Future trends in soil cadmium concentration under current cadmium fluxes to European agricultural soils Erik Smolders and Laetitia Six Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium Mineral P fertilisers contain traces of Cd derived from rock P with different Cd:P ratios Nziguheba and Smolders, 2008 Where the story begins... Nauru Soil Cd increases with cumulative application of P-fertilisers in experimental plots in Australia. The HCl soluble soil Cd increases from 0.03 to 0.06 mg kg-1 soil (Williams & David, 1974). Archived soil samples illustrate rising soil Cd concentrations. Sources: soil Cd in Broadbalk, Rothamsted (1846 -1980) Jones et al., 1987 Natural stock of Cd in topsoil: 100-1000 g Cd/ha Annual Cd mass balances in European agricultural topsoils in g Cd/ha/year Rothamsted UK Hutton and Symon, 1986 1846-1980 Input Moolenaar and Lexmond, 1998 8 4 P-fertiliser 3 2 Atm. dep. 4 1 Other 1 Output n.d. 2 Crop offtake 0.6 Leaching 1.6 Net balance 2-5 (measured) <8 2 2003: proposal for a Cd limit in EU mineral fertilisers based on mass balance calculations Predicted change in soil Cd in European agricultural soil after 100 years application of inorganic P fertilizers at different Cd levels. Means (● ) and 10th -90th percentile of different simulations Calculations in the CSTEE report (2002) a, right side, updated 2013 Measured deposition: factor 4 decrease over about 20 years Country 1985-2002 EU-15+1 1.4 (1.1) 2010 0.4 3 EU-27+1 0.35 (0.21) 0.2 Comments Mean & standard deviation of measured deposition in EU 1985-2002 (n= 44 )) Deposition estimated from emissions (EU 2007) 3 is worst case scenario (CSTEE 2002), Mean & standard deviation of measured deposition in EU in 2010 (n= 44 )) Deposition estimated from emissions Wet-only deposition collector approved by EMEP P-fertilizer consumption in EU: factor 1.4 decrease over last 15 years 9000 8000 6000 5000 3 10 tonnes P2O5 7000 4000 3000 2000 1000 1980 1985 1990 1995 year 2000 2005 2010 Soil acidity (pH) is main driver for the Cd leaching OH OCd+ OH O O Ca OH + 4Cd2+ OCd+ O O Cd + 3H+ +Ca2+ OCd+ More H+ (lower pH): reaction to the left=Cd more soluble Solid:liquid distribution of Cd in soil expressed in KD=Cdsoil/Cd soil solution (concentration ratio) Pore water KD values of Cd in 151 European soils Degryse et al. 2009 Predicted change in soil Cd over 100 years in 540 potential European scenarios: soil pH is the main driver Average scenario: 15% depletion Six and Smolders, 2014 Key changes between the 2002 assessment and current assessment 2002 2012 factor change Input Atmospheric deposition (g/ha/y) Fertiliser use (kg P2O5/ha/y) Lime/manure/sludge (g Cd/ha/y) 1.5 (0-3) 1.6 0 0.35 0.80 0.15 4-fold lower 2-fold lower marginal increase Output Average soil pH 6.5 5.8 KD model two models Change in soil Cd in 100y at average fertiliser Cd slight accumulation 2.3-fold increase Cd output new model prediction of new in between that of two earlier models 15%depletion Trends of wheat grain Cd in Sweden: from accumulation to depletion Kirchmann et al. 2009 Conclusion • Cd input to European soils has decreased due to lower emissions and lower mineral P use • Cd output from soil may be higher than initially estimated: average soil pH (CaCl2 0.01M) is 5.8 in arable soils • Burden of fertiliser on foodchain Cd has reduced but political pressure on setting strict limits remains
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