WHO’S GETTING
READY FOR ZERO?
A report on the state of play of zero carbon modelling
ZERO
REPORT AUTHORS
CARBON
BRITA N
Paul Allen
Philip James
Project Coordinator
Zero Carbon Britain:
[email protected]
Researcher
Zero Carbon Britain:
[email protected]
Isabel Bottoms
Farhana Yamin
Researcher and Policy
Engagement, Track 0:
[email protected]
Founder and CEO, Track 0
Associate Fellow, Chatham House:
[email protected]
2
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
ENDORSEMENTS
Having worked with many governments, and consulted States to write ACT 2015 there is one
question that unites them all: how can we reduce our emissions and maintain development? In
answering this, civil society and academia can directly contribute to the biggest question of our time,
and so we must share best practices, plans, solutions and policies. I welcome the work of Track 0
and CAT in Who’s Getting Ready for Zero?, it will be a cornerstone as we move forward with the Zero
Practitioners Network together.
Jennifer Morgan, Global Director, Climate Program at the World Resources Institute
‘Who is getting ready for zero?’. The right answer should be ‘everybody’, even if that is not the
case yet. Human prosperity depends on many things, but above all, environmental and climatic
conditions. Building a decarbonised future is a great investment rooted in good economics. There is
not much time left but there is sufficient knowledge to understand that the attempt is worthy, this
report illustrates who is doing what and how they expect to succeed. Defining and implementing
decarbonisation pathways is a challenging learning process that involves all of us. That is part of
the goal: being proud of our climate action, learning from each other, building trust among ourselves
as well as building our capacity to do it while ensuring the socio and economic priorities for each
community are met. This is exactly what the authors of this report bring us today.
Teresa Ribera, Director IDDRI
Track 0 and CAT’s report is extremely important and timely. For developing countries, where our
programme MAPS focuses, the challenge is how to close their large development deficits with
constrained carbon. For them the next 15 years or so is about carbon stabilisation and decoupling
development from emissions. This transition will already be a huge task. Then from the second
quarter of this century they will need to start the push towards zero carbon. How they achieve
this will be a matter of immense importance for the planet. Indeed closing the poverty gap whilst
achieving zero carbon is our critical long term challenge. The Who’s Getting Ready for Zero? report
starts the discussion on how this is to be achieved.
Stef Raubenheimer, Director MAPS programme
While the phrase ‘zero emissions’ might have been viewed as radical only a few years ago, it is now
becoming mainstream with many world leaders recognising that to stabilise our Earth’s climate it
is necessary to move to zero emissions and beyond. This is necessary for human society as we
know it, but also for all life forms on our fragile planet. The transition to beyond zero emissions is
technically feasible with existing technologies and processes - there is no reason to wait and no
excuse for delay. It is also cost-effective with the costs of inaction far outweighing the costs of
action. I commend this report to policy makers, scientists, and the general public. It shows the vast
amount of work already underway in developing the road to zero emissions that we will inevitably
have to follow, sooner rather than later.
Dr Stephen Bygrave, CEO Beyond Zero Emissions, Adjunct Professor University of New South Wales
The report Who’s Getting Ready for Zero? demonstrates the wealth of information and scenarios
on what is necessary for a zero carbon world. It is a sound basis for action, for developed and
developing countries, cities and regions alike. The science tells us we must get to zero and this
report highlights the blueprints already out there, ready to kickstart the global transformation to zero.
Dr. Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
3
CONTENTS
Endorsements
2
Contents
3
Acknowledgements
4
Who we are
5
Executive Summary
6
Introducing Zero Emissions
10
Talking Zero Emissions: Definitions, Scope and Methodology
12
Findings from the Case Studies
16
Benefits Beyond Emissions
19
Next Steps
22
Annex 1: Who’s Getting Ready for Zero: Case Studies
24
Global:
25
100% Renewable Energy by 2050
25
The Three Propositions for a Global Agreement
26
Regional:
27
A Nordic Energy Grid: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
27
The North East Asian Super Grid: China, Korea & Japan
28
EU Energy Roadmap 2050
29
National:
30
Australia
31
Bhutan
32
Chile
33
Costa Rica
34
Denmark
35
Denmark
36
Ethiopia
37
Germany
38
Japan
39
Morocco
40
New Zealand
41
Norway
42
Sweden
43
Sweden
44
UK
45
USA
46
USA
47
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)
48
Cities:
49
Berlin, Germany
49
Copenhagen, Denmark
50
Rome, Italy
51
Annex 2: Full List of Scenarios
52
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WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This report has been written by the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT) and Track 0 to support
all those working around the world to phase out harmful emissions of greenhouse gases and
phase in 100% clean energy solutions. Numerous organisations and individuals have contributed
to the research and modelling featured in this report. The authors wish to thank all those who have
encouraged us to map out who’s doing what on low and zero emissions modelling. We recognise that
this report is the first such mapping and may well be incomplete, and we call on all those working on
zero emission scenarios to contact the authors with details of projects and programmes, planned or
implemented, that would make the next version of this report more comprehensive.
Our special thanks go to all those who have reviewed all or parts of the report and voiced their
support for its key conclusion: that we try to find ways of intensifying future collaborations among
the rapidly growing network of zero modelling practitioners. They include: Stephen Bygraves, Beyond
Zero Emissions; Gunnar Olesen, INFORSE; Steve Pye, University College London Energy Institute;
Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK; Emmanuel Guerin and Henri Waisman for the Deep Decarbonisation
Pathways Project (DDPP) and IDDRI; Stefan Raubenheimer, Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios
(MAPS); Godfrey Boyle, The Open University; Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre; Rob Mills and Kiran
Sura, CDKN; Michael Jacobs, New Climate Economy; Jennifer Morgan, World Resources Institute;
and Niklas Höhne, NewClimate Institute. Needless to say, all remaining errors and omissions remain
our responsibility.
Report designed by John Urry and proofed by Rebecca Sullivan, Tammi Dallaston, Sally Carr and Catriona Toms of CAT
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
5
WHO WE ARE
Centre for
Alternative Technology (CAT)
Track 0
http://www.cat.org.uk
@centre_alt_tech
http://www.track0.org
@ontrack0
It is now forty years since a group of engineers and activists
gathered at CAT to pioneer, develop and prove, by positive living
example, new technologies, approaches and lifestyles that would
provide practical solutions to the problems that are now worrying
the world’s scientists.
Track 0 is an independent not-for-profit, which serves as a
hub to support all those working to phase out greenhouse gas
emissions so that we can usher in a future defined by zero
poverty, zero emissions and clean energy for all.
Today, CAT Charity is concerned with the search for globally
sustainable, zero carbon technologies and ways of living. CAT
has a holistic approach to its work, integrating ideas and practice
relating to energy, land use, biodiversity, the built environment,
material use, diet, health and wellbeing.
CAT inspires, informs and enables tens of thousands of people
each year to achieve positive change in their own lives, through
‘living laboratory’ research, its visitor complex, collaborations
with eco-centres in other countries, consultancy as well as its
hands-on educational programmes: from school workshops and
short courses to the Graduate School of the Environment’s range of
postgraduate courses, held in its cutting-edge teaching facilities.
The Zero Carbon Britain project pulls together four decades of
practical experience with detailed knowledge from a wide range
of disciplines, into a single framework that can be clearly and
effectively articulated to catalyse urgent action on climate across
all sectors of society.
The core mission of Track 0 is to translate the globally agreed
2ºC limit into a practical solutions-orientated framework that can
be implemented by anyone – countries, companies, cities and
individuals. Scientists are pointing out that greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions must peak and decline to zero around mid-century.
This timeframe means bringing the biggest source of emissions,
CO2₂ from fossil fuel combustion and industry, to zero or ‘net zero’
by around 2050 if we are to have a good chance of staying well
below 2ºC, and keeping the door open to 1.5ºC, which is a safer
limit demanded by the world’s most vulnerable countries and
populations.
Track 0 is based in London but its work has a global reach,
focusing on the international climate change negotiations and
policy-relevant climate research related to the long term goal of
phasing out GHG emissions. Track 0 provides research, strategy,
policy advice, communications, convening and networking support
to governments, businesses, investors, communities and NGOs.
We also work closely with civil society, social movements and all
those within the development community working on achieving
zero poverty and zero emissions. We are not a campaigning or
political organisation.
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CARBON
BRITA N
6
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
International negotiations around the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are ramping up, and are expected
to result in a new agreement in Paris in December 2015. In 2010,
parties to the UNFCCC agreed on the need for urgent action to
hold the rise in global average temperatures well below 1.5ºC or
2ºC as a way to secure a safer climate and promote sustainable
development. Nearly 130 countries have now come forward to
support a long-term goal in the Paris Agreement, affirming their
intent to operationalise and further clarify the 2ºC limit. At the
2015 Business and Climate Summit, in Paris, business networks
representing 6.5 million companies from more than 130 countries
called on governments to collectively achieve net zero emissions
well before the end of the century. 120 investor CEOs from around
the world managing funds worth more than $12 trillion also called
on G7 finance ministers for high-level political commitment to a
long-term global emission reduction goal in the Paris Agreement to
give investors policy certainty and a clear direction of travel. These
powerful calls are a response to what our science is telling us: to
stabilise our climate system and stay below the globally agreed
limit of 2ºC with high certainty, we must rapidly move beyond fossil
fuel based energy systems and eliminate man-made emissions
of greenhouse gases (GHGs) almost entirely by mid-century. The
Paris Agreement and the mitigation commitments of Parties to the
UNFCCC must reflect this reality.
The good news is that there is a wealth of evidence demonstrating
that a phase-out of GHGs, especially from fossil fuels, can be
achieved in ways that are both socially just and economically
prosperous. This evidence comes from peer-reviewed global
modelling studies and scenarios - such as those assessed
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and
new research set out in the World Bank report, Decarbonizing
Development: Three Steps to a Zero Carbon Future and the Better
Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate Economy report by the
Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2014. It also
comes from scenarios that drill down to the national and city
levels, which are the focus of this report, because this is where
most economic and political decisions are made.
7
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
Our new report Who’s Getting Ready for Zero? maps out how
different actors at national, regional and city levels are already
modelling the elimination of GHGs on science-based timeframes
compatible with 2ºC. The report draws on results from over
100 scenarios that demonstrate how we can reach low or zero
emissions before the second half of the century with existing
technology and without harming social or economic development.
We feature 27 of these in more detail to showcase work occurring
in developed and developing countries, covering both low as well
as full decarbonisation scenarios.
Our mapping shows that low or full decarbonisation scenarios have
been undertaken for a wide range of countries, including sixteen
of the world’s largest emitters, which emit nearly 75% of the
world’s carbon emissions. Although a proportion of the Intended
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted to date do
contain a long-term objective or perspective, there are still too
many countries that have not yet been able to prepare scenarios or
strategies that align their short-term mitigation and development
goals with longer-term 2050 timeframes. Whilst Parties to the
UNFCCC agreed at COP16 in 2010 that developed countries should
create low-carbon strategies and encouraged developing countries
to undertake sustainable low-carbon development strategies, too
few countries have formally undertaken or presented such longerterm visions. If we are to take the 2ºC limit seriously, all countries
- developed and developing, large and small - should prepare
2050-orientated low and zero carbon development scenarios and
strategies. This will ensure each country’s development pathway
aligns with both the mitigating actions and the climate impact
adaptation needed to live in a near 2ºC world.
Achieving zero is about more than emissions; our report also
highlights a range of co-benefits such as a better, more stable
economic system, greater equity, increased health and well-being,
strengthened communities and improved relationships with nature.
We identify these as areas that should be further explored by future
scenarios in order to fully evaluate the wider benefits of moving to
a zero emissions future.
Our main conclusion is that scenario building is a powerful tool that
can engage stakeholders and citizens, and we recommend more
work is done to develop long-term decarbonisation strategies
and to share results within and across countries. Doing so will
increase confidence in a country’s nationally determined climate
commitments, whilst driving the powerful actions, targets,
incentives and legislation which are needed today.
We are conscious that this report is very much a first cut at
mapping out who is doing what to get to zero. Further work remains
to be done to fill in gaps and to engage more countries and citizens
in the task of envisioning and implementing a zero emissions
world. At the same time we must join together and celebrate the
exciting progress already being made in mapping the path to zero.
Governments, international organisations, academic networks,
think tanks, scientists, NGOs, business groups and youth must all
become ‘zero heroes’ to secure our planet’s future. And we must
build the practitioners’ community at a global, national and city
scale for a collective global push for a zero emissions world by
mid-century.
Our concluding recommendation is that a network to support zero
modelling practitioners be initiated to share insights and expertise
as a way to support the development of long-term scenarios and
decarbonisation strategies by all. This network could underpin
the implementation of the Paris Agreement by engaging citizens
and stakeholders to create a zero carbon, climate resilient world.
This will help us in our collective task of keeping the rise in global
temperatures below 2ºC to deliver both a stable climate and a
prosperous future for generations to come.
Key for icons in Table 1
Icon
Scenario feature
Zero emissions scenario
Low emissions scenario
Includes CO2 emissions only
Scenario includes all greenhouse gases
+
-
Scenario includes carbon offsetting
Scenario addresses a single sector
Scenario addresses multiple sectors
Governmental author
Non-governmental author
Scenario offers a vision for the future
Agreed action plan
Country also has a scenario in the Deep
Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP)
Scenario uses 50% renewable energy or more
Scenario uses 100% renewable energy
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
8
Table 1: Case studies selected from over 100 scenarios included in the report
Who
What
Scenario summary
GLOBAL SCENARIOS
WWF, Ecofys & OMA
The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
ACT 2015
The Three Propositions
+
-
REGIONAL SCENARIOS
Nordic Energy Research & IEA
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives
- Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future
Lappeenranta University of
Technology & partners
North-East Asian Super Grid:
Renewable Energy Mix and Economics
European Commission
Energy Roadmap 2050
+
-
COUNTRY SCENARIOS
Beyond Zero Emissions
Zero Carbon Australia
Royal Government of Bhutan
A national strategy and action plan for low carbon development
Mitigation Action Plans &
Scenarios (MAPS)
MAPS Chile - Mitigation options for a low carbon development
Costa Rica Climate Change
Carbon Neutral by 2021
Danish Climate Commission
& Energy Agency
The Road to a Danish Energy System Without Fossil Fuels &
2020, 2035, 2050 Scenarios for energy decarbonisation
Vedvarende Energi & INFORSE
Fast Transition to Renewable Energy by 2030
Federal Democratic
Republic of Ethiopia
The path to sustainable development - Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient
Green Economy Strategy
German Federal
Environment Agency
Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country
Greenpeace Japan
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution:
A sustainable energy outlook for Japan
World Future Council
100% Renewable Energy: Boosting Development in Morocco
University of Canterbury
A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand
Norwegian Env. Agency
Knowledge base or low-carbon transition in Norway
+
Gov. Offices of Sweden
Sweden - an emissions-neutral country by 2050 (in Swedish)
+
IVL Swedish Env. Research
Institute & WWF
Energy Scenario for Sweden 2050 Based on Renewable Energy
Technologies and Sources
Centre for Alternative
Technology
Zero Carbon Britain: Re-thinking the Future
The Solutions Project
100% Wind, Water and Sunlight Energy Plans for the 50 United States
Greenpeace International
Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable USA energy outlook
UN SDSN & IDDRI
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project
Berlin Senate
Climate-Neutral Berlin 2050
City of Copenhagen
Copenhagen 2025 Climate Plan – a Green, Smart and Carbon Neutral City
City of Rome and the Jeremy
Rifkin Group
A Third Industrial Revolution Master Plan to Transition Rome into the
World's First Post Carbon Biosphere City
+
-
-
CITIES
+
-
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
FROM DECARBONISATION CASE STUDIES
KEY CONCLUSIONS
9
1 Climate
5 Joining the dots: Integrated net zero scenarios
2Time
6​Multiple co-benefits:
action is pro-‐human development
and pro‐-fairness: Policies that eliminate GHG
emissions can go hand in hand with increasing
equity and supporting the more vulnerable
sections of communities.
up for wasteful energy use: We can
drastically reduce energy demand by re‐thinking
our urban spaces and reconfiguring lifestyles,
whilst also creating smart, efficient distributed
energy models for those who currently lack access
to energy.
3 Time
up for fossil fuels – the technologies
to achieve zero emissions by mid-century
already exist: There is no longer any need to
rely on fossil fuels; we can capture enough of
the energy that is naturally available to us using
technologies available today at minimal extra cost.
covering energy, transport, built environment,
industry, agriculture and land use ensure that all
emissions are fully accounted for and land use
changes are considered.
In addition to the benefits
of stabilising our climate, pursuing the goal of zero
emissions offers a huge opportunity to achieve
a wide range of co-‐benefits, from stronger and
more stable economics, to increased access to
energy without air pollution and productive and
biodiverse forests and land use.
7 Everyone must be ambitious – we must all pull
together: We need new collaborative knowledge
platforms that work across borders and across
disciplines, as well as learning across scales.
4 If we manage the transition well, we can reach
zero emissions without disruption to industry
or consumers: ​Technologies to balance supply
and demand from renewables already exist and
are part of a rapidly growing mix of technologies
and tools driving the clean energy revolution.
NEXT STEPS:
A ZERO PRACTITIONERS NETWORK
This report marks the start of an important journey towards the creation of a Zero Practitioners Network
bringing together developers and users of zero emissions and deep decarbonisation scenarios. The key
conclusion of this report is that we have the evidence, the technology and the tools, but to make progress
towards zero emissions we urgently need to connect across borders – geographic, professional and political.
The Zero Practitioners Network is our contribution to convening the experts and policy-makers to drive this
vital transition.
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CARBON
BRITA N
10
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
INTRODUCING
ZERO EMISSIONS
International negotiations around the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are expected to result in a new
agreement in Paris in December 2015 that will prompt pre-2020
action and enshrine a regime that applies to all parties from 2020
onwards.
All 195 Parties to the UNFCCC have affirmed that science must
inform the terms of the new agreement and have also stressed
the need to keep global temperatures below the 2ºC limit, with a
further agreement to review whether this limit should be 1.5ºC. On
its own, the globally agreed limit of 2ºC temperature rise does not
tell us how and when to get there because it does not say what
must happen to global emissions as a result. A commitment to the
2ºC limit is much stronger if it is translated into a more politically
actionable framework.
The scientific community has responded and provided an
actionable framework that could be taken forward by parties in the
Paris Agreement and implemented by a wide variety of non-state
actors as well. As set out in Box 1, scientists internationally agree
that to stabilise our climate system and stay below the globally
agreed limit of 2ºC, we must rapidly move beyond fossil fuels
and eliminate anthropogenic emissions of GHGs by around midcentury. This framework provides the basis of a unifying goal that
is simple to understand, not overly prescriptive and complements
the short term actions and targets likely to be included as part of
the Paris Agreement.
All parties to the UNFCCC have already accepted the scientific
‘mission’ of limiting temperature rise to 2ºC. Around 130 countries
have now come forward to support the inclusion of a long-term
mitigation goal (LTG-M) in the Paris Agreement as a concrete way
to affirm their intent to stay below the 2ºC limit. Many countries
have domestic 2050 targets and zero emissions goals that would
be supported by an international zero emissions LTG-M. Many
more parties welcome a science-based actionable framework
that acts as a compass and provides a common direction of travel
to inform the formulation and implementation of every country’s
Intended Nationally Determined Commitments (INDCs), whilst
also acting as a yardstick for the required financial, technological
and capacity building elements. Others see the formulation of
an LTG-M with a zero emissions goal, a clear target date (e.g.
2050), and a trajectory which prioritises fossil fuel phase-out
first and negative processes only for the final residual emissions,
as an important tool for driving and monitoring progress towards
effective decarbonisation.
Support for translating the 2ºC limit into an LTG-M, and aligning this
with ambitious pre-2020 actions and INDCs, is also widespread
among major business networks and investors. At the Business &
Climate Summit held on May 20-21st in Paris, business networks
representing 6.5 million companies in 130 different countries
called on governments to collectively achieve net zero emissions
well before the end of the century. Likewise, CEOs from 120
companies managing funds worth more than $12 trillion wrote
to G7 finance ministers stating a long term emissions reduction
goal would provide policy certainty and thus aid the switch over of
funding to clean energy solutions.
The G7 - which includes seven of the world’s largest economies
- announced its commitment to the decarbonisation of the global
economy over the course of the century and a global emissions
reduction target of 40 to 70% by 2050.
The Lancet’s 2015 Commission on Health and Climate Change
also comes to the conclusion that getting to net zero emissions
is essential for tackling climate change and that an LTG-M of net
zero could act as a ‘common task’ for multiple actors to ensure the
highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide.
But can getting to zero be achieved in practice? Who is already
trying to get to zero and what are they finding in terms of costs,
benefits and social implications of transformative actions? Our
report sets out to open new conversations which may begin to
provide answers to these critical questions.
The good news is we have uncovered a wealth of evidence
demonstrating that a phase-out of GHGs, especially from
fossil fuels, can be achieved in ways that are both socially just
and economically prosperous. This evidence comes from peerreviewed global modeling studies and scenarios such as those
assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) and new research such as that set out in the World Bank
report, Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero Carbon
Future and Better Growth, Better Climate: The New Climate
Economy report by the Global Commission on the Economy and
Climate, 2014. It also comes from a wide variety of case studies
and scenarios that drill down to the national and city level, which
form the core focus of our report.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
11
Our mapping shows that deep or full decarbonisation
scenarios have been undertaken for a wide range of countries,
including sixteen of the world’s largest emitters, emitting
nearly 75% of the world’s carbon emissions. There are still
too many countries, however, that have not been able to prepare
scenarios or strategies that align their short-term mitigation and
development goals with longer-term 2050 emissions reduction
targets and timeframes. If we are to take the 2ºC limit seriously,
all countries, developed and developing, large and small, should
prepare 2050-orientated low and zero carbon development
scenarios and strategies to ensure their development pathways
align with mitigation and adaptation actions needed to live in a near
2ºC world. Whilst Parties to the UNFCCC agreed at COP16 in 2010
that developed countries should create low-carbon strategies and
encouraged developing countries to undertake sustainable lowcarbon development strategies, too few countries have formally
undertaken or presented such longer-term visions.
We are conscious that this report is very much a first cut at
mapping out who is doing what to get to zero. Further work
remains to be done to fill in gaps and to engage more countries
and citizens in the task of imagining and implementing a zeroemissions world. At the same time we must join together and
celebrate the exciting progress already being made to get to zero.
Governments, international organisations, academic networks,
think tanks, scientists, NGOs, business and youth groups must
all become ‘zero heroes’ to secure our planet’s future. All of us
need to become zero emissions active and build the practitioners
community at a global, national and city scale for a collective
global push for a zero emissions world by mid-century.
THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS
FOR GOING TO ZERO
BOX 1
The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) found that only one scenario, RCP 2.6, offers a 66% (likely)
chance of staying within 2ºC. It requires:
•
All GHG emissions from fossil fuels are reduced by 40 - 70% by 2050 (using 2010 baseline);
•
C02 emissions are net zero by 2075 and net negative thereafter;
•
All GHG emissions are zero by 2100.
In order to stay within the 2°C, ‘global carbon neutrality will need to be achieved sometime between
2055 and 2070’ (2014 UNEP Gap Report). This same report also states that ‘total global greenhouse
gas emissions need to shrink to net zero some time between 2080 and 2100’.
Independent scientific teams from the Climate Action Tracker, the Potsdam Institute, Ecofys and
Climate Analytics have concluded that:
•
for a high probability, i.e. 85% chance or more of achieving 2ºC, and 50% of achieving 1.5ºC, CO2
emissions from fossil fuels combustion must be completely phased out between 2045 and 2065;
•
all global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must peak in 2020 and be phased out to zero between
2060 and 2080, becoming net negative thereafter.
The Earth Statement of April 2015, signed by some of the world’s most eminent scientists – including
Professor Johan Rockström, Guy Brasseur, Ottmar Edenhofer, Sir Brian Hoskins, Pavel Kabat, Mario
J.Molina, Jennifer Morgan, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Carlos Nobre, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Jeffrey
Sachs, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Peter Schlosser, Youba Sokona, Leena Srivastava, Lord Nicholas
Stern and Guanhua Xu - states:
The key to success is deep decarbonisation by mid-century. Our studies
“show
that this can be accomplished, at modest cost, and with a significant
improvement in the quality of life. Success will require a shared global vision,
strong national commitments, and global cooperation on technology pathways.
”
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
12
TALKING ZERO EMISSIONS
DEFINITIONS, SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
Parties, business leaders and cities are using a wide
range of vocabularies to talk about getting to zero.
This is also the case for the diverse collection of case
studies and scenarios we examined from across the
globe, many of which have arisen independently
outside the confines of the IPCC and the UNFCCC
negotiating process. As such there has been
potential for varying definitions to arise around the
same terminology. To offer some clarity about what
we mean by ‘net zero’ and related terms such as
decarbonisation and climate or carbon neutrality, we
have highlighted the main terms used and offer the
definitions below.
DEFINITIONS
Net zero and zero net emissions
We define net zero greenhouse gas emissions as follows: the
global emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled under the
Montreal Protocol to be reduced to the maximum extent possible.
Only in the case where no alternatives to the emitting technologies
are available and the use of these technologies is regarded as
essential can the resulting small emissions be offset by removal
of these gases from the atmosphere in a transparent, sustainable
and equitable way.
Apart from the global level, the term net zero can also be used to
indicate zero total emissions within the confines of the sphere or
sector to which it is applied (e.g. a net zero electricity system, a net
zero building, etc.). On its own, net zero does not prescribe the use
of any particular technology or method for reducing, absorbing or
capturing emissions. It also does not specify a timeline for reaching
zero emissions, nor the scope of sectoral emissions to be covered.
The scenarios we have examined demonstrate we literally cannot
reach the necessary zero emissions without some net negative
processes to compensate for unavoidable residual emissions from
agriculture, land-use and industrial processes. Therefore, any
zero emissions scenario is (in strict terms) a net zero scenario.
Definitions of net zero should require that any GHG-negative
processes used, either within a country or between countries, must
be well regulated and approved as both sustainable and equitable.
The key criteria for sustainability is that ‘all emissions that can
go to zero, must go to zero’ (e.g. switching to a 100% renewable
energy system). We must prevent any temptation to try to ‘balance
out’ the continued burning of fossil fuels - as it is an unnecessary
and highly wasteful use of our precious and limited GHG-negative
natural sinks. For example, CAT’s Zero Carbon Britain scenario
shows that ‘net zero’ can be achieved within the UK by using 100%
renewable generation backed by natural sequestration such as
peat-land restoration and reforestation.
Even with a zero emissions target, the science still requires a clearly
defined trajectory that takes into account total cumulative emissions
released against a specific time frame to determine our chances
of avoiding dangerous, irreversible climate change. As such, a zero
emissions target by mid-century must be supported by an early
peaking date, the phase-out of emissions from fossil fuels first,
then decarbonisation of every sector to near zero before negative
emissions are used to finally reach net zero. The term ‘net zero’, as
set out by the IPCC, requires this trajectory to be adhered to.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
13
We must also recognise there is another complexity in defining a
‘net zero GHG emissions’ target. That is, can we offset one type of
GHG emission, for example methane, with reductions in another
GHG such as CO2₂? The accounting for this can be done using Global
Warming Potentials (GWPs) to equate one GHG to another. However,
the correct value of these GWPs is debated and has changed over
time - the IPCC’s GWP for methane has changed from x25 to x34
in its latest report.
Therefore it is essential to the accurate use of the term ‘net zero’,
to specify the timeline and to define the gases/sectoral coverage in
terms of CO2₂, CO2₂e or GHGs. These are defined as follows:
CO2₂: Carbon dioxide.
CO2₂e: Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas and it
is useful to express a carbon footprint consisting of lots of
different GHGs as a single comparable unit: CO₂2 equivalent
(CO2₂e). For example in 2013, the UK released 467 million
tonnes of CO2₂. If you include its emissions of methane, nitrous
oxide and other GHGs, the country’s total emissions work out
at 568 million tonnes of CO2₂e.
GHGs: Although CO2₂ is the most abundant, other greenhouse
gases (GHGs) include methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), and
sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
In order to be as accurate as possible, case studies using net zero
are specified as either CO2₂, CO2₂e or GHGs on a case by case basis.
Carbon neutrality and climate neutrality
Carbon neutrality means achieving net zero CO2 by balancing any
carbon released with an equivalent amount captured through net
negative processes, either locally or elsewhere. It includes carbon
dioxide released by processes associated with transportation,
energy production, land use and industrial processes. To achieve
zero emissions in terms of the atmosphere, carbon neutrality can
include other GHGs measured in terms of their CO2 equivalence.
The inclusion of all gases and sectors is often referred to as climate
neutrality as this clearly signals that the focus in not just on carbon/
C02 but on all gases and what effect they have on the atmosphere
in net terms.
Decarbonisation
‘De’ denotes ‘the removal of’ therefore ‘decarbonisation’ is here
referred to as the removal of carbon from the sphere being referred
to, e.g. the decarbonisation of the energy sector. Once again
technologies or methods of removal (carbon capture and storage or
use of offsets) are not implied in this term - these can be defined
in more detail on a case by case basis.
Viable net zero trajectory
The sum of all GHGs emitted whilst completing a path to net zero
is within an internationally agreed emissions budget which offers
a ‘high’ probability pathway of no more than 2ºC temperature rise
from pre-industrial levels.
14
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
This report draws on results from over 100 research projects and
programmes. We feature 27 of these in more detail to showcase
work occurring in developed and developing countries, covering
both low as well as full decarbonisation scenarios. Our mapping
shows that low or full decarbonisation scenarios have been
undertaken for a wide range of countries, including 16 of the
world’s largest emitters, who collectively emit nearly 75% of the
world’s carbon emissions.
To select the case studies, the research team compiled a
comprehensive list of all available rapid decarbonisation scenarios
and models, drawing on existing links and networks built up
through practical collaboration with a broad spectrum of deep
decarbonisation modellers over many years. To be both thorough
and inclusive we have made a selection to provide examples from
developed and developing countries and included work at all
relevant levels: global, regional, national and city levels.
There is a lot of literature on energy modelling and scenarios
(see Box 2). This report cannot describe all of this work. We did
not include the long-standing modelling and forecasting work of
international organisations such as the International Renewable
Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency, the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Organisation
of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the World Energy Council,
where they have focussed on energy forecasts and global
mitigation scenarios that do not operationalize country level
emissions reduction pathways. Neither have we included the work
of the energy industry in modelling decarbonisation scenarios.
From our analysis of the full list of scenarios, we then selected
case studies that demonstrate a geographic spread and a variety
of methodologies, targets and authors (including government
departments and councils, research and academic organisations,
NGOs, and low carbon initiatives). The different focuses of each
case study are summarised using a series of icons (see Table 1 of
the Executive Summary).
We also offer a set of key conclusions to highlight the messages
that can be drawn from this body of work. These include some
important next steps to consider, drawn from our overview of
the work that is already out there, and building on the authors’
experience in this sector over the last thirty years. In an effort
to assist future research and momentum building, we include
an overview of the additional benefits and intersections beyond
the direct impacts of achieving the emissions reduction targets.
Finally we include the complete list of all work examined to offer
a full overview of all those already working in this field. The entire
collection of models and scenarios can be accessed in Annex 2 at
the end of this report.
We recognise that this is an incomplete study, and there will be
many more scenarios being generated than those of which we are
currently aware. We have collaborated to provide this report within
our resource constraints. We invite others to help us build a more
comprehensive listing for future results.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
15
ENERGY MODELLING
FOR ZERO
BOX 2
Energy is an important driver for the social and economic development of any human
living system, and therefore needs to be well understood. Energy systems are dynamic,
constantly changing, and as such require active assessment over a wide range of sectors
such as the built environment, transport, generation, load management, environmental
impacts, macro and micro economics, land use, agricultural processes and distribution
infrastructure.
Modelling energy systems is a well-accepted means for exploring how such systems
can be developed to meet future challenges. Governments, industry and a range of other
key players, from national distribution grids to public bodies and academic institutions,
use integrated models to assess how different mixes of technologies can match the
supply and demand for energy, whilst also quantifying the impacts on natural systems.
Such models often focus on economics as their main driver, with a common aim of
minimising the energy system’s installation and operational costs. This means that
scenarios from these models tend to be based on the current framing by business and
politics. For example, global models will find the least overall cost but this might mean
that neither the producer nor the consumer of energy actually pays for all of the real
costs associated with their actions – they are externalised.
During recent decades several new concepts have begun to influence the ways in which
energy models should be developed. New evidence from climate science demands a new
approach, as the scale and predicted impact of these externalised costs can no longer be
ignored. Mechanisms must be developed to make all externalised costs, including those
that arise in other geographic locations, in other sectors or at some future time, eligible
for inclusion as the fuels are burned. Such influences on the energy system are often not
adequately prioritised in mainstream models but are increasingly, for many of us, at the
forefront of our minds.
There is now a growing body of robust, peer-reviewed work from groups across the
globe, which seeks to offer a more inclusive approach to energy modelling. It is firmly
rooted in the reality of energy systems but gives a more appropriate priority to what
the scientific evidence of climate change demands, whilst also embodying the growing
demands for energy equity and energy democracy. This report aims to represent this
important and growing voice.
Although there are now an increasing number of rapid decarbonisation models, including
global scenarios as well as individual country studies, it is vital we recognise that there are
still some essential pieces of the picture missing. Some countries do not yet have models
exploring zero emissions futures, and therefore still lack the tools to open necessary
conversations around a sustainable energy mix, energy democracy, and development
priorities. This will be an important area to focus future action. Many current studies also
understandably focus on energy; however, integrated energy and land use scenarios are
required to explore the full implications of net zero emissions futures.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
16
FINDINGS FROM
THE CASE STUDIES
Through exploring over 100 scenarios (see Annex 2) and in selecting the case studies,
our analyses revealed some key common conclusions, which we have compiled below.
Climate action is pro-human development and pro-fairness
Research demonstrates that policies that eliminate GHG emissions
can go hand in hand with increasing equity and supporting the
more vulnerable sections of communities. Reduction of traffic
congestion (as seen in the Copenhagen 2025 Plan), lower levels
of air pollution, and health benefits arising from working in safer,
healthier urban environments can all result from reducing carbon
emissions. For example, the 100% Wind, Water and Sunlight
Energy Plans for the 50 United States (Jacobson and Delucchi)
highlight the potential reduction in the premature human mortality
rate in the U.S. due to cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease,
and complications from asthma due to air pollution.
These benefits are available to everyone but may have a
disproportionately positive impact on the poorer sections of
communities and more vulnerable citizens such as the elderly
and children. Studies for developing countries, such as Ethiopia’s
plan for climate resilience1, also show that climate action can be
combined with sustainable development and, crucially, can allow
countries to become more resilient. For example, reforestation not
only sequesters carbon but also reduces flood risks, leading to
reduced soil erosion and greater drinking water security. It is this
positive relationship between decarbonisation and development
that the World Bank has confirmed in its report Decarbonising
Development: three steps to a zero-carbon future.
Time up for wasteful energy use
Current high-energy consumer lifestyles were designed before we
understood the very serious nature of the climate challenge, and
so compel us to use far more energy than we actually require in
delivering our needs. There is an abundance of data and real-world
programmes and projects demonstrating how we can drastically
reduce energy demand. These include the use of energy efficient
technology, reconfiguring our current lifestyles, and reshaping our
urban environments and communities to become highly efficient,
whilst at the same time creating smart, efficient distributed energy
models for those who currently lack access to energy.
A range of reports, including the Germany in 2050 – a greenhouse
gas-neutral country, Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable USA
energy outlook, and The Advanced Energy [R]evolution: A
sustainable energy outlook for Japan show that energy demand
can be reduced drastically in mature economies, with primary
energy demand reductions of 40-50% possible. The WWF Energy
Report also shows that global energy demand could be reduced by
around 15% by 2050, even allowing for growth in energy demand
in developing countries.
Time up for fossil fuels – the technologies to achieve zero
emissions energy systems already exist
It is becoming increasingly clear that, when all energy costs are
included, renewable energy is becoming the cheapest option in
most parts of the world - even when compared with conventional
sources of energy. Renewable energy use has the co-benefit of
increasing access to sustainable forms of energy in developing and
least developed countries, helping to alleviate some of the most
basic forms of poverty across the world.
Although new technologies may be developed in the future that
would further help us achieve zero emissions, the case studies
included in this report (such as Beyond Zero Emissions Australia
and work by both the Danish and Swedish Governments) make
it clear that zero emissions energy systems are possible with
proven technologies available today. Other studies back this up: for
example, in 2010, the journal Energy Policy published two papers
by Jacobson and Delucchi from Stanford and California Universities
respectively, about ‘providing all global energy with wind, water,
and solar power’, showing how sufficient energy can be captured
from wind, water, sunlight and geothermal sources to power the
world. Such systems use existing technology and require only
1: http://www.uncsd2012.org/content/documents/287CRGE%20Ethiopia%20Green%20Economy_Brochure.pdf
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WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
around half a percent of the world’s land. They demonstrate that
barriers to such a transition are primarily social and political, not
technological or economic, and that the cost of energy in a zero
carbon future will be similar to the real cost of energy today.
These studies show that we can call time on the pursuit of fossil
fuels and accept that we already have more fossil fuels on the
books of the world’s energy companies than we can safely burn.
We must safely deflate the dangerous ‘carbon bubble’ of funds
invested in fossil fuels that simply can’t be burnt. Furthermore,
existing burnable fossil fuel allowances must be used responsibly
to fuel the transition to a zero carbon future. The sooner we accept
this and act to phase out fossil fuels from energy production,
the faster we can reap the benefits of clean energy and reach
a sustainable net zero future. Net-negative processes, such as
reforestation, are a precious and limited resource that should not
be wasted on removing emissions we can actually avoid – such as
from continuing to burn fossil fuels for energy.
A well managed transition can reach zero emissions without
disruption to industry or consumers:
Opponents of renewables often claim the intermittent nature of
renewables means they only work when the sun shines and the
wind blows and that only fossil fuels can “keep the lights on”.
These claims are false. Large, highly industrialised countries like
Germany are showing that up to 70% of their electricity needs are
already being generated by renewables on a consistent basis;2 and
detailed studies show that a 100% renewable energy system is
feasible, because the technologies to balance the energy supply
from renewables with demand already exist. Fuel switching,
smart metering, storage solutions, distributed energy systems,
micro-grids, smart-grids and super-grids are all part of a rapidly
growing mix of technologies and tools driving the renewable energy
revolution. By managing energy demand and using energy storage,
it is now possible to balance energy supply and demand and “keep
the lights on” at all times using 100% renewable energy.
Joining the dots
The vast majority of GHG emissions come from fossil fuels used
to drive our energy systems, which is why many studies logically
focus first on energy. To get to net zero emissions, however, we also
need to consider emissions from other sectors such as industrial
processes, agriculture and land use. Some of these emissions will
be very difficult to eliminate, so carbon negative processes will be
required if we are to achieve the long-term mitigation goal of net
zero emissions. Such a joined up approach makes the transition
to zero more transparent. Integrated net zero scenarios typically
cover several key sectors, including buildings, transport, industry,
agriculture and land use. This ensures that emissions generated in
one sector but connected to another sector are fully accounted for,
as illustrated in the IDA Climate Plan 2050 and the Nordic Energy
& IEA scenarios.
In particular, integrating changes in land use with changes in
energy systems offers a key piece of the net zero tool-kit. The
connectivity between a 100% renewable energy system and the
rethinking of land use is demonstrated in the Centre for Alternative
Technology’s Zero Carbon Britain report. This study demonstrates
how rethinking land use can allow for the full integration of:
•
The provision of sufficient healthy food
•
The generation of energy from renewable resources
•
The delivery of carbon capture processes.
This allows the GHG emissions that cannot be eliminated from nonenergy processes (industry, waste and agriculture) to be balanced
out using safe, sustainable and reliable methods of capturing
carbon, such as reforestation and the restoration of important
habitats such as peat-land. It is important that scenarios linking
energy and land use are conducted for many regions and at many
levels.
2: In fact, on May 11th 2014, renewables reached 74% of the electricity supply in Germany, lowering the price of electricity to net negative for the first
time ever: http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/13/3436923/germany-energy-records/
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Multiple co-benefits
In addition to the benefits of stabilising our climate, pursuing the
goal of zero emissions offers a huge opportunity to achieve a wide
range of co-benefits. Alternatively, from some developing country
perspectives, there are many social and economic developments to
which mitigation is a co-benefit. These include, and are not limited
to, a better quality of life for people, with cleaner air, water and soil
improving our life expectancy, respiratory health, and access to
green urban spaces that support mental and physical wellbeing.
Phasing out fossil fuels and phasing in renewable energies will
bring localised employment, more stable energy pricing, and wider
access to energy and will support collaborative local communities.
All of this creates synergies that enable us to stay within and
protect the nine planetary boundaries that we rely on every day.
(See the next section ‘Benefits beyond emissions’ for more
information.)
Everyone must be ambitious – we must all pull together
The science demands urgent action now: due to the cumulative
nature of our emissions the longer we leave it, the more
challenging the rate of change that’s required. A clear goal of
zero GHG emissions can help to bring the least ambitious parties
on board by providing a tangible destination to work towards.
Scenario building is the beginning of the pathway for a country’s
climate commitment, but must also be rooted in the choices we
make today; governments, international organisations, academic
networks and civil society organisations must all work together
around the shared goal of taking the actions now that will set us on
a path to achieve zero GHG emissions by mid-century. Powerful
action, targets, incentives and legislation are needed now because
the longer we wait, the harder the task becomes.
We can identify immediate actions today that lay the foundations
for a zero emissions future, and build this knowledge into our
planning. For example, reducing demand by improving energy
efficiency in buildings, developing more energy efficient transport
systems and appliances. We know that we can produce abundant
clean electricity, but that the availability of solid, liquid and gas
fuels will be constrained in a zero emissions future. We should
therefore, wherever possible, begin to design out the need for
these fuels, such as by exploring alternatives to materials that
require high-temperature processes in their manufacture, or
transportation systems that require high-density fuels. There are
many other examples of this approach.
We must develop the policy frameworks required to transfer zero
emissions research into a zero emission reality. This is already
happening in many places; for example in the region of Byron Shire
in South Australia3, and in Costa Rica4, which recently powered
itself on 100% renewables for 75 days in a row. We need to
accelerate this process by actively supporting those who wish to
join and replicate the zero emissions fast trackers who are blazing
the trail.
To achieve this we must invest to create new kinds of shared
infrastructure, not just physical energy grids such as the supergrids
and global land resources (as described by the WWF Energy report),
but also new kinds of collaborative knowledge platforms that join
up our thinking across borders, disciplines and scales.
A multitude of individual countries, cities and communities are
already working towards zero, or near zero emissions goals. Their
numbers are rapidly increasing, but this is the biggest global
task humanity has ever faced. There are increasing opportunities
for cooperation within and between countries and regions,
exemplified by the MAPS and DDPP initiatives. Without losing sight
of the urgency of the task, we must join together and celebrate
our successes and the exciting progress we are making towards
the goal of a stable climate, a better future and an equitable,
prosperous zero emissions world. By working together we can
find even smarter and more efficient solutions more quickly than
working alone.
3: http://www.byron.nsw.gov.au/byron-shire-aims-to-become-australias-first-zero-emissions-community
4: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/costa-rica-goes-75-days-powering-itself-using-only-renewable-energy-10126127.html
19
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BENEFITS BEYOND
EMISSIONS
In addition to stabilising our climate, pursuing the goal of zero emissions may also necessitate
transforming our current systems in some fundamental ways. Whilst posing challenges, this
is also a huge opportunity to achieve a wide range of additional benefits. Here we link the
achievement of zero emissions to a range of possible co-benefits, such as a more inclusive, more
stable economic system, greater equity both within and between nations, increased wellbeing,
resilience to climate impacts, strengthened communities and an improved relationship between
humans and nature. We identify these as important areas that should be further explored by zero
emissions scenarios in order to fully evaluate the wider benefits of moving to a zero emissions
future.
Equitable economics
Inequality, both between and within regions and nations, is a
source of considerable suffering and unrest in the world. This
is exacerbated by the huge accumulations of wealth and power
associated with ownership and control of concentrated resources,
such as fossil fuels. The transition to zero carbon energy systems,
which are rooted in our land and seas and are inherently more
equitably dispersed, provides the opportunity for increased access
to energy, and the potential for control and ownership to become
more widely and equally distributed.
SUBSIDISING THE
POLLUTERS
Our current economic systems favour short termism and are
extractive and unfair in terms of giving a fair slice of prosperity to all.
Pursuing zero emissions both requires and provides an opportunity
to research and reshape a better economics that has fairness and
the wellbeing of human and natural systems at its core.
Before we can make any comparisons between existing energy
systems and the zero emissions scenarios included in this report, it
is vital we consider what is not included in conventional economic
analyses. Some of the costs of using fossil fuels are obvious, such
as the cost of mining coal or the labour and materials to build
power stations. These costs are included in the price paid in our
electricity bills or at the petrol pump. However, some genuine
costs of accessing fossil fuels are not, including environmental
degradation, the need for adaptation arising from climate change,
human health problems caused by air pollution from burning coal
and oil, damage to land from mining and to miners from lung
diseases, acid rain, and water pollution, as well as the costs of
armed forces needed to protect overseas sources of oil or gas. The
extent these ‘unaccounted costs’ is highlighted below.
In May 2015, one of the world’s most influential financial institutions, the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), released the report How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies? , which estimates a great many of
the ‘unaccounted costs’ associated with fossil energy. These include direct subsidising of fuel as well
as reduced sales taxes and allowing fossil fuel companies to avoid paying the health, environmental,
and social costs – for example, the costs associated with premature deaths through local air pollution,
the exacerbation of congestion, and other adverse side effects of vehicle use. They estimate the total
‘energy subsidy’ is projected to reach $5.3 trillion per year (6.5% of global GDP) for 2015. These sums
are larger than the estimates provided in a study by the OECD due to difference in methodologies, but
the overall conclusion of both the OECD and IMF studies is that substantial resources are being (mis)
spent supporting fossil fuel extraction, thus impeding the transition to a greener economy.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
RENEWABLES
CREATE MORE
JOBS
20
In its 2015 report, the International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
estimates that renewable energy employed
7.7 million people, directly or indirectly,
around the world in 2014 (excluding large
hydropower). This is an 18% increase from
the number reported last year.
Factoring in large hydropower added
another 1.5 million jobs to this figure.
The current economic thinking is deeply rooted in a ‘least
cost’ strategy in which all expenditure is seen as a burden
to be minimised; however, any economic analysis of a zero
emissions goal must include the wider economic benefits to
any country, region or city investing in such a transition, as
the Bhutan government have built into their decarbonisation
plan for example. Most crucial are the benefits from the
greater energy system efficiency, the creation of hundreds of
thousands of quality jobs, and the possibility for communities
to take a greater share of ownership and profits from an
energy system rooted in their land and seas. In short, a better
off and more equal society with a more balanced economy.
Adaptation and resilience
The 2015 World Bank report, Decarbonising Development outlines
how economic and social development and decarbonisation are
mutually supportive. The report highlights the small window of
opportunity for rapidly developing countries and cities to develop
sustainable and resilient forms of urbanisation, and avoid locking
in carbon-intensive infrastructure.
The report goes on to state that ‘decarbonising development
is necessary to stabilise climate change’, making it clear that
countries need to be allowed affordable options for low carbon
development and that these must be embraced in the shortterm.
The bottom line is that ‘there are multiple co-benefits, such
as greater access to public transport and electrification, and
avoiding one million premature deaths annually by 2050 from
abated air pollution’.
DECARBONISING
DEVELOPMENT
All countries - developed and developing,
large and small - should prepare
2050-orientated low and zero carbon
development scenarios and strategies to
maximise synergy between their mitigation
and adaptation actions needed to live in a
near 2ºC world. A transition to zero emissions
will not only reduce the degree of adaptation
required, it also offers many opportunities
for increasing resilience. The transition
to zero emissions energy systems using
renewables provides the opportunity for
greater cooperation, rather than competition
for resources, by giving more reliable access
to and control of energy supply, especially
for the poor, and in remote dispersed areas.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
21
Better health and wellbeing
The Lancet’s 2015 Commission on health and climate change, with
over 100 authors from around the world, stated its central finding
as ‘...tackling climate change could be the greatest global health
opportunity of the 21st century’.
To realise this opportunity they conclude that ‘achieving a
decarbonised global economy and securing the public health
benefits it offers is no longer primarily a technical or economic
question - it is now a political one’, as this report also shows. The
Commission found that a long-term goal of net zero emissions
is both essential for stabilising the atmosphere and unifying
global efforts to tackle climate change. It is significant that the
Commission has put the rapid phase-out of coal as one of its
ten recommendations to government to take action on in the next
five years. Phasing out fossil fuels is key to reducing ill health and
premature deaths as well as improving the global population’s
health and wellbeing.
A GLOBAL HEALTH
OPPORTUNITY
Without dismissing the great benefits that
fossil-fuelled development has achieved,
it can also be seen that fossil fuels have
nurtured increasing pollution, dislocation,
and violations of a wide range of human
rights. Examples around the world show
that clean air, water and soil improve
life expectancy, and that cleaner urban
environments are more pleasant to live
in and support mental wellbeing. The
Copenhagen 2025 Climate Plan shows that
the very act of pursuing sustainable ways
of living could help ‘improve the quality
of life’, as well as helping us build our
collective resilience to climatic changes in
the future.
LOOKING AFTER THE
PLANET’S HEALTH
Better environment
Groundbreaking research from Rockström et al 5 in
2009 and latterly Steffan et al 6 in 2015 has shown
that this planet’s stability relies on nine key planetary
processes. Every process has its own boundary that,
if crossed, enters a danger zone, where there is a
high risk of instability by reaching its tipping point after which its behaviour cannot be predicted.
It is clear that transitioning to zero emissions
sustainably and equitably will also improve our
relationship with nature and its resources, helping
us to stay within the planetary boundaries of global
freshwater use, ozone depletion, ocean acidification
and land-system change.
Climate change is just one way in which human
activities are exceeding the ability of natural systems
to absorb our impacts. A zero emissions pathway
offers a powerful opportunity to promote cross
sectoral thinking, enabling us to come back within
vital planetary boundaries by protecting the key
global systems that support all human activity. With
zero emissions as our collective goal, the approach
required offers us the opportunity to rebalance our
relationship with nature for the benefit of the planet
and ourselves. Seas and waterways could be less
polluted, and toxic waste legacies reduced, whilst
productive and biodiverse forests and other land-use
practices increased.
5: Rockstrom. et al., ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, 24 September 2009, Nature 461, 472-475
6: Steffen et al., ‘Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet.’, 2015, Science, Vol. 347 no. 6223
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
22
NEXT STEPS
The research undertaken for this report shows the glass half full
as well as the glass half empty. Half full because there is a wealth
of case studies and scenarios out there – over 100 in our initial
research – that show there is a growing movement of countries,
cities, communities and regional initiatives that are already well
advanced in planning for zero emissions by mid-century. Half
empty because too many countries and cities still lack such
analysis and therefore cannot in earnest begin the process of
consultation with their own citizens and stakeholders about how
to tackle climate risks.
to undertake long term zero carbon, climate resilient strategies.
This work programme would in effect support implementation
of elements of the Bali Action Plan and Cancun Agreements that
have been neglected, notably, paragraphs 45 and 65 of Decision
1/CP.16 adopted in 2010, which stated that developed countries
should create low-carbon strategies, and encouraged developing
countries to undertake sustainable low-carbon development
strategies. Paris can help address the fact that too few countries
have formally presented or undertaken such longer-term visions
and that this should be rectified well before 2020.
Preparations for the Paris Agreement have given countries an
opportunity to start the process of transitioning their economies
to forms of climate resilient development that generate prosperity
and wellbeing, and only use clean forms of energy. All countries
therefore need to use the process of preparing Intended Nationally
Determined Contributions (INDCs) to prepare scenarios and
strategies that align their short-term mitigation, adaptation and
broader development goals with longer-term timeframes such as
2050.
Our concluding recommendation is that a network to support
modellers and practitioners be established. This will enable them to
share insights and expertise as a way to support the development
of long-term scenarios and decarbonisation strategies by all,
including how to replicate and scale up successful programmes
showcased in this report. This zero practitioners network could
be an output of COP-21. After all, the road from Paris is far more
important than the road to Paris in underpinning the implementation
of the Paris Agreement. Platforms and networks to support its
implementation, by engaging citizens and stakeholders to create a
zero carbon, climate resilient world, should already be established
as part of the Paris deal. This will help us in our collective task of
keeping global temperatures below 2ºC, to deliver both a stable
climate and a prosperous future for generations to come.
But doing so will require financial, technological and capacity
building resources. The Paris process - both the pre 2020 work
(Stream 2) process and the post 2020 work (Stream 1) process
- could help by creating a work programme that could channel
finance, capacity building and resources to all countries who wanted
ZERO PRACTITIONERS NETWORK
Why we need a network
The modelling and scenario building of how to cut CO2₂ and
GHG emissions has existed for decades. In that time it has
evolved to incorporate many complexities, including ‘evidencebased’ modelling and qualitative analyses that make the output
increasingly accurate, relevant and useful. At the same time the
science of climate change tells us that the global effort to control
anthropogenic climate change must be effectively undertaken,
with the implementation of zero emissions energy systems starting
today.
One of the tools that can serve to help envision a more sustainable
and decarbonised future is modelling and scenario-building. This
community and knowledge-base already exists, but we need to
facilitate better connections between the practitioners and the
users - they are the policy and decision-making communities
at the forefront of making the big decisions on how to tackle the
climate challenge.
This network will seek to build an open and collaborative space
for bringing together those with the knowledge and skills to model
and build scenarios with those seeking the information and tools
they have to offer.
Our guiding values
The network has been initiated by a group of concerned
decarbonisation practitioners and users with different backgrounds
and organisational affiliations, all with a common set of guiding
values.
Zero practitioners are guided by the science that tells us that to
prevent exceeding 2ºC temperature rise, net global anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020, declining to reach
near zero by around 2050 and net negative thereafter.
23
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
We also believe that the phase-out of greenhouse gas emissions
should be coupled with a phase-in of clean and accessible energy
globally with special efforts to provide clean energy to those who
lack access to energy today.
The Network will also explore how it can provide communications
support on aspects of the science and technical feasibility of
decarbonisation to zero at an international level including how the
multitude of solutions can be best made available.
Zero practitioners aim to seize the once in a generation opportunity
to stabilise our climate alongside creating ways of accessing the
co-benefits of sustainable development, including access to clean
energy for the poor, healthier diets and enhanced biodiversity.
Finally, the Zero Practitioners Network seeks to better influence
the international and national policy debates with informed and
scientifically, economically and technically accurate contributions,
guided by values of collaboration and support.
Members of the Network will internally have the opportunity to
discuss controversies that scenario-building must address headon with a more informed and open forum for discussion, including
subjects such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, bioCCS, offsetting, nuclear, and the role of land use. By engaging
practitioners, academics, policy makers and civil society, the
Network can offer a platform for the difficult discussions to be had,
with the values of supporting progress on tackling climate change
as effectively and equitably as possible at its heart.
What will the Network do?
The Network is intended to have a diverse international membership
of organisations working on zero modelling. It will provide a trusted
space for members to discuss their research and support activities
and provide information to help each other take their work forward.
The Network will offer help desk facilities to ensure that policymakers working on global, regional, national, city and community
levels are supported in their journey to zero. This will be done
by building up a database of experts working on zero scenarios,
presenting and commissioning case studies, sharing technical
feasibilities and compiling and making available a database of
informally peer-reviewed work.
Invitation to join
We invite all interested organisations and platforms with
knowledge of zero emissions modelling, scenario-building,
policy making and technical or scientific communications to
join the Zero Practitioners Network.
Please contact Track 0 for more details on how to join and
contribute:
[email protected]
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
24
ANNEX 1
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO
CASE STUDIES
The case studies presented here are split into four sections: global, regional, country and city level scenarios.
All sections contain a selection of case studies from the rapidly expanding global research on zero or near
zero GHG emissions-based development. There are also some scenarios presented which explore deep
decarbonisation with a less certain pathway for meeting the demands of the climate science. To offer a
wider range of options some of these scenarios include carbon capture and storage and nuclear generation,
but we recognise both are controversial and not necessarily the best fit for every scenario.
ICON KEY
The different focuses of each case study are summarised using the iconography in the box below.
Icon
Scenario feature
Net-zero emissions scenario
Low emissions scenario
Includes CO2 emissions only
Scenario includes all greenhouse gases
+
-
Scenario includes carbon offsetting
Scenario addresses single sector
Scenario addresses multiple sectors
Governmental author
Non-governmental author
Scenario offers a vision for the future
Agreed action plan
Country also has a scenario in the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDP)
Scenario uses 50% renewable energy or more
Scenario uses 100% renewable energy
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
25
GLOBAL
Who
World Wildlife Fund, Ecofys
and the Office for Metropolitan Architecture
What
The Energy Report – 100% Renewable Energy by 2050
When 2011
Key
THIS REPORT
HAS BEEN
PRODUCED IN
COLLABORATION
WITH:
REPORT
OMA
AMO
REPORT
INT
2011
THE
ENERGY REPORT
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2050
WWF called upon the expertise of respected energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answer to the
question of whether the world could be powered by 100% renewable energy. In response, Ecofys has
produced a bold and ambitious scenario – which demonstrates that it is technically possible to achieve
almost 100% renewable energy sources globally, within the next four decades.
The report shows that with ambitious energy-saving measures, energy demand in 2050 could be 15%
lower than in 2005, even though population, industrial output, passenger travel and freight transport
continue to rise. Industry is using more resource-efficient and energy-efficient materials, buildings
are better insulated and there is a shift to more efficient forms of transport.
As far as possible, electricity is used rather than solid and liquid fuels. Wind, solar, biomass and
hydropower are the main sources of electricity, with solar and geothermal sources, as well as heat
pumps, providing a large share of heat for buildings and industry. ‘Smart’ electricity grids allow us to
store and deliver energy more efficiently.
Bioenergy (liquid biofuels and solid biomass) is used as a last resort where other renewable energy
sources are not viable – primarily in providing fuels for aeroplanes, ships and trucks, and in industrial
processes that require very high temperatures. We can meet part of this demand from waste products,
but it would still be necessary to grow sustainable biofuel crops and take more wood from wellmanaged forests to meet demand. Careful land-use planning and better international cooperation
and governance are essential to ensure we do this without threatening food and water supplies or
biodiversity, or increasing atmospheric carbon.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
26
GLOBAL
Who
ACT 2015
What
The Three Propositions
When 13th October 2013
Key
+
-
The ACT 2015 consortium has developed ‘three propositions’ with differing scenarios for a 2015
climate change agreement, illustrating three different options for policy pathways with different tradeoffs. All of the propositions are consistent with the internationally agreed goal of limiting average
global temperature rise below 2°C, but differ in the architecture of the agreement by including different
combinations of national and overall mitigation commitments, different timelines for action, varying
uses of legal language and elements of adaptation and finance. The scenarios were developed by
the ACT 2015 Consortium, which consists of the world’s top climate experts from developing and
developed countries.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
27
REGIONAL
The full list of regional and country scenarios (listed in the Annex 2), from which we selected our case
studies, covers a total of 57 different countries with some form of decarbonisation scenario. The list
demonstrates that scenarios developed so far predominantly cover developed and emerging economies.
These include 16 of the world’s biggest emitters, producing roughly 74% of global CO2 emissions in
20117, which means that currently more than three quarters of the world’s carbon emissions are covered
by country and regional, governmental and non governmental, decarbonisation scenarios.
Who
Nordic Energy Research and International Energy Agency (IEA)
What
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives
- Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future
When February 2011
Key
+
-
The five Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden have announced
ambitious goals towards decarbonising their energy systems by 2050. Using the modelling and analysis
approaches of the IEA’s well-regarded Energy Technology Perspectives reports, a joint project of the
IEA and leading Nordic research institutions poses the question: can they do it?
They find that a near complete decarbonisation of the Nordic energy system is very challenging but
possible. The report finds that a systems approach will make transforming the energy system easier
and less costly. Changes in energy demand and supply must be considered simultaneously across
multiple sectors. The report finds that a highly interconnected European energy system will facilitate
decarbonisation and could offer large economic opportunities for the Nordic countries. For example,
the Nordic hydropower resource will be increasingly valuable, both in terms of energy supply and for
energy storage and balancing of the North European power system. The report states that regional
cooperation in infrastructure development, research, development and demonstration, and in strategies
for transport and CCS, would offer critical benefits.
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives
Nordic Energy
Technology Perspectives
Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future
7 : Union of Concerned Scientists:
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html#.VTZlemRViko
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
28
REGIONAL
Who
Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland; Mizuho Information & Research
Institute, Tokyo; Silla University, Korea & National University of Mongolia
What
North-East Asian Super Grid:
Renewable Energy Mix and Economics
When November 2014
Key
This research describes how the high growth rates of new renewable energy technology capacities
enable the transformation of the energy system. It shows that North-East Asia has excellent solar
resources, for example in the Gobi desert, which could be used to meet demand in highly populated
areas of China, Korea and Japan. This study presents a spatially and hourly resolved energy system
model for the region with a 100% renewable energy supply for the electricity demand.
The research describes how electricity could be distributed around the region using a high voltage
direct current transmission system. Three different scenarios are explored, varying by the level of
centralisation or decentralisation of the system. The costs of electricity in all these scenarios is found
to be affordable. The mix of electricity generation varies, with greater or lesser proportions of wind and
solar power, depending on the scenario.
The researchers conclude that a 100% renewable electricity system in North-East Asia is not wishful
thinking – it is a real policy option.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
29
REGIONAL
Country The EU
Who
European Commission
What
Energy Roadmap 2050
When
December 2011
Key
The EU is committed to reducing GHG emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. In the Energy
Roadmap 2050 the European Commission explores how the EU’s decarbonisation target can be met
whilst ensuring security of energy supply and competitiveness.
The Energy Roadmap 2050 examines four decarbonisation pathways. These include different
combinations of energy efficiency, renewables, nuclear, and carbon capture and storage that would
allow a goal of 85% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 to be achieved. The scenarios show that
decarbonisation of the energy system is possible using currently available technologies and that the
costs of transforming the energy system do not differ substantially from the ‘current policy initiatives’
scenario. Exposure to energy price volatility is also reduced as well as energy import dependency.
Other key findings are that electricity will play an increasing role in the EU energy system, for example
providing more energy for heating and transport. The electricity supply will need to be almost fully
decarbonised by 2050, and even in high energy efficiency scenarios the amount of electricity required
will increase from today’s levels. Renewable energy will be vital and can supply a large fraction of the
total primary energy demand.
30
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
NATIONAL
At the time of press nearly 130 countries have supported the inclusion of a long-term mitigation goal
to set a global decarbonisation target that meets the demands of the science for staying below 2ºC of
warming. This amounts to nearly two thirds of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Within those countries, seven have made national commitments to
become carbon neutral or reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050 at the latest. We include in our country
case studies scenarios and plans to achieve net zero from the governments of Bhutan, Costa Rica,
Denmark, Ethiopia, Germany, Norway and Sweden.
Alongside governmental efforts, the number of non governmental country scenarios continues to grow,
from an increasing number of sources including research, academia, devoted low carbon initiatives
and networks, and intergovernmental initiatives. This body of work can also play a role in supporting
countries’ commitments to transitioning to net zero (and has already, in the case of Beyond Zero
Emissions, inspiring Byron Shire in South Australia to commit to reducing their GHG emissions to net
zero in only ten years.8)
8: Guardian, ‘Byron Bay first regional Australian city to commit to zero emissions’, 9th March 2015. Accessed from:
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/09/byron-bay-first-regional-australian-city-to-commit-to-zero-emissions
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
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NATIONAL
Country Australia
Who
Beyond Zero Emissions
What
Zero Carbon Australia
When
Variety of publication dates
Key
The Zero Carbon Australia initiative is a collaboration between Beyond Zero Emissions, The University
of Melbourne’s Energy Institute, The University of Melbourne’s Sustainable Society Institute, and the
Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of New South Wales. The initiative is unique in
that it comprises a series of reports describing how Australia can reach zero GHG emissions across
different sectors of the economy. The individual reports cover sectors such as stationary energy,
buildings, transport, agriculture and forestry. They will be combined into a single document to form a
comprehensive plan for reaching zero emissions in Australia. The timeline for implementation of the
plan is very ambitious – for example, moving to a 100% renewable stationary energy system over a
ten-year period.
The report on stationary energy describes how Australia can make use of its outstanding renewable
energy resources to achieve a 100% renewable energy system. The key technologies for Australia
are concentrating solar power and wind power. Detailed modelling for the project shows that these
sources could provide the vast majority of energy demand. Biomass and hydroelectricity would be able
to provide contingency backup for up the remaining 2% of annual demand.
In another of its reports it is demonstrated how GHG emissions from agriculture could be reduced to net
zero through a combination of changes to agricultural practices and re-vegetation of some agricultural
land.
Beyond Zero has also looked into the costs and economic impacts of making this transition. They find
that the investment required for the Stationary Energy Plan represents 3% of Gross Domestic Product
over the ten years. Though the up-front investment required by the plan is significant, the plan’s low
ongoing costs result in dramatically reduced expenditures over the long-term. Calculating net present
costs on a longer timeframe (2011-2040) demonstrates that the plan is about the same cost as the
‘business as usual’ scenario. Savings expand when the broader economic benefits of the plan are
included, such as avoided oil imports and carbon taxes. Taking these costs into account realises a very
rapid economic payback of only a few years. Similarly, reports on transport show that high speed rail
is a financially viable proposition, with infrastructure and other costs able to be recovered through fare
revenue. Net present costs of implementing the buildings plan are equivalent or lower than costs under
a ‘business as usual’ scenario, with various scenarios for wholesale electricity prices.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
32
NATIONAL
Country Bhutan
Who
Royal Government of Bhutan
What
A national strategy and action plan for low carbon development
When
January 2012
Key
Bhutan’s National Environment Commission (NEC) commissioned this national strategy to feed into its 20132018 five-year plan by exploring how Bhutan could meet its target of maintaining carbon neutrality. The analysis,
upon which the strategy recommendations are based, comprises various scenarios, analysing development
paths until the year 2040. The analysis presents a baseline, i.e. development pathway under ‘business as
usual’, and three different scenarios showing the possible impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy
on the emission levels.
Bhutan:
A national strategy and action plan
for low carbon development
FINAL REPORT
31-01-2012
Bhutan’s GHG emissions in 2009 were estimated at 2.1 million tCO2e, which is about one third of the estimated
carbon sequestration (negative emissions) from Bhutan’s land of 6.3 million tCO2e. The study suggests that
under ‘business as usual’, Bhutan’s GHG emissions could rise to 4.7 million tCO2e, which is still less than its
carbon sequestration capacity. The energy-related emissions alone increase by a factor of 2.5 in the baseline.
However, by implementing energy efficiency and renewable energy measures, energy-related emissions could
be reduced by around half.
The plan highlights the importance of further work to verify the accuracy of the estimates of the carbon
sequestration (negative emissions) from Bhutan’s land. It is vital for all countries that these carbon sinks are
accurately quantified and monitored if we are to stay within a global GHG emissions budget.
The mining based industries are the main emitters of carbon. Emissions from these industries depend, among
other things, on the number of future licenses issued. Restricting the number of licenses may not be consistent
with strategies to diversify the economic base and to increase exports. The study recommends that a controlled
development should aim to ensure employment opportunities, to develop local capacity to exploit a larger share
of the value chain, and to limit local and global environmental impacts from mining and processing. Possible
actions include further investigation of whether licensing can be combined with obligations that limit carbon
emissions and increase national economic benefits – for example, an obligation to provide data for assessing
the carbon footprint more accurately, to implement energy management, to employ a local work force, to train
the local work force etc.
The study found that within the agriculture sector there are opportunities for increasing yield and thus rural
welfare without increasing carbon emissions.
Finally, the study recommends that a high priority should be to complete the sequestration inventory already
initiated by Department of Forestry so that the carbon sink capacity is accurately quantified and monitored.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
33
NATIONAL
Country Chile
Who
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)
What
MAPS Chile - Mitigation options for a low carbon development
When
2014
Key
Description: MAPS is a collaboration between developing countries to establish the evidence base for
the transition to low carbon and resilient countries. The MAPS engages stakeholders from all sectors
within participating countries and partners them with indigenous and international researchers. The
research conducted explores possible emissions reductions and their social and economic impacts, to
allow these countries to make informed climate commitments.
MAPS Chile
MitigAtion oPtionS
for A Low CArbon DeveLoPMent
PhASe 2
SyntheSiS of reSuLtS
ExEcutivE summary
thE projEct and thE contExt
commEnts by thE scEnario building tEam
Who havE dEvElopEd maps chilE
1
The MAPS Chile research has explored Chile’s options for reducing its GHG emissions. It has determined
a baseline of emissions under ‘business as usual’ to 2030 and explored options for emissions reductions,
such as by increasing renewable energy, switching to zero and low emissions vehicles, and promoting
reforestation. Nine mitigation scenarios were developed with different combinations of the 96 emissions
reduction options from all sectors. The macroeconomic impacts of the scenarios were also estimated,
such as the effect on GDP and employment.
A third phase of the MAPS project in Chile, to be finalised by the end of 2015, will refine the results,
evaluate the co-benefits of the mitigation measures studied, and analyse what are appropriate
emissions reductions for the long term (2030).
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
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NATIONAL
Country Costa Rica
Who
Government of Costa Rica - Costa Rica Climate Change Department
What
Carbon Neutral by 2021
When
May 2012
Key
Costa Rica has set the ambitious target to achieve carbon neutrality by 2021. Costa Rica is already a
large user of renewable energy, with over 90% of electricity coming from a combination of wind, hydro,
and geothermal. It has a target to achieve 100% renewable electricity generation and is making good
progress – Costa Rica has already been powered by 100% renewable electricity for the first 75 days
of 2015.11
However, fossil fuels are still relied upon for transport and industry. Decarbonising the transport sector
remains a challenge for Costa Rica to achieve carbon neutrality. The Costa Rican government has
identified that land use is key to achieving its target of carbon neutrality. A tax on petrol in the country
is used for payments to landowners for growing trees and protecting the carbon capturing and highly
biodiverse rainforests. Whilst clearing forests may allow short-term profits, protecting forests should
allow Costa Rica to claim the value of the ecosystem services these forests provide long into the future.
11: The Independent, ‘Costa Rica goes 75 days powering itself using only renewable energy’, 22 March 2015.
Accessed from: http://tinyurl.com/q6lk2cv
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
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NATIONAL
Country Denmark
Who
Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy and The Danish Energy Agency
What
The Road to a Danish Energy System Without Fossil Fuels &
2020, 2035, 2050 Scenarios for energy decarbonisation
When
September 2010 & May 2014
Key
Green
energy
– t h e roa d to a D anish
e n e rg y s y stem witho ut
f os s i l f ue l s
Summary of the work, results and recommendations
of the Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy
28 September 2010
1
The Danish Government has set the target of decarbonising its energy sector, moving to 100%
renewable energy by 2050. A report by the Danish Commission on Climate Change Policy describes
how the country can achieve its goals. It describes the technological changes required, such as greater
energy efficiency in homes and transport, increases in the amount of energy generated from wind
power, switching to heat pumps to supply district heating systems, and using biomass derived fuels in
the transport sector and to back up the electricity grid.
The report has 40 specific recommendations for what is required in the forthcoming years to ensure
that Denmark proceeds in an efficient way towards its goal of independence from oil, gas and coal.
Based on an economic analysis the report states that the cost of the transition may be surprisingly low
in comparison with ‘business as usual’, since they will not have to pay for increasingly expensive fossil
fuels or carbon taxes, and energy efficiency improvements in all areas will limit the amount of energy
required in the future.
Alongside the Commission, the Danish Energy Agency has set out four scenarios for Denmark’s future
energy supply up to 2050. The scenarios are technically consistent models of the future energy supply,
including transport, which meet Denmark’s specified political targets of a fossil fuel independent
energy system by 2050, and fossil fuel independent electricity and heating by 2035.
The whole energy system is included in these scenarios, and they describe the relationship between
the different sectors of the energy system, such as power generation, buildings, industry and transport.
The four scenarios include: a high wind power scenario which uses only the amount of biomass that
Denmark could produce nationally; two higher biomass scenarios that imply either some or lots of
biomass would need to be imported from outside Denmark; and a hydrogen scenario that minimises
biomass use by using hydrogen both directly and to create synthetic fuels. The report shows that there
are various pathways Denmark could follow to achieve a fossil fuel independent energy system and that
the technologies required already exist.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
36
NATIONAL
Country Denmark
Who
Vedvarende Energi, Denmark, and International Network for Sustainable Energy
What
Fast Transition to Renewable Energy to 2030
When
March 2015
Key
The Fast Transition to Renewable Energy 2030 describes a way in which Denmark can convert fully to
renewable energy by 2030 and reduce domestic greenhouse gases by 80%, whilst maintaining a good
economy and achieving employment benefits.
Wind turbines and biomass constitute the backbone of the energy system that is based solely upon
renewable energy. In the scenario, 84% of the electricity is produced by wind power, 7% from solar (PV)
and 9% from biomass. The biomass is used as solid biomass in combined heat and power production,
and to a smaller extent as biogas in peak-load gas power plants for grid stabilisation. The remaining
stabilisation comes from heat pumps (where large heat pumps in district heating with large heat
stores are the most important), from hydrogen production and storage, from international electricity
exchange, and from limited demand side management (DSM). Electric cars and 10% of existing power
demand is expected to be useful in DSM. In contrast to official scenarios, the scenario does not require
construction of new international power lines, but relies on the well-developed existing ones. The
energy modelling was conducted with the EnergyPlan energy modelling software that is used widely in
modelling future energy systems.
The plan includes a transition of the transport system with a conversion of almost 40% of the road
transport to public transport and bicycles, while the remaining road transport is converted to electric
and hydrogen powered vehicles. For the few remaining vehicles using liquid fuels, second generation
biofuel is proposed. Heating is mainly provided with heat pumps, solar, geothermal and CHP, mainly via
district heating. Biomass is only from domestic, sustainable sources.
In addition to describing the technical changes required for a transition to 100% renewable energy, the
study also proposes policies to realise the transition for all sectors covered. Among these are support
for citizen’s involvement and an innovative electricity tax that is dependent on the wind power share in
the power mix of the house.
The study also analyses how Denmark can reduce other greenhouse gases, including greenhouse gases
from agriculture, industry, international transport and imports. It concludes that Denmark can reduce
its domestic emissions by 95-100% by 2035-2040. Proposals are also included for large reductions
in international transport emissions. Emissions from imports are found to be mostly dependent on the
energy transition of exporting countries (over 50% of emissions from imports are related to fossil fuel
use in exporting countries). A smaller, but still very significant, part of imported emissions come from
agricultural inputs and can be reduced if Danish agriculture moves towards more organic production
and less fodder import.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
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NATIONAL
Country Ethiopia
Who
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
What
The path to sustainable development
- Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy
When
2011
Key
FEDERAL
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
OF ETHIOPIA
The path to sustainable development
Ethiopia’s ClimateResilient Green
Economy Strategy
The government of Ethiopia aims to achieve carbon-neutral middle-income status before 2025 and
build a climate-resilient green economy.
As one of Africa’s poorest and most vulnerable countries, economic development and greater food
security are vital. This government strategy comprises actions to reduce GHG emissions while
safeguarding economic growth and reducing vulnerability to the effects of climate change (‘climate
resilience’) with adaptation initiatives. Many emissions reduction initiatives have been identified,
including using more efficient cooking stoves, expanding electricity generation from renewable sources,
and improving crop and livestock production practices to increase yields and reduce emissions. If all
the identified initiatives were fully implemented, Ethiopia would limit emissions to current levels in
absolute terms and reduce per capita emissions from 1.8 to 1.1 tCO2e while achieving middle-income
status.
Efforts to reduce emissions can also help with adaptation and resilience to climate change. For example,
the Humbo Regeneration Project allows for the restoration of some 2,700 hectares of degraded land by
replanting the forest, and could also reduce threats to drinking water from erosion caused by flooding
and landslides. According to the World Bank, the Humbo project is expected to sequester over 880,000
tCO2e over 30 years.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
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NATIONAL
Country Germany
Who
German Federal Environment Agency - Umwelt Bundesamt
What
Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral country
When
October 2013
Key
CLIMATE CHANGE
07/2014
Germany in 2050
– a greenhouse
gas-neutral country
+
-
The study aims to present the technical feasibility of Germany achieving GHG-neutral status by 2050.
Within the various sectors of the report - including private households; transport; commerce, trade
and services; and industry - it sets out the ‘solution space’ and suggests the range of alternative
pathways compatible with the target of greenhouse gas neutrality.
This scenario describes one of several possible pathways for a GHG-neutral Germany. It demonstrates
in detail how Germany can cut its GHG emissions by 95% compared to 1990 levels by 2050. This
reduces per person emissions from roughly 11 tonnes per year to approximately 1 tonne. The report
states that, to achieve complete carbon neutrality, the last remaining tonne per capita could be offset
against reduction measures outside Germany.
The report’s scenario outlined for the energy sector follows the German government’s energy concept,
which is based on a fundamental decision that the majority of Germany’s energy requirements should
be met from renewable sources. Key energy targets for 2050 include: increasing the proportion of
electricity generated from renewable sources to at least 80%; reducing current electricity use by 25%;
reducing primary energy consumption by 50%; redeveloping the building stock with the aim of achieving
climate neutrality; and reducing final energy consumption in transport by 40%. The report shows how
such a GHG-neutral energy supply based primarily on renewable electricity can be achieved. It also
demonstrates that Germany is able to achieve its long-term climate protection targets without carbon
capture and storage or the use of nuclear energy - through energy savings, energy efficiency gains
and the use of renewable energy.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
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NATIONAL
Country Japan
Who
Greenpeace Japan
What
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable energy outlook for Japan
When
September 2011
Key
This report was produced for Greenpeace by a team comprising the Institute for Sustainable Energy
Policies, Tokyo, Japan; the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Stuttgart, Germany; and the
Institute for Sustainable Futures, Sydney, Australia. It was produced following the Fukushima disaster,
which led to Japan switching off virtually all of its nuclear power stations.
the advanced energy
[r]evolution
A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK FOR JAPAN
EUROPEAN RENEWABLE
ENERGY COUNCIL
The report proposes a scenario by which Japan could still meet its pledge of reducing GHG emissions
by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020, and go on to reduce CO2 emissions by around 75% from 2007
levels by 2050. The scenario describes how, both in the short and longer term, Japan can increase
its energy efficiency and switch to renewable energy sources. By 2050 energy demand would be
reduced by around 50% and the majority of energy would come from renewable energy sources such
as geothermal, solar, biomass, wind and hydro.
report 2nd edition 2011 japan energy scenario
The report also highlights the economic advantages of the scenario. The authors estimate that because
of increasing fossil fuel prices, the reducing cost of renewables and greater use of energy efficiency,
energy supply costs would be lower under the scenario than under ‘business as usual’. It is also
estimated that the scenario would create hundreds of thousands of jobs in Japan.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
40
NATIONAL
Country Morocco
Who
World Future Council
What
100% Renewable Energy: Boosting Development in Morocco
When
April 2015
Key
V O I C E
O F
F U T U R E
G E N E R A T I O N S
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY:
BOOSTING DEVELOPMENT
IN MOROCCO
This report provides an analysis of the current situation of the energy sector of Morocco and derives
policy recommendations for a just transition towards a 100% renewable energy system. The report
explicitly makes the link between decarbonisation and development.
The report highlights how dependent Morocco currently is on imported energy – the country imports
around 95% of its energy. The report proposes that phasing out fossil fuel resources and transforming
the country’s energy system toward 100% renewable sources will not only benefit the climate but also
the economy and Morocco’s people.
The report builds on research and local expertise as well as on a two-day roundtable discussion on
‘100% Renewable Energy: Boosting Development in Morocco’, hosted by the World Future Council and
Climate Parliament in Rabat, in November 2014. This event was attended by key stakeholders including
parliamentarians, policy makers, members of national energy agencies and utilities, and technical and
academic experts from Morocco. Based on this work the report identifies the environmental, economic
and social benefits for Morocco of utilising its excellent renewable energy potential. It also identifies the
barriers to achieving the transition to 100% renewables and proposes the policies required to achieve
the target.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
41
NATIONAL
Country New Zealand
Who
University of Canterbury
What
A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand
When
August 2010
Key
This study describes how New Zealand could achieve a 100% renewable electricity generation system.
The government of New Zealand have committed to a 90% decarbonisation of their electricity sector
by 2025. Their current system of electricity generation is dominated by hydro-power at approximately
60% of installed capacity. This is augmented with around 30% fossil-fuelled generation, plus minor
contributions from geothermal, wind and biomass. This study explores the potential for a 100%
renewable electricity generation system with substantially increased levels of wind penetration.
Fossil-fuelled electricity production was removed from an historic 3-year data set, and replaced by
modelled electricity production from wind, geothermal and additional options to meet peak demand.
The study shows that generation mixes comprising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass are feasible
both on an energy and a power basis. The use of wind power was found to be more efficient when
combined with energy demand management and the integrated use of the hydro-power system.
Demand shifting was shown to have considerable advantages over installation of a new plant to do
with peaking. Application of this scenario’s approach to countries with different energy resource mixes
is discussed, and options for further research are outlined.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
42
NATIONAL
Country Norway
Who
Norwegian Environment Agency
What
Knowledge base for low-carbon transition in Norway
When
2014
Key
SUMMARY
M-287 | 2014
Knowledge base for low-carbon
transition in Norway
Summary
+
-
Norway has made clear climate commitments. It has pledged at least a 40% GHG emission reduction
by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, with the aim that Norway will be carbon-neutral by 2050. As
part of an ambitious global climate agreement where other developed nations make equally ambitious
commitments, Norway will adopt a binding goal of carbon neutrality no later than 2030. This means
that Norway will commit to achieving emission reductions abroad equivalent to Norwegian emissions
in 2030.10
The work of the Norwegian Environment Agency has assessed the knowledge base for this lowcarbon transition, and has identified feasible emissions reductions across different sectors. The study
finds that per capita emissions of 1-2 tonnes CO2e are feasible by 2050 (excluding land use) and that,
depending on how land use emissions are accounted for, this could allow Norway to become carbon
neutral or better by 2050. However, the report states that to ensure that Norway makes the transition
to a low-carbon society, the net carbon uptake from land use should be additional to and not a
replacement for cuts in emissions in other sectors.
The study places Norway’s transition in the context of global emission reduction initiatives. It highlights
that certain technologies, such as electric vehicles, require global innovation. The study finds that the
scale of emissions reductions possible in agriculture and industrial processes are the most uncertain.
It is identified that Norway can take a lead in innovating emission reductions in various sectors – for
example, reducing process emissions in industry, developing carbon capture and storage technology,
and developing biomass-based chemicals and fuels.
10: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
43
NATIONAL
Country Sweden
Who
Government Offices of Sweden
What
Sweden - an emissions-neutral country by 2050
When
November 2011
Key
+
-
Sweden has adopted the long-term goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. The Swedish government
has identified that its short-term targets and decisions taken today will determine whether we can
achieve the long-term goals. They have therefore begun the process of drawing up a national roadmap
to achieve the goal of a carbon neutral Sweden by 2050.
One study contributing to the Roadmap11 has developed two scenarios showing different pathways by
which Sweden could achieve its carbon neutral goal. Since Sweden already has a largely decarbonised
electricity supply, the key sectors for emissions reductions are transport and industry, and whilst
agricultural emissions cannot be entirely eliminated, they can be reduced. The report highlights that
whilst it is not possible to know all the policy measures required to achieve the long-term goal, broad
agreement on an international long-term climate goal is essential for shaping the development of
national policies in a range of sectors, including energy, transport, housing, agriculture and forestry.
The study highlights the opportunities and challenges in different sectors and makes some initial policy
proposals, for example, strengthening the EU emissions trading scheme.
11 : https://www.naturvardsverket.se/Documents/publikationer6400/978-91-620-6537-9.pdf (only available in Swedish)
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
44
NATIONAL
Country Sweden
Who
IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute and World Wildlife Fund
What
Energy Scenario for Sweden 2050
Based on Renewable Energy Technologies and Sources
When
September 2011
Key
the ivl scenario:
Energy Scenario
for Sweden 2050
Based on Renewable Energy Technologies and Sources
Gustavsson, Mathias
Särnholm, Erik
Stigson, Peter
Zetterberg, Lars
This report tackles a key component of the government target to achieve net zero GHG emissions by
2050, presenting a non-governmental energy scenario for Sweden with close to 100% of energy
coming from renewable sources by 2050. Hydropower, bioenergy, wind and solar power form the
basis of the energy supply in the scenario. Reducing energy demand is also key for the scenario to be
achieved. The report describes how the promotion of energy efficient technologies and consideration
of energy efficiency in investment decisions will be vital for the scenario’s levels of energy efficiency
to be realised.
The report also highlights the crucial role of bioenergy in 100% renewable energy scenarios, particularly
in the transport sector. If not managed carefully the use of biomass for energy has the potential to
cause significant amounts of carbon to be released from stocks held in soils and vegetation, as well as
causing other negative environmental impacts. The report therefore calls for structures and regulation
of biofuels to ensure that those most beneficial for climate mitigation are chosen.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
45
NATIONAL
Country United Kingdom
Who
The Centre for Alternative Technology
What
Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future
When
July 2013
Key
The Zero Carbon Britain (ZCB) scenario demonstrates that we could rapidly reduce UK GHG emissions
to net zero, using only currently available technology. The aim of the ZCB project is to demonstrate
that integrated and technically feasible solutions to the climate problem do exist and so inspire action
towards a positive zero carbon future.
The report shows how UK energy demand could be reduced by around 60% whilst maintaining a high
quality of life. This would be achieved by a combination of more energy efficient buildings, heating
systems, appliances and transport. Using hourly energy modelling based on a 10 year data set, the
report shows how this reduced energy demand could be met using 100% renewable energy. The largest
contribution would come from the UK’s excellent resource for offshore wind. Biomass, combined with
hydrogen produced from surplus electricity, would be used to produce carbon neutral gas and liquid
fuels. These are required to provide a small but important supply of back-up electricity, and to meet
some demands in industry and transport that cannot be electrified, such as aviation.
The report also shows, based on detailed modelling, how diets, food production and land use could
change in order to achieve a net zero GHG Britain. By changing diets and reducing meat and dairy
consumption to the healthy amount for human nutrition, the report shows how land can be made
available for other uses. These include producing biomass for energy and increasing carbon capture
through restored peatlands and increased forest cover. By taking this integrated approach to future
land use and energy systems the report shows that the UK could grow the food for healthy diets, have a
100% renewable energy system, and achieve net zero GHG emissions by balancing residual emissions
with increased carbon capture.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
46
NATIONAL
Country The United States
Who
The Solutions Project
What
100% Wind, Water and Sunlight Energy Plans for the 50 United States
When
June 2015
Key
The Solutions Project presents science-based roadmaps developed at Stanford University and U.C.
Davis for each of the 50 United States to reduce energy demand and switch to 100% renewable energy
systems based on energy from wind, water and sunlight. The plans contemplate all new energy sources
being renewable by 2020, 80-85% replacement of fossils fuels by 2030, and a 100% renewable
energy system by 2050.
The project describes how electrification of energy demand and end-use energy efficiency in all
sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) could reduce U.S. energy demand
by around 36%. The remaining energy demand could be supplied by a mixture of wind, photovoltaic,
concentrated solar, wave, tidal, hydroelectric and geothermal energy. Along with electricity, the plans
contemplate the use of hydrogen produced by electrolysis to meet some energy demands. The study
finds that this new energy infrastructure would require around 0.5% of U.S. land area, mostly in
deserts and barren land, and 1.7% of land area for spacing between wind turbines (mostly agricultural
and range land).
The project also looks into the economic impacts of the plans, crucially taking into account the
externalised costs of today’s fossil fuel dominated energy system, including its impact on health and
the environment. It finds that around 4.5 million 40-year construction jobs and around 2.2 million
40-year operation jobs could be created for the energy facilities alone, exceeding job loss of 3.9
million. The paper calculates that because of rising fossil fuel prices, a 100% renewable energy system
will be less costly in the future than a fossil fuel dependent system, and that the avoided health and
environmental costs considerably increase this difference in cost.
The project’s authors conclude that the greatest barriers to the conversion described are neither
technical nor economic, they are social and political.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
47
NATIONAL
Country The United States
Who
Greenpeace International and Global Wind Energy Council
What
Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable USA energy outlook
When
May 2014
Key
This report presents a detailed vision of an almost fully decarbonised energy system for the USA. In the
scenario, emissions are reduced by 96% from 1990 levels by 2050. The energy system in the scenario
is almost entirely free of fossil fuels, instead relying on renewable energy – predominantly wind and
solar.
In the scenario, primary energy demand decreases by around 40% from current levels. The report
describes how this can be achieved with high energy efficiency standards, for example, for appliances,
industry and new buildings, and with the renovation of existing buildings. Transport can be decarbonised
by greater use of public transport as well as switching to hybrid and fully electric vehicles.
The study finds that implementing the scenario would create several hundred thousand jobs, whilst
electricity bills are significantly lower than under the reference ‘business as usual’ scenario.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
48
NATIONAL
Country 16 Countries
Who
United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI)
What
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project
When
September 2014 (First report), June-September 2015 (Country reports and Synthesis)
Key
pathways to
deep decarbonization
2014 report
executive summary
The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a knowledge network comprising 16 country
research partners (China, India, USA, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Russia, Japan, Germany,
Australia, UK, Korea, France, Italy and Canada) and several partner organisations. Each DDPP country
research team develops pathways for the transition to a low-carbon energy system in that country, with
the objective of analysing the technical, economic and political aspects of the national and international
transformations compatible with the 2°C target. The network shares methods, assumptions and
findings related to deep decarbonisation.
The 2014 report by the DDPP is based on the elaboration of an illustrative pathway by the DDPP
country research partners in their respective countries, which reveals the technical challenges and
opportunities associated to deep decarbonisation. It is intended that the pathways are consistent with
global emission reductions that limit maximum temperature rise to less than 2°C. The analyses take
into account factors such as economic development and national resources, which justify different
dynamics across the set of countries. Some of the pathways have greater than 90% reductions in CO2
emissions from energy by 2050 (e.g. Canada), whilst in others emissions actually increase from current
levels by 2050 (e.g. India). Together, pathways developed by the country research partners would
achieve around 45% reductions in CO2 energy emissions by 2050, in line with the IPCC AR5 report’s
2ºC compatible scenario. However, the interim pathways do not yet achieve the full decarbonisation
needed to make staying below the 2°C limit ‘likely’ (defined as a higher than two-thirds probability
of success by the IPCC). Further work is currently being conducted by the project partners on such
pathways in order to envisage even more ambitious emissions reductions and include more detailed
economic and policy analysis.
The project has identified ‘three pillars’ for the deep decarbonisation of energy systems that are
common to all viable plans. Firstly, energy efficiency and energy conservation are vital, and large
improvements in energy efficiency can be achieved in the buildings, transport and industrial sectors.
Secondly, the decarbonisation of energy carriers (notably electricity) must be enforced by relying on
the maximum deployment of renewable energy technologies in line with the national potential of each
country, complemented by potential additional solutions such as nuclear power or carbon capture and
storage technology. Thirdly, fuel switching in end-uses must occur from high carbon fossil fuels to low/
zero carbon electricity and other low-carbon energy carriers synthesised from electricity generation
and/or sustainable biomass.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
49
CITY
Roughly 36 cities around the world have made decarbonisation targets, varying from net
zero GHGs to 100% renewable energy by 2022. We have found a varying degree of scenario
development at the city level; we have selected three cities’ scenarios, each one approaching
the mission to decarbonise from a different angle.
City
Berlin, Germany
Who
Berlin Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment
What
Climate-Neutral Berlin 2050
When
March 2014
Key
Climate-Neutral Berlin 2050 was conducted by a team led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research. It defines ‘climate-neutral’ as reducing GHG emissions sufficiently in order to keep global
warming below the dangerous threshold of 2°C. The study states that, in a world of 9 billion people by
2050, and with equal per-capita emission rights, this would mean reducing emissions to a maximum
of 2 metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person per year by 2050. Given Berlin’s current emissions this
would require emissions reductions of about 85% compared to 1990 levels by 2050.
This study presents a feasibility analysis of these emission reductions for Berlin. It looks at the current
situation, emissions reduction potential, and the measures required to achieve these reductions in
several sectors: energy supply, buildings and urban development, economy, private households and
consumption, and traffic. The study presents two alternative scenarios that could achieve the ‘climate
neutral’ goal. The two scenarios explore different economic, social and technology aspects, such as
how centralised the energy system is, how much energy and transport related behaviours change, and
the extent to which buildings are made more energy efficient.
The study concludes that Berlin can become ‘climate-neutral’ by 2050. It can reach this goal in more
than one way, although energy efficiency and a substantial increase in renewable energy technologies
will be central to all pathways. Berlin could thus develop from a sink to a source of energy production.
This transformation will, they state, stimulate the growth of value-added activities and employment
in the city.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
50
CITY
City
Copenhagen, Denmark
Who
City of Copenhagen
What
Copenhagen 2025 Climate Plan – a Green, Smart and Carbon Neutral City
When
June 2012
Key
cph
2025
climate plan
a green, smart and
carbon neutral city
The city of Copenhagen has set itself the ambitious target to become carbon neutral by 2025. Its ‘2025
Climate Plan’ describes that to achieve this target the city will need to become much more energy
efficient and divert energy production to green energy. In addition, it must produce a surplus of green
energy to offset emissions that will continue to be generated – for example, from transport.
The city has identified several major energy efficiency goals for 2025. These include a 20% reduction
in heat consumption through improved building energy efficiency, a 20% reduction in electricity
consumption by businesses, and a 10% reduction in electricity consumption by households. For energy
supply, the aim is to provide carbon neutral district heating and electricity. The energy system will
mainly be based on wind, biomass, geothermal energy and waste. Renewable electricity generation
will exceed the city’s consumption and the excess can be exported to surrounding regions. For the
transport sector, goals include 75% of all journeys being by foot, bike or public transport, 50% of all
work or school commutes being by foot or bike, and 20-30% of all light vehicles running on new fuels
such as electricity or biogas.
The report highlights that the investments required to achieve the plan give a positive economic
picture that can create significant employment opportunities. They can also make Copenhagen a more
pleasant city to live in by improving air and noise pollution and the health of inhabitants.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
51
CITY
City
Rome, Italy
Who
The City of Rome and the Jeremy Rifkin Group,
Third Industrial Revolution Global Business Roundtable
What
A Third Industrial Revolution Master Plan to Transition Rome
into the World’s First Post Carbon Biosphere City
When
2010
Key
+
-
This report presents work designed to prepare Rome to make the transition to a post-carbon Third
Industrial Revolution economy between now and 2050 and to become the first city of the Biosphere
Era. It presents a new concept of urban living which brings the city and surrounding countryside
together. The plan would remake Rome, embedding it within a surrounding biosphere park that would
provide its inhabitants with a locally sustainable economic existence far into the future.
The report describes what it calls the four pillars of the Third Industrial Revolution. These are the
technical changes that would allow Rome to become a post carbon city. They are: the expanded
generation and use of renewable energy resources, such as solar, wind, biomass, tidal and geothermal;
the use of buildings as power plants – recognising that homes, offices, schools and factories, which
today consume vast quantities of carbon producing fossil fuels, could tomorrow become renewable
energy power plants; the development of hydrogen and other energy storage technologies, which store
energy when the sun is shining or wind is blowing for use later; and a shift to smart-grids and plug-in
vehicles, developing a new energy infrastructure and transport system.
52
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
ANNEX 2
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO
THE FULL RANGE OF SCENARIOS AND INITIATIVES
FROM WHICH THE CASE STUDIES WERE CHOSEN.
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
53
GLOBAL SCENARIOS
Where
Who
What
URL
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/
jacobson/Articles/I/JDEnPolicyPt1.pdf
Global
Mark Jacobson, Stanford University &
Mark Delucchi, University of California
Providing all global energy with wind, water, and
solar power Part I & II
Global
Mark Jacobson, Stanford University
100% wind water and s unshine all-sector energy http://stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/
plans for 139 countries
Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Global
Institute for Policy Research &
Development
Report: A Solar Transition is Possible
http://tinyurl.com/qey64ud
Global
International Network for Sustainable
Energy (Inforse)
Sustainable Energy Visions - Visions for a
Renewable Energy World
http://www.inforse.org/europe/
Vision2050.htm
Global
WWF & Ecofys
The Energy Report: 100% renewable energy by
2050
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/
footprint/climate_carbon_energy/
energy_solutions22/renewable_energy/
sustainable_energy_report/
Global
Post Carbon Pathways
The One Degree War Plan
http://theclimatepsychologist.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/07/One-DegreeWar-Plan.pdf
Global
Sustainable Society Institute, University of
Melbourne
Pathways to a zero-carbon economy: Learning
from large scale de-carbonisation strategies
http://www.visionsandpathways.
com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/
Wiseman_Zero-Carbon-EconomyTransitions_290514.pdf
Global
Reiner Lemoine Institut
Global Energy Storage Demand for a 100%
Renewable Electricity Supply
http://www.researchgate.net/
publication/260043925_Global_
Energy_Storage_Demand_for_a_100_
Renewable_Electricity_Supply
Global
UK Department of Energy and Climate
Change
The Global Calculator
http://www.globalcalculator.org/
Global
Greenpeace, EREC & Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC)
The Energy [R]evolution 2012: A sustainable world
energy outlook
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/
en/campaigns/climate-change/
energyrevolution/
Global
World Bank
Decarbonizing Development - Three Steps to a
Zero-Carbon Future
http://www.worldbank.org/content/
dam/Worldbank/document/Climate/dd/
decarbonizing-development-report.pdf
Global
World Resources Institute
The Three Propositions
http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/
act-2015/three-propositions
https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/
jacobson/Articles/I/DJEnPolicyPt2.pdf
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
54
REGIONAL SCENARIOS
Where
Southeast
Asia
Who
What
URL
http://www.energyblueprint.
info/1820.0.html?&L=0%27%2Fjavascript%3AlinkTo_
UnCryptMailto%28%27nbjmup
Greenpeace Southeast Asia
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable ASEAN Energy
Outlook
Europe
Stockholm Environment Institute
http://www.sei-international.org/
Europe’s Share of the Climate Challenge: Domestic
mediamanager/documents/Publications/
Actions and International Obligations to Protect
Climate-mitigation-adaptation/europes_
the Planet
share_heaps_09.pdf.pdf
Europe
European Renewable Energy Council
(EREC)
Re-thinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy
Vision for the European Union
http://www.erec.org/media/publications/
re-thinking-2050.html
Europe
European Climate Foundation
Roadmap 2050 - 80% GHG emission reductions
by 2050
http://www.roadmap2050.eu/
Europe
European Commission
Energy Roadmap 2050
http://www.ab.gov.tr/files/ardb/evt/1_
avrupa_birligi/1_9_politikalar/1_9_6_
enerji_politikasi/com_energy_
roadmap_2050.pdf
Europe
INFORSE-Europe
A scenario for transition of the EU as a region to
100% renewable energy by 2040
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionEU27.
htm
Europe
Greenpeace
EU Energy [R]evolution - a Sustainable EU27
Energy Outlook
http://greenpeace.hu/up_
files/1278583020GP_Energy_
Revolution_2010.pdf
Europe and
North Africa
PricewaterhouseCoopers & Potsdam
Institute
100% renewable electricity: A roadmap to 2050
for Europe and North Africa
http://www.pwc.co.uk/assets/pdf/100percent-renewable-electricity.pdf
Nordic region
Nordic Energy Research & IEA
Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives Pathways to a Carbon Neutral Energy Future
http://www.iea.org/media/etp/nordic/NETP.
pdf
North-East
Asia
Lappeenranta University of Technology &
partners
North-East Asian Super Grid: Renewable Energy
Mix and Economics
http://www.researchgate.net/
publication/268743535_North-East_
Asian_Super_Grid_Renewable_Energy_
Mix_and_Economics
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
55
COUNTRY SCENARIOS
Country
Who
What
URL
Argentina
Greenpeace Argentina
Energy [R]evolution - a sustainable energy future
for Argentina
http://www.energyblueprint.
info/1370.0.html
Australia
Beyond Zero Emissions
Zero Carbon Australia
http://bze.org.au/
Belgium
Vito & Belgian Federal Planning Bureau
Towards 100% renewable energy in Belgium by
2050
http://energie.wallonie.be/servlet/
Repository/130419-backcastingfinalreport.pdf?ID=28161
Royal Government of Bhutan
A national strategy and action plan for low carbon
development
http://www.ea-energianalyse.dk/
reports/1148_bhutan_a_national_
strategy_and_action_plan_for_low_
carbon_development.pdf
Bhutan
Brazil
Greenpeace Brazil
Brazil, the Energy [R]evolution
http://www.energyblueprint.
info/1808.0.html?&L=0%27%20
and%20char%28124%29%20user%20
char%28124%29%3D0%20and%252
Chile
Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios
(MAPS)
MAPS Chile - Mitigation options for a low carbon
development
http://www.mapsprogramme.org/
wp-content/uploads/Chile-Phase-2Synthesis-of-Results_English_Final.pdf
Costa Rica
Costa Rica Climate Change Dep.
Carbon Neutral by 2021
http://www.cambioclimaticocr.
com/2012-05-22-19-47-24/
empresas-y-organizaciones-hacia-lacarbono-neutralidad-2021
Croatia
University of Zagreb
Planning for a 100% independent energy system
[in Croatia]
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
article/pii/S1359431111001463
Denmark
Danish Climate Commission
The Road to a Danish Energy System Without
Fossil Fuels
http://www.ens.dk/en/info/publications/
green-energy-road-danish-energysystem-without-fossil-fuels
Denmark
Danish Energy Agency
2020, 2035, 2050 Scenarios for energy
decarbonisation
http://www.ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/
files/energistyrelsen/Nyheder/2014/
energiscenarier_uk.pdf
Denmark
Danish Society of Engineers
The IDA Climate Plan 2050
https://ida.dk/sites/prod.ida.dk/files/
Klima%20Hovedrapport%20UK%20
-%20WEB.pdf
Denmark
Gunnar Boye Olesen, SustainableEnergy
http://www.inforse.org/europe/pdfs/
Fast Transition to Renewable Energy with Local
Vision_DK_Fast_Transtions_RE_
Integration of Large-Scale Windpower in Denmark
Denmark_article_EN_2014.pdf
Ethiopia
Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
The path to sustainable development - Ethiopia’s
Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy
http://www.uncsd2012.org/content/
documents/287CRGE%20Ethiopia%20
Green%20Economy_Brochure.pdf
European
Union
European Commission
Energy Roadmap 2050
http://www.ab.gov.tr/files/ardb/evt/1_
avrupa_birligi/1_9_politikalar/1_9_6_
enerji_politikasi/com_energy_
roadmap_2050.pdf
Germany
German Federal Environment Agency
Germany in 2050 - a greenhouse gas-neutral
country
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/
publikationen/germany-in-2050-agreenhouse-gas-neutral-country
Germany
Fraunhofer-Institut für Windenergie und
Energiesystemtechnik (IWES)
Kombikraftwerk - detailed 100% renewable
energy scenario for Germany
www.kombikraftwerk.de
Germany
WWF
Blueprint Germany – a Strategy for a Climate Safe
2050
http://www.wwf.de/fileadmin/fm-wwf/
Publikationen-PDF/blueprint_germany_
wwf.pdf
Hungary
INFORSE-Europe and the Hungarian
Environmental Education Network
A scenario for a transition of Hungary to 100%
renewable energy by 2040
http://www.inforse.org/europe/VisionHU.
htm
Hungary
Greenpeace
Progressive Energy [R]evolution Scenario
http://www.energyblueprint.
info/1398.0.html
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
56
COUNTRY SCENARIOS CONTINUED
Country
Who
What
URL
India
Debate: Policy Lessons
from Modelling Studies
Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate:
Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies
http://www.cprindia.org/research/
reports/informing-india%E2%80%99senergy-and-climate-debate-policylessons-modelling-studies
India
Greenpeace India
Energy [R]evolution: A Sustainable Energy Outlook
for India
http://www.greenpeace.org/india/en/
publications/Energy-Revolution-2ndEdition/
Ireland
University of Limerick
The first step towards a 100% renewable energy- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
system for Ireland
article/pii/S030626191000070X
Italy
Power System Scenarios and Energy
Efficiency Research Group
Scenario analysis for RES-E integration in Italy up
to 2050
http://www.susplan.eu/fileadmin/
susplan/documents/downloads/
presentations_papers/EEM11_RSE_WP2.
pdf
Italy
Greenpeace
Energy [Revolution - a sustainable Italy energy
outlook
http://www.greenpeace.org/italy/Global/
italy/report/2009/12/energy-revolutionitalia-english.pdf
Japan
Greenpeace Japan
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable
energy outlook for Japan
http://www.greenpeace.org/japan/Global/
japan/pdf/er_report.pdf
Japan
Energy Rich Japan
100% renewable energy scenario for Japan
http://www.energyrichjapan.info/
Japan
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policy
100% renewable energy scenario for Japan in
response to Fukishima disaster
http://www.isep.or.jp/wp-content/
uploads/2013/12/ISEP-BP20131205.pdf
Morrocco
World Future Council
100% Renewable Energy: Boosting Development
in Morocco
http://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/
fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/Report_
Morocco_A4_LoRes_EN.pdf
New Zealand
University of Canterbury
A 100% renewable electricity generation system
for New Zealand
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
article/pii/S0301421510001850
New Zealand
Greenpeace New Zealand
The Future is Here: New Jobs, New Prosperity and
a New Clean Economy
http://www.greenpeace.org/newzealand/en/reports/The-Future-isHere-report/
Norway
Norwegian Env. Agency
Knowledge base or low-carbon transition in
Norway
http://www.miljodirektoratet.no/
Documents/publikasjoner/M287/M287.
pdf
Poland
Greenpeace Poland
Energy [R]evolution: a sustainable Poland energy
outlook
http://www.energyblueprint.
info/1821.0.html
Portugal
University of Zagreb & Instituto Superior
Técnico, Lisbon
How to achieve a 100% RES electricity supply for
Portugal?
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/
article/pii/S0306261910003703
Scotland
WWF Scotland
Pathways to Power: Scotland’s route to clean,
renewable, secure electricity by 2030
http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/
pathwaystopower.pdf?_ga=1.125625290
.1566034880.1420744598
Greenpeace
The Advanced Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable
Energy Outlook for South Africa
http://www.energyblueprint.info/1341.0.html?&L=1252520%2Fjavascript%3AlinkTo_UnCryptMailto%28%27nbjmup
The Energy [R]evolution scenario for Korea
http://www.energyblueprint.
info/1410.0.html?&L=0%27%20
and%20char%28124%29%20user%20
char%28124%29
Sweden - an emissions-neutral country by 2050
http://www.naturvardsverket.se/en/
Environmental-objectives-andcooperation/Swedish-environmentalwork/Work-areas/Climate/
South Africa
South Korea
Sweden
Greenpeace
Gov. Offices of Sweden
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
57
COUNTRY SCENARIOS CONTINUED
Country
Who
What
URL
Sweden
IVL Swedish Env. Research Institute &
WWF
Energy Scenario for Sweden 2050 Based on
Renewable Energy Technologies and Sources
http://www.wwf.se/source.php/1409709/
Energy%20Scenario%20for%20
Sweden%202050_bakgrundsrapport%20
IVL_sep%202011.pdf
United
Kingdom
Centre for Alternative Technology
Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future
http://zerocarbonbritain.org/
United
Kingdom
UK Department of Energy and Climate
Change
The UK 2050 Calculator
https://www.gov.uk/2050-pathwaysanalysis
United
Kingdom
WWF UK
Positive Energy: how renewable electricity can
transform the UK by 2030
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/
footprint/climate_carbon_energy/
energy_solutions22/renewable_energy/
sustainable_energy_report/
United
Kingdom
Friends of the Earth
A plan for Clean British Energy: Powering the UK
with renewables – and without nuclear
http://www.foe.co.uk/sites/default/files/
downloads/plan_cbe_report.pdf
United
States
The Solutions Project
100% Wind, Water and Sunlight Energy Plans for
the 50 United States
http://thesolutionsproject.org/
United
States
Greenpeace International
Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable USA energy
outlook
http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/
en/media-center/reports/energyrevolution-2014/
United
States
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Renewable Electricity Futures Study
http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/
Various
UN SDS Network & IDDRI
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project
http://unsdsn.org/what-we-do/deepdecarbonization-pathways/
Various
INFORSE
100% renewable energy scenarios for Belarus,
Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania, Russia, Slovakia and Ukrai
http://www.inforse.org/europe/Vision2050
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
58
CITY SCENARIOS
City
Who
What
URL
Berlin,
Germany
Berlin Senate
Climate-Neutral Berlin 2050
http://www.stadtentwicklung.berlin.de/
umwelt/klimaschutz/studie_klimaneutrales_
berlin/download/Machbarkeitsstudie_
Berlin2050_EN.pdf
Christchurch,
New Zealand
University of Auckland
Zero Carbon Christchurch
https://futurechristchurch.wordpress.
com/2012/08/10/zero-carbon-chch/
Copenhagen,
Denmark
City of Copenhagen
Copenhagen 2025 Climate Plan – a Green, Smart and http://www.sharingcopenhagen.dk/
Carbon Neutral City
media/701521/Climate-Plan-2025.pdf
Copenhagen,
Denmark
Sustainia Copenhagen
Carbon neutral Copenhagen by 2025
http://www.sustainia.me/wp-content/
uploads/2012/06/CPH-2025.pdf
Frankfurt,
Germany
Stadt Frankfurt am Main
Master Plan 100% Climate Frankfurt
http://www.masterplan100.de/home/
Frederikshavn,
Denmark
Energy City Frederikshavn
Frederikshavn aiming at 100 Per cent Renewable
Energy
http://www.energy-cities.eu/
db/Frederikshavn_100perCent_
renewable_2008_en.pdf
Limerick,
Ireland
Limerick - Clare
Limerick Clare Energy Plan: Climate Change Strategy
http://vbn.aau.dk/en/publications/limerickclare-energy-plan%28cfff4008-799140e1-9a4a-8bb18e604aad%29.html
Malmo,
Sweden
City of Malmö & IRENA
Climate neutral and all municipal operations run on
100% Renewable Energy by 2030
http://tinyurl.com/pt3ytdq
Melbourne,
Australia
City of Melbourne
Zero Net Emissions by 2020
http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/
Sustainability/CouncilActions/Documents/
zero_net_emissions_update_2014.pdf
Minnesota,
United States
Renewable Minnesota - Institute
for Energy and Environmental
Research
A technical and economic analysis of a 100%
renewable energy-based electricity system for Utah.
http://ieer.org/wp/wp-content/
uploads/2012/04/eUtahBluePrint_2010.pdf
Munich,
Germany
Wuppertal Institut
Carbon free Munich
http://wupperinst.org/uploads/tx_
wupperinst/Carbon_Free_Munich.pdf
Rome, Italy
City of Rome and
the Jeremy Rifkin Group
A Third Industrial Revolution Master Plan to Transition
Rome into the World's First Post Carbon Biosphere
City
http://www.energy-cities.eu/db/roma_
climate_change_master_plan_jeremy_
rifkin_group_2010_en.pdf
WHO’S GETTING READY FOR ZERO?
59
CITY SCENARIOS CONTINUED
City
Who
What
URL
Rotterdam,
Netherlands
Rotterdam Climate Initiative
The World Capital of CO2 - free energy
http://www.rotterdamclimateinitiative.nl/
documents/021ProgRCIEngherdr.pdf
Sonderborg,
Denmark
Zero Carbon Sønderborg
‘ProjectZero’ - creating a Zero Carbon Sonderborg by
2029.
http://brightgreenbusiness.com/
Vancouver,
Canada
City of Vancouver
Greenest City 2020 Action Plan - plan to become
greenest city in the world
http://vancouver.ca/green-vancouver/
greenest-city-2020-action-plan.aspx
Various,
Australia
Visions and Pathways
Visions, Scenarios and Pathways for Low-Carbon
Resilient Futures in Australian Cities
http://www.visionsandpathways.com/
Various,
Denmark
Danish Energy Agency
Low Carbon & New Energy Cities in Denmark
http://www.cnrec.org.cn/english/
publication/2014-09-26-447.html
Various, Global
Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance
A collaboration of international cities committed to
achieving aggressive long-term carbon reduction goals.
http://usdn.org/public/Carbon-NeutralCities.html
100% Renewable Energy and Beyond for Cities
http://www.worldfuturecouncil.org/
fileadmin/user_upload/PDF/100__
renewable_energy_for_citys-for_web.
pdf
http://www.vaxjo.se/-/Invanare/Otherlanguages/Other-languages/Engelska-English1/Sustainable-development/
Fossil-Fuel-Free-Vaxjo/
Various, Global
World Future Council
Växjö, Sweden
Växjö Kommun
Fossil Fuel Free Växjö
Yokohama,
Japan
City of Yokohama
http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/tiiki/
Achieving a City-wide Zero-carbon Lifestyle by Utilizing
kankyo/seminar2008/10yokohama.
the Strength of its Residents
english.pdf
ZERO
CARBON
BRITA N