Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
POSSIBLE PARTNERSHIP AMONG
INSTITUTIONS WITH THE AIM OF IMPROVING
HISTORICAL EMISSIONS DATABASE ON LAND
USE CHANGE AND DOMESTIC LIVESTOCK
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
IVIG-COPPE/UFRJ – International Virtual Institute on Global Change
Prof. Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – coordinator
Team:
10/9/2003
Maria Silvia Muylaert
Christiano P. Campos
Leonardo Cardoso
Corbiniano Silva
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Present situation - IVIG´s Project framework
Energy
CO2
CH4
• Oil &
Natural
Gas
Fugitive
Emissions
of:
• Oil &
Natural
Gas
• Coal
• Coal
Industrial
Processes
N2O
Chemical
Industry
CO2
Agriculture
N2O
Cement
• Manure
Production
• Fertilizers
CH4
• Enteric
Fermentation
Land Use
Change and
Forestry
CO2
N2O
CH4
Deforestation
Human
Sewage
Solid waste
disposal
(domestic
and
industrial)
• Manure
• Rice
cultivation
10/9/2003
Waste
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Present situation - IVIG´s Project framework
Database structure – Greenhouse gases emissions database
Historical human activity database (primary information, eg.
population, areas, emission factors, and CO2, CH4 and N2O
emission data, calculated according to IPCC methodology);
Organized on a yearly base and shared regarding different activities (land
use change, fossil fuel, waste and so on ) per countries;
This database is stored in an Oracle server, in a Linux
machine, on IVIG’s intranet.
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Present situation - IVIG´s Project framework
Already existing data
Data on CO2 historical emissions from energy sector
Data on CH4 historical emissions from enteric fermentation
Data on N2O from manure management
Data regards all countries individually
Analysed period
1751-1990
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Database Present situation of IVIG´s Project
Historical emissions data with consensus: energy and cement
SOURCES: CDIAC, 2002
EDGAR-HYDE
Contribution to Global Warming of the Annex I and N-Annex I
Parties due to energy sector and cement production 1751-1998
GW (Gt C.year)
2500
Annex I
2000
1500
1000
500
N-Annex I
1751
1764
1777
1790
1803
1816
1829
1842
1855
1868
1881
1894
1907
1920
1933
1946
1959
1972
1985
0
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Present situation blanks - IVIG´s Project framework
Land use change and forestry historical emissions
database
Domestic livestock historical emissions database
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Next Steps - IVIG´s Project framework
Improve modelling
In that sense, IVIG/COPPE/UFRJ and ECOFYS have
stablished a partnership aiming the better understanding of
the countries´ share of responsibility on Climate Change
Filling database blanks
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Database importance:
Models need data to:
be useful
be calibrated
be reliable
Present situation shows big number of
uncertainties on database
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Next Steps - IVIG´s Project framework
Towards filling blanks
Land use historical emissions databases;
Differences between
RIVM and INPE
databases were observed
Domestic livestock historical emission databases;
There are several uncertaintes related to the
domestic livestock historical database, due to
1. Adaptation of the IPCC methodology inventory by
countries;
2. Geographic differences;
3. Historical differences in terms of organization of the
animals over the land and so on...
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Kinds of problems – Land use historicals emission
databases
Geographic limits
Size
Methodology differences
Deforestation concepts
Classification differences
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
South America
Land use in 1990 according to RIVM
10/9/2003
Land use in 1990 according to INPE
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Example of Size Problem
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Differences in methodology
INPE
RIVM
Considers lost forest areas
according to satelite captured
images
Considers lost forest areas due
to population density and land
use change
Differences in size
INPE
The used size is 1: 250.000,
which enables alteration
identification in areas of forest
profile from 6.25 ha or from
0.0625 km2
10/9/2003
RIVM
The used size 1:10.000.000
permits identification of
populational densities of 2.5 km2
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Differences in classification
INPE
RIVM
There are more than 8
biomas defined only in
Brazilian Amazon forest
Defines a certain number of
world biomas that does not
efficiently match Amazon ones
Differences in deforestantion concepts
INPE
Primary forest area:
antropogenic changes towards
agricultural activities. Such
concept also includes natural
forest recomposition
10/9/2003
RIVM
Generalization of density
population data due to the
increasing demand for land use
towards agricultural and industrial
activities
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Next steps towards filling blanks on domestic livestock
database
Database of enteric fermentation CH4 historical
emissions from domestic livestock per country
Database of manure management N2O historical
emissions from domestic livestock per country
IVIG-COPPE/UFRJ has already developed a database on both
cases only for cattle
Problems are more difficult to identify since there is no
previous data to be compared and discussed
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
Land use change emissions
database – possible cooperation
among
IVIG
Domestic livestock emissions
database – possible cooperation
among
IVIG
RIVM
FAO
WRI
IPAM
UNFCCC
MCT
RIVM
WRI
UNFCCC
INPE
EMBRAPA
INPE
A case study which would include Amazonia and Mata
Atlantica should be developed for clearing uncertainties
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br
MCT
Possible Partnership Among Institutions with the
Aim of Improving Historical Emissions Database
on Land Use Change and Domestic Livestock
The main goal of IVIG-COPPE is to contribute to the
international debate about the Proposal by Brazil and
disseminate such an important discussion among
academic people, what will certainly generate
research in understanding our past toward planning
our future.
10/9/2003
International Virtual Institute of Global Change
Centro de Tecnologia, Bloco I, Sala 129 – CEP: 21945-970 – Rio de Janeiro – RJ
Tel: 55-21-25627070 Fax:55-21-22701586 Home-page:www.ivig.com.br