Theory of Change
DIY-Learn-theory-change DIYLearn
Theory of Change
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Theory of Change
Copyright © 2016 The Open University
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or utilised in any form or
by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or
otherwise, without written permission from the publisher.
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Theory of Change
Contents

Introduction

1 The purpose and benefits of a Theory of Change model

2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of Change model

3 The participatory process of identifying the Theory of
Change for a programme or idea

3.1 Working with stakeholders

4 Using assumptions to help identify key risks

Summary

Self-assessment questions (SAQs)

End of Module Quiz and Survey

References and acknowledgements
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Introduction
This module will support your understanding and use of the Theory
of Change Tool from the DIY Toolkit. You should look at the Theory
of Change template before working through the module. You will find
it helpful to have a printout of the Theory of Change template with
you while you work through this module.
The Theory of Change is a tool that helps explain the relationship
between a development problem being addressed and the
strategies used to address it, showing why and how change takes
place.
A Theory of Change can come in many different formats, but
commonly involves a diagram containing boxes and arrows laid
out to show how elements fit together, and why this arrangement
should work.
Carrying out a Theory of Change should be a collaborative and
consultative process. It connects stakeholders, clarifying a
common pathway to a shared goal, promoting understanding of
stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership among those
involved. It is also a tool to enhance accountability, explaining the
value in particular activities and so justifying the use of resources.
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A key element of the Theory of Change is the identification of
assumptions. Analysing and talking through these assumptions
can help you to identify and plan for potential risks.
This module provides an overview of the Theory of Change model
and an introduction to its value and use.
Learning outcomes
After studying this module, you should be able to:

describe the purpose and benefits of using a Theory of
Change model (SAQ 1)

identify the steps involved in reaching a goal using the
Theory of Change model (SAQ 2)

lead a participatory process of identifying the Theory of
Change for a programme or idea (SAQ 3)

recognise how identifying assumptions helps to
manage risks (SAQ 4).
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1 The purpose and benefits of a
Theory of Change model
Development is a results-driven sector. Those involved in
delivering development projects are accountable to a range of
stakeholders, including people directly affected – primary
stakeholders or beneficiaries – as well as partners, donors and
groups within their own organisations. A rigorous approach to a
development problem involves critical analysis of all of the key
steps that must take place in order to achieve the desired social
change.
The Theory of Change is termed a ‘theory’ because development
pathways are complicated and can be difficult to predict. For the
same reason, throughout this module the word ‘model’ is used to
describe the process or the tool. Through developing a Theory of
Change, you can identify and analyse a range of interrelated
elements to help ensure you are on the right path. You can also
challenge key assumptions and mitigate risks. A well-planned
Theory of Change can help ensure that the project framework is fit
for purpose and therefore more likely to lead to the desired
changes.
Critically, a Theory of Change must be the result of an effective
participatory process where stakeholders work together to define
and refine the model. The stakeholders are then more likely to own
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the result, increasing the likelihood of project success as well as
enhancing accountability.
Figure 1 summarises the key purposes and benefits of a Theory of
Change.
Figure 1: Purposes and values of a Theory of Change
Activity 1
Allow around 10-15 minutes for this activity
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Now have a closer look at the Theory of Change template used in
the DIY Toolkit. As you do so, think about a project you are familiar
with or have been involved in. What was the ultimate aim or goal of
the project? Can you briefly identify various elements of the project
design that could fit within the template?
You will work through the Theory of Change in more detail later in
the module. For now, the point of this first activity is to begin to
think about how elements of the Theory of Change are
sequentially linked. Long-term change is the result of a sequence
of steps. Each step involves assumptions about people’s
behaviours and motivations as well as external factors that may be
beyond the control of stakeholders.
Note your thoughts in the box below.
Provide your answer...
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2 Reaching a goal using the Theory of
Change model
This section will take you through the Theory of Change model
using a development example – the problem of high maternal
mortality (deaths of women in childbirth) in sub-Saharan Africa.
The specific challenges are that expectant mothers often do not
have access to specialist obstetric care facilities and deliver their
babies at home without specialist care or in facilities without
trained staff or adequate equipment. Where adequate facilities do
exist, women may be unaware of the benefits of using them.
Access to specialist care during delivery can therefore relate both
to availability and awareness.
Maternal mortality was addressed in Millennium Development Goal
5 (MDG5) (United Nations, n.d.) and is now part of Sustainable
Development Goal 5: ‘Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing
for all at all ages’. The MDG5 goal (which was not met) was to
reduce by three-quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal
mortality ratio. (This is the ratio of the number of maternal deaths
during a given time period per 100,000 live births during the same
time period.)
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Note that it is important to recognise that what follows is a learning
exercise rather than a Theory of Change process, which must, by
definition, involve other stakeholders.
Now refer to the Theory of Change template in the DIY toolkit.
Starting on the left-hand side of the template, you enter the
problem you are trying to solve. In the example of maternal
mortality, this is poor access to, or awareness of, obstetric care
facilities, insufficient trained staff and inadequate equipment in
healthcare facilities.
Moving to the right on the template, you would then identify the key
audience. In this example, there are two key audiences. The first is
women of childbearing age. The second is the health workers
involved in childbirth, from traditional birth attendants through to
midwives in healthcare facilities.
In the next box you should detail the entry point for reaching the
key audiences. In this example, this is village health workers (who
can reach women of childbearing age as well as traditional birth
attendants) and district-level health officers (who are responsible
for the training of healthcare facility staff as well as the provision of
equipment).
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Moving further to the right you should now enter the steps needed
to bring about the change. In this example, these steps involve
training of midwives and traditional birth attendants, improved
equipment and facilities, and raising awareness among women of
childbearing age to know when to seek assistance and deliver their
baby in a healthcare facility.
Of the next three columns on the right, it is often the longer-term
goal that is quite clear and implicit in the identified problem.
Activity 2
Allow around 5 minutes for this activity
Can you identify the longer-term goal in the example of maternal
mortality?
Provide your answer...
View discussion - Activity 2
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You may have recognised that the longer-term goal is not
necessarily the same as the direct output (or measurable effect) of
the work. In this example, the measurable effects are increased
awareness among women of childbearing age of the benefits of
delivering their babies in a healthcare facility, improved knowledge
and skills of midwives and traditional birth attendants, and
improved provision of equipment and facilities.
The wider benefits, or outcomes of the intervention, are that more
women have better-quality, specialist healthcare during childbirth.
The logic is that if women are more aware of the benefits of
delivering their babies in healthcare facilities, and if health workers
are better trained and have better equipment, then more women
receive specialist care, which contributes to a reduction in
maternal mortality.
Activity 3
Allow around 15 minutes for this activity
Using the information in Section 2 and the template provided
below, try to complete a Theory of Change for the example of
maternal mortality. At this stage, don’t worry about completing the
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boxes headed ‘Key assumptions’ – you are going to work through
these in Section 4. However, if you have any ideas about these
now then do make some notes.
What is the
problem
you are
trying to
solve?
Who is your What is
key
your entry
audience?
point for
reaching
your key
audience?
What steps
are needed
to bring
about
change?
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What is the
measurable
effect of
your work?
What are
the wider
benefits of
your work?
Measurable
effect?
Wider
benefits?
Measurable
effect?
Wider
benefits?
12th May 2017
What is the
long-term
change you
see as your
goal?
Theory of Change
Key
Key
Key
Key
Key
Key
Stakeholders
assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions
View discussion - Activity 3
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3 The participatory process of
identifying the Theory of Change for a
programme or idea
The example used in Section 2 was based on personal knowledge
and experience of similar interventions. However, this was for the
purposes of introducing the tool. In practice this is not an effective
way to develop a Theory of Change. One person is unlikely to fully
understand all of the issues involved, and they would not get broad
consensus about the theory if nobody else has been involved in
developing it.
Key point
A Theory of Change model is more effective if it is the result of a
participatory process that involves as wide a range of stakeholders
as practicable.
Even when you, as a development practitioner, think you have a
clear idea of the problem and what needs to be done, it is still a
good idea to begin a participatory process that sets aside your own
preconceptions. This is because:
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1. you are bound to learn more from other stakeholders,
and
2. you want your stakeholders to own the process.
It is reasonable to identify the goal you are hoping to reach as well
as some ideas about the problem, otherwise it would be difficult to
assemble the appropriate stakeholders. It is likely that you will also
have ideas and options about how to address the problem. But
from there it is critical to develop the Theory of Change in a
participatory way.
Normally this will involve inviting stakeholders to a planning
session to develop the ideas further and agree on a way forward.
Your stakeholders may be

primary: those directly affected by the intervention
being planned, or

secondary: those affected indirectly.
Activity 4
Allow around 5 minutes for this activity
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The Theory of Change used in Section 2 identifies two key
audiences and mentions other groups but does not list possible
stakeholders. Can you list groups or individuals that you would
consider as primary and secondary stakeholders who could be
part of a participatory process of developing the project further,
including defining the Theory of Change?
Use the text boxes below to create your two lists.
Primary stakeholders
Provide your answer...
Secondary stakeholders
Provide your answer...
View discussion - Untitled part
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3.1 Working with stakeholders
It is not a straightforward process to identify stakeholders, let alone
gather so many together. Usually you will have to make
compromises. It is important to consult your key partners, such as
the district health officers in this case, to help identify and invite
your other potential stakeholders. You need also to consider the
total number of participants. Aim for no more than about 20. With
more than this it becomes difficult to ensure effective participation.
It is important to do some thorough research prior to gathering
your stakeholders. Presenting the information that is available on
the identified problem will help to set the scene (e.g. a map of
healthcare facilities, data on the distribution of health workers, and
details of other interventions that are currently taking place or
planned). A summary of evidence in favour of possible
interventions (steps needed to bring about change) can also be
useful as you move through the model.
When you hold your workshop, you can discuss the problem with
stakeholders and see if there is broad agreement about the way
the problem has been identified. You may find it useful to review
the Causes Diagram in the DIY toolkit. This can help to build a
shared understanding about the problem, its effects and possible
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solutions. From there, you could break into small groups and ask
each group to complete the section in the Theory of Change on
identifying the key audience. You could then ask a representative
from each small group to present back to the whole group and
discuss any variations that have arisen.
The next step would be to try to narrow down the options and seek
agreement, perhaps using a democratic process, voting from a
choice of options (Figure 2). You could have a master version of
the template on the wall that you complete as you gain consensus,
then moving on to the next section to repeat the process. What
arises in later sections may cause you to challenge what has been
discussed in previous sections, so the process is likely to be
iterative.
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Figure 2: Using group discussions to gain broad consensus (Theory of
Change workshop, Kathmandu, November 2015)
Activity 5
Allow around 10-15 minutes for this activity
Imagine that you are going to facilitate a Theory of Change
workshop. You have about 20 stakeholders coming to your
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workshop. Develop an outline agenda for the day and type it in the
box below.
Provide your answer...
View discussion - Activity 5
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4 Using assumptions to help identify
key risks
At the bottom of each column of the DIY Theory of Change
template is a box labelled ‘Key assumptions’. Assumptions help to
explain the Theory of Change process and the connections
between the measurable effects, wider benefits and the longerterm goal, as well as how and why proposed activities are
expected to bring these changes about.
Assumptions are often taken for granted and may be based on
opinions or beliefs. However, they can also be founded on
research or best practice. Assumptions can help to catalyse a
discussion about critical questions and lead to consensus among
stakeholders, strengthening the case for the pathway selected.
Figure 3: Challenging assumptions can help avoid mistakes
Assumptions that turn out to be incorrect can lead to mistakes
(Figure 3). It is therefore very important in developing a Theory of
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Change that you identify, analyse and challenge assumptions with
your stakeholders. This will lead to increased understanding and a
process of refining both assumptions and other elements of the
theoretical framework.
Case Study 1: The problems with
assumptions
Grace works on a livelihoods project in Malawi funded by
development partners. The problem being addressed is high levels
of youth unemployment, so the target group is ‘out-of-school
youths’. However, there are several assumptions underlying this
definition. Grace summarises some of these below together with
their associated problems.
Assumption
Problem
Youths belong to an The definition of youth is variable. In Malawi it includes
accepted age group. everyone between the ages of 10 and 35. However, the project
may not be aimed at everyone in this age range. Also, there is
an assumption that everyone can identify his or her own age,
which is not always the case.
Out-of-school
youths are in need
of support.
Some young people may have opted out of school and started
enterprises or are in gainful employment.
Out-of-school
youths are beyond
Out-of-school youths can be of school age (see above). In
many countries, including Malawi, not all children enrol in, or
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school age.
complete, school. Sometimes children do not attend because
they are unable to afford school fees, or they are required to
help in the home.
Levels of youth
unemployment are
known.
Unemployment is not always easy to define and measure.
Youths may be involved in some kind of economic activity
while still not fully or gainfully employed. In many cases
systems may not be adequate to accurately measure
unemployment.
Each one of Grace’s assumptions (and you may have thought of
more) could lead to discussion and debate among stakeholders.
Within a Theory of Change process, this discussion, and
subsequent refining/redefining, can contribute to a theoretical
framework that more accurately reflects the reality of a situation.
If you proceed without working through assumptions you increase
the likelihood of encountering unforeseen difficulties along the
way. Building on the example above, if Grace had not adequately
defined ‘youths’ before promoting the project in the community
there could have been confusion about eligibility or an inconsistent
approach adopted by partners, potentially risking the success of
the project.
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Activity 7
Allow around 10 minutes for this activity
Building on the example of maternal mortality, try to identify
possible assumptions.
View discussion - Activity 7
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Summary
This module showed you how to use a Theory of Change to help
define the relationship between a development problem and the
actions designed to address it.
A Theory of Change should be the result of an effective
participatory process, ensuring that stakeholders own the process
and the result. This enhances accountability and promotes a
greater sense of ownership, and hence increases the likelihood of
achieving the desired results.
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Self-assessment questions (SAQs)
SAQ 1
A friend of yours has never heard the term ‘Theory of Change’
before. In no more than two sentences, describe to her what the
Theory of Change is, what it is used for and why it is important.
Type your answer into the text box below.
Provide your answer...
View discussion - SAQ 1
SAQ 2
Match each of the elements of a Theory of Change below with the
element that comes after it:
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The problem
The entry point
The wider benefits
The steps needed to bring about change
The goal
The audience
SAQ 3
Identify the statements below as true or false:
a. In developing a Theory of Change it is useful to gather
stakeholders together in order to get them on board
and bring them around to your point of view.
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True
False
View discussion - Untitled part
a. Planning and preparing for a participatory process to
develop a Theory of Change will involve at least partly
identifying the goal and problem.
True
False
View discussion - Untitled part
a. If you develop a Theory of Change without a
participatory process it is unlikely to be effective.
True
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False
View discussion - Untitled part
a. A completed Theory of Change may be the result of a
democratic process.
True
False
View discussion - Untitled part
SAQ 4
In the example of maternal mortality, an assumption was made
that if women deliver their babies in a healthcare facility they will
have a better outcome (i.e. maternal mortality will be reduced).
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Can you challenge this assumption? Make a few brief notes in the
text box below.
Provide your answer...
View discussion - SAQ 4
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End of Module Quiz and Survey
1 End of Module Quiz
This quiz allows you to work towards your badge for DIY Learn:
Theory of Change. To achieve your badge, you must answer six out
of eight questions correctly.

You can try each question three times.

There is no limit to the number of attempts you can
have to take the whole quiz.

If you answer fewer than six questions correctly, you
will need to start again if you want to earn your badge.
Don’t worry if you are not successful first time, as you will be able
to attempt the quiz again in 24 hours.
When you have finished the quiz, click on ‘Next’ to review your
‘Summary of attempt’. Once you are happy with your answers,
click ‘Submit all and finish’. Then return to either the module front
page to look again at the module or the DIY Learn home page to look
at other modules you might like to study.
You need to enrol in this course before you can attempt this quiz
which you can do by clicking on the enrol button at the top of this
page.
End of module quiz
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2 End of Module Survey
Once you have finished this quiz you will be redirected back to this
page. We would really appreciate a few minutes of your time to tell
us about your experience of studying this module and how you
intend to apply the learning to your work in a short survey.
End of module survey
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References and acknowledgements
Inspired by: Nesta (2011) Theory of Change.
This Module should be cited as follows:
DIY Learn (2016) Theory of Change, Copyright © The Open
University and Nesta
Except for third party materials and otherwise stated below, this
content is made available under a Creative Commons AttributionShareAlike licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
). The material acknowledged below is Proprietary and used under
licence for this project, and not subject to the Creative Commons
Licence. This means that this material may only be used unadapted within the DIY Learn project and not in any subsequent
OER versions.
Grateful acknowledgement is made to the following sources for
permission to reproduce the material in this module:
Figure 2: courtesy © Anna Childs
United Nations (n.d.) 'We can end poverty: millennium
development goals and beyond 2015', United Nations [Online].
Available at www.un.org/millenniumgoals/maternal.shtml (Accessed
12 November 2015).
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Return to the DIY Learn home page
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Activity 2
Discussion
The longer-term goal is to reduce maternal mortality.
Back to Session 3 Activity 1
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Activity 3
Discussion
Yours may not be exactly like the example here, but did you
capture the key elements summarised in the Theory of Change
below?
What is the Who is your What is
What steps
What is the What are
Wha
the lo
problem
key
your entry are needed
measurable the wider
you are
audience?
point for
to bring
effect of
trying to
reaching
about
your work? your
solve?
your key
change?
Women of
work?
audience?
chan
you s
your
Increased
childbearing
Poor
benefits of term
age
Training of
awareness More
access to,
Village
midwives
among
women
Redu
and
health
and TBAs
women of
have
mate
awareness Healthcare
workers:
of,
workers
child
better-
mort
bearing
quality,
age
specialist
obstetric
traditional
care,
birth
insufficient attendant
Improved
District
equipment
health
and
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healthcare
Measurable
during
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Theory of Change
facilities
effect?
equipment facilities
Raising
Improved
in health
awareness
knowledge
facilities.
among
and skills
women of
of
trained
(TBAs),
staff and
midwives in
officers
childbirth
inadequate healthcare
childbearing midwives
age
and TBAs
Measurable
effect?
Improved
facilities
and
provision
of
equipment
Key
assumptions
Key
assumptions
Key
Key
assumptions assumptions
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Key
assumptions
Key
Stake
assumptions
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Theory of Change
Back to Session 3 Activity 2
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Activity 4
Untitled part
Discussion
You may have included the following:
Primary stakeholders

Beneficiaries (e.g. representatives of women of
childbearing age)

Traditional birth attendants’ and midwives’
representatives

Local traditional leaders

Youth group representatives

Disabled people’s unions

Local women’s groups
Secondary stakeholders

Head of healthcare facilities

District-level health officials

District-level government officials

National-level Ministry of Health officials, Nursing and
Midwifery Council, etc.

Donor agencies
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
Local non-governmental organisations (NGOs)

International NGOs

Secondary school representatives
In identifying stakeholders you may find it useful to use the People
and Connections Map from the DIY toolkit.
Back to Session 4 Part 3
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Activity 5
Discussion
It’s a good idea to start the day by explaining the model of the
Theory of Change to your group, perhaps using an example, and
then use small-group work (Figure 2) to complete the model for
your project stage by stage, reverting to whole-group discussions
to talk through areas of contention and to challenge assumptions.
Don’t forget to build in tea and lunch breaks to keep energy levels
high. You can also consider using energisers – short physical
activities – to keep people active, and build in competitions,
perhaps for the clearest, best-worded statements that others vote
on. You can give out prizes – tasty treats, perhaps?
Back to Session 4 Activity 2
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12th May 2017
Theory of Change
Activity 7
Discussion
Building on the Theory of Change that focused on reducing
maternal mortality and identified some assumptions that could lead
to discussion and adjustment of the theoretical framework.
What is the
Who is your What is
What steps
What is the
What are
W
problem
key
your entry
are needed
measurable
the wider
t
you are
audience?
point for
to bring
effect of
benefits of
t
trying to
reaching
about
your work?
your work?
c
solve?
your key
change?
Women of
audience?
y
Increased
More
Training of
awareness
women
childbearing
Poor
y
age
access to,
Village
midwives
among
have
R
and
health
and TBAs
women of
better-
m
child
quality,
m
bearing
specialist
age
healthcare
awareness
Health
workers
of, obstetric workers:
traditional
care,
insufficient
birth
trained staff attendants
Improved
District
equipment
health
and
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during
Measurable
12th May 2017
Theory of Change
facilities
effect?
Raising
Improved
healthcare
awareness
knowledge
facilities
among
and skills of
women of
midwives
and
(TBAs),
inadequate
midwives in
equipment
healthcare
in
facilities
officers
childbirth
childbearing and
age
traditional
birth
attendants
Measurable
effect?
Improved
provision of
equipment
and
facilities.
Key
Key
Key
Key
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Key
12th May 2017
Key
S
Theory of Change
assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions assumptions
Adequate
Everyone
Identified
Resources
Pregnant
Pregnant
staff are in
agrees on
staff are
are
women are
women are
post
the
potential
adequate to reachable
persuaded
problems
agents of
bring about
and
of the
involved
change
changes
receptive
benefits of
delivering
in a
TBAs are
Village
TBAs are
healthcare
willing to
health
willing to be
facility
participate
workers are part of
in post and
training
have time
to
participate
Back to Session 5 Activity 1
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Theory of Change
SAQ 1
Discussion
Answer: Did you use any phrases similar to those below?

It is a tool that helps define the relationship between a
development problem and the strategies used to
address it.

It is usually a diagram containing boxes and arrows
laid out to show how various elements fit together,
and why the proposed strategy should work.

It is used to explain why particular activities are
planned to take place and so justifying the use of
resources.

It connects stakeholders, clarifying a common pathway
to a shared goal, promoting understanding of
stakeholders’ roles and thus a sense of ownership
among those involved.

It includes identification of assumptions, which can
help to identify and plan for potential risks.
Back to Session 7 SAQ 1
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Theory of Change
Untitled part
Discussion
False: You want stakeholders to be part of the process and learn
together.
Back to Session 7 Part 1
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Theory of Change
Untitled part
Discussion
True: The process is likely to involve challenging assumptions
about the goal and problem, but you cannot assemble relevant
stakeholders if you do not have initial ideas about the goal and the
problem.
Back to Session 7 Part 2
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Theory of Change
Untitled part
Discussion
True: This is probably true, although you would not be the first to
try.
Back to Session 7 Part 3
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Theory of Change
Untitled part
Discussion
True: There is unlikely to be unanimous agreement at each step of
the way and a majority decision may sometimes be a feasible
outcome.
Back to Session 7 Part 4
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Theory of Change
SAQ 4
Discussion
This may seem a reasonable assumption, but whether delivery in a
healthcare facility leads to a better outcome depends on many
factors. For example:

Women may live far from healthcare facilities and the
travel may pose a risk to them.

The healthcare facility may be understaffed or staffed
by untrained personnel.

Equipment in the healthcare facility may be
inadequate.

Traditional birth attendants in village settings may be
well trained and a better option for women in some
cases.
Although many of these issues are addressed in the Theory of
Change, they may raise some questions about the timing of the
changes that need to happen. For example, improvements at the
healthcare facilities should take place before women are
encouraged to attend there to deliver their babies.
Back to Session 7 SAQ 4
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