Prairie and Arctic Storm
Prediction Centre
Pat McCarthy & Steve Knott
Program Supervisors
PASPC Background
• Storm Prediction Centre split over two
locations (Winnipeg/Edmonton)
• 24/7 Operations
• Focus on HIW forecasting
• Largest area of responsibility in
the world
• Largest number of products in
the world:
– ~140 forecast regions
– Over 800 warning regions
– Large marine responsibility
• 9 Doppler radars
HIW experience
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Over 40 tornadoes per year
Most severe thunderstorms
Most blizzards in Canada
Most extreme windchill events
1st in Canada to provide dedicated 24/7 severe
weather forecaster coverage
• During day, 4 forecasters available for severe
weather forecasting
• All staff are trained to meet a high level of
severe weather expertise
Scientific interests
• BL processes!
– Appears to play an important role for
throughout the year
– Severe convection seems related to
evapotranspiration and other local effects (in
addition to dominant advective processes)
– Lack of data (BL and Upper air) makes it
difficult to understand this impact
– Frustrating for forecasters
– Hinders HIW forecasting
STABLE
• Originated STABLE concept in
1999
• To address:
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Better understand BL processes
Their impact on storm initiation
Their impact on storm evolution
Develop conceptual models to “fill
in the blanks” in the data
– Calgary - Red Deer corridor
seemed the most affected and was
deemed to be a great place to
study
– Information to be applied to
remainder of the Prairies and
beyond
– mesoscale modeling?
PASPC Involvement in
UNSTABLE
• 4 areas:
– Forecast support
– Science support
– Pre-project logistics
– Science transfer to SPCs/developers
Forecast support
• Provide daily forecasts
• Provide daily consultation
• Forecasters available 24/7 for forecast
support from SPC
• Forecasters on-site?
Science Support
• SPC research targeted to UNSTABLE
goals
• Staff available to participate in research
activities (Before, during and after project)
• Possibly available to assist field work
activities
Pre-project Support
• Available for summer 2007 to test forecast
logistics
• Available to support RSD activities related
to UNSTABLE for 2007/2008
• Available to fill in behind RSD to free
UNSTABLE scientists
Science Transfer
• Co-author research papers
• Develop case studies
• Present findings at
conferences/workshops
• Establish training for staff
• Work with developers to incorporate
lessons, ideas, etc. (e.g. mesoscale
modeling, NinJo, etc.)
Preliminary Milestones
• Spring 2007: identify PASPC participants to work on
UNSTABLE science objectives (in collaboration with the
Labs and universities)
• Summer 2007 – RSD tests with HAL to understand
requirements for 2008 (mini UNSTABLE?)
• Summer 2007 – Spring 2008: work on pre-experiment
science
• Spring 2008 – training for staff/students participating in filed
work.
• Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on field project
objectives, requirements and support techniques/procedures
• Spring 2008 – training for RSD forecasters on any unique
tools used for the desk
• June 2008 – run RSD tests
• July 2008 – Deploy staff to the field and to the RSD
• August 2008 and beyond – continue science and prepare
papers
• Fall 2008 – provide Project summary report on PASPC’s
participation
Questions?