Name: Date: Block: AP Statistics – Chapter 7 – Random Variables – Means & Variances – Pete’s Jeep Tours Activity Linear Transformations Pete’s jeep Tours offers a popular half-day trip in a tourist area. There must be at least 2 passengers for the trip to run, and the vehicle will hold up to 6 passengers. The number of passengers X on a randomly selected day has the following probability distribution. Passengers Xi 2 3 4 5 6 Probability pi 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.20 0.05 1. Using the histogram provided, estimate the mean and standard deviation. 2. Calculate and interpret the mean, variance, and standard deviation. 2X X = X = Pete charges $150 per passenger. Let C = the total amount of money that Pete colle3ct on a randomly selected trip. Because of the amount of money Peter collects from the trip is just $150 times the number of passengers, we can write C = 150X. From the probability distribution of X, we can see that the chance of having two people (X = 2) on the trip is 0.15. In that case, ($150)(2) = $300. So one possible value of C is $300, and its corresponding probability is 0.15. Passengers Ci 300 Probability pi 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.20 0.05 3. Complete the probability distribution for C = the total amount of money collected. 4. Calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation. C = 2C C = 5. What happens to the shape, center, and spread of the distribution? 6. Check the following to see if they are true. What “rules” can you determine about multiplying a random C 150 X C 150 C variable by a constant. Name: Date: Block: It costs Pete $100 to buy permits, gas, and ferry pass for each halfday trip. The amount of profit V that Pete makes from the trip is the total amount of money C that he collects from passengers minus $100. That is, V = C – 100. If Pete has only two passengers on the trip (X = 2), then C = 300 and V = 200. From the probability distribution C, the chance that this happens is 0.15. So the smallest possible value of V is $200; its corresponding probability is 0.15. Passengers Vi 200 Probability pi 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.20 0.05 7. Complete the probability distribution for V = the total amount of profit. 8. Calculate and interpret the mean and standard deviation. V2 V = V = 9. What happens to the shape, center, and spread of the distribution? 10. Check the following to see if they are true. What “rules” can you determine about multiplying a random V C 100 V C 100 variable by a constant. Pete’s sister Erin, who lives near a tourist area in another part of the country, is impressed by the success of Pete’s business. She decides to join the business, running tours on the same days as Pete in her slightly smaller vehicle, under the name Erin’s Adventures. After a year of steady bookings, Erin discovers that the number of passengers Y on her half-day tours has the following probability distribution. Passengers Yi 2 3 4 5 Probability pi 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 11. Calculate and interpret the mean, variance, and standard deviation. Y Y2 Y In this section, we learned that… 1. Adding a constant a (which could be negative) to a random variable increases (or decreases) the mean of the random variable by a, but does not affect its standard deviation or the shape of its probability distribution. 2. Multiplying a random variable by a constant b (which could be negative) multiplies the mean of the random variable by b and the standard deviation by |b| but does not change the shape of its probability distribution. 3. A linear transformation of a random variable involves adding a constant a, multiplying by a constant b, or both. If we write the linear transformation of X in the form Y = a + bX, the following about are true about Y: Shape: same as the probability distribution of X. Center: µY = a + bµX Spread: σY = |b|σX Name: Date: Block: Combing Random Variables Let X = number of passengers on Pete’s trip and Y = number of passengers on Erin’s Trip. Let T = X + Y, as before. How many total passengers T can Pete and Erin expect to have on their tours on a randomly selected day? How much variability is there in the total number of passengers who go on Pete’s and Erin’s tours on a randomly chosen day? Does the variability increase, decrease, or stay the same? Let’s think about the possible values of T = X + Y. The number of passengers X on Pete’s tour is between 2 and 6 (range of 4), and the number of passengers on Erin’s tour is between 2 and 5 (range of 3). So the total number of passengers T is between 4 and 11 (range of 7). Is it true that RangeT Range X RangeY ? That is, there is more variability in the values of T than in the values of X or Y alone. This makes sense, because the variation in X and the variation in Y both contribute to the variation in T. The only way to determine the probability for any value of T is if X and Y are independent random variables. Definition: If knowing whether any event involving X alone has occurred tells us nothing about the occurrence of any event involving Y alone, and vice versa, then X and Y are independent random variables. Probability models often assume independence when the random variables describe outcomes that appear unrelated to each other. You should always ask whether the assumption of independence seems reasonable. In our investigation, it is reasonable to assume X and Y are independent since the siblings operate their tours in different parts of the country. Let T = X + Y. Consider all possible combinations of the values of X and Y. Calculate the probability distribution for T. 4 Passengers Ti Probability pi 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0.045 0.135 0.235 0.265 0.190 0.095 0.030 0.005 12. Calculate and interpret the mean, variance, and standard deviation. T 13. Does T X Y ? 2T T Does 2T 2X Y2 ? Does T X Y ? Name: In this section, we learned that… Date: Block: If X and Y are any two random variables, then X Y X Y . If X and Y are independent random variables, then 2 2 2 X Y X Y The sum or difference of independent Normal random variables follows a Normal distribution. 14. Earlier, we defined X = the number of passengers on Pete’s trip, Y = the number of passengers on Erin’s trip, C = the amount of money that Pete collects on a randomly selected day, and G = the amount of money that Erin collects on a randomly selected day. We also found the means and standard deviations of these variables: X 3.75 X 1090 . Y 310 . Y 0.943 C 562.50 C 16350 . G 542.50 G 165.03 a. Erin charges $175 per passenger for her trip. Let G = the amount of money that she collects on a randomly selected day. Find the mean and standard deviation of G. b. Calculate the mean and the standard deviation of the total amount that Pete and Erin collect on a randomly selected day. c. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the differences D = C – G in the amounts that Pete and Erin collect on a randomly selected day
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