Symmetric Off-Diagonals in the Pasinetti Pure Labour Model Andrew B. Trigg May 2013 Department of Economics Faculty of Social Sciences The Open University Walton Hall Milton Keynes MK7 6AA UK 1 1. Introduction In Pasinetti’s pioneering work on structural economic dynamics, a key contribution is in the modelling of disproportional growth in the composition of industrial sectors. Differential change in productivity and consumption patterns leads to uneven development and structural change in the long term: all captured in a multisectoral framework in which there is a social division of labour and specialization between sectors. In the most abstract pure labour version of this approach (Pasinetti 1993) labour is the only factor of a production, a simplification that allows a clear focus on structural change, together with foundational insights into the structure of savings, consumption, and debt. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new result concerning the intersectoral flows of commodities between sectors in the Pasinetti framework. It will be shown that the matrix of intersectoral flows is symmetric. The flow of commodities from sector i to j is identical to the flow in the opposite direction between j and i . A structural constraint is hence identified in the Pasinetti system that is specific to the intersectoral relationships between sectors. In Section 1, this symmetry result is derived from the Pasinetti pure labour model, and illustrated using a three sector numerical example. Section 2 then examines the implications of this result for Pasinetti’s structural dynamics, followed in Section 3 by a consideration of savings and consumption; Section 4 offers some conclusions. 2. Symmetric Off-Diagonals Consider the pure labour model, as developed by Pasinetti (1993, pp. 17-18): Qi ciQn (1) Qn l1Q1 l2Q2 lmQm (2) pi wli (3) w p1c1 p2c2 pmcm (4) The first set of two equations represent the quantity system for an economy in which labour is the sole factor of production and only consumption goods are produced – a closed input-output model in which there is no exogenous component of final demand. In equation (1), the total physical quantity of output produced (Qi ) for sector i is related to the total volume of labour employed (Qn ) , according to the size of the consumption coefficient (ci ) . Equation (2) shows, using direct labour coefficients (li ) , that all labour is directed to the production of output in m sectors: Q1...Qm . The second set of equations represents a price system. A pure labour theory of value is shown in (3), with money prices ( pi ) proportional to labour coefficients according to the scalar money wage rate (w) . Equation (4) shows that this wage is all spent on consumption goods. 2 We can use this model to explore the structure of total flows in a multisectoral economy. First, let each Cij represent the flow of physical consumption goods from sector i to j , which in Table 1 are valued in labour units. Table 1 Total Labour Unit Flows in a Multisectoral Economy Buyer Seller 1 2 3 m 1 2 3 m l1C11 l2C21 l3C31 lmCm1 l1C12 l2C22 l3C32 lmCm 2 l1C13 l2C23 l3C33 l1C1m l2C2 m l3C3m lm C m 3 lmCmm Second, the total physical flows of consumption goods can then be related to the quantity of output labour employed in each sector, such that: Cij cil j Q j (5) For each quantity of output Q j a volume of labour activity l j Q j is required; and this induces a flow Cij of consumption goods from i to j , subject to the size of the consumption coefficient c i . Substituting (5) into Table 1, a new intersectoral matrix (Table 2) is derived. 3 Table 2 Detailed Structure of Total Labour Unit Flows in a Multisectoral Economy Buyer Seller 1 2 3 m 1 2 3 m l1c1l1Q1 l2c2l1Q1 l3c3l1Q1 lmcml1Q1 l1c1l2Q2 l2c2l2Q2 l3c3l2Q2 lmcml2Q2 l1c1l3Q3 l2c2l3Q3 l3c3l3Q3 l1c1lmQm l2c2lmQm l3c3lmQm lmcml3Q3 lmcmlmQm We can now examine the relationship between the off-diagonals. It can first be stated, from equation (1) of the Pasinetti model, that the ratio of physical quantities between any two sectors i and j is governed by the relative magnitude of consumption coefficients: Qi c i Qj cj (6) Multiplying throughout (6) by a multiple of the labour coefficients for these two sectors (lil j ) , and re-arranging, it follows that l j c j liQi li cil j Q j (7) This is a remarkable result. It shows that the off-diagonals in Table 3 are symmetrical. The flow of total value, measured in labour units, from sector 2 to sector 1, for example, are identical to the flow in the opposite direction, from sector 1 to sector 2: l2c2l1Q1 l1c1l2Q2 (8) This pairwise identity between off-diagonals also applies to flows from sectors 1 to 3 in symmetry with 3 to 1, sectors 2 to 3 in symmetry with 3 to 2, and so on and so forth. An economic reasoning for this symmetry is straightforward. Consider on the righthand side of (8) the effect of l2Q2 , the volume of labour employed in sector 2. Via l1c1 , this sector 2 employment leads to consumption (and output) of good 1, and hence employment of workers producing good 1. This employment of sector 1 workers also appears on the left hand side of (8), in the form of l1Q1 . There, via l2c2 , sector 1 employment translates into expenditure on good 2, and hence employment in sector 2. Since this is a consumption-only system, employment in sector 1 generates sufficient consumer expenditure to generate matching employment in sector 2. There is a mutual dependence of each sector on their respective levels of employment and consumption. 4 The symmetry of intersectoral flows can illustrated using a three sector example, in which 40 units of labour employed. Coefficients are assumed to take values c1 1.5, c2 1, c3 1.25, l1 0.25, l2 0.5, and l3 0.1. The solution of this system yields volumes of physical output Q1 60, Q2 40, and Q3 50 . Table 3 shows the flows between these three sectors measured in labour units. As expected, the off-diagonals are symmetric, with for example 7.5 units flowing from workers in sector 2 to workers in sector 1; this is matched by 7.5 units flowing in the opposite direction, from workers in sector 2 to sector 1. There are two other pairwise identities, of 1.875 (flows between sectors 1 and 3) and 2.5 (between 2 and 3). This pattern is discerned despite specialisation of workers, and the different labour and consumption coefficients between sectors. Table 3 A Three Sector Example of Intersectoral Flows Period 0 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 5.625 7.5 1.875 Sector 2 7.5 10 2.5 Sector 3 1.875 2.5 0.625 In the following and subsequent parts of the paper some implications of this result will be explored. 3. Structural Economic Dynamics In contrast to the usual one-good assumptions adopted in modern growth theory, Pasinetti develops a model of structural dynamics in which proportions vary between sectors. In the pure labour approach, disproportional changes in labour and consumption coefficients are allowed for. First, ri is defined as the rate of change of the per capita consumption coefficient for each sector i (Pasinetti 1993, p. 40). Rates of change can be different between sectors such that ri r j (9) Using an exponential term to model growth, the consumption coefficient for good i at time t then takes the form ci (t ) ci (0)e ri t , (10) 5 where ci (0) is the consumption coefficient for good i in the base period (period 0). Second, labour productivity is posited to improve over time at a rate i for each sector i , as expressed in declining labour coefficients: li (t ) li (0)e t (11) Under structural economic dynamics, the rates of change of consumption and labour coefficients can vary between sectors: ri i (12) This approach can be illustrated by considering two periods (t 0, 1) in which our earlier three sector example, as represented in Table 3, represents period 0. Allowing total employment to increase by 10 per cent from 40 to 44 units, a change in the proportions between sectors can be simulated: with one additional unit of labour in sector 1, four additional units in sector 2, and one less unit in sector 3. In period 1, new volumes of physical output are also established of 70 for sector 1, 60 for sector 2 and 65 for sector 3. To achieve this outcome, the following rates of change for consumption and labour coefficients are specified: r1 6%, r2 36% , r3 18%, 1 9%, 2 20% , 3 38% The three-sector economy in period 1 is hence reported in Table 4. Table 4 Symmetrical Flows under Structural Dynamics (Period 1) Period 1 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 5.818 8.727 1.455 Sector 2 8.727 13.091 2.182 Sector 3 1.455 2.182 0.364 Despite the structural dynamics simulated between periods 0 and 1, with varying consumption patterns and productivity, the same symmetric structure as Table 1 is sustained. There remain three pairwise identities on the off-diagonals. For example, the flows between 1 and 2 (and in the opposite direction between 2 and 1) increase to 8.727 in period 1, compared to the previous level of 7.5 in period 0. But note that the other two pairwise identities decrease in size, from 1.875 to 1.455 (between sectors 1 and 3) and from 2.5 to 2.182 (between sectors 2 and 3). There is disproportional structural change in the off diagonal elements of the intersectoral flows matrix, within the confines of its symmetric structure. The implications of this insight for our understanding of structural economic dynamics can be explored by re-expressing the two-period simulation in coefficient form. To do this per capita output coefficients 6 Qi Qn qi (13) are required. By dividing (7) by Qn (total employment) a new expression for the symmetry between off-diagonals is then derived: l j c j li qi li ci l j q j (14) Hence in Table 5 a symmetric table of intersectoral flows for m sectors can be expressed in coefficient form (by dividing throughout Table 2 by Qn ). Each element represents the intersectoral flow of labour units per unit of aggregate employment. Table 5 Intersectoral Flows in Coefficient Form Buyer Seller 1 2 3 m 1 2 3 m l1c1l1q1 l2c2l1q1 l3c3l1q1 lmcml1q1 l1c1l2q2 l2c2l2q2 l3c3l2 q2 lmcml2q2 l1c1l3q3 l1c1lm qm l2c2l3q3 l2c2lm qm l3c3l3q3 l3c3lm qm lmcml3q3 lmcmlm qm Two points can be made about this table of coefficients. First, the row and column sums represent the shares of each sector out of total employment. To see this, by using (13) and Pasinetti’s condition for full employment, m l c i 1 i i 1 (Pasinetti 1993, p. 18), the column sum for any sector i in Table 5 takes the form: m li qi li ci li qi i liQi Qn (15) The column sum captures the share of employment in sector i out of total employment. Since under symmetry row and column sums are identical, it follows that the row sums also represent employment shares. Second, the column and row sums of the table of coefficients can be interpreted as backward and forward linkages, which have been considered important in the inputoutput literature for understanding structural change. Backward linkages represent the purchases by a particular industry of products from other industries; forward linkages 7 represent the destination of a particular industry’s outputs to other industries. This approach was originally pioneered by Chenery and Watanabe (1958), where the interindustry coefficients were used to interpret direct and indirect linkages between industries. Since then more sophisticated linkage analysis has been developed for open input-output models using multiplier decomposition (e.g. Sonis, Hewings and Guo, 1996 ). For our purposes, however, under the confines of a closed input-output framework, the analysis of linkages is confined to interindustry coefficients. Reading down a typical column in Table 5, for any sector i , the coefficients show for a given level of employment, Qn , the amount of output (measured in labour units) purchased from each sector. These are the backward linkages for sector i . Now reading along a typical row for sector i , the coefficients show, for a given level of employment, the destination of its product to other sectors. These are the forward linkages for sector i . The total backward linkages for each sector are represented by the column sums of Table 5; the total forward linkages are represented by the row sums. Since under symmetry the row and column sums are identical, it follows that the total forward and backward linkages, as here defined, are also identical. To summarise, the identical row and column sums of the intersectoral flows matrix (in coefficient form) represent both (a) shares in employment of each sector; and (b) backward and forward linkages for each sector. Using these two insights, further consideration can be given of our two-period simulation of structural dynamics. Dividing throughout Tables 3 and 4 by their respective employment aggregates (40 and 44), structural change between the two periods can be considered in coefficient form, as in Table 6. Table 6 Two Period Structural Dynamics in Coefficient Form Period 0 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Row Sum 0.141 0.188 0.047 0.375 0.188 0.25 0.063 0.50 0.047 0.063 0.016 0.125 Column Sum 0.375 0.5 0.125 1 Period 1 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Row Sum 0.132 0.198 0.033 0.364 0.198 0.298 0.050 0.545 0.033 0.050 0.008 0.091 0.364 0.545 0.091 1 Comparison of row (and column) sums shows that under our simulation of structural dynamics sector 2 increases its share of total employment from 0.5 to 0.545. The other two sectors undergo reductions in their employment sectors, from 0.375 to 0.364 for sector 1, and from 0.125 to 0.091 for sector 3. By varying productivity and consumption patterns, Pasinetti’s framework can be used to model disproportional changes in employment between sectors. 8 It can, however, be argued that the symmetric structure of the Pasinetti framework limits the degree of disproportional growth that can be modelled. Pairwise identities between off-diagonal elements constrain the degree of variation between cells across the industrial structure. In their study of structural change in the US economy, Guo, J. and Planting, M.A. (2000) have viewed this type of symmetric structure as an intermediate step in developing a fully developed model of structural change. This argument is made by providing a taxonomy of different types of input-output structure. These develop from the most basic type, in which there is a complete absence of intersectoral linkages, to the most advanced type in which there are asymmetrical variations between offdiagonal cells. Models with symmetrical off diagonals are placed in between, providing an intermediate stage in the analysis of structural change. They argue that under the structural change that characterised the US economy over the period 1972 to 1996 there were extensive variations between off-diagonal elements. This structural change incorporated variations in forward and backward linkages of industrial sectors, a feature that we have seen is not provided for within the constraints of the Pasinetti pure labour model. 4. Consumption and Savings The symmetric off-diagonals result can also throw some light on Pasinetti’s analysis of consumption and savings. The starting point is the assumption, embedded in the pure labour model, that savings, the difference between national income and overall current consumption, must be zero. So long as there no capital goods, and no durable consumption goods – Pasinetti assumes that all goods are perishable – income can be earned only from the sale of current consumption goods; it is not possible for income to exceed current consumption. There must be zero aggregate savings. But within this macroeconomic constraint, the possibility is afforded for some individuals to spend less than their income. Savings can then be lent to other individuals who through dissaving spend more than their income. Individuals enter into debt-credit relationships, in which for savers consumption is postponed, and for debtors consumption is brought forward by borrowing out of future income. There is a transfer of consumption between individuals over time. Under the zero aggregate savings constraint, these savings and dissavings cancel out in the aggregate. Pasinetti extents this consideration of debt-credit relationships to the sectoral level. He writes of ‘the many ways in which savings and dissavings (and the possibilities of inter-temporal transfers of consumption) become possible individually and sectorally, even if they cancel out in the aggregate’ (Pasinetti 1993, p. 85, my emphasis). It is possible, Pasinetti argues, for one sector to carry out savings that are cancelled out by dissavings in another sector. The public sector may, for example, run a deficit that is counterbalanced by savings in the private sector. Transfers of consumption ‘are perfectly possible between individuals (and therefore also between the public sector and the private sector of the economy), provided that – within the macro-economic constraint concerning full employment – they compensate each other in the aggregate, at any given moment in time’ (Pasinetti 1993, p. 101). 9 The sectoral structure of savings and dissavings can be explored by transforming our table of intersectoral flows into money units. Integral to Pasinetti’s price system, as reported in equations (3) and (4), is the uniform money wage rate (w) . Using (3), this can be used to transform each labour coefficient (li ) into a price coefficient ( pi ) . By multiplying this scalar throughout Table 2, a new table of intersectoral flows can be derived, expressed in money price units (Table 7). Table 7 Total Money Flows in a Multisectoral Economy Buyer Seller 1 2 3 m 1 2 3 p1c1l1Q1 p2c2l1Q1 p3c3l1Q1 pmcml1Q1 p1c1l3Q3 p1c1l2Q2 p2c2l2Q2 p2c2l3Q3 p3c3l2Q2 p3c3l3Q3 pmcml2Q2 pmcml3Q3 m p1c1lmQm p2c2lmQm p3c3lmQm pmcmlmQm This transformation into money units, since it uses the uniform scalar wage rate, does not alter the symmetrical structure of intersectoral flows. The money flows between any sectors i and j are matched by identical flows in the opposite direction. Furthermore, this means that the column totals in Table 7 are also identical to row totals. For any sector i money its total outlays are matched by its total money receipts. This can be illustrated in our three sector example, by transforming Table 3 assuming a uniform wage rate of £2 for each unit of labour. The total employment of 40 units earns a national income of £80 that in Table 8 is distributed between sectors. Table 8 Money Intersectoral Flows in Three Sector Example (£ units) Period 0 Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Outlays Sector 1 11.25 15 3.75 30 Sector 2 15 20 5 40 Sector 3 3.75 5 1.25 10 Receipts 30 40 10 This example shows the money outlays for each sector as represented by column sums and the receipts of each sector represented by row totals. For sector 1, the total outlays of £30 are precisely matched by receipts of £30; for sector 2 receipts and outlays are £40; for sector 2 there is a £10 outlay/receipt. There is no possibility afforded for sectors to have outlays that either exceed or undershoot their receipts due to the symmetric structure of the intersectoral flows. 10 It would therefore be wrong to state that ‘the only constraint’ on the pure labour system is the zero aggregate savings condition. Under symmetry, there is a zero sectoral savings condition in which it is not possible for any sector to have outlays that exceed its receipts. The system is not wide open to possibilities of transfers of consumption between sectors over time. 4. Conclusions This paper presents a new result concerning the structure of intersectoral flows generated by the Pasinetti pure labour model. Off diagonal elements, representing flows from one sector to another, are identical in both directions. These pairwise identities can be attributed to the mutual dependence, via consumer expenditure, of each sector’s employment on the employment of workers in other sectors. Two main implications of this result are explored. First, the symmetric structure is integral to Pasinetti’s model of structural dynamics, with varying consumption and productivity patterns, and disproportional structural change. But Pasinetti’s pure labour model is argued to provide an intermediate stage in the analysis of structural dynamics; a more advanced treatment would allow for full variation in off-diagonal cells. Second, it is shown that under symmetry there are restrictions on the savings and dissavings that can be carried out at the sectoral level. Under this zero sectoral savings constraint, deficits and surpluses cannot be established for either the private or public sectors. Again, the symmetric structure of intersectoral flows suggests that the model should be viewed as an intermediate stage, preparing the ground for a more advanced treatment of imbalances between sectors. It should be emphasised that such an unravelling of economic structures, on a step by step basis, depends critically on the analytical clarity that is provided by Pasinetti’s foundational insights. Only by boiling down the key features of production systems, in their most abstract form, can we decompose the myriad of complex processes into their component parts. By focusing on the importance of symmetric structures, this paper offers a contribution to this Pasinetti-inspired research programme. References Chenery, H.B. and Watanabe, T (1958), "International Comparisons of the Structure of Production", Econometrica, 26 (4), October, pp.487-521. Guo, J. and Planting, M.A. (2000) ‘Using input-output analysis to measure U.S. structural change over a 24 year period’, Paper presented to the 13th International Conference on Input-Output Techniques, Macerata, Italy, August 21-28, Pasinetti, L.L. (1993) Structural Economic Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Sonis, M., Hewings, G.J.D., and J. Guo (1996) ‘Sources of Structural Change in Input-Output Systems: A Field of Influence Approach’, Economic Systems Research, Vol. 8, No. 1. 11
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