http://www.esig.ucar.edu
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
Emergency Management Higher Education Conference
Seth McGinnis
ESIG’s Major Research Themes
1. Use and Value of Weather and
Climate Information for Decision
Making
2. The Science of Weather and Climate
Impact Assessment
3. Earth System Education:
Frameworks and Informatics
Flood Damage in the
United States
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ESIG and CU scientists evaluated
NWS flood damage estimates from
1926-2000 and developed
guidelines for using the data.
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The character of damaging floods
varies greatly from region to region.
http://www.flooddamagedata.org/
Anticipating Hurricane Damages
Analysis with extreme value theory
suggests that storms with high
damage are not as unusual as
conventional analyses would
indicate
Statistical tools and
tutorial available at:
http://www.esig.ucar.edu/extremevalues/extreme.html
Wildfire Initiative
Program development with a focus on
societal risk assessment tools, risk
communication, and education.
(In progress)
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/projects/wfc/
Superstorm ’93 Project
The 1993 East Coast extreme snow
event was well forecast, but the
impact was still extreme.
The goal of the Superstorm’93
Project is to understand why.
Disaster Dynamics
Simulations/Models
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Educational goals
– Decision making under
uncertainty
– Complex systems
– Understanding design decisions
– Fostering collaboration
– Significance of the recovery
phase
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Approach - family of educational
role-playing simulation games
– Integrated face to face and
computer tools
– Engagement of gaming
Supporting Information
Player Interactions
http://swiki.esig.ucar.edu/dd
Current Prototype
• A computer-assisted board
game (not a simulation)
• Theme: urban development
with natural hazard
• Players take on roles with
different goals
• Interaction is oriented
towards negotiation and
evaluation
• Facilitator support: record of
play, system control
Example of Play
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Evaluation
– data views, analysis, and triggered information
Proposal cards
Polling and Negotiation
Voting
4 to 6
Update
players
– computer model of growth
Random events
45 minute
– dilemmas and disasters
block of play
Special “Recovery Turn”
We Need Your Help!
Questions we need answers to:
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How much class time would you be willing to dedicate to playing a
game like this?
Would you use it during lecture or a lab?
Would it be useful for the game to be available outside of class?
What kind of computer resources are typically available to you and
your students?
In large classes, would you rather break the class up into multiple
independent games, or have the players form teams?
Is there any specific content (e.g., flooding) you want to see
included?
What kinds of support materials for the instructor do you need?
Are you interested in collaborating or beta-testing?
http://swiki.esig.ucar.edu/dd/questionnaire