ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Introduction to the ESA Space
Weather Pilot Project
A. Hilgers, A. Glover, E. Daly
Space Environments and Effects Analysis Section,
ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherlands
C. de Matos and F. Ongaro
EUI-A, ESA-HQ, Paris
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Historical Background of ESA involvement
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1996: ESA Round Table on Space Weather.
1998: FMI report on space weather capabilities in Europe.
1998: First ESA Space Weather Workshop.
1999-2001: ESA feasibility study on a Space Weather Programme.
2000: Setting up of Space Weather Working Team.
2001: Submission of programme initiative to ESA management
board =>Rejected (Quantification of value of service for
sustainability and need more scientific basis).
2001: Start preparation of ESA-PP, COST724, and other…
2003: ESA SW pilot-project formally starts.
2003: COST 724 starts.
2005: COST 296 starts (follows from COST 271).
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
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Where we stand in Nov 2005
Overall European harmonisation/coordination: SWWT
Organisation of the scientific community (through COST
296, COST724).
Coordinated service investigation/evaluation in Europe SWENET (Starts: April 2003 – ends: Mars 2006).
International relations: ISES, CAWSES, COSPAR PSW &
PRB, IHY, ILWS.
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Coordinated Service Investigation
• Space Weather European Network (SWENET):
– Network of 26 service development activities (SDAs):
16 ESA co-funded SDA applications activities began on
1st April 2003 + 10 independently funded activities.
– Common support (portal, service provision, data
access), evaluation method, modelling.
• Independent benefit assessment is establishing the
economic and other benefits of the services (Contract with
SEA).
• Investigation of future sustainable structure for service
provision.
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
SWENET as a sample for study
• Represents ~5 M€ investment incl. 2 M € from
ESA GSP.
• Co-funding (approx. 3 M€) made available to this
project by users or developers from 9 member
states or from other ESA programme.
• Questions to address:
– users (and their requirements)?
– current realistic(sustainable) services?
– Need for specific space elements?
– Value of coordinated approach?
– Overall organisation requirements?
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Users and user domains
(in EUROPE)
• Broad community of users (incl.
military).
• About 90% of the pilot project
activities addressed three main
types of effects which are related
to:
1. External geomagnetic field
variation
2. Ionospheric perturbations of
radio signal (comms, nav).
3. Direct space environment
effects on spacecraft.
• Some SDA’s are general purpose
services with broad class of users
(usually solar/indices,…).
Industry
National Agencies
Public & Tourism
Scientific Institutes
Military
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
External geomagnetism in Europe
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Users: survey, electric power, pipe-line, military.
SW Service: ~? M€; ground based magnetometers + ACE.
10 Y Market trend: remains of same order.
Need of space measurements:
– may be not for ground effects,
– speculative for global scale and/or forecast service,
– major need for Solar wind monitoring.
• => Case for a SW monitor?
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Ionospheric effects on radio signal in
Europe
• Users: HF users (airlines, military and civilian security
applications) and GPS single frequency (~all) and dual
frequency (geological surveying for prospecting, military,
off-shore drilling in very deep sea, airlines for airport
approach).
• SW Service: ~? M€/Y, Ionosonde, dual frequency
networks.
• 10 Y Market Trend: significant growth (Galileo, +down
stream growth).
• Need of space measurements:
– would allow global coverage and (possibly) forecast.
• => Case for a LEO constellation?
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Direct effects on space systems in
Europe
• Users: spacecraft designers, operators, downstream users,
manned space flight.
• SW Service: ~? M€/Y; using US NOAA, NASA data.
• 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (new
techno, manned space flight).
• Need for space measurements:
– major (no serious alternative).
• => Case for monitoring in critical regions?- Very likely.
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Scientific monitoring
• Users: All (including scientific communities).
• SW Service: ~? M€/Y; using local and world wide
resources (e.g., geomag and solar indices or recurrent
features, e.g, CME).
• 10 Y Market Trend: might be significant growth (sw
market, new challenges: global change, space pollution,
etc…).
• Need for space measurements:
– major for L1 and other critical region/components.
• => Case for: SW L1 monitor, CME, EUV, X, Rad
Belt,etc… ?
ESA SW Pilot Project – November 2005
Organisation of the Review/Discussion
• Today:
– SWENET infrastructure (P. Beltrami, Eta-max)
– Ionospheric effects session (reporter: L. Cander, RAL).
– Effects on aircraft and spacecraft (reporter: A. Hilgers, ESA)
– Ground effects (reporter: R. Pirjola, FMI & CNS).
– Solar monitoring and magnetic indices (reporter: M. Messeroti,
TSO).
– Cost/benefit analysis study status (T. Woodward, SEA)
• All the week: Scientific sessions and Business meetings (COST,
SWWT-TWG)
• Friday: Agency activities – Round table – SWWT meeting.