. Customers differ in their valuation of quality and choose the product (if any) that maximizes their utility. First, we consider a setting in which the selling prices are also fixed. We find that the optimal set of products to offer depends on the distribution of customer valuations and might include dominated products, i.e., products which are less attractive than at least one other product, on every possible dimension. We develop an efficient algorithm to identify an optimal assortment. Second, we consider a setting in which the retailer also determines the selling prices. We show that in this case the optimal assortment does not include any dominated product and does not vary with the distribution of customer valuations when there is no fixed cost. We develop several efficient algorithms to identify an optimal assortment and optimally price the products. We also test the applicability of our methods with realistic data for two product categories. Keywords: Assortment planning, Vertical differentiation, Quality, Pricing. History: Paper submitted in August 2010, first revision submitted in December 2010, second revision submitted in February 2011. Paper accepted in February 2011. 1 Introduction When choosing what products to carry in a given product category, retailers typically have to choose from hundreds, possibly thousands of variants, offered by dozens of different manufacturers. For instance, Newegg (www.newegg.com) carries more than 400 different USB flash drives and 1400 different televisions but these only represent a fraction of the existing products in the market as the retailer does not offer every brand and model. Selecting products to offer is a challenging problem for retailers, because customer choice depends on customer preferences as well as on the available assortment, and profit depends on sales and the relative profitability of products. A naive way to obtain the profit-maximizing assortment would be to enumerate all possible combinations of products and selling prices and identify the most profitable one. However, this method is not practical for popular product categories such as televisions and computers for which the number of possible products to choose from is very large. Hence, developing efficient methods to obtain a profit-maximizing assortment is very important and valuable for retailers. This paper addresses the problem of a retailer managing a category of vertically differentiated products. Each product is characterized by a quality level. All else equal, customers prefer a product with a higher quality level to a product with a lower quality level, but they differ in how they value quality. We assume that customers determine what product to buy by maximizing a linear utility function which is increasing in quality and their valuation of quality and is decreasing in price. While the retailer does not know how a specific customer values a unit of quality, she knows the distribution of customer valuations. The quality levels of the products are exogenously determined by the one or multiple manufacturers who supply the products to the retailer. The retailer pays the manufacturer(s) a variable cost per product sold and incurs a fixed cost per product included in the assortment. First, we examine the scenario where the selling prices are exogenous to the retailer and her only decision is to choose the set of products to be included in the assortment. This setting is motivated by product categories for which the manufacturers’ suggested retail prices (MSRP) are so prevalent that retailers do not deviate from it. Carlton and Chevalier (2001) state that while “manufacturers may not contractually bind the retailer to charge the MSRP [...] (they) may be willing to supply ‘exclusive’ products to retailers who adopt an across-the-board ‘no discounting’ policy”. The data that Carlton and Chevalier (2001) collect about the fragrance market show that a number of stores (namely upscale beauty and department stores) are charging the MSRP for the products they sell. We show that, when prices are exogenous to the retailer, the optimal assortment is a function of the distribution of 1 customer valuations for quality and can be obtained by solving a shortest path problem. Second, we consider the case where the retailer also decides the selling price of the products offered in her assortment, i.e., selling prices are endogenous variables. We show that the optimal assortment does not depend on the distribution of customer valuations for quality, as long as this distribution has an increasing failure rate and the fixed cost is negligible. We propose a number of algorithms to obtain the optimal assortment. The complexity of these algorithms depends on the value of the fixed cost and on properties of the distribution of customer valuations for quality. Third, we compare the optimal assortment in the two cases studied and obtain some interesting insights. In particular, we show that the optimal assortment may contain dominated products when prices are exogenous, but not when prices are endogenous. We say that a product is dominated if there exists a product with a higher quality level, lower variable cost, and (in the exogenous case only) higher selling price in the set of potential products to offer. We also demonstrate that the products included in the optimal assortment are such that the selling prices, profit margins and price-to-quality ratios are increasing in the quality level. Finally, we show that if the manufacturer(s) cannot supply some of the offered products anymore, it may be optimal for the retailer to include products which previously were not in the optimal assortment. However, it is never optimal to drop products which were previously offered that the manufacturer(s) can still supply. We show that most of our results are robust to the assumptions we made on the utility and profit functions. Finally, we address two practical considerations. We show that in both the exogenous and endogenous prices case, there is a need for fast algorithms which provide the optimal solution because the enumeration method quickly becomes unpractical as the number of products to choose from becomes large (greater than 20) and simple heuristics can perform arbitrarily badly, i.e., lead to an optimality gap of 100%. In addition, we demonstrate the applicability of our model through two numerical examples calibrated using realistic data. In general our results apply when a retailer sells vertically differentiated products, with quality levels exogenously determined by the manufacturer(s). The retailer has to determine the best assortment to offer given the MRSP(s) provided by the manufacturer(s). If the retailer does not deviate from these prices, then our results from Section 3 apply. If the retailer determines the selling prices as well as the assortment, our results from Section 4 apply. It is important to note that the exogenous price problem is not a special case of the endogenous price problem and vice versa. First order conditions can be used to solve for prices in the endogenous 2 prices case, but the resulting prices may be a function of the chosen assortment so that it is generally not possible to decouple the optimal prices and optimal assortment problems. As shown later, when prices are decision variables, we are able to establish more properties about the optimal assortment and develop more efficient algorithms to identify the optimal assortment. The paper that is most closely related to ours is that of Barghava and Choudhary (2001) who also consider the problem of selecting and pricing vertically differentiated products when quality levels are exogenously determined. However, our work differs from theirs in numerous ways. First, we consider a fixed cost and show that it is an important factor in determining the optimal assortment. Second, we consider the case of exogenous selling prices. Third, we provide a full characterization of the optimal assortment when prices are endogenous. In contrast, Barghava and Choudhary (2001) only provide a partial characterization of the optimal assortment when there is no fixed cost. They focus only on two special cases: when the optimal assortment contains only the highest quality product and when it contains all the products. In other words, while their work addresses the question “when does the optimal solution have a noteworthy structure?”, our work answers the more general question “how can we obtain the optimal solution for any given scenario and what are its properties?”. The rest of our paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we review the related literature. In Section 3 we present the exogenous prices model and develop an efficient algorithm to identify the optimal assortment. Section 4 contains the endogenous prices model and the corresponding results. In Section 5 we compare the two models, discuss interesting insights and the robustness of our model. Section 6 shows the necessity of developing our solution methods and Section 7 demonstrates the applicability of our model to a realistic setting. Section 8 concludes our work and provides directions for future research. All proofs are presented in the Appendix. 2 Literature Review Our work is at the intersection between two streams of research: the work on vertically differentiated products and the work on assortment planning. We first review the work on vertically differentiated products, and then discuss the relevant papers on assortment planning. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first paper that considers the problem of selecting products from a discrete set of vertically differentiated options when prices are fixed and the problem of selecting and pricing vertically differentiated products in the presence of a fixed cost when prices are decision variables. 3 Mussa and Rosen (1978) is, to our knowledge, the earliest work on vertical differentiated products. In this paper, the authors capture the heterogeneity of customers using a continuous valuation parameter θ. The utility that a customer with valuation θ gets from a product of quality q is θq, i.e., the utility function is linear. Assuming convex production cost, the authors show that price discrimination by offering products of different quality levels is optimal. Moorthy (1984) generalizes the utility and cost functions and uses discrete parameters to represent customer segments. He concludes that the firm may reduce the number of product versions offered in order to mitigate the cannibalization effect. Several other researchers, such as Green and Krieger (1985), and Dobson & Kalish (1988, 1993), use a limited number of customer segments to represent the market. The information about the number of customers and reservation price for products associated with each segment is assumed to be known. They formulate the problem as a mathematical programming model and develop heuristics to solve it. Assuming concave variable costs and considering a fixed setup cost for producing a batch of products, Netessine and Taylor (2007) examine how production technology impacts the optimal product line design. They demonstrate that cannibalization may lead to offering more products and higher quality in the presence of production technology. The papers mentioned above take the point of view of a manufacturer as it is assumed that the decision maker can pick any quality level for their products and possibly provide a continuous menu of quality-price combinations. In contrast, our work takes the point of view of a retailer and assumes that there is only a discrete set of quality levels from which the retailer can choose. Like these papers, we use a linear utility function but we do not make any assumption on the cost function and make only limited assumptions on the distribution of customer valuations in the endogenous prices case. Several other papers which study product differentiation problems incorporate issues we do not explore here, such as the presence of outside opportunities (see Chen and Seshadri (2007)), network effects on the versioning strategies (see, for example, Barghava and Choudhary (2004) and Jing (2007)), the optimal time to introduce product versions, i.e., either simultaneously or sequentially (see, for example, Moorthy and Png (1992) and Raghunathan (2000)) and the optimal pricing strategy in a dynamic setting (see Akcay et al. (2010)). Finally, a number of papers consider the problem of offering vertically differentiated products in a competitive setting (see, for example, Shaked and Sutton (1982), Moorthy (1988), Shugan (1989), Rhee (1996), and Jing (2006)). In assortment planning problems, a firm chooses what products to offer from a discrete set of potential products and customers have heterogenous preferences for these products. The papers usually differ in the consumer choice model that is used to represent customer preferences and the type of 4 substitution they assume. Most papers assume that products are horizontally rather than vertically differentiated, which means that two customers can have a different favorite product even if all products are offered at the same price. Since our work does not include the presence of inventory, we discuss the most closely related work on assortment planning, namely work that assumes static, assortment-based substitution. For a broader review of the topic (including papers that assume dynamic, stock-out based substitution), see Kök et al. (2008). Among the earliest papers on assortment planning, Pentico (1974) studies a one-dimensional assortment planning problem with downward substitution for stochastic demand and obtains the optimal solution with an assumption regarding the sequence of customer arrivals and a ‘no crossover’ assumption, which preclude dynamic substitution. Van Ryzin and Mahajan (1999) use the multinomial logit model to represent customer preferences for horizontally differentiated products and show that the optimal assortment includes a subset of the most popular products. Gaur and Honhon (2006) consider the same problem but use a locational choice model to represent customer preferences. They introduce a unimodal distribution of customers on the attribute space, and show that the products in the optimal assortment are equally spaced and need not include the most popular product. Smith and Agrawal (2000) consider this problem under stock-out based substitution but provide a solution method which assumes assortment-based substitution and use a choice model specified by first choice probabilities and a substitution matrix. Cachon et al. (2005) generalize the consumer choice process to incorporate search costs, and show that ignoring consumer search in demand estimation can result in an assortment with less variety and lower expected profit than the optimal solution. The papers mentioned so far all assume that prices are given. The following papers consider prices as decision variables. Hopp and Xu (2005) use a Bayesian Logit model to study the impact of modular design on the joint assortment planning and pricing problem under assortment-based substitution. They show that the optimal assortment for a risk-averse retailer is composed of the variants with the highest price markups. Maddah and Bish (2007) consider a similar setting and propose a dominance relationship for the general case that simplifies the search for an optimal assortment. Aydin and Porteus (2008) study the joint assortment and pricing problem under price-based substitution with a demand model involving multiplicative uncertainty. Alptekinoglu and Corbett (2008) use the locational choice model to study competitive product positioning and pricing. 5 3 The Exogenous Prices Case As mentioned in the Introduction, this setting applies, for example, when the retailer is not able to or not willing to deviate from the MSRP and hence, the selling prices are exogenous to the retailer. In this section, we present the model, analyze the optimal assortment structure, and develop an efficient algorithm to identify the optimal solution. 3.1 Model We consider a product category with n vertically differentiated products. Let qj denote the quality of product j. The quality level can also be regarded as a combination of many of the product’s characteristics if the product has many characteristics, which is a common assumption in the literature on vertically differentiated products. Without loss of generality we assume that 0 ≤ q1 < q2 < ... < qn .1 Let rj ≥ 0 and cj ≥ 0 be the selling price and variable cost of product j respectively. Note that we do not assume that cj ≥ cj−1 . Let K ≥ 0 be a fixed cost incurred for each product that is offered. In practice K includes, for example, the cost of advertising the product. For notational convenience, let 0 be a fictitious product 0 with q0 = c0 = r0 = 0. Let ~r = (r1 , ..., rn ), ~c = (c1 , ..., cn ), and ~q = (q1 , ..., qn ). We assume that customers are characterized by their willingness to pay for one unit of quality in the product category, or valuation. A customer with valuation θ gets utility θqj − rj from buying one unit of product j and zero for additional units. Without loss of generality, we assume that the utility of buying nothing is equal to zero. A customer buys the product which gives him the highest utility as long as it is positive. The retailer cannot identify the specific θ value for any customer, but knows the distribution of θ. Let f (θ) and F (θ) with support [θ, θ̄] denote the probability density function and cumulative density function of customer valuations respectively, where θ ≥ 0 and 0 < θ̄ ≤ ∞. In the exogenous prices model, ~r, ~ q and ~c are given and fixed. It is assumed that cj < rj < θqj for j = 1, ..., n; otherwise, it would be optimal not to stock product j since cj ≥ rj would imply a negative profit margin and rj qj ≥ θ would imply that no customer gets a positive utility from product j. Note that we do not exclude the possibility that two products i, j are such that ri < rj and qi > qj (better quality for a lower price). The retailer’s decision is to determine which products to offer. Let S denote the set of products that are offered, or assortment. We summarize our notation in Table 1. 1 All of our results would continue to hold if we had qj = qj+1 for some j but, for ease of exposition, we ignore this case. 6 Symbol n j qj cj rj q~ ~c ~ r θ f (θ) Definition Number of potential products in the category Product index, j = 1, ..., n Quality level of product j Variable cost of product j Selling price of product j Quality vector Variable cost vector Selling price vector Consumer valuation, ∈ [θ, θ̄] Probability density fct of consumer valuation Symbol F (θ) h(θ) η(θ) θj Pj S S∗ K EΠ EΠ∗ Definition Cumulative distribution function of consumer valuation Failure rate of distribution F (θ) Inverse failure rate Valuation of consumer indifferent btw j − 1 and j Purchase probability of product j Assortment, i.e., set of products offered Optimal assortment Fixed cost Retailer’s expected profit Retailer’s optimal expected profit Table 1: Notation Let Pj (S) be the proportion of customers who purchase product j given assortment S, or purchase R θ̄ probability. We have Pj (S) = θ I{qj θ − rj = maxi∈S (qi θ − ri ) and qj θ − rj > 0}dF (θ) if j ∈ S and 0 otherwise, where I{A} is the indicator function for event A. In theory, it is possible to have Pj (S) = 0 for j ∈ S, that is, product j is offered but no customer buys it. In this case, removing product j does not affect the demand for other products and it decreases the total fixed cost; therefore, the optimal assortment never includes a product with zero purchase probability. It follows that one can restrict the search for the optimal assortment to sets S = {j1 , j2 , ..., jm } such that j1 < j2 < ... < jm and θ≤ rj − rjm−1 rj 1 rj − rj1 < 2 < ... < m < θ̄, qj1 qj2 − qj1 qjm − qjm−1 (1) which are necessary and sufficient conditions for Pji (S) > 0 for i = 1, ..., m since rji+1 − rji rji − rji−1 Pji (S) = F −F for i = 1, ..., m − 1, qji+1 − qji qj − qji−1 i rjm − rjm−1 . Pjm (S) = 1 − F qjm − qjm−1 (2) (3) where j0 = 0. Figure 1 illustrates an example with three products. Consumers in Group A are such that θ≤θ≤ r1 q1 and purchase nothing since they get a non-positive utility from every product. Consumers in Group B are such that r1 q1 <θ≤ r2 −r1 q2 −q1 and purchase product 1 because it gives them the highest utility. Consumers in Group C are such that r2 −r1 q2 −q1 <θ ≤ r3 −r2 q3 −q2 and buy product 2 although each product −r2 gives them a positive utility. Finally, consumers in group D are such that qr33 −q < θ ≤ θ and purchase 2 r1 r3 −r2 r2 −r1 1 − F , F − F product 3. Hence, the purchase probabilities are equal to F rq22 −r −q1 q1 q3 −q2 q2 −q1 r3 −r2 and 1 − F q3 −q2 respectively for product 1, 2 and 3. The expected profit is as follows: EΠ(S) = X Pj (S)(rj − cj )µ − K|S|, j∈S 7 (4) Utility Do not purchase Purchase Product 1 Purchase Product 2 Purchase Product 3 A B C D θ r3 − r2 q3 − q 2 r2 − r1 q2 − q1 r1 q1 θ θ Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Figure 1: Purchase probabilities in an example with 3 products. where µ is the expected market size and |S| denotes the size of set S. In what follows, we assume, without loss of generality, that µ is equal to 1 and that the fixed cost K is scaled appropriately. The firm’s objective is to find S ∗ such that EΠ∗ = EΠ(S ∗ ) = max S⊆{1,...,n} EΠ(S). (5) 3.2 Results To solve the retailer’s profit maximization problem (5), we can enumerate all possible assortments S, compute their expected profit, and identify the optimal assortment with the highest expected profit. However, the complexity of this naive enumeration method is O(2n ), which is not practical when n is large as we show in Section 6. Consequently, we develop an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal assortment. This algorithm is based on some important properties of the optimal assortment which we present first. Let S ∗ = {j1 , j2 , ..., jm } be the optimal set such that j1 < j2 < ... < jm . Lemma 1. The products in an optimal assortment S ∗ satisfy the following three conditions: rj1 < rj2 < ... < rjm , rj rj rj θ ≤ 1 < 2 < ... < m < θ̄, qj1 qj2 qjm rj1 − cj1 ≤ rj2 − cj2 ≤ ... ≤ rjm − cjm . 8 (6) (7) (8) Lemma 1 indicates that, in the optimal assortment, the product prices and price-quality ratios are strictly increasing in the quality level and the profit margins are non-decreasing in the quality levels. The first two conditions are necessary for all products in S ∗ to get a positive purchase probability. The intuition behind the third property is that the retailer can get a higher expected profit by removing product j if a product j has a lower profit margin than products of lower quality. From (2), (3) and (4), notice that the contribution of product ji to the expected profit in assortment S depends only on the adjacent products ji−1 and ji+1 , since products before ji−1 and after ji+1 have no impact on the purchase probability of product ji . As a consequence, we are able to model this problem as a shortest path problem and solve it in polynomial time. Moreover, we use the properties of Lemma 1 to construct a parsimonious network. We construct a graph G = (V, A), where V is the set of nodes and A is the arc set of G. Node set V consists of pairs of products (i, j) such that product j has a higher quality and price-quality ratio than product i and a profit margin which is no lower than that of product i. A node (i, j) ∈ V indicates that products i and j could be offered together in the assortment. We also introduce two fictitious nodes: a source node (0, 0) and a destination node (n + 1, n + 1). If nodes (i, j) and (j, k) satisfy θ ≤ rj −ri qj −qi < rk −rj qk −qj < θ̄, then the arc between these two nodes is a valid arc, which belongs to A. A valid arc between (i, j) and (j, k) implies that product j could be offered along with products i and k. We are able to compute the cost of the arc between (i, j) and (j, k) using the prices, variable costs, and quality levels of these three products. We find the optimal assortment by solving the shortest path problem from the source node to the destination node. We formalize the procedure as follows. ALGORITHM: Shortest Path ‘Exo’ • Step 1. Construct the node set V , which consists of the following nodes: V rj ri < θ̄ ∪ {(j, n + 1) : 1 ≤ j ≤ n and < θ̄} ∪ = (0, i) : 1 ≤ i ≤ n and θ ≤ qi qj rj ri < < θ̄ and ri − ci ≤ rj − cj {(0, 0), (n + 1, n + 1)} ∪ (i, j) : 1 ≤ i < j ≤ n and qi qj • Step 2. Construct the arc set by adding an arc from node (i, j) ∈ V to (l, k) ∈ V to set A if j = l = k or j = l < k and θ ≤ rj −ri qj −qi r −r rk −rl qk −ql < θ̄ if k < n + 1 and θ ≤ qjj −qii < θ̄ if k = n + 1. h i rk −rj rj −ri K − (r − c ) F − F j j qj −qi i hqk −qj r −r • Step 3. Compute the arc costs: C(i,j),(j,k) = K − (rj − cj ) 1 − F qjj −qii 0 < • Step 4. Solve the shortest path problem from (0, 0) to (n + 1, n + 1). 9 if 0 < j < k < n + 1 if 0 < j < k = n + 1 otherwise Theorem 1. The Shortest Path ‘Exo’ algorithm gives an optimal assortment. Corollary 1. The complexity of the Shortest Path ‘Exo’ algorithm is O(n3 ). Note that it is necessary to define the nodes as pairs of products as one needs to know which product is to the left and which product is to the right of a given product in order to compute its contribution to the expected profit. Also, note that our result does not make any assumption on the distribution of customer valuation F . In the context of a firm determining the optimal tradeoff between variety and leadtime for horizontally differentiated products, Alptekinoglu and Corbett (n.d.) also use a shortest path formulation to solve for the optimal product line. The efficiency of the Shortest Path ‘Exo’ algorithm makes our method to identify the optimal assortment attractive. We use an example in next section to illustrate how to use the algorithm. 3.3 Example and Properties of the Optimal Solution The shortest path ‘Exo’ algorithm is most useful when the retailer faces a large number of candidate products, but the small example below illustrates the underlying mechanism and provides valuable insights. Example 1. A retailer can choose from three vertically differentiated products with ~c = (5, 4.5, 50), ~q = (30, 36, 100) and ~r = (15, 15.5, 80). She knows that the distribution of customer valuations follows distribution F (θ) = 1 − (1 − θ)b , where b > 0 with support [0, 1]. She needs to decide what products to offer in order to maximize the profit. The distribution of customer valuations F (θ) = 1 − (1 − θ)b is a common distribution to model consumer preferences; see, for example, Debo et al. (2005) and Sundararajan (2004). It corresponds to a beta distribution2 with parameter a = 1 and b > 0. Note that the uniform distribution on [0, 1] is a special case of this distribution obtained by setting b = 1. If b > 1, then the distribution function is concave, meaning that there are more customers with low valuations. If 0 < b < 1, then the distribution function is convex, meaning that there are more customers with high valuations. Using the enumeration method, one would need to consider seven assortments: {1}, {2}, {3}, {1, 2}, {1, 3}, {2, 3}, and {1, 2, 3} and compute the expected profit for each one. Figure 2 shows the graph. (0,0) and (4,4) are the source and destination nodes respectively. Table 2 shows the correspondence 2 The probability density function is B(θ; a, b) = θ a−1 (1−θ)b−1 , β(a,b) 10 where β(a, b) = R1 0 xa−1 (1 − x)b−1 dx. between the valid path and assortment. The network contains four valid paths which correspond to the following assortments: {1}, {2}, {3}, and {1, 3}. Therefore, compared to the enumeration method, we are able to exclude three assortments. In Figure 2, the arc costs are computed using K = 0 and b = 1. In this case, applying the Shortest Path ‘Exo’ algorithm gives the optimal path (0, 0) → (0, 1) → (1, 3) → (3, 4) → (4, 4), which corresponds to the assortment {1, 3}, and gives an optimal expected profit of $6.43. -2.14 (0,1) 0 (0,0) 0 (1,3) -5 (2,3) (0,2) -6.26 (1,4) 0 -4.29 (2,4) 0 0 (4,4) 0 (0,3) -6 (3,4) Figure 2: Graph for Example 1 with K = 0 and b = 1. Valid path (0, 0) → (0, 1) (0, 0) → (0, 1) (0, 0) → (0, 2) (0, 0) → (0, 3) → (1, 3) → (3, 4) → (4, 4) → (1, 4) → (4, 4) → (2, 4) → (4, 4) → (3, 4) → (4, 4) Assortment {1, 3} {1} {2} {3} Table 2: Mapping between path and assortment for Example 1. We now compare the optimal assortments for different values of the fixed cost, i.e., K = 0, 0.1, or 0.5, and different distributions of customer valuations, i.e., b = 1/2, 1 or 2. Table 3 shows the optimal assortment S ∗ for each possible combination of K and b. We see that the optimal assortment varies with the customer valuation distribution F since it varies with b (we will show that this result is not true when K = 0 in the endogenous prices case). In particular, consider the three cases when K = 0: with b = 1/2, many customers have a high valuation of quality and it is optimal to offer only product 3, which is the most profitable product. When b = 1, the distribution of quality valuation is uniform and it is optimal to add product 1 to the assortment in order to increase total demand, even though it also leads to some customers switching from product 3 to the less profitable product 1. Finally when b = 2 and most customers have low valuations of quality and it is most important to capture the greatest possible market, so the optimal assortment is to offer only product 2, which has the lowest price-to-quality ratio. Moreover, when b = 1, we see that, as the fixed cost changes from K = 0.1 to K = 0.5, the optimal assortment changes from {1, 3} to {2}. Therefore, retailers need to be aware of any change in the fixed cost as it can have a great impact on the optimal assortment. As expected, the expected profit decreases with b since a decrease in b implies that more customers have high valuation for quality. 11 K=0 K = 0.1 K = 0.5 b = 1/2 S ∗ = {3} EΠ∗ = 13.41 S ∗ = {3} EΠ∗ = 13.32 S ∗ = {3} EΠ∗ = 12.91 b=1 S ∗ = {1, 3} EΠ∗ = 6.43 S ∗ = {1, 3} EΠ∗ = 6.23 S ∗ = {2} EΠ∗ = 5.74 b=2 S ∗ = {2} EΠ∗ = 3.57 S ∗ = {2} EΠ∗ = 3.47 S ∗ = {2} EΠ∗ = 3.07 Table 3: Optimal assortments and optimal expected profit values as a function of K and b in Example 1. Another interesting observation is with regard to the relative attractiveness of the products in the optimal assortment. We say that product i dominates product j if ci < cj , qi > qj , ri > rj , and ri qi < rj qj and that a product is dominated if there exists at least one product in {1, ..., n} that dominates it. Note that ri qi < rj qj implies that product i would claim a higher market share than dominated product j if it was offered exclusively. In Example 1, product 1 is dominated by product 2 and yet product 1 is included in the optimal solution when b = 1 and K = 0 or 0.1. The intuition is as follows: product 1 is offered alongside product 3 which is the most lucrative product (i.e., the one with the highest profit margin) because it brings in extra demand without cannibalizing the sales of product 3 too much. While offering product 2 instead of product 1 would bring in more demand and a higher profit margin on these customers, it would cannibalize the sales of product 3 too much and result in less profit overall. Hence, a dominated product is never included in an assortment alongside the product which dominates it, but it can be included instead of it, when doing so reduces the cannibalization of a more profitable product. This example also suggests that one cannot eliminate dominated products as they might be included in the optimal assortment (in the next section we show that this property does not hold when prices are decision variables) and this is true whether K = 0 or K > 0. 4 The Endogenous Prices Case This section presents the model when prices are endogenous. We discuss the optimal solution structure and develop several efficient algorithms to identify the optimal assortment. The choice of which algorithm to use depends on the value of the fixed cost and the nature of the distribution of customer valuations. 12 4.1 Model In the endogenous prices model, only ~ q and ~c are given and fixed. The retailer needs to determine the assortment S and the selling price rj for product j ∈ S. Note that it is possible to set the selling price of a product so high that no customer buys it, that is, such that the product has a zero purchase probability. In this case, the product should not be included in the assortment so as to save on the fixed cost. Therefore we regard ~r as the only decision variable in this problem and define the corresponding assortment as the set of the products with positive purchasing probability given ~r. As in the exogenous model, each customer observes ~r and ~ q then chooses the product that gives him the highest utility as long as it is positive. Let h(θ) = f (θ) 1−F (θ) be the failure (or hazard) rate of distribution F , and η(θ) = 1 h(θ) be the inverse failure (or hazard) rate. F is an increasing failure rate (IFR) distribution if h′ (θ) ≥ 0 or equivalently η ′ (θ) ≤ 0 for all θ. In this section, we assume that F is an IFR distribution. This assumption is satisfied by most common distributions, e.g., uniform, normal, logistic, chi-squared, exponential, Laplace, and beta distributions with a = 1. Note that this assumption is not required in the exogenous prices case. Let θj = rj −rj−1 qj −qj−1 for j = 1, ..., n. A customer with valuation θj gets the same utility from products j − 1 and j. Without loss of generality, we assume that the prices are set such that θ ≤ θ1 ≤ ... ≤ θn ≤ θ̄. (9) because for any set of prices that does not satisfy this condition, there exists a set of prices that does, with the same purchase probability for each product and the same total expected profit. Let Pj (~r) be the purchase probability for product j. We have Pj (~r) = F (θj+1 ) − F (θj ) and Pn (~r) = 1 − F (θn ). Let S(~r) denote the assortment, that is, the set of products with Pj (~r) > 0 given price vector ~r. Given (θ1 , ..., θn ) satisfying (9), we have S(~r) = {j = 1, ..., n : θ ≤ θj < θj+1 < θ̄}. We write the P expected profit as EΠ(~r) = nj=1 Pj (~r)(rj − cj ) − K|S(~r)|. The firm’s objective is to find ~r∗ such that EΠ∗ = EΠ(~r∗ ) = max~r EΠ(~r). We use S ∗ = S(~r∗ ) to denote the optimal assortment. Note that there is a one-to-one correspondence between ~r and ~θ = (θ1 , ..., θn ). Let θ~ be the vector corresponding to ~r, and S(~ θ) be the assortment corresponding to ~θ. Hence, we can rewrite the expected P profit function as a function of ~ θ only as EΠ(~θ) = nj=1 [1−F (θj )] [θj (qj − qj−1 ) − (cj − cj−1 )]−K|S(~ θ)|. 13 The retailer’s profit maximization problem is maxθ~ EΠ(~θ) (10) s.t. θ ≤ θ1 ≤ θ2 ≤ ... ≤ θn ≤ θ̄ 4.2 Results In Section 3.2, we observe that, when prices are exogenous, the products in the optimal assortment have some nice properties regarding prices and price-quality ratios. Those properties enable us to develop an efficient algorithm to identify the optimal set of products to offer. Similarly, when prices are decision variables, we obtain the properties of the optimal assortment then use them to develop efficient solution methods. Let S ∗ = {j1 , ..., jm }, such that j1 < j2 < ... < jm be an optimal assortment of products with positive purchase probability. Lemma 2. The products in an optimal assortment S ∗ satisfy the following three conditions: cj − cjm−1 cj1 cj − cj1 < 2 < ... < m < θ̄, qj1 qj2 − qj1 qjm − qjm−1 cj cj cj1 < 2 < ... < m < θ̄, qj1 qj2 qjm cj1 < cj2 < ... < cjm . (11) (12) (13) Lemma 2 shows that both the variable costs and cost-quality ratios of products in the optimal assortment are strictly increasing in the quality levels. These conditions allow the retailer to price the products so that she can extract maximum surplus from consumers. Lemma 3 provides a method to compute the optimal prices r ∗ , once S ∗ is known. Lemma 3. The values of θj∗i for i = 1, ..., m are obtained by solving: θj∗i = η(θj∗i ) + cji − cji−1 qji − qji−1 for i = 1, ..., m. (14) ∗ if k < jm and θk∗ = θ̄ if k > jm . The optimal prices are where j0 = 0. For k ∈ / S ∗ , we have θk∗ = θk+1 obtained as follows: rj∗i = i X θj∗x (qjx − qjx−1 ), for i = 1, ..., m. x=1 14 (15) Note that products which are not in S ∗ are not offered and therefore Lemma 3 does not provide a selling price for them. Using these optimal prices, we establish some properties of the optimal assortment. Corollary 2. The products in an optimal assortment S ∗ satisfy the following two conditions: rj∗1 < rj∗2 < ... < rj∗m , (16) rj∗1 − cj1 < rj∗2 − cj2 < ... < rj∗m − cjm . (17) Corollary 2 reveals that, in an optimal assortment, both product prices and profit margins are strictly increasing in the quality levels. Intuitively, if the profit margin of a product is less than another product with lower quality, the retailer can improve the profit by either changing the product price or removing the product. In the exogenous prices case, we notice that the optimal assortment may include dominated products and therefore these products cannot be deleted before using the Shortest Path ‘Exo’ algorithm. We now examine if the same result holds when prices are endogenous. Because prices are no longer fixed, we have to modify the definition of dominated products slightly and say that product i dominates product j if ci < cj , qi > qj , and a product is dominated if there exists at least one product that dominates it. The following result shows that dominated products are never included in the optimal assortment. Lemma 4. An optimal assortment S ∗ does not contain any dominated product. This result is particularly useful if the number of products n is very large, since one can eliminate dominated products before using the algorithm below. Identifying dominated products can be done in O(n2 ). In a different context, Deneckere and McAfee (1996) show that, under some conditions, it is profitable to introduce a product with a lower quality and higher variable cost than an existing product. However, they note in Lemma 3 on page 168, that this result does not hold when the ratio of how a customer values the product with low quality to how he values the product with high quality is nondecreasing in θ. In our model, that ratio is equal to θql θqh = ql qh where ql and qh are the value of low quality and high quality respectively, which is nondecreasing in θ. Therefore, their result does not apply to our setting. Using the properties from Lemma 2, we develop a method to find the optimal solution in polynomial time by modeling the problem of finding S ∗ as a shortest path problem. 15 ALGORITHM: Shortest Path ‘Endo’ • Step 1. Construct node set V , which consists of the following nodes: V = cj ci (0, i) : 1 ≤ i ≤ n and θ ≤ < θ̄ ∪ {(j, n + 1) : 1 ≤ j ≤ n and < θ̄} qi qj ci cj ∪ {(0, 0), (n + 1, n + 1)} ∪ (i, j) : 1 ≤ i < j ≤ n and < < θ̄ , qi qj • Step 2. Construct arc set by adding an arc from node (i, j) ∈ V to (l, k) ∈ V to set A if j = l = k or cj −ci qj −qi c −c ck −cl qk −ql < θ̄ if k < n + 1 and qjj −qii < θ̄ if k = n + 1 and l < k. K − [θ (q − q ) − (c − c )] [1 − F (θ )] k k j k j k • Step 3. Compute the arc costs: C(i,j),(j,k) = 0 j = l < k and < where θk is the solution to θk = η(θk ) + ck −cj qk −qj if k < n + 1 if k = n + 1 . • Step 4. Solve the shortest path problem from (0, 0) to (n + 1, n + 1). Theorem 2. Shortest Path ‘Endo’ Algorithm gives an optimal assortment. Corollary 3. The complexity of the Shortest Path ‘Endo’ algorithm is O(n3 ). Once S ∗ is obtained by solving Shortest Path ‘Endo’ Algorithm, we can use Lemma 3 to obtain the optimal prices. Note that the Shortest Path ‘Endo’ Algorithm has the same complexity as the Shortest Path ‘Exo’ Algorithm of Section 3. However, in practice, the number of nodes and arcs is generally greater in the endogenous case since there are fewer conditions on the node set, and, as a result, solving the Shortest Path ‘Endo’ Algorithm generally takes longer than solving the Shortest Path ‘Exo’ Algorithm. 4.3 Example and Properties of the Optimal Solution To illustrate how the Shortest Path ‘Endo’ Algorithm works, we show how to obtain the optimal assortment using the same data as in Example 1. Example 2. (Cont’d from Example 1) Let ~c, ~q and the customer valuation distribution F be as in Example 1. The retailer needs to decide what products to offer and how to price the offered products. In this case, the network, shown in Figure 3, contains ten nodes and five valid paths. Table 4 maps the valid paths to assortments {1}, {2}, {3}, {1, 3},and {2, 3}, so that there is one more valid path than in the exogenous case. Compared to the enumeration method, we are able to exclude two assortments. 16 (1,3) -2.32 0 (0,1) 0 -5.21 -1.34 (0,0) -6.89 (1,4) 0 (2,3) (0,2) 0 (0,3) 0 0 (2,4) 0 (4,4) -6.25 0 (3,4) Figure 3: Graph for Example 2 with K = 0 and b = 1. Valid path (0, 0) → (0, 1) (0, 0) → (0, 2) (0, 0) → (0, 1) (0, 0) → (0, 2) (0, 0) → (0, 3) → (1, 3) → (3, 4) → (4, 4) → (2, 3) → (3, 4) → (4, 4) → (1, 4) → (4, 4) → (2, 4) → (4, 4) → (3, 4) → (4, 4) Assortment {1, 3} {2, 3} {1} {2} {3} Table 4: Mapping between paths and assortments in Example 2. In Figure 3, the arc costs are computed using K = 0 and b = 1. In this case, applying the Shortest Path ‘Endo’ algorithm gives the optimal path (0, 0) → (0, 2) → (2, 3) → (3, 4) → (4, 4) which corresponds to the assortment {2, 3} and gives an optimal expected profit of $8.23. As in exogenous prices case, we now compare the optimal assortments for different values of the fixed cost, i.e., K = 0 or 0.5 and different distributions of customer valuations, i.e., b = 1/2, 1 or 2. Table 5 shows the optimal assortment S ∗ for each possible combination of K and b. K=0 K = 0.5 b = 1/2 S ∗ = {2, 3} r2∗ = 20.25, r3∗ = 75 EΠ∗ = 13.93 S ∗ = {2, 3} r2∗ = 20.25, r3∗ = 75 EΠ∗ = 12.93 b=1 S ∗ = {2, 3} r2∗ = 20.25, r3∗ = 75 EΠ∗ = 8.23 S ∗ = {2, 3} r2∗ = 20.25, r3∗ = 75 EΠ∗ = 7.23 b=2 S ∗ = {2, 3} r2∗ = 20.25, r3∗ = 75 EΠ∗ = 3.21 S ∗ = {2} r2∗ = 20.25 EΠ∗ = 2.51 Table 5: Optimal assortments, price vectors, and expected profit values as a function of K and b in Example 2. As expected, we see that expected profit is decreasing in K and b. Notice that the optimal assortment varies with b when K > 0, but not when K = 0. Lemma 5 in Section 4.4 shows that this result for K = 0 is true in general. 4.4 Special Cases Advances in information technology has made it possible for some online retailers to sell the their products with a negligible fixed cost. Moreover, the distribution of customer valuations F (θ) = 1 − (1 − θ)b , which is a common distribution to model consumer preferences, has a linear inverse hazard 17 rate function. In this section, we explore more results for the following special cases of zero fixed cost and/or linear inverse hazard rate function. 4.4.1 Special case 1: Zero Fixed Cost When K = 0 we are able to obtain stronger conditions on the cost and quality levels of the products included in the optimal assortment. Lemma 5. If K = 0, S ∗ is optimal if and only if the conditions from Lemma 2 are satisfied along with, cj − ck ck − cji , ≥ i+1 qk − qji qji+1 − qk ck − cjm ≥ θ̄, qk − qjm for i = 1, ..., m − 1 and k = ji + 1, ..., ji+1 − 1, (18) for k = jm + 1, ..., n. (19) Further, the optimal assortment S ∗ is unique. Lemma 5 implies that the products which are not included in S ∗ have a higher cost-quality ratio than products in S ∗ with a lower quality level. While more than one assortment may satisfy the conditions of Lemma 2 (in particular, if an assortment does, so do all of its subsets), only one assortment satisfies these conditions along with (18) and (19) (remember that S ∗ is defined as the optimal set of products with strictly positive purchase probability). Also, the optimal assortment remains the same whatever the distribution of customers’ valuation is (as long as it is IFR) as stated in Corollary 4. Corollary 4. If K = 0, S ∗ does not depend on the distribution of customer valuation F . This is a surprising result since the non-zero arc costs depend on F in the Shortest path ‘Endo’ algorithm, Therefore, one would expect the shortest path and the corresponding assortment to vary with F as in the exogenous prices case. We provide an intuition for this result in next section. For the case when K = 0, we use the properties in Lemma 5 to develop a more efficient algorithm. For each product i, starting with a fictitious product 0, we identify the next product to be included in the optimal assortment by looking for a product which satisfies conditions (11) and (18). We examine candidate products one by one, starting from the highest quality product (i.e., product n) down to product i + 1. After identifying the optimal set S ∗ , we compute the optimal prices using Lemma 3. 18 Note that the algorithm assumes that dominated products have been deleted from the list of possible products to offer. The algorithm is formally stated as follows. ALGORITHM: Zero Fixed Cost Algorithm • Step 0. S ∗ = ∅, i = 0. • Step 1. If i < n, { For j := n down to i + 1, { If cj −ci qj −qi < θ̄ AND ck −ci qk −qi > cj −ck qj −qk for k = i + 1, ..., j − 1 { S ∗ := S ∗ ∪ {j}, i := j and back to step 1. } } } • Step 2: Use Lemma 3 to obtain ~r∗ . Proposition 1. The set S ∗ obtained from Zero Fixed Cost Algorithm is optimal when K = 0. Corollary 5. The complexity of the Zero Fixed Cost Algorithm is O(n2 ). In practice the Zero Fixed Cost algorithm can be used whenever the advertising costs and other fixed cost are negligible, which is more likely to be true for online retailers. Barghava and Choudhary (2001) previously studied this setting. They provide conditions under which the optimal assortment contains all n products, i.e., S ∗ = {1, ..., n} and conditions under which it contains only the product with the highest quality, i.e., S ∗ = {n}. In contrast, our work provides an efficient algorithm to identify the optimal solution for any (~c, ~ q ). Further, we show in Section 6 that our Zero Fixed Cost Algorithm is very fast. There is a nice graphical interpretation for the optimal solution when K = 0: on a two dimensional graph the functions θqj − cj for j = 1, ..., n are drawn as a function of θ, the optimal assortment corresponds to the set of products that belong to the upper envelope of the lines in the positive quadrant for θ ∈ [θ, θ]. Figure 4 shows the corresponding graph for Example 2 with K = 0 and b = 1. From the graph, we can see the optimal assortment is {2, 3} since these two products belong to the upper envelope. We formalize this observation in the following Corollary. Corollary 6. When K = 0, j ∈ S ∗ if and only if there exist at least two values of θ ∈ [θ, θ] such that θqj − cj = maxi=1,...,n(θqi − ci ). 19 θq −c Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 0 1 θ Figure 4: Graphical interpretation for S ∗ in Example 2 with K = 0 and b = 1. 4.4.2 Special case 2: Linear Inverse Rate Function From Example 2 above, we observe that the prices of products 2 and 3 are the same whether K = 0 or K = 0.5, provided they are being offered in the optimal assortment. Next we formally prove that this property holds whenever the inverse hazard rate function η(θ) is linear in θ. Examples of distributions having linear inverse hazard rate include exponential distributions and F = 1 − (1 − θ)b with b > 0. As mentioned earlier, the distribution of F = 1 − (1 − θ)b is a common distribution to model consumer preference and the uniform distribution is a special case of this distribution. Lemma 6. Suppose η(θ) = αθ + β, where α ≤ 0 and β are constants. The optimal price of any product in S ∗ = {j1 , ..., jm } with j1 < ... < jm depends only on its own cost and quality, i.e., rj∗i = cji + βqji 1−α for i = 1, ..., m. (20) We use this result to develop a faster algorithm for the case of linear η(θ). Proposition 2. Suppose η(θ) = αθ + β, where α ≤ 0 and β are constants. Solving (10) is equivalent to solving (5) with selling prices rj = cj +βqj 1−α for j = 1, ..., n. By Proposition 2, the problem with endogenous prices can be solved using the algorithm for the exogenous prices case when the inverse hazard rate function is linear. This result is useful because our solution method for the exogenous case is generally faster than that for the endogenous case (despite the fact that they have the same theoretical complexity). This is because the set of nodes in Shortest Path ‘Exo’ is generally smaller than the set of nodes in Shortest Path ‘Endo’. 20 4.4.3 Special case 3: Zero Fixed Cost and Linear Inverse Rate Function In the special case where K = 0 and η(θ) is linear, the following proposition provides an another method to obtain the optimal solution. Proposition 3. When K = 0 and η(θ) = αθ + β, where α ≤ 0 and β are constants, j ∈ S ∗ if and only if there exist at least two values of θ ∈ [θ, θ] such that θqj − rj = maxi=1,...,n(θqi − ri ) where ri = ci +βqi 1−α for i = 1, ..., n. Proposition 3 shows when K = 0 and η(θ) is linear, the optimal assortment can also be obtained graphically by looking for the upper envelope of the utility curves drawn in the positive quadrant for θ ∈ [θ, θ] for each product using prices rj = cj +βqj 1−α for j = 1, ..., n as shown in the following example. Note that this method has the same complexity as the Zero Fixed Cost Algorithm. The following example illustrates how it works. Example 3. (Cont’d from Examples 1 and 2) Let ~c, ~q and the customer valuation distribution F (θ) be as in Examples 1 and 2. We have η(θ) = 1−θ b so the inverse hazard rate is linear in θ (with α = − 1b and β = 1b ). When b = 1, we obtain $17.5, $20.25 and $75 respectively for the prices of products 1, 2 and 3. In Figure 5, each line corresponds to the utility that customers get from each product when they are offered at these prices. The upper envelope of the three lines in the positive quadrant only intersects the lines from products 2 and 3, therefore {2, 3} is the optimal assortment. Utility Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 0 1 θ Figure 5: Upper envelope graph for Example 3. In summary, we have developed a number of efficient algorithms to identify the optimal assortment when prices are endogenous. Table 6 provides a summary of our solution methods as a function of K and η(θ). Note that all the solution methods can be prefaced by the elimination of dominated products from the set of products to consider since an optimal assortment does not contain any dominated product. 21 K>0 K=0 Non-linear inverse rate function η(θ) Shortest Path ‘Endo’ O(n3 ) Zero Fixed Cost Algorithm O(n2 ) Linear inverse rate function η(θ) use Shortest Path ‘Exo’ with (20) O(n3 ) Upper envelope with (20) O(n2 ) Table 6: Solution methods to identify the optimal assortment. 5 Discussion 5.1 Insights In Sections 3 and 4 we show how to obtain the optimal solution efficiently for the exogenous and endogenous prices settings. In this section, we discuss some interesting properties of these solutions and compare these two cases. We have shown that the optimal assortment in the exogenous prices case may contain dominated products while the optimal assortment in the endogenous prices case does not. This is because the retailer who sets prices is able to increase the expected profit by pricing dominated products high enough so that no customer buys them. Including a product with zero purchase probability in the assortment does not increase the profit, therefore, the optimal assortment does not contain dominated products. In contrast, the retailer who does not set prices may want to include dominated products because the prices she is working with are generally sub-optimal (in the sense that they are different from the prices that she would choose if she could) and it may be wise to offer a dominated product instead of the product that dominates it when the dominating product would cannibalize the sales of a more profitable product too much. Note that such sub-optimal prices may not arise if the manufacturers are strategic in setting their MRSP and sell their products only to that one retailer. Another interesting observation is about how the distribution of customer valuations affects the optimal assortment. When the fixed cost is negligible (i.e., K = 0) and prices are endogenous, the optimal assortment does not vary with the distribution of customer valuations (as long as it is IFR). On the contrary, the optimal assortment may vary with the distribution of customer valuations in the exogenous prices case. The underlying reason is as follows. When prices are decision variables, Lemma 5 gives a unique optimal assortment. The optimal selling prices of these products vary with the distribution of customer valuations and as a result, so do their purchasing probabilities and profit margins. This is done in such a way that maximizes the total expected profit. In contrast, in the exogenous case, only the purchasing probabilities change when the distribution of customer valuations changes. Since the prices are often suboptimal, the retailer needs to modify the assortment in order 22 to maximize the total expected profit. Note that, in the endogenous prices case, the retailer who only has incomplete information about the distribution of customer valuations can still identify the optimal assortment as long as the distribution is known to be an IFR distribution. However, setting optimal prices requires knowledge of the distribution. We use Example 4 below to further analyze how the optimal assortments in the two cases differ. Example 4. A retailer can choose from two vertically differentiated products with ~c = (1, 0.5) and ~q = (20, 40). The distribution is F (θ) = 1 − (1 − θ)b with support [0, 1], b = 6 and K = 0. When the prices are fixed with ~r = (2, 19), it is optimal to offer both products. However when the retailer is free to set prices, it is optimal to offer only product 2 at a price of $6.56. This example shows that the optimal assortment in the exogenous prices case can contain two products i and j such that ci > cj and qi < qj , that is, one product has a higher quality and a lower price than another product. By Lemma 2, this is not true in the endogenous price case. From the comparison of the optimal assortments in Examples 1 and 2, along with Example 4, we find that the optimal assortment in the exogenous prices case can be larger or smaller than the optimal assortment in the endogenous prices case and that one is not necessarily a subset of the other. In particular, a product which is included in the optimal assortment when prices are fixed may be dropped when the retailer is able to set her own prices. It is therefore necessary for a retailer who acquires the freedom of setting selling prices to re-evaluate her whole assortment and re-optimize using the appropriate algorithm. Example 5 illustrates some interesting properties of the optimal assortment as the set of candidate products to choose from shrinks. Example 5. A retailer can choose from three vertically differentiated products with ~c = (2, 6, 10) and ~q = (10, 14, 20). The distribution of customer valuations is uniform over [0, 1] and K = 0. The optimal assortment when prices are endogenous is S ∗ = {1, 3} and optimal prices are r1∗ = 6 and r3∗ = 15. Now suppose that product 1 is no longer available, that is, the retailer can only offer a subset of {2, 3}. In that case, the optimal assortment is {2, 3} and the optimal prices are r2∗ = 10 and r3∗ = 15. From this example, we find that, if a product from the optimal assortment becomes unavailable, for example, because the manufacturer discontinues its production, then it may be optimal for the retailer to include new products in the assortment. This result provides a possible explanation for why some 23 manufacturers would continue to offer products which are not included in the optimal assortment when the retailers can choose from the full list of potential products (another possible explanation is that the manufacturer also sells his products to other retailers operating in different markets and for whom the optimal assortment is different because their cost structure is different). Note that this property is also true in the exogenous prices case. To see this, consider the counterpart of example 5 where prices are exogenous and the price vector ~r = (6, 10, 15) and notice that the optimal assortments are the same. Further, Proposition 4 shows that, when prices are endogenous and K = 0, it is never optimal to drop a product from the optimal assortment which has not been discontinued. ∗ be the optimal assortment when the set of potential products to Proposition 4. Suppose K = 0. Let SN ∗ denote the optimal assortment when the set of potential products to choose choose from is N . Let SN ′ ∗ ∩ N ′) ⊆ S ∗ . from is N ′ ⊆ N . We have (SN N′ 5.2 Robustness of the results In this section, we discuss the robustness of our results to some of our modeling assumptions, namely, our choice of utility and fixed cost functions. First we examine our assumption regarding the utility function. We assume that a customer with valuation θ gets a linear utility θqj −rj from buying one unit of product j. All of our results continue to hold if the utility function has the following generalized form: θφ(qj ) − rj , where φ(·) is increasing and concave, as suggested by Mussa and Rosen (1978). This is because this simply involves a redefinition of the units in which ‘quality’ is measured as noted by them. If the utility function is generalized to the form ξ(θ)qj − rj , where ξ(·) is increasing and concave, our results apply as well. This is because the problem can be solved using a linear utility function θ ′ qj − rj , where θ ′ has distribution F ′ defined as follows: F ′ (θ ′ ) = F (ξ −1 (θ ′ )), for θ ′ ∈ [ξ(θ), ξ(θ)]. For our results from the endogenous prices case to apply, we need to further show that F ′ is IFR when F is IFR. The hazard rate h′ of F ′ is given −1 ′ ) by h′ (θ ′ ) = h(ξ −1 (θ ′ )) dξ dθ(θ where h(ξ −1 (θ ′ )) is non-decreasing in θ ′ since F is IFR and ′ dξ −1 (θ ′ ) dθ ′ is increasing in θ ′ since ξ(·) is increasing and concave. Hence h′ (θ ′ ) is non-decreasing and F ′ is also IFR. Second, we examine our assumption regarding the fixed cost. We assume that the fixed cost is linear, i.e., of the form K|S|. In practice, it is possible that the fixed cost is concave in the number of products in the assortment, i.e., of the form c(|S|) where c′ ≥ 0 and c′′ ≤ 0. In that case, all our results continue to hold except Theorems 1 and 2 as it is no longer possible to solve the problem as a shortest path problem. This is because the contribution of a product to the expected profit now depends on 24 the total number of products in the assortment. Our results also partially extend if we consider the following expected profit function as in Cachon et al. (2005): EΠ(S) = X (rj − cj )Pj (S) − c(Pj (S)), (21) j∈S where c(·) is such that c′ ≥ 0 and c′′ ≤ 0 and can be interpreted as the cost of stocking a product. All of our results in the exogenous prices case continue to hold (see Lemma 7 in the Appendix for a proof) with the following straightforward modification to the arc costs in the shortest path algorithm: C(i,j),(j,k) h i rk −rj rj −ri rk −rj rj −ri c F − F − (r − c ) F − F j j qk −qj qk −qj qj −qi h i qj −qi rj −ri rj −ri = c 1 − F qj −qi − (rj − cj ) 1 − F qj −qi 0 if 0 < j < k < n + 1 if 0 < j < k = n + 1 otherwise However our results in the endogenous prices case do not hold anymore. The solution from the FOCs do not necessarily constitute a local maximum and Lemma 2 can be violated. Moreover, the shortest path algorithm does not apply. Even if the FOCs give the optimal solution, the optimal prices of the products in the assortment depend on the parameters of all the products which are included, not only the adjacent ones. The intuition is that under (21), the retailer has an incentive to price the products to distribute the purchasing probabilities unevenly so as to save on the stocking costs. For example, it is more profitable to offer two products with purchasing probabilities 0.4 and 0.1 rather than two products with purchasing probabilities 0.25 each. The study of the optimal assortment with profit function (21) requires a different methodology and will be the subject of our future research. 6 Performance analysis The purpose of this section is to demonstrate the necessity of developing our solution methods both in terms of speed and performance. First we conduct a numerical study to compute the computational time of the solution methods we have proposed for the exogenous and endogenous prices case and compare them with that of the enumeration method as described below. The results show that the enumeration method becomes quickly impractical as n gets large while our algorithms always give the optimal solutions within a short time. Second, we show that simple heuristics can perform arbitrarily 25 badly, i.e., they can lead to an optimality gap of 100%. In the exogenous prices case, the only decision variable is the set of products to offer. The enumeration method is to list the 2n possible assortments to find the optimal one. To speed up the search we check for each possible assortment if the conditions of Lemma 1 are satisfied and if so, we compute expected profit for that assortment. The optimal assortment is the one that yields the highest expected profit of all the ones which satisfy the conditions of Lemma 1. In the endogenous prices case, we need to determine the assortment and the selling prices. The enumeration method consists in listing the 2n possible assortments and checking if the conditions of Lemma 2 are satisfied. If so, we use Lemma 3 to set the prices and compute expected profit. The optimal assortment is the one that yields the highest expected profit of all the ones which satisfy the conditions of Lemma 2. We conduct a numerical study in order to compare the computational time of the enumeration method with that of the solution methods we have proposed. We implement the enumeration method and our algorithms in Matlab 7.6 on a Dell Precision T5500 Workstation with a 64bit Quad Core Intel Xeon Processor E5530 with 2.4GHz and 6 Gb of RAM. In all problem instances we assume that the distribution of customer valuations has a uniform distribution on [0, 1]. We first vary the number of products n between 4 and 10 and vary the quality, cost and price vectors are as follows. We set q = (20, 20 + β, 20 + 2β) where β ∈ {1, 2, ..., 10}, ci = αqi2 n o 0.002 0.01 for i = 1, ..., n where α ∈ 0.001 , ri = γci for i = 1, ...n where γ ∈ {1.1, ..., 2} and , , ..., qn qn qn K = kc1 where k ∈ {0, 0.1, ..., 0.9}. These values are chosen to guarantee the following conditions are satisfied: (i) ci qi ≤ 1 for i = 1, ..., n in the endogenous prices case, (ii) ri qi ≤ 1 for i = 1, ..., n and ri > ci for i = 1, ..., n in the exogenous prices case. These are necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for the products to be included in the optimal assortment. The results show that the coefficient of variation of computational time is small (< 4%), meaning that the computational time does not vary much from one problem instance to the other. Therefore we only run one problem instance for large values of n. We take β = 1, α = 0.001 qn , K = 0, and γ = 2 for n = 11 to 22. Table 7 reports the computational time (in seconds) of the different methods for this one problem instance. We see that the computational time of the enumeration is totally impractical for n larger than 20, e.g., over 16 days in the exogenous prices case when n = 22, while our optimal algorithms give the optimal solutions in less than one second. 26 n 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Exogenous case Enumeration Shortest path Alg 0.007 0.003 0.017 0.006 0.039 0.009 0.089 0.013 0.205 0.018 0.447 0.027 0.989 0.035 2.204 0.045 4.953 0.056 11.733 0.071 31.102 0.088 99.469 0.108 304.229 0.128 1,093.058 0.153 4,214.674 0.181 16,947.186 0.214 69,902.111 0.246 292,917.660 0.282 1,421,247.700 0.378 Enumeration 0.020 0.051 0.119 0.283 0.655 1.474 3.275 7.216 15.802 34.215 73.679 158.058 336.449 715.170 1,517.688 3,199.214 6,756.454 14,180.477 31,438.924 Endogenous case Shortest path Alg 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.008 0.011 0.015 0.020 0.026 0.033 0.041 0.052 0.069 0.077 0.092 0.108 0.127 0.149 0.173 0.297 Zero FC Alg 0.002 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.011 0.012 0.014 0.015 0.017 0.019 0.022 0.023 0.025 0.244 Table 7: Computational time (in seconds) of enumeration method, shortest path method and zero fixed cost algorithm in exogenous and endogenous prices case. Barghava and Choudhary (2001) studied the conditions under which it is optimal to stock only the product with the highest quality level and the conditions under which it is optimal to offer all n products in the endogenous prices case. These two solutions can be used as heuristics when the optimality conditions described by Barghava and Choudhary (2001) are not satisfied. In the endogenous prices case, we set the prices according to Lemma 3. Note that the heuristic which offers all n products may give a solution in which some of the products get a zero purchase probability, so that these products are effectively not included in the assortment. In the event that the solution given by a heuristic generates negative expected profit, we set the profit equal to zero. We measure the performance of a heuristic using the optimality gap, computed as OGH = EΠ∗ −EΠH , EΠ∗ where ΠH is the profit obtained with the heuristic. The following example shows that the optimality gap for the two heuristics can be as high as 100%. Example 6. Let n = 2, q = (2.10, 5.54), c = (6.15, 9.68) and K = 0.5. It is optimal to offer only product 1 and price it at 4.12 in order to get an expected profit of 0.17. The two heuristics return an expected profit of zero because offering only product 2 or offering both products 1 and 2 yields a negative value of expected profit. In most practical settings, the number of potential products to consider is substantially greater than 20 and simple heuristics may lead to a very large optimality gap; therefore there is a need for fast, optimal solution methods like ours. 27 7 Case Study The goal of this section is to demonstrate the applicability of our model in practice. We present two numerical examples which are calibrated using realistic data. Because of the restrictive assumptions of our model (i.e., one quality dimension, no competition) and the lack of data on all the relevant parameters (in particular the variable and fixed costs), we recognize the limitations of this case study. Nevertheless we believe that this section provides a roadmap on how one might conduct an in-depth study of the assortment decisions with vertically differentiated products. In the two examples we present, we focus on one product line from a single manufacturer, such that the products only differ in one or two vertically differentiated attributes. Exogenous prices example: Apple’s iPad sold at Target or Best Buy We consider the problem of a retailer (such as Target or Best Buy) who carries Apple’s iPad product line (first generation). On September 24, 2010 it was announced that Target would start selling Apple’s iPad at “the same price that Apple sells the device for” except for “special sales promotion” (e.g., purchases with a Target credit card).3 Hence, this is an example of an exogenous prices case. As of November 2010, the iPad comes in six different models and Target and Best Buy are selling all six models. Table 8 shows their respective selling prices: Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 Model wifi 16GB wifi 32GB wifi 64GB wifi+3G 16GB wifi+3G 32GB wifi+3G 64GB Selling price $499 $599 $699 $629 $729 $829 Variable cost $449 $539 $629 $566 $656 $746 Percentage of sales 22.85% 18.17% 12.98% 9.36% 14.16% 22.47% Estimated quality level 74.16 88.44 102.02 92.58 105.94 118.42 Table 8: Selling prices, variable costs and percentage of sales and estimated quality levels for Apple’s iPad product line given α = 10% and b = 3. In order to apply our model to this product category, we need to estimate the following parameters: rj , cj , qj for j = 1, ..., 6, µ, F and K. For the selling prices rj , we take the values given in column 3 (Selling price) of Table 8. In order to calculate the variable cost cj we used the fact that Apple’s gross profit margin on the iPad varies between 42.9% and 55.1%, which gives us an upper bound of 25% on the profit margin of the retailer given that Apple is unlikely to give away more than half of its profit margin.4 Let α denote the retailer’s profit margin (as a percentage of the selling price). We consider α 3 4 “Target to begin selling iPad in October” http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506 3-20017559-17.html?tag=mncol;4n Source: Broadpoint AmTech estimates. 28 in {5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%}. In column 4 (Variable cost) of Table 8, we present the values of variable cost that result from assuming α = 10%. We use µ = 200 million units for the market size, where the term ‘market’ refers to the number of people (in the United States) who would gladly take an iPad if given to them for free.5 This number is an estimate of the American adult population size and was obtained using the total US population size in 2010 (310 million) and the proportion of people between the age of 15 and 65 (67%).6 We use the following distribution of customers valuation for quality F (θ) = 1 − 1 b b (θ − θ) θ on support [0, θ] because of its flexibility, i.e., by varying b, we can easily vary the relative proportion of customers with a low and high valuation for quality. We set θ = 10 and considered values for b ∈ {1, ..., 6} so that the dollar value of one unit of quality is between 0 and 10, and is skewed to the left, meaning that more customers have a lower valuation of quality. We believe that this is reasonable: relatively few customers - the ones who are devoted fans of Apple products have a valuation of quality close to 10, most consumers have a valuation closer to zero. In what follows we present our results for the case of b = 3. Estimating the quality levels qj is a tricky task since the quality of the iPad is not solely a function of the memory size and whether or not it has 3G capabilities. We also need to evaluate the intrinsic quality of the product, which is based on its design, functionalities, etc. Because our model allows for only one dimension for quality, we combine all of these features into a single one measure. Our approach is to look for values of qj , j = 1, ..., 6 such that the purchasing probabilities given by our model match the actual percentages of the population buying each iPad model. Table 8 shows the actual percentage of sales from each model.7 As of November 2010, Apple has sold over 7 million iPads in the United States, this corresponds to about 3.5% of the total American market given our estimate of µ, hence we multiply the percentages from Table 8 by 3.5%. We obtain the values in column 6 (Estimated quality level) of Table 8. First we check that the quality levels make sense: the values we obtained are increasing in the memory size for each model and the 3G version always has a quality level higher than the wifi only version of the same size. Also we believe these quality levels are consistent with the value of the iPad coming mostly from the design, convenience of use and functionality, irrespective of the memory size. Then we use our results from Section 3 to obtain the the optimal assortment given all the parameters mentioned above. When K = 0 we find that the optimal assortment is the one that contains all six 5 This is different from the traditional use of the term ‘market’ as the number of potential buyers given the current price. 6 Source: http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html and www.google.com/publicdata. Retrieved November 17, 2010 7 Source: http://gizmodo.com/5530111/which-ipad-did-you-buy. Retrieved November 17, 2010. 29 models of iPads, hence justifying the assortment chosen by Target and Best Buy. This assortment is optimal for 0 ≤ K ≤ 50, 652, which means that unless the fixed cost of adding a product in the assortment is greater than $50,652, it is optimal to offer all six versions of the iPad. Note that this value was obtained assuming a market size µ of 200 million units, so, more generally the threshold value of K above which it is optimal to stop offering product 4 is given by 0.00025326µ. We believe that in the case of retailers such as Target or Best Buy, it is likely that their fixed cost is minimal, given that most of the advertising is conducted by Apple themselves. The following table shows the optimal assortment as a function of the fixed cost K. K [0; 50, 652] [50, 652; 199, 306] [199, 307; 613, 023] [613, 024; 1, 830, 195] [1, 830, 196; 13, 233, 455] [13, 233, 456; 434, 251, 809] Optimal assortment {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} {1, 2, 3, 5, 6} {1, 2, 5, 6} {2, 5, 6} {2, 6} {6} Table 9: Optimal assortment as a function of K with α = 10% and b = 3. We find that our results are robust to our choice of parameters. In all cases, the values of qj we obtain make sense as described above and the optimal assortment with K = 0 was to offer all 6 versions of the iPad. Endogenous prices example: Lexar Flash Drives sold at three online retailers Next we consider “TwistTurn USB 2.0 JumpDrive” product category by the manufacturer Lexar. Table 10 shows the selling prices from the manufacturer as well as three online retailers who carry the product line.8 Index 1 2 3 4 5 6 Model number LJDTT2GBASBNA LJDTT4GBASBNA LJDTT8GBASBNA LJDTT16GASBNA LJDTT32GASBNA LJDTT64GASBNA Memory size 2GB 4GB 8GB 16GB 32GB 64GB Lexar 13.99 19.99 29.99 49.99 99.99 199.99 Selling NewEgg 12.79 10.99 23.79 24.13 83.99 128.79 prices J&R 9.99 10.99 19.99 29.99 59.99 129.99 Variable cost Amazon 11.10 11.58 19.93 26.83 60.23 118.29 6.30 9.00 13.50 22.50 45.00 90.00 Table 10: Selling prices and variable costs given α = 45%. We study the problem of the three retailers determining their assortment and prices for the product category. Since the retailers have the freedom to charge a different price than the one suggested by 8 The data was collected directly from the firms’ websites (www.lexar.com, www.newegg.com, www.jr.com and www.amazon.com) Retrieved November 17, 2010 30 the manufacturer, this is an example of an endogenous prices case. For the variable costs cj , we assume that the manufacturer charges a percentage α of his own selling price to each retailer. We use α ∈ {40%, 45%, 50%}. With these values, the average gross profit margin of Amazon across model number, calculated as (selling price - variable cost)/variable cost, is equal to 35.30%, 27.20% and 19.12% respectively for α = 40%, 45% and 50%. These numbers are in the same order of magnitude as the company’s gross profit margin, as calculated from their 2010 income statement (24.00%). In the last column (Variable cost) of Table 10, we show the values for cj obtained when assuming α = 45%. As in the iPad example, we use the following distribution of customers valuation for quality F (θ) = 1 − 1 b (θ θ − θ)b on support [0, θ] and considered b ∈ {5, 7, 9, 11} and θ in {6, 8, 10, 12}. We set the quality levels using qj = q0 + memory size of product j in gigabytes, with q0 ∈ {0, 2, 4, 6}. So for example, q0 = 0 implies that q1 = 2, q2 = 4, q3 = 8, q4 = 16, q5 = 32 and q6 = 64. Finally we assume K = 0, which is reasonable given that we are talking about online retailers.9 In total we considered 192 parameters sets. In what follows, we present our results given α = 45%, θ = 6, b = 9 and q0 = 0. We find that the optimal assortment is to offer only the 16GB and 64GB versions, i.e., S ∗ = {4, 6}. With a market size µ normalized to 1, the optimal expected profit is equal to 1.03. Even though each online retailer offers all six versions of the product on their website, their selling prices may be such that some models are not purchased by any customer (this would not hurt their profit since K = 0). We refer to the set of products that get a positive purchasing probability given our model as the ‘effective assortment’ of a retailer (see Table 11, row 2). The selling prices of the products in the effective assortments are the only ones that matter when computing expected profit (see Table 11, row 3). We compute expected profit generated by these effective assortments and selling prices assuming a market size µ equal to 1 (see Table 11, row 4). Finally, for each retailer, we calculate the percentage of the optimal expected profit they achieved (see Table 11, row 5). Interestingly we find that, NewEgg and Amazon effectively offer the optimal assortment, but because Amazon’s pricing is closer to the optimal values, they achieve the highest expected profit. Despite not offering the optimal assortment, J&R achieves a high expected profit value because of their carefully chosen prices. All three retailers are within 73% of the optimal expected profit as calculated by our model. Again, our results are robust to our choice of parameters. In all 192 cases, we found it was optimal to offer products 4 and 6 in the assortment and it was never optimal to offer products 2 and 3. The average percentage of the optimal profit across 9 Estimating the value of K for a brick-and-mortar retailer is tricky as it includes advertising and fixed shelf-space related costs. Moreover the value of K must be evaluated relative to the potential market size, which is one more parameter to estimate. For these reasons we choose to study only the endogenous prices case with K = 0 and consider only the assortment of online retailers for which we believe it is a reasonable assumption. 31 all 192 parameter sets was 76.25%, 86.70% and 82.50% respectively for NewEgg, J&R and Amazon, which seems to indicate that J&R’s pricing is the closest to optimal. Effective assortment Corresponding prices Expected profit % of the optimal Optimal {4, 6} (25.60, 110.39) 1.03 100% NewEgg {4, 6} (24.13, 128.79) 0.76 73.69% J&R {4, 5, 6} (29.99, 59.99, 129.99) 0.94 90.99% Amazon {4, 6} (26.83, 118.29) 1.00 96.72% Table 11: Profit comparison given α = 45%, θ = 6, b = 9 and q0 = 0. Note that our analysis does not take competition into account. In essence, we assume that each retailer faces a population of loyal customers who only consider that retailer’s assortment. Also we ignore the fact that the retailers sell other brands of USB flash drives and even other models from the Lexar brand. Finally we assume that all three retailers face the same population of customers and pay the same variable cost to the manufacturer for the products they purchase. All these assumptions may not be valid in practice, which could explain the difference in assortments and prices chosen by the retailers. We plan to explore how relaxing these assumptions impacts assortment choice in our future research. 8 Conclusion We study the problem of a retailer offering an assortment of vertically differentiated products to customers who differ in their valuation of quality. We first consider the scenario where prices are exogenously determined and the retailer’s only decision is to decide the set of products to offer. We show that the problem of finding the optimal assortment can be modeled as a shortest path problem, which has complexity O(n3 ). Interestingly we show that the optimal assortment may contain dominated products, i.e., products which have a lower quality, lower selling price, and higher cost than one other product. Second, we examine the setting where the retailer can also determine the selling prices of products which are included in the assortment. We show that this problem can also be modeled as a shortest path with complexity O(n3 ). However, in practice, this problem usually takes longer to solve because the network generally contains more nodes and arcs. When the fixed cost associated with each offered product is negligible (i.e., K = 0), we develop a more efficient algorithm, with complexity O(n2 ). If the distribution of customer valuations has a linear inverse hazard rate we show that the optimal prices can be obtained independently of the optimal assortment so that the optimal assortment can be found by using the solution method developed for the exogenous prices case. We show that 32 most of our results are robust to the assumptions we made on the utility and profit functions. Finally, our numerical studies demonstrate the need for our efficient optimal algorithms and the applicability of our model in practice. In summary, we provide efficient methods to obtain the optimal assortment for any quality levels and variable cost, in the presence of fixed cost and also consider the exogenous prices case. Further, we provide a number of interesting insights and guidelines to practitioners regarding their product mix strategy. There are a number of interesting extensions to our work. First, we assume that the products differ with respect to only one attribute which can be regarded a combination of a product’s many characteristics. We are interested in explicitly considering multiple attributes to capture the complexity of consumer choice. Second, we do not consider the case in which the retailer may have constraints when determining the selling prices of products. For example, the retailer does not want to set a price that is higher than a competitor’s selling price. Third, our model assumes that the retailer is a monopolist and that the product quality levels and variable costs are fixed and determined by the manufacturer(s). An interesting extension would be to consider a setting in which the manufacturer chooses the product quality levels and transfer costs in anticipation of the retailer’s assortment choice or a setting in which two or more retailers compete in prices when selling the same manufacturer’s products. Finally, our model does not include the presence of inventory and therefore does not incorporate the impact of stock-outs and the resulting substitution behavior of customers. We plan to explore these extensions in our future research. Appendix A: Proofs Proof of Lemma 1. Notice that (6) and (7) follow directly from (1). We prove (8) by contradiction. Let k be the smallest integer such that rjk − cjk > rjk+1 − cjk+1 . There are two cases: (1) k = m − 1 or rjk − cjk > rji − cji for i = k + 1, ..., m, or (2) otherwise. In case (1), let S = {j1 , ..., jk }. We have: ≥ > EΠ(S) − EΠ(S ∗ ) rjk − rjk−1 (rjk − cjk ) 1−F qjk − qjk−1 "m−1 X rji+1 − rji rji − F −F qji+1 − qji qji i=k rjk − rjk−1 (rjk − cjk ) 1−F qjk − qjk−1 "m−1 X rji rji+1 − rji −F − F qji+1 − qji qji i=k − rji−1 − qji−1 − rji−1 − qji−1 # rjm − rjm−1 (rji − cji ) + 1 − F (rjm − cjm ) , qjm − qjm−1 (rjk 33 # rjm − rjm−1 − cjk ) + 1 − F (rjk − cjk ) = 0. qjm − qjm−1 Hence, S ∗ cannot be optimal. In case (2), let l ∈ {k+2, ..., m} be the smallest integer rjk −cjk ≤ rjl −cjl and let S = {j1 , ..., jk , jl , ..., jm }. ≥ > EΠ(S) − EΠ(S ∗ ) rjk − rjk−1 rjk+1 − rjk rjk − rjk−1 rjl − rjk F −F (rjk − cjk ) − F −F (rjk − cjk ) qjl − qjk qjk − qjk−1 qjk+1 − qjk qjk − qjk−1 l−1 X rji − rji−1 rji+1 − rji −F (rji − cji ), − F qji+1 − qji qji − qji−1 i=k+1 rjk − rjk−1 rjk+1 − rjk rjk − rjk−1 rjl − rjk F −F (rjk − cjk ) − F −F (rjk − cjk ) qjl − qjk qjk − qjk−1 qjk+1 − qjk qjk − qjk−1 rjk+1 − rjk rjl − rjl−1 rjl − rjk rjl − rjk −F (rjk − cjk ) − F −F (rjl − cjl ) = 0 − F qjl − qjk qjk+1 − qjk qjl − qjl−1 qjl − qjk Where the inequality comes from rjk −rjk−1 qjk −qjk−1 < rjl −rjk qjl −qjk < rjl+1 −rjl qjl+1 −qjl and the fact that (rji − cji ) < rjk − cjk < rjl − cjl for i = k + 1, ..., l − 1. Hence S ∗ cannot be optimal and we have a contradiction. Proof of Theorem 1. Let S = {j1 , . . . , jm } with j1 < ... < jm and p(S) be the path that corresponds to S, where p(S) = (0, 0) → (0, j1 ) → (j1 , j2 ) → ... → (jm−1 , jm ) → (jm , n + 1) → (n + 1, n + 1). Let P be the set of paths. Every set S that satisfies the condition of Lemma 1 corresponds to a path in P and vice versa. The cost of path p(S), C(p(S)) is equal to C(0,0),(0,j1 ) + P C(0,j1 ),(j1 ,j2 ) + . . . + C(jm−1 ,jm ),(jm ,n+1) + C(jm ,n+1),(n+1,n+1) , which is equal to mK − m−1 i=1 (rji − r −r i h r −r i h r −r j j j j j j − (rjm − cjm ) 1 − F qjm −qjm−1 , which is equal to −EΠ(S). cji ) F qji+1 −qji − F qji −qji−1 i+1 i i m i−1 m−1 Hence, min C(p(S)) = min [−EΠ(S)] = max EΠ(S). p∈P S S Proof of Corollary 1. The complexity of a shortest path problem in an acyclic network is bounded by the number of arcs (see Ahuja et al. (1993) page 107). The graph has a special structure, because there is possibly an arc between two nodes (i, j) to (l, k) only if j = l. There are at most j nodes that end with product j ∈ {1, ...n} and these are connected to at most n + 1 − j nodes that P start with product j. Therefore the maximum number of arcs is equal to 2n + nj=1 (n + 1 − j)j, where 2n is the maximum number of nodes leaving the source or ending in the destination node. Hence, the maximum number of arcs is O(n3 ). P Proof of Lemma 2. We can write the expected profit function as EΠ(~θ) = m i=1 [1−F (θji )][θji (qji − qji−1 )−(cji −cji−1 )]−mK. Taking the derivative of the expected profit with respect to rji for i = 1, ..., m, i h cji −cji−1 we get ∂EΠ . At the first order conditions (FOC), we have = f (θ ) η(θ ) − θ + ji ji ji ∂rj qj −qj i i i−1 θji = η(θji ) + cji − cji−1 qji − qji−1 34 for i = 1, ..., m. (22) Also, ∂EΠ2 ∂rji ∂rjk F OC = 0 for k ∈ / {i − 1, i} −f (θji ) ′ qji −qji−1 [η (θji ) f (θji ) ′ qji −qji−1 [η (θji ) − 1] > 0 for k = i − 1 − 1] < 0 for k = i . Therefore, the Hessian matrix is negative definite and the solutions to (22) determine the maximum. Since F is an IFR distribution, η(θ) is a decreasing function and therefore, each equation in (22) gives a unique solution. Let θj∗i , for i = 1, ..., m, denote the solutions to (22). By (9) and the definition of S ∗ , the solution must satisfy θj∗1 < θj∗2 < ... < θj∗m < θ̄, therefore we need cj1 qj1 < cj2 −cj1 qj2 −qj1 < ... < cjm −cjm−1 qjm −qjm−1 < θ̄, which proves that (11) is a necessary condition. Finally, (12) and (13) follow directly from (11). Proof of Lemma 3. The proof of Lemma 2 shows that the first order conditions determine the optimal solutions; therefore, the values of θj∗i for i = 1, ..., m can be obtained by solving (14). Moreover, we can get the prices ~r∗ by using θj∗ = ∗ rj∗ −rj−1 qj −qj−1 for j = 1, ..., n. Proof of Corollary 2. Notice that (16) follows directly from (15). To prove (17), notice that P rj∗i − cji = ik=1 (qjk − qjk−1 )η(θj∗k ) for i = 1, ..., m which is strictly increasing in i. Proof of Lemma 4. First we show that S ∗ = {j1 , ..., jm } with j1 < ... < jm cannot contain a dominated product along with a product that dominates it. Suppose not (contradiction), then there must exist ji and ji+1 such that ji+1 dominates ji . In this case we would have cji+1 −cji qji+1 −qji < 0 which contradicts (11) from Lemma 2. Now, suppose S ∗ contains a dominated product but the product(s) that dominate(s) it are not in S ∗ . In this case, there must exists ji for some i = 1, ..., m which is dominated by k where ji < k < ji+1 . Given that ck < cji and qk > qji , ck −cji qk −qji < 0. Let S = {j1 , ..., ji−1 , k, ji+1 , ..., jm }. We know from Lemma 3 that, in S ∗ , θj∗i are obtained using (14). In S, let θjx = θj∗x for x = 1, ..., i − 1, i + 1, ...., m and θk = θj∗i for i = 1, ..., m. We have EΠ(S)− EΠ(S ∗ ) = [1− F (θj∗i )][θj∗i (qk − qji )− (ck − cji )]− [1− F (θj∗i+1 )][θj∗i+1 (qk − qji )− (ck − cji )] = (qk − i h i h c −c c −c c −c qji ) [1 − F (θj∗i )] θj∗i − qkk −qjji − [1 − F (θj∗i+1 )] θj∗i+1 − qkk −qjji . Let ψ(θ) = [1 − F (θ)] θ − qkk −qjji . i i i i h c −c c −c We have ψ ′ (θ) = f (θ) η(θ) + qkk −qjji − θ < 0 given that qkk −qjji < 0 and the FOC (22). Therefore, i i EΠ(S) − EΠ(S ∗ ) > 0 due to the fact that θj∗i+1 > θj∗i and qk > qji . Hence, S ∗ is not optimal, which is a contradiction. Proof of Theorem 2. The proof is similar to that of Theorem 1 and is therefore omitted. Proof of Corollary 3. The proof is similar to that of Corollary 1 and is therefore omitted. Proof of Lemma 5. Let j0 = 0. We first show that (18)-(19) are necessary conditions. We prove (18) by contradiction, that is, suppose that S ∗ is optimal but there exists k ∈ {ji + 1, ..., ji+1 − 1} 35 cji+1 −ck ck −cji qk −qji < qji+1 −qk . Using the cj −cj c −c that qkk −qjji < qji+1 −qji . Let S i i+1 i a b c d a b a+c b+d such that fact that implies = {j1 , ..., ji , k, ji+1 , ..., jm }. We know from Lemma 3 that, in < implies that < ck −cji qk −qji S ∗ , θj∗i are obtained using (14). In S, let θji = θj∗i for i = 1, ..., m. If ck −cji qk −qji ; the solution to θk = η(θk ) + when a, b, c, d > 0, this > cji −cji−1 qji −qji−1 , let θk be otherwise, let θk be a value such that θj∗i < θk < θj∗i+1 . We have EΠ(S) − EΠ(S ∗ ) = [1 − F (θk )][θk (qk − qji ) − (ck − cji )] − [1 − F (θj∗i+1 )][θj∗i+1 (qk − qji ) − (ck − cji )] = (qk − i h i h c −c c −c c −c qji ) [1 − F (θk )] θk − qkk −qjji − [1 − F (θj∗i+1 )] θj∗i+1 − qkk −qjji . Let ψ(θ) = [1 − F (θ)] θ − qkk −qjji . i i i h i cj −cj c −c c −c We have ψ ′ (θ) = f (θ) η(θ) + qkk −qjji − θ . If qkk −qjji > qji −qji−1 , then ψ ′ (θk ) = 0 and ψ ′ (θ) < 0 i i i i−1 for θ > θk ; otherwise, ψ ′ (θ) ≤ 0 for θ ≥ θk , so ψ(θ) is decreasing in θ for θ ≥ θk . Therefore EΠ(S) − EΠ(S ∗ ) > 0 due to the fact that θj∗i+1 > θk and qk > qji . Hence, S ∗ is not optimal, which is a contradiction. Finally we prove that (19) is a necessary condition. Suppose (contradiction) that S ∗ is ck −cjm qk −qjm optimal with jm < n and there exists k ∈ {jm+1 , ..., n} such that < θ̄. Let S = {j1 , ..., jm , k}. In S, let θji = θj∗i for i = 1, ..., m and let θk be any value such that θk < ck −cjm qk −qjm < θ. We have c −c EΠ(S) − EΠ(S ∗ ) = [1 − F (θk )] [θk (qk − qjm ) − (ck − cjm )] = [1 − F (θk )](qk − qjm ) θk − qkk −qjjm > 0. Therefore S∗ cannot be optimal and we have a contradiction. m Now we prove that (11), (18) and (19) are sufficient conditions by showing only one set S ∗ satisfies ∗ 1 } such that j 1 < ... < j 1 these conditions. Suppose we have two sets S1∗ = {j11 , ..., jm m1 and S2 = 1 1 2 } such that j 2 < ... < j 2 satisfying (11), (18) and (19). If we have j 1 = j 2 for k = 1, ..., m {j12 , ..., jm 1 m2 1 k k 2 and m2 > m1 , then (19) applied to S1∗ implies that −cj 2 m1 m1 +1 qj 2 −qj 2 m1 m1 +1 cj 2 ≥ θ̄. However this contradicts (11) for S2∗ . Therefore, we exclude this case. Without loss of generality, let i be the smallest integer such 1 ≥ j 2 , in this case let l be the that jk1 = jk2 for k = 1, ..., i − 1 and ji1 < ji2 . We have two cases: (1) jm i 1 1 < j2. smallest integer such that jl1 ≥ ji2 ; (2) jm i 1 Let us consider Case (1) first. Since S1∗ satisfies (11), we have cj 1 −cj 1 qj 1 −qj 1 l−1 l−1 set i−1 < i−1 S2∗ cj 1 −cj 1 l l−1 qj 1 −qj 1 l l−1 ck −cj 2 i−1 qk −qj 2 < i−1 that 1 jl−1 satisfies (18) and and (ii) together imply to cj 2 −ck i qj 2 −qk i > ck −cj 2 i−1 qk −qj 2 1 qj 1 1 < ... < cj 1 −cj 1 l l−1 qj 1 −qj 1 l , which implies,(i) l−1 1 2 , if j 1 = j 2 , this contradicts with (18) for for i = 1, ..., l − 2. Due to ji−1 = ji−1 i l as it is equivalent to S1∗ cj 1 < l−1 qj 2 −qj 1 i i 1 . So let us assume that j 1 > j 2 . The fact with k = jl−1 i l i cj 2 −cj 1 cj 1 −cj 1 cj 2 −cj 1 ji2 , q i2 −q l−1 j j1 > > , which contradicts (18) for set S2∗ because it is equivalent i cj 2 −cj 1 i cj 2 −ck qj 2 −qk , l−1 cj 1 −cj 1 i−1 l−1 qj 1 l−1 l−1 −qj 1 cj 1 −cj 2 i l qj 1 −qj 2 i l , implies (ii) i l−1 qj 2 −qj 1 i > l−1 l l−1 qj 1 −qj 1 l . Equations (i) l−1 i−1 1 . with k = jl−1 i−1 1 < j 2 . From (19) of set S ∗ , we get Let us now consider Case (2), i.e., jm 1 i 1 for set S2∗ we have cj 1 −cj 2 m1 i−1 m1 i−1 qj 1 −qj 2 ≥ cj 2 −cj 1 i m1 qj 2 −qj 1 i .. This implies that m1 36 cj 1 −cj 1 m1 i−1 m1 i−1 qj 1 −qj 1 cj 2 −cj 1 i m1 qj 2 −qj 1 i > θ̄. From (18) m1 > θ̄ However, by (11) for S1∗ , we must have cj 1 −cj 1 m1 i−1 qj 1 −qj 1 m1 i−1 < cj 1 −cj 1 m1 m1 −1 qj 1 −qj 1 m1 < θ̄, which is a contradiction. Therefore, there exists only one m1 −1 set satisfying (11), (18) and (19), and thus, if a set S ∗ satisfies these conditions, then this set must be the only optimal set. Proof of corollary 4. Follows directly from Lemma 5. Proof of Proposition 1. Let S ∗ = {j1 , ..., jm } with j1 < ... < jm . To prove the optimality of S ∗ we show that the conditions of Lemma 5 are satisfied. Directly from the second inequality in Step 1 in the algorithm, we obtain that (18) of Lemma 5 is satisfied. We now prove by induction that (19) of Lemma 5 also holds. When the algorithm stops, i = jm . cjm +1 −cjm qjm +1 −qjm c −c that qyy −qjjm m ≥ θ̄, since otherwise the If jm = n, then (19) is trivially true. If jm < n, it must be that algorithm would have added jm + 1 to set S ∗ . Now let us assume and x ∈ {jm + 1, ..., n − 1} and prove that cx+1 −cjm qx+1 −qjm ≥ θ̄ for y ∈ {jm + 1, ..., x} ≥ θ̄. Because x + 1 was not added to set S ∗ when i = jm , it must be that at least one of the following condition is true: cx+1 −cjm qx+1 −qjm ≥ θ̄ or ck −cjm qk −qjm ≤ cx+1 −ck qx+1 −qk for some k ∈ {jm + 1, ..., x}. If the first condition is true, then we are done. If the second condition ck −cjm qk −qjm is true, then cx+1 −cjm qx+1 −qjm ≤ cx+1 −cjm qx+1 −qjm . By the induction hypothesis, we know that ck −cjm qk −qjm ≥ θ̄, therefore ≥ θ̄. Hence, (19) of Lemma 5 also holds. We now prove that (11) of Lemma 2 holds. Since, the algorithm adds jm , it must be that cjm −cjm−1 qjm −qjm−1 < θ̄. Now assume (contradiction) that (i) cjx −cjx−1 qjx −qjx−1 cjx −cjx−1 qjx −qjx−1 ≥ cjx+1 −cjx qjx+1 −qjx for some x ∈ {1, ..., m − 1}. cj −cj This implies that ≥ qjx+1 −qjx−1 . Since jx was added by the algorithm, it must be that x+1 x−1 cjx −cjx−1 cjx+1 −cjx−1 ∗ < θ̄. Therefore, (ii) qjx −qjx−1 qjx+1 −qjx−1 < θ̄. The fact that the algorithm added jx to set S also ck −cj cj −cj ck −cj c −c implies that qk −qjx−1 > qjjx −qkk for k = jx−1 + 1, ..., jx − 1, which implies qk −qjx−1 > qjx −qjx−1 for k = x x x−1 x−1 x−1 cj −cj ck −cj jx−1 + 1, ..., jx − 1 and therefore using (i) we have qk −qjx−1 > qjx+1 −qjx for k = jx−1 + 1, ..., jx − 1. x x−1 x+1 Combining the first and third sets of equations and using the fact that that a b > c+e d+f when a, b, c, d, e, f > 0, we obtain (iii) ck −cjx−1 qk −qjx−1 > cjx+1 −ck qjx+1 −qk Similarly, the fact that the algorithm added jx+1 to set S ∗ implies that jx + 1, ..., jx+1 − 1, which implies (i) we have cjx −cjx−1 qjx −qjx−1 > cjx+1 −ck qjx+1 −qk cjx+1 −ck qjx+1 −qk for k = jx + cj −ck ck −cj (iv) qk −qjx−1 > qjx+1 −qk x−1 x+1 > inequalities, we obtain cjx+1 −cjx qjx+1 −qjx a b > c d and a b > e f implies for k = jx−1 + 1, ..., jx − 1. ck −cjx qk −qjx > cjx+1 −ck qjx+1 −qk for k = for k = jx + 1, ..., jx+1 − 1 and therefore using 1, ..., jx+1 − 1 Combining the first and third sets of for k = jx + 1, ..., jx+1 − 1. However, if (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv) were true, then the algorithm would have added jx+1 instead of jx when i = jx−1 . Therefore we have a contradiction. Since (12) and (13) of Lemma 2 follow from (11), we have proven that all five conditions of Lemma 5 are satisfied and therefore S ∗ is optimal. 37 Proof of Corollary 5. In the worst-case scenario, Step 1 has to be repeated for i going from 0 to n. In each iteration we may have to consider up to n − i values of j. Proof of Corollary 6. First we show that for every k which satisfies (18), there cannot be at least two θ values such that θqk − ck = maxi=1,...,n(θqi − ci ). Since qk > qji , we have θqk − ck < θqji − cji for ck −cji qk −qji . Since qk < qji+1 , we have θqk − ck cj −ck c −c (18), qkk −qjji ≥ qji+1 −qk . Next we show that i i+1 cji+1 −ck qji+1 −qk . θ< < θqji+1 − cji+1 for θ > by for every k that satisfies (19), there cannot be at least two We get the result since, values of θ < θ such that θqk −ck = maxi=1,...,n (θqi −ci ). Since qk > qjm , we have θqk −ck < θqjm −cjm for θ< ck −cjm qk −qjm . We get the result since by (19), ck −cjm qk −qjm ≥ θ. Finally we show that for every ji , i = 1, ..., m, there exists at least two values of θ ∈ [θ, θ] such that θqji − cji = maxk=1,...,n(θqk − ck ). From (11), c −c cji+1 −cji cji −cji−1 ji ji−1 cji+1 −cji < and therefore, θq − c = max (θq − c ) for θ ∈ , j j k=1,...,n k k i i qj −qj qj −qj qj −qj qj −qj . i i−1 i+1 i i Proof of Lemma 6. From (14), we get θj∗i = cj −cj i i−1 ji −qji−1 β+ q 1−α i−1 i+1 i . Substituting this expression into (15) gives (20), which implies that rj∗i only depends on cji and qji . Proof of proposition 2. Lemma 6 indicates that the prices of products in the optimal assortment are determined by (20), i.e., such that each price is a function of its own cost and quality level only. Therefore, we can solve the assortment planning problem with exogenous prices defined by (20). Proof of Proposition 3. From Proposition 2, we know that the products that are offered are priced using (20). Let S = {j1 , ..., jm } with j1 < ... < jm be the set of products such that Pji ({1, ..., n}) > 0 when rji = cji +bqji 1−a . In other words, we have Pk ({1, ..., n}) = 0 for k ∈ / S. We show that S satisfies the conditions of Lemmas 2 and 5. First, from the definition of S it must be that rj1 qj1 < rj2 −rj1 qj2 −qj1 < ... < rjm −rjm−1 qjm −qjm−1 < θ̄. Using condition (20), we get cj1 qj1 < cj2 −cj1 qj2 −qj1 < ... < cjm −cjm−1 qjm −qjm−1 < θ̄, which is (11) from Lemma 2. The other conditions from Lemma 2 follow from this one. For k such that ji < k < ji+1 , By definition of S, it must be that ck −cji qk −qj > cji+1 −ck qji+1 −qk , S, it must be that rk −rji qk −qji > rji+1 −rk qji+1 −qk Using condition (20), we get which is (18) from Lemma 5. Now consider k such that k > jm . By definition of rk −rjm qk −qjm ≥ θ̄. Using condition (20), we get ck −cjm qk −qjm ≥ θ̄, which is condition (19) from Lemma 5. It follows that S satisfies all the conditions of Lemma 5 and therefore it is optimal. ∗ is such that for j ∈ S ∗ , there exists at least two Proof of Proposition 4. By Corollary 6, SN N ∗ ∩ N ′ , it must be true values of θ ∈ [θ, θ] such that θqj − cj = maxi∈N (θqi − ci ). Consider j ∈ SN that there exists at least two values of θ ∈ [θ, θ] such that θqj − cj = maxi∈N ′ (θqi − ci ). Therefore, ∗ . j ∈ SN ′ 38 Lemma 7. Lemma 1 holds when EΠ is given by (21). Proof. 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