Governance, Fragility and Conflict Assessments
in German Development Cooperation
DeLoG Annual Meeting 2017
Thematic session 2: Decentralization and local governance in fragile contexts
(Working group 3, 17 May 2017)
Kerstin Remke
Division 301: Sectoral and thematic policies; Governance, Democracy; Rule of Law
bmz.de
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Overview of analytical tools
Early Crisis Warning
Politico-Economic Analysis
Governance „Catalogue of Criteria“
Potential challenges
bmz.de
1. Overview of analytical instruments
Governance
Assessment
Peace and Conflict
Assessment
Peace and Conflict
Assessments (PCA)
Strategic decisions;
Country and
Portfolio
Management
GIZ/KfW
Crisis Early
Warning
• Escalation potential
(long-term trends)
External / BMZ
BMZ Sectoral Strategy:
“Development for Peace and Security” (2013)
bmz.de
PoliticoEconomic
Analysis
(PEA)
„Catalogue of
Criteria“
•
•
Assessment matrix
(„country types“)
Statehood deficits
External
BMZ
BMZ Sectoral Strategies:
Development-Oriented Transformation (2007),
Promotion of Good Governance (2009)
2. Crisis Early Warning
• Externally commissioned on a yearly basis  finalized inhouse, management tool
• Analysis of crisis and conflict potential (36 indicators):
(A) structural conflict factors, (B) conflict-prone
processes, (C) strategies of conflict management and use
of force, (D) assessment of conflict phase
• Aim: identify countries with need for conflict prevention

• Direct implications for “yellow” and “red” countries
(e.g. obligatory Peace and Conflict Assessment (PCA);
elaboration of peacebuilding needs in strategic
documents)
bmz.de
3. Politico-Economic Analysis (PEA/”PÖK”)
• Externally commissioned (yearly); independent governance
assessments (no direct management implications!)
• Country-specific studies assessing actors and institutions with
their power- and conflict patterns:
1: Governance-Performance, development orientation and reform
requirements
Sustainable policy design; Human Rights; Democracy/rule of law; Capacity
and transparency; Cooperative stance within the international community)
2: Patterns of power and legitimacy
Drivers and spoilers of change; Power resources; Legitimacy and
functionality
3: Power – and conflict patterns
Escalation potential and structure of conflicts; Actors and affected groups
of violence and conflict; Roots and dynamics of violence and conflict;
Potential for civil conflict management; Peace and security needs
4: Outlook
Evolving scenarios
bmz.de
4. Governance “Catalogue of Criteria”
Sources
Analysis
and
Assessment
Process
External indexes &
reports
(country specific)
Plausibility
check
(sectoral dep’t)
Externally Commissioned
studies (GIGA)
Crisis early
warning
PEA / “PÖK”
Internal information
Embassy
reports
“Catalogue of Criteria”
annual qualitative & quantitative assessment of
partner countries:
 development orientation
 governance level
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Sustainable policy design
Human rights
Democracy and the rule of law
Capacity and transparency
Cooperative stance within int’l community
HR status
reports
Internal
Discussion and
comments
(country dep’t)
Assessment results (country and regional reports) & generic recommendations
(1) “country types” (matrix)
Utilization
(Aim)
bmz.de
(2) Analysis of statehood deficits (fragility)
Policy conclusions (country departments)  basis for integrated budget planning, country
strategies, portfolio steering and political dialogue
4.1 “Catalogue of Criteria”: country types
• Based on quantitative assessment of governance level
(average of 35 questions; scale 1-5) and development
orientation (+/o/-)
• Generic recommendations for action given according to
country type
high governance
level: 3,5 – 5,0
medium
governance
level: 2,5 - 3,5
Low governance
level: 1,0 – 2,5
“transitional
states”
“very low
performer”
no development
orientation
bmz.de
“low
performer”
low
development
orientation
“good (enough)
performer”
“developmental –
low governance
states”
Development oriented
4.2 “Catalogue of Criteria“: statehood deficits
• Underlying concept (DIE/GDI): fragile statehood as deficiencies in one
or more of the core functions of the state (authority, legitimacy and
capacity)
• Analysis of deficits based on quantitative assessment of selected
questions for each dimension (since 2016)
bmz.de
5. Potential challenges
Methodology:
• National vs. local level?
• Subjective element
Practical issues:
• Limited personal capacities
• generic vs. country-specific recommendations for action?
• Difficult to share results due to security issues
bmz.de