Information Meeting:
Baseline Project with Camden County
Anna Kovalyova
Program Coordinator
Community Policy Analysis Center
University of Missouri-Columbia
Proposed Agenda
• Welcome and Introductions
• Overview of the Community Policy Analysis
Center (CPAC) and University Extension
• Anticipated results from a baseline study with
Camden County
• The role of the Community Advisory Panel in a
baseline study
The Community Policy Analysis Center
Mission: Provide research,
outreach and training that support
improved policy decisions in
Missouri communities.
Objectives for Community Decision
Support
Enhanced quality of community information
Improved access to information for citizens
Broader participation in decision making
Improved capacity for what-if analysis
Key Questions in Missouri Communities
Something just happened in our
community? What does it mean?
How important is this industry to our
economy?
What should we do to improve the quality
of life in our community?
CPAC Products
Community Baseline Studies
Economic Impact
Analysis
Sector Analysis
How CPAC Works with Communities
The project is community-directed
CPAC’s objective is decision support
A CPAC project is a partnership
Issues for the Future
What are issues that Camden County is
facing?
What decisions need to be made?
How are recent economic and
demographic trends affecting Camden
County?
A Community Baseline Study
Ten-year forecasts of key
economic, socio-demographic and
fiscal variables
Assumes no changes in policy or
economic trends in the community
Baseline results can be used to
answer what-if types of questions
A Community Baseline Study Timeline
Draws on knowledge of the
Community Advisory Panel about
local conditions and trends
Key growth rates that guide the
model are decided by the
Community Advisory Panel
A baseline study is generally a four
to six month process
Role of the Community Advisory Panel
Represent the community
Guide the development of the baseline
(data interpolation vs. extrapolation)
Identify and prioritize the issues
Develop “what-if” scenarios
Interpret study results
Panel Chairperson
Facilitate Advisory Panel
Meetings
Liaison to CPAC
Public Voice of the
Advisory Panel
Heart of the Model
•Labor Market Relationships
– Demand for workers (local and nearby)
– Supply of workers (local and nearby)
•Identity:
Labor Force  Employment (local jobs in the county) + Unemployment
+ Outcommuters – Incommuters;
•Local Government Data
– Costs of providing public services
– Demand for public services
– Size of the local tax base
Definitions
•External Labor Force:
- Labor Force in Surrounding/Adjacent Counties
•External Employment:
- Employment in Surrounding/Adjacent Counties
•Incommuters:
- People who come to work from outside the county boundaries;
•Outcommuters :
- People who reside in the county, but travel to work outside the
county boundaries.
Information Needed for the Show Me Model
- Base year: usually the most recent year
- To depict historic trend: data for 1990 - base year
•County Labor Market Data
– Majority of data comes from U.S. Bureau of Census
– Labor Force, Unemployment, Employment comes from
Missouri Department for Employment Services
– School Enrollment comes from Missouri State Board of
Education
– In-Commuting Data: projected by CPAC, based on
1990 Census Data
Information Needed for the Show Me Model
•County Fiscal Data
– County financial statements for the base year
– County financial statements for 1990-base
year are used to depict the historic trend
– Property valuation – from Missouri State Tax
Commission
– Retail Sales – from Missouri Department of
Revenue
Information Needed for the Show Me Model
•Advisory Panel Selects Growth Rates for:
–Employment in the County
–Per capita income in the County
–Labor Force in Surrounding Counties
–Employment in Surrounding Counties
–These independent variables are used to “shock”
the model and guide the forecasts
How the Show Me Model Works
• There is a relationship between the forecasted
variables and the independent variables
• Economic theory tells us how variables are related
• Relationships are statistically estimated with a
cross-sectional model
–Models the relationships across space
–Unit of analysis: Missouri counties
How the Show Me Model Works
The growth rates chosen by the
Advisory Panel are used to calculate
the growth in employment, income,
external labor force and external
employment
Other variables are “functions” of these
independent variables – changes in the
independent variables are used to
project other variables
Now What?
Applications of a Baseline
In generating the baseline, the model
assumes there are no changes in policies
or economic conditions
We can also use the model to analyze
the impacts of potential changes in
policies or economic conditions:
• A new local employer
• Change in the local tax rate
• Impacts of a specific industry
How to conduct an impact analysis
for a community
CPAC will provide a Questionnaire to
determine direct impacts
Work with people knowledgeable about the
scenario to complete the questionnaire
CPAC will project the impacts of the scenario
and write a report in collaboration with the
Advisory Panel
Example of Baseline-Scenario Comparison
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Questions?