FAPESP Climate Change Program Workshop 2011
Land Use Change in Amazonia:
Institutional analysis and
modeling at multiple temporal
and spatial scales
Gilberto Câmara, Ana Aguiar, Roberto Araújo,
Patrícia Pinho, Luciano Dutra, Corina Freitas,
Sidnei Sant’Anna, Leila Fonseca, Isabel Escada,
Silvana Amaral, Pedro Andrade-Neto
(Earth System Science Centre, INPE)
source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)
Nature, 29 July 2010
Nature, 29 July 2010
Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land
change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere?
Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions
for other countries
Where will large-scale land change take place?
source: The Economist
Forests and food production: potential conflicts
Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions
“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation
by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in
Copenhagen COP-15)
Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil
Avoided def Brazil
2005-2020
4,9 Gt CO2eq
EU-15 reduction 2005-2020
20% of 1990 levels
7,7 Gt CO2eq
From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3
of the total proposed EU-15 cuts
What caused the reduction of deforestation in
Amazonia?
Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional
arrangments?
Policing actions: illegal wood seizure
50% of operations in 2% of the area
Markets have a positive rôle
Working hypothesis
The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that
influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation.
Tragedy of the Commons?
Everybody’s property is nobody’s property (Hardin)
Is the tragedy of the commons inevitable?
Experiments show that cooperation emerges if virtuous
interactions exist
source: Novak, May and Sigmund (Scientific American, 1995)
Common pool resources (Elinor Ostrom)
The ultimate common pool resource
Governing the commons:
institutional arrangments
[Ostrom, Science, 2005]
Elinor Ostrom on governing the commons
“Neither the state nor the market is uniformly successful in
enabling individuals to sustain long-term, productive use of
natural resource systems.”
What are institutional arrangements?
International agencies and agreements
International
National Govt.
National
NGOs
Regional
Local and
state
Govts.
Sub-regional
NGOs
Local
Local
organizations
Araújo and Aguiar , forthcoming
Agreements between private and public organizations about
rules of use of common pool resources.
Institutional analysis in Amazonia
Identify different agents and try to model their actions
Field work
Urban networks
Land change patterns
Land change models
Amazonia is a mosaic of land units
Terras Indígenas
UC Proteção Integral
PA (Projeto de Assentamento)
PAE (Proj. Assentamento Agro-extrativista)
PDS (Projeto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável)
PAC (Projeto de Assentamento Coletivo)
Current situation in Amazonia
Tension between different ways of access to market and
natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and
public/collective) and political forces.
Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming)
INPE/PRODES 2005:
Deforestation
Forest
Non-forest vegeration
Clouds/no data
Brazilian Amazonia
Baixo Amazonas
Transamazônica
PA 279
BR 163
Pará State
Lower Amazonas and Transamazônica
INCRA: 207 Land Settlements
SFB: National forests concession and common land management
Érika Saito
Mapping trajectories of change
Mapas de Padrões
2006
Trajetórias
Landscape model: different rules for two main
types of agents
Beef and milk
market chain model
Land use
change model
Small
farmers
Medium
and large
farmers
Landscape
metrics
model
Pasture
degradation
model
Several workshops to define model rules and variables
Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different
partitions which also change in time
SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU - 2006
FRONT
FRENTE
MIDDLE
MEIO
BACK
RETAGUARDA
Forest
River
Deforest
Not Forest
Modeling results
97 to 2006
Observed
97 to 2006