Immigration:
A View of the Present and
Thoughts for the Future
Arthur Sweetman
School of Policy Studies
Queen’s University
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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Structure of this (short) presentation
I.
What’s happening?
II.
How is it happening?
III.
Can we improve what’s happening?
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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Part I - What’s happening?

Recent immigrants’ labour market outcomes
are declining relative to earlier cohorts of
immigrants

The decline is substantial and broadly based
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
0
Difference in log earnings of Montreal females age 25-59
0
1-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
years since migration
21-25
26-30
31-35
Cohort
c6670
c8690
c7175
c9195
Queen's University School of
Source: Canadian Censuses 1981 through 2001
Policy Studies
c7680
c9600
c8185
4
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
0
Difference in log earnings of females age 25-59
0
1-5
6-10
11-15
16-20
years since migration
21-25
26-30
31-35
Cohort
c6670
c8690
c7175
c9195
Queen's University School of
Source: Canadian Censuses 1981 through 2001
Policy Studies
c7680
c9600
c8185
5
Part II - How is it happening?

NOTE: Various explanations are not always
mutually exclusive
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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What do we know about the decline?

1)
2)
Analyses of labour market data suggest
At most about 1/3rd is associated with
changes in language ability (mother tongue
and official language knowledge) and region
of origin
About 1/3rd follows from a massive
reduction in the economic return to preCanadian labour market experience
(especially for those from “non-traditional”
source countries)
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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At least another 1/3rd is associated with
declining “entry conditions”
3)
Two issues here:
a)
b)
Immigrants who arrive in recessions appear to
have “economic scars” that endure
New Canadian labour market entrants, especially
males, have been experiencing declining labour
market outcomes. New immigrants, regardless of
their age at immigration, and young Canadianborn labour market entrants both face the same
challenge of declining real earnings
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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What about education?

The decline does NOT appear to be highly
related to a fall in the return to pre-Canadian
education

Immigrants receive a lower economic return
to their pre-Canadian education, but the
return has not declined much across entry
cohorts
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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
“Pre-labour market” factors are important

Researchers can “explain” some of the gross
differences in labour market outcomes by taking
individual characteristics, such as language ability,
into account

Is there a “pure” discrimination component?

Maybe “acculturation” is a better term for
some (but not all) of what we observe?
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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Earnings Gaps for Visible Minorities by
Immigrant Status
Gap Relative to Comparable Cdn
Born Non-Vismin (%)
Immigrants – by Age at Immigration
Cdn
Born
<Age13
Age20-29
Age 35-64
1
2
3
4
.
0
-5 0
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
1996
1991
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Part III - Can we improve what’s happening?
Return to “Absorptive Capacity” in the
labour market to reduce “economic scarring”
upon entry (i.e., return to an immigration
rate that varies with the business cycle; this
has nothing to do with changing the
immigration rate over the long-run)
Slightly revise “points system” for education
1)
2)
a)
b)
Skilled Trades
Post-secondary Field of Study
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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3) Intervene early since the labour market is
not very good at fixing pre-labour market
inequality
a) Quebec’s program that permits extra resources
for schools in low SES neighbourhoods is a good
example for kids (not only immigration related)
b) Seriously undertake labour market oriented
language training
c) Facilitate “upgrading” of pre-Canadian education
where required
Queen's University School of Policy Studies
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