DeComposition Analysis & Extrapolation
Contribution to FLERMONECA workshop
Environmental reporting, forecasting and near-to-real time data
Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 23th April - 24th April
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Outline
1. Methodology
2. Examples of ex-post DCA usage
3. Examples of ex-ante DCA and DCE usage
4. Possible ex-ante usage of DCE for Forward-Looking
Information and Services
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1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
4. Usage of DCA/DCE
1. Methodology
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DeComposition Analysis DCA
 Ex-post component analysis of a certain environmental
parameter with well-known driving forces
 Raw Material Equivalents (RME), GHG emissions, etc.
 Parameter is decomposed into a product of relevant factors
 Factors (components)
 Contribution of these factors to parameter change
 Total effect on the parameter without a single factor while leaving the
other components constant is assumed to represent approximately the
contribution of this factor to the total change of the parameter
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1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
4. Usage of DCA/DCE
Decomposition Extrapolation DCE
 Ex-ante application of DeComposition Analysis comparing
two scenarios with estimations from base to target year
 Baseline scenario (Business as usual)
 Policy and Measures (PaM) scenario
 Estimation of total factor change from base to target year
 Expectation value
 Minimum
 Maximum
 Policies, measures and their interdependencies are
considered
 Rebound effects, mutual reduction or synergetic enhancement
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1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
4. Usage of DCA/DCE
2. Examples of ex-post DCA usage
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Ex-post DCA for the total GHG emissions of 32 EIONET
countries: Main drivers for trends from 1990-2009
DeComposition Analysis (DCA) EIONET countries 1990-2009
40
20
Energy-related Total GHG
Emissions (2009)
60
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Fuel Intensity
Fossil Fuel Intensity
80
Population
GDP per inhabitant
100
Energy-related Total GHG
Emissions (1990)
Base year 1990 = 100 percent
120
0
Comparison 1990 and last data year 2009
1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
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4. Usage of DCA/DCE
3. Examples of ex-ante DCA and DCE
usage
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‘Baseline-Scenario’ DCE for the total GHG emissions of 32
EIONET countries: Main drivers for trends from 1990-2050
DeComposition Extrapolation (DCE) EIONET countries Baseline
1990-2050
20
Fuel Intensity
Energy-related Total GHG
Emissions (2050)
Energy Intensity
40
Fossil Fuel Intensity
60
Carbon Intensity
80
GDP per inhabitant
100
Population
120
Energy-related Total GHG
Emissions (1990)
Base year 1990 = 100 percent
140
0
Comparison 1990 and target year 2050
1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
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4. Usage of DCA/DCE
‘PaM-Scenario’ DCE for the total GHG emissions of 32
EIONET countries: Main drivers for trends from 1990-2050
20
Energy-related Total GHG
Emissions (2050)
Fossil Fuel Intensity
Energy Intensity
40
Fuel Intensity
60
Carbon Intensity
80
GDP per inhabitant
100
Population
120
Energy-related Total GHG
Emissions (1990)
Base year 1990 = 100 percent
140
DeComposition Extrapolation (DCE) EIONET countries PaM 19902050
0
Comparison 1990 and target year 2050
1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
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4. Usage of DCA/DCE
DCE for the total GHG emissions of 32 EIONET
countries: Main drivers for trends from 1990-2050
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1. Methodology
2. Ex-post DCA
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
4. Usage of DCA/DCE
4. Possible ex-ante use of DCE
for Forward-Looking Services
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Application of DCA & DCE projects
Aim
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Analysis of effect by the change of driving forces
Design of effective and controllable measures
First estimation for a scenario assessment
Backcasting from political targets to the needed change of components
Estimation of trends, policies, measures and uncertainties
Method
Ex-post:
DCA
Ex-ante:
DCE
Design elements
Key issues of policy
Good estimation practice
Error propagation
1. Methodology
Additionality
2. Ex-post DCA
Key indicators
Trends and extrapolation of drivers
Confidence range of results
3. Ex-ante DCA/DCE
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4. Usage of DCA/DCE
Please don’t hesitate to contact us, if you are interested in
applying DCA/DCE in a Smart City or other regional (national)
project looking at PaMs regarding energy, raw material
equivalents (RME), GHG emissions or other environmental
parameters.
Alexander Storch
[email protected]
++43 (0)1 313 04/5965
Environment Agency Austria, Vienna
www.umweltbundesamt.at
FLERMONECA Workshop
Tashkent ■ April 24th to April 25th, 2015
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