Centre for Housing Research
University of St Andrews
The Effect of Neighbourhood
Housing Tenure Mix on Labour
Market Outcomes:
A Longitudinal Perspective
Dr Maarten van Ham & Dr David Manley
Scottish
Survey
Network,
8 January
2009
Centre Social
for Housing
Research,
University
of St Andrews
Tenure mix policies
• There is a strong belief in neighbourhood
effects: the assumed negative effect of living in
deprived neighbourhoods – above and beyond the
effect of individual characteristics – on resident’s
health, employment and general well-being.
• Governments all over Europe have
enthusiastically adopted policies to socially mix
neighbourhoods.
• The main instrument to create socially mixed
neighbourhoods is mixing tenures: mixing home
owners and social renters.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
QUESTION:
Is there a benefit of living in a mixed
tenure neighbourhood compared to
living in a socially rented
neighbourhood?
We will test this using the Scottish
Longitudinal Study
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Outline of this talk
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Policy background
Existing evidence on neighbourhood effects
Research questions
Why use longitudinal data?
Research design
Models and outcomes
Policy implications
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Firm Foundations: the future of
housing in Scotland
“… worried about the impact that
concentrations of social housing have
on particular neighbourhoods and the
people who live there. The most
deprived 15% of neighbourhoods are
characterised by high concentrations
of social housing and more generally,
as chart 13 illustrates, there appears
to be a strong correlation between
concentrations of social housing and
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
deprivation.”
Firm Foundations: the future of
housing in Scotland
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Firm Foundations: the future of
housing in Scotland
“The benefits of avoiding concentrations
of deprivation and social housing by
creating communities with a mixture of
tenures and a mixture of households
have been recognised for some time.”
(Holmes, C., Mixed Communities: Success and Sustainability,
Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 2007 as in Firm Foundations)
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
The evidence?
• Research consistently shows that
neighbourhoods with high levels of social
renting have higher levels of
unemployment, crime, and long term
limiting illness.
• Research also shows that individuals in
neighbourhoods with high concentrations
of social renting are more likely to be
unemployed and suffer from poorer health.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
“There is surprisingly little evidence
that living in poor neighbourhoods
makes people poorer and erodes
their life chances, independently of
those factors that contribute to their
poverty in the first place.” (Paul
Cheshire, JRF, 2007)
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
“do poor people live in poor
neighbourhoods because living in
affluent ones costs too much? Or
does living in a poor neighbourhood
make poor people significantly
poorer?” (Paul Cheshire, JRF, 2007)
Evidence using longitudinal data
suggests most neighbourhood effects
found
are
in fact
selection
effects.
Centre
for Housing
Research,
University of
St Andrews
Two problems with many existing
studies on neighbourhood effects
• Ecological fallacy
– Analyses at the level of neighbourhoods do not
necessarily say anything useful about
processes at the individual level.
• Most analyses are cross sectional
– Most studies only show correlations and no
causation. Existing evidence is most likely
reversed causality.
– Existing longitudinal studies show no evidence
of neighbourhood effects or a benefit of mixed
tenure neighbourhoods.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Our contribution to the literature
• Individual level analysis (avoids the ecological
problem).
• Use of longitudinal data from the Scottish
Longitudinal Study (SLS), allowing us to follow
individuals over a 10-year period (avoiding the
cross sectional problem).
• Advantages of using the SLS:
– Large-scale data set: 5.3% sample of the Scottish
population based on 1991 and 2001 individual
census records
– Low spatial level geo-coding allowing researchers
to link neighbourhood characteristics to individual
records.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Research Question
• The literature suggests that individuals in
neighbourhoods with high levels of social
renting are less likely to escape
unemployment or, if employed, to keep
their job.
• Research Question: To what extent does
the neighbourhood tenure mix influence
transitions out of unemployment?
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Research design
• Model whether the 1991 neighbourhood
tenure mix influences the:
1. probability that those who are unemployed
in 1991 have a job in 2001
2. probability that those who are employed in
1991 (still) have a job in 2001 .
• Controlling for neighbourhood & individual
& household characteristics.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Causality
• It is important to realise that we use 1991 data to
measure 2001 outcome.
• For instance:
– 1991 Education
– 1991 Neighbourhood
– 1991 Tenure.
• Also include 1991-2001 change variables:
– 1991 compared to 2001 Household Status
– 1991 compared to 2001 Health.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Definition of Neighbourhood
• Need to use administrative neighbourhoods
• The use of these is highly contested as
neighbourhoods exist at multiple scales and
in multiple ways.
• We use two scales
– Consistent Areas Through Time (CATTs) with
503 people on average
– Output Area (OAs) with 119 people on average.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Neighbourhood characteristics
• Tenure mix:
– Proportion of social renting in an area grouped into 5
categories: 0-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-100%.
• Deprivation:
– Carstairs index for 1991 data. Includes:
•
•
•
•
Access to car
Overcrowding
Social Class IV (Dustman) and V (Labourer)
Male unemployment.
– Created Quintiles.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Analysis 1
Probability that those who are
unemployed in 1991 have a
job in 2001
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
Coeff
Neighbourhood level variables
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1
(Least))
Urban-rural classification 1991 (reference =
remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Individual and Household level variables
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not work)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Change in Household Type (reference =
couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Change in presence of children (reference =
children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
PLL
Wald
Obs
-0.372
-0.545
-0.606
-1.011
s.e
0.136
0.143
0.132
0.126
sig
***
***
***
***
2
3
4
5
1.834 0.102 ***
-2008.982
70.71(4)
3639
Coeff
s.e
sig
Coeff
s.e
sig
2001 employed
Coeff
s.e
sig
Coeff
s.e
sig
Coeff
s.e
sig
-0.205
-0.189
-0.110
-0.451
0.152
0.171
0.171
0.179 ***
-0.242
-0.247
-0.181
-0.520
0.155
0.173
0.176
0.181 ***
-0.254
-0.238
-0.141
-0.486
0.162
0.181
0.183
0.189 ***
-0.100
0.020
0.181
-0.079
0.169
0.196
0.200
0.211
-0.179
-0.016
0.056
-0.173
-0.353
-0.494
-0.813
-0.900
0.217
0.223 **
0.226 ***
0.233 ***
-0.317
-0.444
-0.728
-0.804
0.218
0.224 **
0.229 ***
0.239 ***
-0.159
-0.265
-0.604
-0.666
0.225
0.231
0.233 ***
0.244 ***
-0.058
-0.175
-0.485
-0.544
0.228
0.234
0.237 **
0.247 **
0.011 0.011
-0.072 -0.072
-0.403 -0.403
-0.487 -0.487
0.505
0.556
0.321
0.297
0.261
0.231 **
0.355
0.222
0.197
0.194
0.248
0.265
0.260
0.493
0.459
0.237
0.360
0.229
0.204 ***
0.201 **
0.254
0.271
0.275
0.576
0.469
0.238
0.357
0.230
0.204 ***
0.201 ***
0.242
0.167
0.209
0.521
0.292
0.260
0.385
0.253
0.227 **
0.223
0.697
0.933
-0.252
0.318 **
0.306 ***
0.183
0.635
0.841
-0.271
0.320 **
0.309 ***
0.184
0.647
0.961
-0.345
0.314 **
0.319 ***
0.204 *
-0.732
-0.699
0.119 ***
0.168 ***
-0.576
-0.647
0.127 ***
0.183 ***
-0.014
0.845
-0.180
0.466
0.006 ***
0.202 ***
0.476
0.143 ***
-0.528
0.006
-0.803
0.394
0.292
0.142 ***
-1.151
0.254
-0.767
0.147 ***
0.259
0.105 ***
2.155 0.167 ***
-1998.707
85.94(8)
3639
1.842 0.243 ***
-1995.826
91.55(13)
3639
1.687 0.252 ***
-1886.609
96.42(16)
3639
1.845 0.250 ***
-1862.906
140.24(18)
3639
0.180
0.219
0.223
0.235
-0.465 0.130 ***
0.050 0.171
-0.042 0.149
0.058 0.112
-0.118 0.238
2.408 0.372 ***
-1608.764
396.22(33)
3639
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 unemployed
-1.500
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
OA
1991 unemployed
-1.500
-1.5
-1.500
-1.500
-1.500
-1.500
Social
Renting
1991
(reference
===0=
-0
Social
Social
Social
Social
Renting
Renting
Renting
Renting
1991
1991
1991
1991
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
00=
-20%)
-020%)
20%)
---20%)
20%)
Social
Renting
1991
(reference
20%)
20-40%
20-40%
20-40%
20-40%
20-40%
20-40%
40-60%
40-60%
40-60%
40-60%
40-60%
40-60%
60-80%
60-80%
60-80%
60-80%
60-80%
60-80%
80-100%
80-100%
80-100%
80-100%
80-100%
80-100%
Deprivation
1991
(Reference
===1=
(Least)
Deprivation
Deprivation
Deprivation
Deprivation
1991
1991
1991
1991
(Reference
(Reference
(Reference
(Reference
=
11=
(Least)
(Least)
1(Least)
(Least)
Deprivation
1991
(Reference
1
(Least)
222 22
2
333 33
3
444 44
4
555 55
5
Urban-rural
1991
(reference
===remote)
Urban-rural
Urban-rural
Urban-rural
Urban-rural
1991
1991
1991
1991
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
remote)
remote)
=remote)
remote)
Urban-rural
1991
(reference
remote)
Accessible
Rural
Areas
Accessible
Accessible
Accessible
Accessible
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Areas
Areas
Areas
Areas
Accessible
Rural
Areas
Remote
Towns
Remote
Towns
Remote
Remote
Remote
Remote
Towns
Towns
Towns
Towns
Small
Towns
Small
Small
Small
Small
Towns
Towns
Towns
Towns
Small
Towns
Urban
Areas
Urban
Urban
Urban
Urban
Areas
Areas
Areas
Areas
Urban
Areas
Cities
Cities
Cities
Cities
Cities
Cities
Qualifications
1991
(reference
===none)
Qualifications
Qualifications
Qualifications
Qualifications
1991
1991
1991
1991
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
none)
none)
=none)
none)
Qualifications
1991
(reference
=
none)
Less
than
degree
Less
Less
Less
Less
than
than
than
than
degree
degree
degree
degree
Less
than
degree
More
than
degree
More
More
More
More
than
than
than
than
degree
degree
degree
degree
More
than
degree
None
stated
None
None
None
None
stated
stated
stated
stated
None
stated
Tenure
1991
(reference
===owners)
Tenure
Tenure
Tenure
Tenure
1991
1991
1991
1991
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
owners)
=owners)
=owners)
owners)
Tenure
1991
(reference
=
owners)
Social
Renter
Social
Renter
Social
Social
Social
Social
Renter
Renter
Renter
Renter
Private
Renter
Private
Private
Private
Private
Renter
Renter
Renter
Renter
Private
Renter
Age
inin
years
(1991)
Age
Age
Age
Age
in
in
years
in
years
years
years
(1991)
(1991)
(1991)
(1991)
Age
in
years
(1991)
Female
(reference
===male)
Female
Female
Female
Female
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
male)
male)
=male)
male)
Female
(reference
=
male)
Ethnic
(reference
===non
ethnic)
Ethnic
Ethnic
Ethnic
Ethnic
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
non
non
=non
non
non
ethnic)
ethnic)
ethnic)
ethnic)
Ethnic
(reference
==
ethnic)
Partner
Works
1991
(reference
===not)
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
Works
Works
Works
Works
1991
1991
1991
1991
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
not)
not)
=not)
not)
Partner
Works
1991
(reference
=
not)
Change
in
health
(reference
===no
LLTI)
Change
in
health
(reference
=
no
LLTI)
Change
Change
Change
Change
in
in
in
health
in
health
health
health
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
no
no
=no
no
LLTI)
LLTI)
LLTI)
LLTI)
LLTI
91
&
LLTI
LLTI
LLTI
LLTI
91
91
91
91
&
&01
&
01
01
&01
01
LLTI
91
&
01
LLTI
91
LLTI
LLTI
LLTI
LLTI
91
91
91
91
LLTI
91
LLTI
01
LLTI
LLTI
LLTI
LLTI
01
01
01
01
LLTI
01
Household
(reference
===couple)
Household
(reference
=
couple)
Household
Household
Household
Household
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
couple)
=couple)
=couple)
couple)
91
&
Single
91
91
91
91
&
&01
&
01
01
&01
01
01
Single
Single
Single
Single
91
&
Single
91
Single
/ /01
Couple
91
91
91
91
Single
Single
Single
Single
/ 01
/ /01
01
01
Couple
Couple
Couple
Couple
91
Single
/01
Couple
91
Couple
/ /01
Single
91
91
91
91
Couple
Couple
Couple
Couple
/ 01
/ /01
01
01
Single
Single
Single
Single
91
Couple
/01
Single
Children
(reference
===children)
Children
(reference
=
Children
Children
Children
Children
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
=
children)
children)
=children)
children)
children)
91
/91
No
Children
91
91
91
/01
//01
01
/01
/01
01
No
No
No
No
Children
Children
Children
Children
91
No
Children
91
No
Child
/ /01
Child
91
No
Child
// /01
01
Child
91
91
91
91
No
No
No
No
Child
Child
Child
Child
/ 01
01
01
Child
Child
Child
Child
91
Child
/ /01
No
Child
91
91
91
91
Child
Child
Child
Child
/ 01
/01
/01
01
No
No
No
No
Child
Child
Child
Child
91
Child
/01
No
Child
Moved
(reference
===not
moved)
Moved
Moved
Moved
Moved
(reference
(reference
(reference
(reference
not
not
=not
not
not
moved)
moved)
moved)
moved)
Moved
(reference
==
moved)
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Constant
Constant
Constant
Constant
Constant
Constant
-1.000
-1
-1.000
-1.000
-1.000
-1.000
2001 employed
-0.500
-0.5
-0.500
-0.500
-0.500
-0.500
0.000
0
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.500
0.5
0.500
0.500
0.500
0.500
1.000
11.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Analysis 2
Probability that those who are
employed in 1991 have a
job in 2001
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
CATT
1991 employed
Coeff
Neighbourhood level variables
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least))
-0.063
-0.273
-0.642
-0.887
s.e
sig
0.069
0.071 ***
0.068 ***
0.078 ***
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural classification 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Individual and Household level variables
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not work)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Change in Household Type (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Change in presence of children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
PLL
Wald
Obs
3.699 0.043 ***
-8581
191.36(4)
59107
Coeff
s.e
sig
2001 employed
Coeff
s.e
sig
Coeff
s.e
sig
0.009
-0.072
-0.316
-0.416
0.078
0.087
0.091 ***
0.109 ***
0.036
-0.053
-0.289
-0.393
0.08
0.089
0.093 ***
0.111 ***
0.089
0.008
-0.152
-0.243
0.082
0.09
0.097
0.116 **
-0.046
-0.195
-0.334
-0.596
0.088
0.092 **
0.098 ***
0.108 ***
-0.039
-0.198
-0.365
-0.653
0.089
0.092 **
0.099 ***
0.111 ***
-0.02
-0.165
-0.346
-0.596
0.091
0.096 *
0.103 ***
0.117 ***
0.134
0.044
0.194
0.177
0.276
0.119
0.165
0.126
0.110
0.109 ***
0.111
-0.033
0.168
0.151
0.247
0.547
0.791
0.14
3.767 0.056 ***
-8559
226.71(8)
59107
3.569 0.114 ***
-8554
239.21(13)
59107
Coeff
sig
0.083 **
0.092 *
0.103
0.125
Coeff
s.e
sig
0.169
0.133
0.115
0.171
0.084 **
0.095
0.107
0.128
0.003 0.0913
-0.123 0.095
-0.303 0.103 ***
-0.538 0.117 ***
-0.003
-0.107
-0.233
-0.481
0.093
0.098
0.107 **
0.12 ***
0.124
0.168
0.13
0.114
0.113 **
0.067
-0.054
0.091
0.055
0.148
0.124
0.169
0.132
0.116
0.115
0.006
-0.102
0.039
0.014
0.139
0.128
0.171
0.135
0.119
0.119
0.095 ***
0.118 ***
0.145
0.469
0.717
-0.156
0.096 ***
0.119 ***
0.145
0.413
0.715
-0.155
0.099 ***
0.12 ***
0.151
-0.631
-0.417
0.064 ***
0.099 ***
-0.536
-0.325
0.065 ***
0.101 ***
-0.009
0.857
-0.662
0.327
0.003 ***
0.088 ***
0.241 ***
0.742
-1.02
0.328
-0.951
0.174 ***
0.288
0.075 ***
-0.825
0.099
-0.834
0.093 ***
0.159
0.059 ***
3.448 0.118 ***
8027.3
263.43(16)
59107
0.163
0.163
0.116
0.181
s.e
3.601 0.122 ***
7971.9
395.20(18)
59107
-0.235 0.069
0.016 0.095
-0.184 0.073
0.139 0.065
-0.461
0.11
3.862 0.187
7338
1057.05(33)
59107
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
***
***
**
***
***
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
CATT
1991 employed
-1.5
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least)
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Tenure 1991 (reference = owners)
Social Renter
Private Renter
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Household (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
-1
2001 employed
-0.5
0
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1
OA
1991 employed
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
-1.5
Social
Renting
1991
(reference
Social
Renting
1991
(reference
===0=
Social
Renting
1991
(reference
-20%)
20%)
Social
Renting
1991
(reference
00-0
--20%)
20%)
20-40%
20-40%
20-40%
20-40%
40-60%
40-60%
40-60%
40-60%
60-80%
60-80%
60-80%
60-80%
80-100%
80-100%
80-100%
80-100%
Deprivation
1991
(Reference
(Least)
Deprivation
(Reference
===1=
Deprivation
1991
(Reference
1
(Least)
Deprivation1991
1991
(Reference
11(Least)
(Least)
2222
3333
4444
5555
Urban-rural
1991
(reference
remote)
Urban-rural
1991
(reference
===remote)
Urban-rural
1991
(reference
remote)
Urban-rural
1991
(reference
=
remote)
Accessible
Rural
Areas
Accessible
Rural
Areas
Accessible
Rural
Areas
Accessible
Rural
Areas
Remote
Towns
Remote
Towns
Remote
Towns
Remote
Towns
Small
Towns
Small
Towns
Small
Towns
Small
Towns
Urban
Areas
Urban
Areas
Urban
Areas
Urban
Areas
Cities
Cities
Cities
Cities
Qualifications
1991
(reference
Qualifications
1991
(reference
===none)
Qualifications
1991
(reference
=none)
none)
Qualifications
1991
(reference
none)
Less
than
degree
Less
than
degree
Less
than
degree
Less
than
degree
More
than
degree
More
than
degree
More
than
degree
More
than
degree
None
stated
None
stated
None
stated
None
stated
Tenure
1991
(reference
Tenure
1991
(reference
===owners)
Tenure
1991
(reference
owners)
Tenure
1991
(reference
=owners)
owners)
Social
Renter
Social
Renter
Social
Renter
Social
Renter
Private
Renter
Private
Renter
Private
Renter
Private
Renter
Age
inin
years
(1991)
Age
inin
years
(1991)
Age
years
(1991)
Age
years
(1991)
Female
(reference
Female
(reference
===male)
Female
(reference
male)
Female
(reference
=male)
male)
Ethnic
(reference
non
ethnic)
Ethnic
(reference
===non
ethnic)
Ethnic
(reference
non
ethnic)
Ethnic
(reference
=
non
ethnic)
Partner
Works
1991
(reference
Partner
Works
1991
(reference
=
Partner
Works
1991
(reference
==not)
not)
Partner
Works
1991
(reference
=not)
not)
Change
health
(reference
no
LLTI)
Change
inin
health
(reference
===no
LLTI)
Change
inin
health
(reference
no
LLTI)
Change
health
(reference
=
no
LLTI)
LLTI
91
01
LLTI
91
&&&01
LLTI
91
01
LLTI
91
&
01
LLTI
91
LLTI
91
LLTI
91
LLTI
91
LLTI
01
LLTI
01
LLTI
01
LLTI
01
Household
(reference
couple)
Household
(reference
===couple)
Household
(reference
couple)
Household
(reference
=
couple)
91
01
Single
91
&&01
Single
91
Single
91
&01
01
Single
91
Single
01
Couple
91
Single
/ //01
Couple
91
Single
01
Couple
91
Single
/ 01
Couple
91
Couple
01
Single
91
Couple
/ //01
Single
91
Couple
01
Single
91
Couple
/ 01
Single
Children
(reference
children)
Children
(reference
===children)
Children
(reference
children)
Children
(reference
=
children)
91
01
No
Children
91
/ //01
No
Children
91
01
No
Children
91
/ 01
No
Children
91
No
Child
/
01
Child
91
No
Child
/
01
Child
91
Child
91No
NoChild
Child/ 01
/ 01
Child
91
Child
/
01
No
Child
91
Child
/
01
No
Child
91
Child
/
01
No
Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved
(reference
not
moved)
Moved
(reference
===not
moved)
Moved
(reference
not
moved)
Moved
(reference
=
not
moved)
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
Female*Moved
2001 employed
-1-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0000
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1111
Some (initial) conclusions
• The initial negative effect of a high level of
social renting on employment outcomes
disappears when controlled for neighbourhood
deprivation, individual level education and
tenure.
• What remains is a (small) positive effect of living
in a mixed tenure neighbourhood on
employment outcomes and a negative effect of
living in a deprived neighbourhood on
employment outcomes.
• The neighbourhood effects are relatively small
compared to the effect of individual & household
characteristics.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Selective mobility into neighbourhoods
•
The negative effect of living in a deprived
neighbourhood on employment outcomes might
indicate that:
1. Living in a deprived neighbourhood has a negative effect on
employment outcomes
2. Unmeasured individual characteristics correlate with both
the probability to be unemployed and the probability to live
in a deprived neighbourhood.
•
•
Using the SLS we can not model the selection
mechanism into deprived neighbourhoods before
1991.
But to test robustness of our models we ran separate
models for different age, educational, mover status,
and tenure groups (owners and social renters).
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1991 unemployed
2001 employed
Getting a job
CATT
Coeff
Neighbourhood level variables
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1
(Least))
2
3
4
5
owners
s.e
sig
OA
Coeff
social
s.e
sig
Coeff
owners
s.e
sig
social
s.e
Coeff
a
-0.074
-0.045
0.460
0.104
0.262
0.326 *
0.371 ***
0.522 ***
0.142
0.131
0.094
-0.120
0.410
0.442
0.446
0.451
0.412
0.096
0.516
-0.101
0.329
0.296
0.320
0.419
0.395
0.296
-0.020
0.269
0.249
0.251
-0.404
-0.610
-0.896
-1.242
0.339
0.378
0.388 **
0.435 ***
0.487
0.501
0.341
0.291
0.425
0.454
0.458
0.472
-0.108
-0.569
-1.160
-0.851
0.331
0.347
0.357 ***
0.400 **
0.303
0.206
0.0175
-0.206
0.552
0.549
0.556
0.556
0.429
1.147
0.458
0.368
0.365
0.701
0.886
0.455
0.498
0.529
0.392 *
0.489 *
0.361
0.338
0.340
0.136
0.828
0.432
-0.064
0.311
0.431
1.160
0.439
0.369
0.364
0.516
0.443 *
0.373
1.008
0.859
-0.317
0.579 *
0.609
0.250
0.503
0.787
-0.266
0.011
0.410 ***
0.691
0.351
-0.013
0.657
1.580
0.460
0.007
0.242
0.908
0.171
*
***
*
***
-0.388
-0.341
-0.812
-1.210
0.127
-0.718
Urban-rural classification 1991 (reference =
remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
0.065
Remote Towns
0.855
Small Towns
0.335
Urban Areas
-0.074
Cities
0.206
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
0.597
More than degree
0.773
None stated
-0.195
Individual and Household level variables
Age in years (1991)
-0.005
Female (reference = male)
1.202
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
-0.725
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not work)
0.407
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
-1.106
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
-0.982
Change in Household Type (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
-1.006
91 Single / 01 Couple
0.951
91 Couple / 01 Single
-0.766
Change in presence of children (reference =
children)
91 / 01 No Children
-1.144
91 No Child / 01 Child
-0.645
91 Child / 01 No Child
-0.630
Moved (reference = not moved)
0.188
Female*Moved
-0.534
Constant
3.137
-414.106
PLL
Wald
108.78(30)
Obs
1270
a
0-20 and 20-40% Social Renting merged because of small
0.818
0.266 ***
0.396 ***
1.137
0.206 ***
0.359 ***
0.449
0.383
0.236
0.494
0.674 ***
-
sig
0.697
0.956
0.469
0.517
0.612
0.386 *
0.475 **
0.363
0.335
0.338 *
0.508
0.446 *
0.375
0.957
0.779
-0.332
0.565 *
0.624
0.252
-0.004
1.270
-0.749
0.412
0.011
0.392 ***
0.664
0.352
-0.014
0.651
1.642
0.434
0.007
0.241
0.850
0.170
0.442
0.307
0.176 ***
-1.024
-1.005
0.786
0.266 ***
-0.419
-0.368
-0.805
0.448
0.305
0.175 ***
0.175 ***
0.286
0.129 ***
-0.935
0.694
-0.802
0.407 **
1.118
0.206 ***
-1.176
0.144
-0.725
0.178 ***
0.288
0.129 ***
-1.072
-0.595
-0.606
0.193
-0.578
2.879
-411.333
117.89(30)
1270
0.364 ***
0.454
0.382
0.236
0.479
0.668 ***
-0.319
0.158
0.019
-0.007
0.198
0.993
0.154 **
0.202
0.170
0.133
0.287
0.647
-0.311
0.153 **
0.171
0.195
0.020
0.172
-0.050
0.131
0.214
0.287
0.691
0.554
-1053.398
199.07(31)
1991
number of cases at the Ouput Area level
-
**
***
*
***
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1991
1991 unemployed
CATT
2001 employed
OWNERS
Coeff
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1
(Least))
2
3
4
5
OA
s.e
sig
s.e
sig
0.262
0.326 *
0.371 ***
0.522 ***
0.142
0.131
0.094
-0.120
0.410
0.442
0.446
0.451
-0.404
-0.610
-0.896
-1.242
0.339
0.378
0.388 **
0.435 ***
0.487
0.501
0.341
0.291
0.425
0.454
0.458
0.472
Coeff
2
3
4
5
Coeff
-0.074
-0.045
0.460
0.104
OWNERS
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1
(Least))
SOCIAL
s.e
sig
SOCIAL
Coeff
s.e
sig
a
0.412
0.096
0.516
-0.101
0.329
0.296
0.320
0.419
0.395
0.296
-0.020
0.269
0.249
0.251
-0.108
-0.569
-1.160
-0.851
0.331
0.347
0.357 ***
0.400 **
0.303
0.206
0.0175
-0.206
0.552
0.549
0.556
0.556
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1991 employed
2001 employed
Keeping Employment
CATT
Coeff
Neighbourhood level variables
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1 (Least))
0.174
0.237
0.084
0.306
2
3
4
5
Urban-rural classification 1991 (reference = remote)
Accessible Rural Areas
Remote Towns
Small Towns
Urban Areas
Cities
Qualifications 1991 (reference = none)
Less than degree
More than degree
None stated
Individual and Household level variables
Age in years (1991)
Female (reference = male)
Ethnic (reference = non ethnic)
Partner Works 1991 (reference = not work)
Change in health (reference = no LLTI)
LLTI 91 & 01
LLTI 91
LLTI 01
Change in Household Type (reference = couple)
91 & 01 Single
91 Single / 01 Couple
91 Couple / 01 Single
Change in presence of children (reference = children)
91 / 01 No Children
91 No Child / 01 Child
91 Child / 01 No Child
Moved (reference = not moved)
Female*Moved
Constant
PLL
Wald
Obs
owners
s.e
sig
OA
Coeff
social
s.e
sig
Coeff
owners
s.e
sig
0.103 *
0.121 *
0.143
0.246
0.104
-0.101
-0.031
-0.037
0.23
0.235
0.237
0.251
0.123
-0.134
-0.039
-0.034
0.119
0.112
0.129
0.199
-0.037
-0.202
-0.318
-0.478
0.108
0.118 *
0.135 ***
0.169 ***
0.172
0.274
0.171
-0.127
0.274
0.274
0.279
0.292
0.082
-0.204
-0.147
-0.429
0.095
0.102 **
0.125
0.16 ***
0.008
-0.146
-0.039
-0.001
0.128
0.18
0.261
0.184
0.168
0.167
0.077
0.018
0.235
0.103
0.222
0.244
0.272
0.248
0.214
0.220
0.049
-0.093
0.012
0.049
0.129
0.181
0.261
0.187
0.169
0.168
0.403
0.768
0.18
0.116 ***
0.139 ***
0.243
0.517
0.221
-0.358
0.264 *
0.365
0.229
-0.01
0.664
-0.873
0.257
0.004
0.114
0.263
0.101
***
***
***
***
-0.008
1.204
-0.136
0.501
0.005
0.147 ***
0.744
0.121 ***
-1.108
-0.419
-0.992
0.244 ***
0.313
0.101 ***
-1.02
1.584
0.946
-0.497
0.156
-0.777
0.151 ***
0.23
0.083 ***
-0.437
-0.135
-0.376
0.127
-0.418
4.161
4258.766
461.59(31)
49407
0.097
0.129
0.102
0.089
0.146
0.256
***
***
***
***
0.378
0.739
0.182
Coeff
0.364
0.347
0.329
0.181
-0.488
-0.712
-0.735
-0.966
0.036
0.039
0.227
0.076
0.205
social
s.e
sig
0.289
0.265
0.259
0.261
0.471
0.459
0.458
0.464 **
0.244
0.279
0.249
0.221
0.224
0.113 ***
0.139 ***
0.242
0.489
0.21
-0.372
0.265 *
0.364
0.227
-0.010
0.675
-0.891
0.250
0.004
0.115
0.266
0.102
***
***
***
***
-0.088
1.208
-0.091
0.488
0.005 ***
0.149 ***
0.765
0.12 ***
0.262 ***
0.715 **
0.119 ***
-1.115
-0.444
-0.988
0.245 ***
0.312
0.098 ***
-1.008
1.610
-0.937
0.262 ***
0.714 **
0.117 ***
-0.994
-0.099
-0.892
0.141 ***
0.252
0.094 ***
-0.505
0.14
-0.775
0.151 ***
0.229
0.082 ***
-0.976
-0.091
-0.900
0.141 ***
0.251
0.092 ***
-0.041
0.153
-0.003
0.229
-0.552
2.656
2543.481
417.80(31)
15680
0.113
0.157
0.117
0.103 **
0.182 ***
0.378 ***
-0.431
-0.132
-0.368
0.124
-0.424
4.177
4258.124
457.10(31)
49407
-0.051
0.148
-0.003
0.254
-0.546
3.261
2540.754
376.47(31)
15680
0.112
0.154
0.116
0.102 ***
0.184 ***
0.52 ***
0.099
0.132
0.104
0.091
0.143
0.258
***
***
***
***
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
1991 employed
CATT
2001 employed
OWNERS
Coeff
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1
(Least))
s.e
0.174
0.237
0.084
0.306
2
3
4
5
OA
-0.037
-0.202
-0.318
-0.478
sig
Social Renting 1991 (reference = 0 - 20%)
20-40%
40-60%
60-80%
80-100%
Carstairs Deprivation 1991 (Reference = 1
(Least))
2
3
4
5
Coeff
s.e
sig
0.103 *
0.121 *
0.143
0.246
0.104
-0.101
-0.031
-0.037
0.23
0.235
0.237
0.251
0.108
0.118 *
0.135 ***
0.169 ***
0.172
0.274
0.171
-0.127
0.274
0.274
0.279
0.292
OWNERS
Coeff
SOCIAL
s.e
sig
0.123
-0.134
-0.039
-0.034
0.119
0.112
0.129
0.199
0.082
-0.204
-0.147
-0.429
0.095
0.102 **
0.125
0.16 ***
SOCIAL
Coeff
0.364
0.347
0.329
0.181
-0.488
-0.712
-0.735
-0.966
s.e
sig
0.289
0.265
0.259
0.261
0.471
0.459
0.458
0.464 **
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Selective mobility of owners into
deprived neighbourhoods
• The tenure split models only show
neighbourhood effects for owners and not for
renters.
• Does this mean that neighbourhood effects only
exist for owners?
• NO… it is more likely that those owners most at
risk of unemployment in 1991 selected
themselves into deprived neighbourhoods.
• Such a selection mechanism did not operate for
social renters as most were (randomly) allocated
a dwelling (and neighbourhood) in 1991
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Implications for policy 1
• There is no evidence of an independent effect of
neighbourhood characteristics on labour market
outcomes.
• Poor people live in poor neighbourhoods
because living in affluent ones costs too much…
but living in a poor neighbourhood does NOT
make poor people significantly poorer.
• This does not take away the problem of
concentrated poverty in deprived
neighbourhoods.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Implications for policy 2
“Trying to create mixed neighbourhoods costs
substantial resources that could be used directly to
relieve poverty.”
“There is a danger that trying to create mixed
neighbourhoods diverts efforts away from tackling
the underlying causes of poverty and social
exclusion, lulling us into a comforting but false
belief that we are doing something positive.” (Paul
Cheshire, JRF, 2007)
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Future research…
• Further investigate transitions instead of
states.
• Need to model selection mechanisms into
neighbourhoods.
• Need for longitudinal data to fill the 10year gap between the 1991 and 2001
census.
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the support of the SLS team
at the LSCS and in particular the support of Dr Zhiqiang
Feng
The SLS and the LSCS are funded by the:
Scottish Government
Scottish Funding Council (SFC)
Chief Scientist Office (CSO)
General Register Office for Scotland (GROS)
Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)
Centre for Housing Research, University of St Andrews