Incorrect Beliefs
Most Canadians buy lottery tickets and gamble responsibly (they set limits on money spent
depending on what they can afford to lose). However, a small percentage of people gamble
excessively because they don’t understand the nature of random chance (past lottery
numbers provide no information about the next event) or the odds of winning.
• When asked if a lottery ticket with a random series of numbers (12-5-23-7 vs.1-2-3-4) has a
better chance of winning, 48.5% of adults did not know that this statement was wrong (or
said it was true).
• In fact, a ticket that looks more random does not have an advantage.
• When asked if staying at the same slot machine improves chances of winning, nearly half of
adults felt this statement was true or said they did not know.
• The odds of winning never improve no matter how long you stay at a slot machine.
• On the positive side, 94.4% of adults understand that they have a better chance of getting
rich by working hard than by buying a lottery ticket.1
Odds
• The probability of winning the Lotto 6/49 is one in 14 million.2
• The chance of dying falling down the stairs or steps is one in 6,330.3
• The following example gives you an idea what one in 14 million looks like:
In 2004, there were approximately one million phone numbers in the Toronto White Pages.
Imagine a stack of 14 phone books from different cities about the size of the Toronto White
Pages. You really need to call someone and their number is in one of those phone books,
but you don’t know their name or what city they live in. Winning the lottery is like randomly
selecting one phone number from those 14 phone books, calling it and reaching the exact
person you needed to speak to. 4
• You might want to think about working hard toward a successful career rather than trying
your luck with a lottery ticket. It’s easy to see just how slim your chances are of winning
when you compare the odds to the following. The probability of:
- becoming a police officer in Canada is one in 327 5
- becoming a doctor in Ontario is one in 350 5
- earning more than $250,000 per year is one in 118 6
- earning more than $100,000 per year is one in 15 6
- completing a university degree is one in 75.6
References
1. Turner, N.E., Wiebe, J., Falkowski-Ham, A., Kelly, J. & Skinner, W. (2005, June). Public awareness of responsible
gambling and gambling behaviours in Ontario. International Gambling Studies, 5 (1), 95–112.
2. Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation. (2009). Lotto Games: Lotto 6/49.
3. British Columbia Partnership for Responsible Gambling. (n.d.). Odds of winning.
4. Estimates computed by Nigel E. Turner, PhD, in 2004.
5. Estimates computed by Nigel E. Turner, PhD, based on data obtained from Statistics Canada.
6. Estimates computed by Nigel E. Turner, PhD, based on adult working population divided by association membership
numbers.
Updated August 2009