Storm Surge Roadmap
Modeling System Information for UMAC Review
1. A comprehensive description of the current modeling system and its data assimilation
components (using existing refereed literature, preprint articles, reports, powerpoints
and model documentation).
Storm surge events have been a significant cause of many of the most costly natural disasters
in U.S. history (e.g., 2005’s Katrina and 2012’s Sandy) and remain a significant, persistent
threat to life and property. NOAA’s Storm Surge Roadmap (SSR) provides the framework for
a comprehensive strategy to holistically address the development of new technology, products
and services to meet mission needs for storm surge and coastal total water level prediction.
The SSR addresses coastal inundation from both tropical and extratropical cyclones over all
areas of U.S. interest, including impacts of storm surge on the riverine environment. A
primary goal of the SSR is to accurately assess and predict the total water level during a
coastal inundation event (as caused by surge, tides, waves, rivers, and other oceanographic
effects). This also includes accounting for uncertainty in models and observations, and
predicting it via ensembles and probabilistic forecasts.
Therefore the SSR is coordinating the development and implementation of a multi-model
ensemble for prediction of inundation caused by a storm’s total water levels. The approach
leverages two types of models: a simple model with fast numerics and reduced physics
(speedy but less accurate), and a complex model with more physics and coupling (more
accurate but costly and slow). The simple model allows one to address uncertainties,
particularly in the wind forecast, by making numerous quick simulations of possible storm
surges and combining them together to form guidance on the potential surge impact. The
complex model predicts details on the impact of a specific coupled total water prediction. The
simple model is more useful before landfall, particularly for longer lead times with greater
uncertainty, whereas the complex model is better near landfall when meteorological
uncertainties are minimized.
In the “simple model” category, NWS has relied on the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) model for decades of storm surge operations and hurricane evacuation
planning. SLOSH is highly efficient at predicting storm surges due to simplifications to the
governing shallow water equations and its efficient finite difference scheme. It is very
effective at quickly making numerous simulations of possible storm surges that are combined
into probabilistic predictions. However, its skill historically has been limited by (a) its
regional structured grids and (b) ability to combine tide, wave, and river effects for total water
prediction. Limitations imposed by the structured grid have been compensated for by the
unique shape of SLOSH grids as well as through its subgrid features. Limitations with
regards to the extent of the grid are currently being addressed by nesting the finer regional
grids within coarse broad grids (e.g. Gulf of Mexico or Eastern Atlantic). In terms of the total
water prediction goal, a tide signal has been including in SLOSH simulations, work is
underway to include wave contributions via a simplified, efficient wave model, and future
plans exist to address river inflow as a boundary condition.
In the “complex model” category, NOS implemented the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC)
coastal hydrodynamic model for storm surge predictions at NCEP with ESTOFS-Atlantic.
ADCIRC uses the fully nonlinear shallow water equations within an unstructured finite
element scheme that allows use of large scale basins with localized coastal resolution to track
storms from the open ocean to inland regions. ADCIRC is a community-based model with
extensive development and application of high resolution coupled surge/tide/wave/river
simulations for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Federal Emergency Management Agency
studies. ADCIRC, however, is a computationally costly model, which severely restricts the
number of operational ensemble members.
Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model:
The Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model was developed by the
Meteorological Development Lab (MDL) in the late 1980s. It is an extremely
computationally efficient, 2-D explicit, finite-difference model, formulated on a semistaggered Arakawa B-grid. The horizontal transport equations are solved through the
application of the Navier-Stokes momentum equations for incompressible and turbulent flow.
The SLOSH model transport equations were derived by Platzman, in which the dissipation is
determined solely by an eddy viscosity coefficient; however a bottom slip coefficient was
introduced by Jelenianski. The governing equations are integrated over the entire depth of the
water column. At every time step, the horizontal transports are solved from the pressure,
Coriolis and frictional forces. These transports generate an updated level of surge at every
model grid point. SLOSH includes a wetting-and-drying algorithm to predict inland
inundation.
SLOSH grids have different shapes (hyperbolic, elliptical or polar) that can be customized for
specific coastline geometries, with higher resolution near the coast and grid cells that
telescope outward concentrically to lower resolution offshore. This allows for greater
resolution in the area of interest. SLOSH is able to compute on the subgrid-scale level which
allows it to resolve flow through barriers, gaps, passes, over-topping of barriers, roads, levees.
● Jelesnianski, C. P., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer, 1992: SLOSH: Sea, lake, and overland
surges from hurricanes. NOAA Technical Report NWS 48, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, U. S. Department of Commerce, 71 pp.
● Forbes, C., J. Rhome, C. Mattocks, and A. Taylor, 2014: Predicting the Storm Surge
Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model. J. Mar.
Sci. Eng. 2014, 2(2), 437-476.
Tides were first addressed via an additive method (Haase 2012), and later along the boundary.
For the boundary methods, the boundary was defined based on depth threshold (Fritz 2014).
For cells deeper than the depth threshold, the additive method was used. For cells shallower
than the depth threshold, the model was allowed to propagate surge + tide. This was needed
to allow the model to inundate based on surge and tide vs just surge.
● Haase, A., J. Wang, A. Taylor, and J. Feyen, 2012: Coupling of Tides and Storm Surge
for Operational Modeling on the Florida Coast. Estuarine and Coastal Modeling,
American Society of Civil Engineers, M. L. Spaulding (Ed.), Proceedings of the 12th
International Conference on Estuarine and Coastal Modeling, St. Augustine, FL,
November 7-9, 2011, 230-238.
● Fritz (Haase), A. T., A. A. Taylor, J. Wang, and J. C. Feyen, 2014: Tidal Improvements
to the SLOSH Model. Recorded presentation given at 12th Symposium on the Coastal
Environment, 94th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.1.
Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm surge (P-Surge) model:
The P-Surge model was developed by the NWS’s Meteorological Development Laboratory
(MDL) from 2002 to 2008 in order to calculate the probabilities of a predicted storm surge.
The model first creates four error spaces. The first three (cross track, along track, and
intensity) are based on NHC’s 5-year average errors assuming a normal distribution. The
fourth one, dealing with size error, uses a non-normal distribution which was derived by using
SLOSH’s parametric wind model to predict the radius of maximum winds for a sample of
NHC advisories for Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico storms and then using the matching advisory
time to validate the prediction.
Once the error distributions are established, the P-Surge model samples them by creating
individual ensemble members (i.e., inputs to single SLOSH simulations) which represent a
certain portion of the error space. The ensembles are run through the version of the SLOSH
model that includes surge with tide inundation. The results are assigned a weight based on the
portion of the error space each individual ensemble member represents. These are then
combined to form two types of probabilistic products: (a) the probability in any location of
water level exceeding a given height, and (b) the water level height in any location which has
a given probability of being exceeded.
● Taylor, A., and Glahn, B., 2008: Probabilistic guidance for hurricane storm surge.
Preprints, 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, New Orleans, LA, Amer.
Meteor. Soc., 7.4.
Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model:
The ETSS model was developed by the NWS’s Meteorological Development Laboratory
(MDL) in 1995 by applying the Sea Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH)
model (Jelesnianski et al. 1992) to extra-tropical storms. At that time, MDL (a) replaced
SLOSH’s parametric wind model with the Global Forecast System (GFS) winds and pressure
on a 1 degree grid and (b) removed the computation of inundation based on surge (Kim et al.
1996). The latter change allowed the model to run efficiently on operational computers of the
time.
Over the last year (Oct 2014 to Sep 2015) MDL has enhanced the ETSS model in several
ways with the objective of providing guidance for future overland extra-tropical storm surge
services. To do so, MDL enabled ETSS to compute overland flooding from surge and tide
and addressed some other long standing issues along the way. These enhancements include
the following:
1. Use of 0.5 degree (vs 1.0 degree) GFS winds and pressure as inputs (Taylor et al. 2015).
2. Re-introduce the inundation algorithm based on storm surge (Liu et al. 2015).
3. Nest the SLOSH tropical grids within extra-tropical grids to leverage both the expanse of
the large extra-tropical grids and the finer overland details contained within the tropical
grids. Note that due to operational basin availability, this type of higher resolution results
are only available for the East and Gulf of Mexico coastlines (See Figure 1) (Liu et al.
2015).
Figure 1. Example of SLOSH Nesting Grids
4. Provide overland inundation guidance based on surge plus tide for all U.S coastlines.
Along the East and Gulf coast this uses the higher resolution nested SLOSH basin. Along
the West and Alaskan coasts the overland inundation is computed within the ETSS which
has a coarser resolution than the nested SLOSH basins. This requires a gridded tidal
database in all domains, which have accuracy that varies by region.
5. Resolve a performance gap caused by discontinuous water levels between the Bering and
Chukchi Seas due to use of separate ETSS basins. NWS is now using a new BeringBeaufort-Chukchi Sea (eBBC) Alaska basin. The eBBC basin includes updated
bathymetry and overland topography (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Bering-Beaufort-Chukchi Sea (eBBC) basin
● Kim, S.-C., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer, 1996: An operational Forecast Model for
Extratropical Storm Surges along the U.S. East Coast. Preprints, Conference on Coastal
Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction, Atlanta, Georgia, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 281-286.
● Taylor, A. A., H. Liu, R. Schuster, 2015: Finer Wind Field Resolution for NWS's ExtraTropical Storm Surge Model. Preprints, 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment,
Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.1.
● Liu, H., A. Taylor, R. Schuster, 2015: Creating Inundation Guidance from NWS's ExtraTropical Storm Surge Model. Preprints, 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment,
Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3.2.
Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) post-processing
In 2000, MDL developed combined surge and tide water level guidance at tide stations by
post-processing the ETSS model results. This was done by adding the ETSS model guidance
to the tide predictions at NOS water level gauge stations. When observations are available,
the post-processing compares the surge plus tide prediction to observations over the last 5days to compute a 5-day average error anomaly. This anomaly is then added to the surge +
tide forecast to create bias-corrected total water level guidance. In 2014, MDL migrated this
capability into operations and is now providing this total water level guidance as a SHEF
encoded message to AWIPS and the River Forecast Centers.
● Schuster, R., A. Taylor, 2015: Overhaul of MDL's Extratropical Storm Surge PostProcessing and Web Dissemination. Preprints, 13th Symposium on the Coastal
Environment, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J12.5.
Extratropical Surge and Time Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) model:
The Coast Survey Development Laboratory (CSDL) of the National Ocean Service (NOS)
and the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) have collaborated to establish an Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational
Forecast System (ESTOFS) for U.S. coastal waters. The ESTOFS-Atlantic covers the Western
North Atlantic Ocean including the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico and has been in
operation since 2012. The ESTOFS-Pacific covers the Eastern North Pacific Ocean including
the U.S. West Coast, Gulf of Alaska and Hawaiian Islands and has been in operation since
2014.
The hydrodynamic model employed for ESTOFS is the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC)
finite element model (Luettich et al. 1992; Luettich and Westerink 2004). The ADCIRC
hydrodynamic model has been demonstrated to be effective at predicting tidal circulation and
storm surge propagation in complex coastal systems. Its unstructured grid methodology allow
for the propagation of storm surges from offshore, across the shelf, and inland. This grid can
also represent irregular shorelines including barrier islands, rivers and waterways. However, it
should be noted that in order to limit computational costs, ESTOFS model domains limit
coastal resolution to no less than 1 km and do not extend overland to predict inundation.
Figure 3. ESTOFS-Atlantic Domain
The ESTOFS was implemented operationally by NCEP Central Operations (NCO) on the
Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) to provide forecasts of
the combined water level of surge with tides, astronomical tides, and sub-tidal water levels
(the isolated surge) throughout the domain. ESTOFS provides the National Weather Service
(NWS) with a second extratropical surge system in addition to the ETSS model. It helps meet
the needs of Weather Forecast Offices for putting out coastal inundation forecasts, particularly
by providing gridded tide predictions. ESTOFS fills NWS gaps in operational extratropical
storm surge and tide modeling coverage in Puerto Rico and Hawaii, which previously lacked
any guidance for coastal water levels.
The ESTOFS is also designed to provide the surge with tides to WAVEWATCHIII® (WW3)
for predicting waves with varying coastal water levels. Therefore, the ESTOFS set-up is
patterned after WW3: it uses the same Global Forecast System (GFS) forcing and has the
same forecast cycle and length. The model can reproduce the tidal characteristics and predict
storm surges within the model domain. However, the model resolution is not sufficient to
resolve all complex geometry in the shoreline. Therefore, the model tends to have larger
errors in tidal predictions in complicated inlets and estuarine systems with large tide range.
Output from ESTOFS-Pacific is disseminated by NCEP’s Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) and
NWS’ Office of Science and Technology Integration/Meteorological Development
Laboratory (OSTI/MDL).
Figure 4. ESTOFS-Pacific Domain
● Funakoshi, Y., J.C. Feyen, and F. Aikman, 2013. “The Extratropical Surge and Tide
Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Atlantic Implementation and Skill Assessment”,
NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 32.
http://www.nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/csdl/publications/TR_NOS-CS32FY14_01_Yuji_ESTOFS_SKILL_ASSESSMENT.pdf
● Xu, J. and J.C. Feyen, in press. “The Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast
System (ESTOFS) Pacific Development and Skill Assessment”, NOAA Technical Report
(attached).
Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS):
Coastal inundation prediction depends upon the ability to predict wave conditions in the
nearshore environment as they contribute to coastal flooding via wave set-up and run-up.
NWS’ Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is currently developing the Nearshore Wave
Prediction System (NWPS) to meet this requirement. NWPS uses information from
operational storm surge models in order to predict wave conditions. Further information about
NWPS has been provided by NWS/EMC.
Coastal rivers:
The Storm Surge Roadmap is coordinating the development of coupled storm surge-river
inundation prediction systems in collaboration with NWS’ National Water Center and the
River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Operational predictions from the P-Surge model are being
tested by RFCs as downstream boundary conditions for hydraulic models. Furthermore, test
evaluations of models which couple hydraulic (e.g., HEC-RAS) and coastal inundation (e.g.,
ADCIRC) have been completed. However, these coupled systems won’t become operational
for several years.
2. A summary of future plans for each system over the next 5 years (includes both model
development, and its planned (hoped for) use or phasing out in the NCEP Production
Suite.)
Probabilistic tropical cyclone storm surge (P-Surge) model:
MDL is enhancing P-Surge in 2016 by extending the time range of the forecast to 102 hr
(from 78 hr) while using a 24 hr (formerly 20 hr) hind cast. Under the assumption that there
are 12 hr between the onset of tropical storm force winds (resulting in issuance of a hurricane
watch) and landfall, and that it takes 18 hr for the storm to clear the area after landfall, this
will allow P-Surge to be used 72 hr (102 hr - 12 hr - 18 hr) or 3 days before the onset of
tropical storm force winds.
In out years, MDL is evaluating in conjunction with the Tropical and ExtraTropical Storm
Surge (TESS) Roadmap requirements and prioritization process on the following projects:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Provide guidance for weaker Tropical Storms
Apply the ETSS nesting techniques to SLOSH
Provide P-Surge guidance for two simultaneous storms
Explore other methods of including tides within SLOSH to improve accuracy
Increase P-Surge output to 312m resolution (or on native grids) to improve NHC
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map.
6. Incorporate a 2nd generation wave model into SLOSH/P-Surge to include effects of wave
predictions (EMC and MDL).
7. Expand P-Surge to island areas such as Puerto-Rico, Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam where
wave conditions can dominate coastal inundation events.
8. Expand P-Surge to Southern California to predict tropical cyclone impacts.
9. Research whether other parametric wind models (such as the one being explored to help
hurricane forecasters create gridded wind fields) will improve model skill.
10. Research whether using the GPSE model to adjust the error spaces would result in
improvements in P-Surge skill.
11. Improve the P-Surge probabilistic methods by increasing the error space sampling and
researching whether other probabilistic methods would result in improvements
12. Incorporate river forecasts as a boundary condition
13. Incorporate other ‘fast’ storm surge models
Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model:
MDL is developing P-ETSS in 2016 which will use the 21 GFS ensemble members as wind
forcing to the ETSS model. The resulting ensemble will be comparable to P-Surge in that it
will have surge and tide overland, unfortunately it will have a smaller number of ensemble
and less statistics behind it, so some work will be needed to evaluate the reliability of the
result.
MDL is also developing ETSS 2.2 in 2016 to replace the Gulf of Alaska and West Coast
basins with a single North East Pacific grid which will allow storm surge to propagate along
the Canadian coast.
In out years, MDL is evaluating the following projects in conjunction with the Tropical and
ExtraTropical Storm Surge (TESS) Roadmap requirements and prioritization process:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Incorporate wave forecasts (2nd generation wave model)
Incorporate river forecasts as a boundary condition
Expand to more regions (Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands)
Provide higher resolution results via nesting, particularly in the Yukon Delta
Begin to use data assimilation in the model by at least using station observations to adjust
the initial water conditions
6. Expand P-ETSS to use multi-wind model ensembles (ECMWF, NAM)
7. Expand P-ETSS to use multi-surge model ensembles to sample errors caused by the surge
prediction
Extratropical Surge and Time Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) model:
NOS’ Coast Survey Development Laboratory is beginning the development of an ESTOFS
implementation for the Western North Pacific Ocean to serve the islands and territories in the
region of Micronesia (see Figure 5; i.e, Guam, Federated States of Micronesia, Republic of
Palau). Currently, this region lacks any guidance on coastal water levels but is vulnerable to
coastal flooding events. This ESTOFS-Micronesia implementation will be low computational
cost due to low coastal resolution of approximately 1 km as were the initial implementations
of ESTOFS Atlantic and Pacific, and will use the same configuration of software. The
computational load is expected to be no more than 2 WCOSS nodes for 2 hours, 4 cycles per
day to create the 180-hour water level forecasts for this region. Operational implementation is
expected in FY17.
Figure 5. Planned Domain for ESTOFS-Micronesia
NOS’ Coast Survey Development Laboratory is also planning to upgrade the resolution of
ESTOFS-Atlantic using a new Western North Atlantic model grid in order to support total
water prediction. This 3 million node grid is being developed for a new ADCIRC hurricane
storm surge model (discussed in #3 below) but will also be used to improve the coastal
resolution of ESTOFS to nearly 200 m, and provide coverage of low-lying coastal lands up to
the 10 m NAVD 88 topographic contour. This model coverage provides the basis for a
coupled surge/tide/river prediction via planned coupling to WFR-Hydro beginning in several
years (see below). This model grid will be more costly than the current operational ESTOFS,
is estimated to use roughly 1000 processors and complete in an hour, and will provide 180
hour predictions four times per day. This implementation is planned for FY17.
3. The above 2 items should be also done for systems that modeling groups are developing
on global and regional scales; - e.g. - FIM, NIM, MPAS, GFDL models, and any other
internal models EMC and NOAA are developing - that could become part of the NPS.
Hurricane Storm Surge Operational Forecast System (HSSOFS) model:
NOAA/NOS/OCS has been employing the ADCIRC coastal ocean hydrodynamic model to
provide operational guidance for storm surges and tides since 2012. ADCIRC offers the
advantages of using unstructured grids to localize resolution, solving the fully non-linear
shallow water equations, and extensive application by academia and federal agencies for
coupled surge-tide-wave-river predictions. OCS’ operational ADCIRC guidance has been
developed for extratropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific, but has been at a coarse
coastal resolution of 1 to 3 km in order to provide large scale coverage with minimal expense.
OCS is now working with partners to develop, test, and transition a higher resolution
ADCIRC surge and tide model for the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S. With an coastal
resolution reaching below 200 m, this model incorporates the lower reaches of major coastal
rivers and will predict water levels and overland coastal flooding from tides and storm surge
using an ensemble of forcing based on the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s official
forecast. The NHC forecast is perturbed to make ensemble members which are shifted left and
right 50% across the cone of uncertainty, 20% more intense, and 20% earlier landfall time.
This ADCIRC model has been tested for providing real-time predictions and for coupling to
riverine hydraulic models in order to support total water predictions along the coast. This
includes using ADCIRC to provide downstream boundary conditions to hydraulic river
models as well as testing of inflow boundary conditions into ADCIRC from a hydraulic
model. HSSOFS will only generate a prediction when a tropical cyclone is within 48 hours or
less of landfall after being initiated by NHC. HSSOFS is estimated to use 2500 WCOSS
CPUs in order to complete a 5 to 7 day prediction of 5 ensemble members within 1 wall clock
hour.
● Riverside Technology, inc. and AECOM. “Mesh Development, Tidal Validation, and
Hindcast Skill Assessment of an ADCIRC Model for the Hurricane Storm Surge
Operational Forecast System on the US Gulf-Atlantic Coast”. Technical Report
(attached).
● Feyen, J., 2015. “Development and Testing of the Hurricane Storm Surge Operational
Forecast System” presentation (slides attached).
Coastal rivers:
Beginning in FY17, NOS’ Coast Survey Development Laboratory is planning to collaborate
with NWS’ National Water Center to develop a system for total water prediction on the East
and Gulf coasts. The upgraded ESTOFS-Atlantic (see in #2 above) will be coupled to WRFHydro to provide information on coastal water levels to the hydraulic routing within WRFHydro in order to predict flooding in coastal rivers. Conversely, river run-off will be provided
to ESTOFS in order to predict inundation levels in coastal estuaries. This capability will be
expanded to other ESTOFS regions in FY18 and beyond.
4. A quantitative table of how much time and cores each current system is using, along
with their start and end times.
There are 640 nodes in WCOSS Phase 1 and about 1100 nodes on Phase 2. Except P-Surge, the
other models are currently running on Phase 1.
P-Surge: 36 nodes run on Phase 2, up to 45 minutes for each cycle, run 4 cycles per day
ETSS: roughly 0.5 node, 35-37 minutes for each cycles, run 4 cycles per day
ESTOFS Atlantic: 2 nodes, 2 hours 10 minutes per cycle, run 4 cycles per day
ESTOFS Pacific: 2 nodes, 2 hours per cycle, run 4 cycles per day
NWPS parallel testing: 4 Phase II nodes; 2.5 hours per cycle, 2 cycles per day
Therefore of the 26,400 node-hours available on Phase 2 each day, P-Surge and NWPS are
allocated roughly 164 node-hours, or 0.6% of the system. It should be noted, however, that PSurge only uses nodes when a tropical cyclone is within 48 hours of landfall. In 2014 it only
ran for 10 forecast cycles; in 2013 it was 17 forecast cycles; in 2012 it was around 50 forecast
cycles. There are 1460 forecast cycles in a non-leap year (four per day).
Of the 15,360 node-hours available on Phase 1 each day, storm surge and nearshore wave
models are allocated roughly 167 node-hours, or 1% of the system.
Combining Phase 1 and Phase 2 nodes, coastal inundation prediction is allocated 0.75% of
WCOSS, and uses much less than that due to the intermittent nature of these events.
5. Information on how NCEP/NWS decides on the requirements and capabilities of the
various modeling efforts, and what are the requirements that current modeling systems
have to satisfy.
From the Storm Surge Roadmap Strategic Plan:
The SSR aims to deliver consistent, comprehensive, and effective tropical cyclone and
extratropical storm surge guidance, products, and services over all U.S. coastal areas of
responsibility. This includes the coastlines of the contiguous U.S. as well as the states of
Alaska and Hawaii and all off-shore United States territories and possessions, which include
American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the United States
Virgin Islands. The SSR also coordinates flood guidance, forecasts, products, and services for
coastal rivers, from the ocean to the head of tides, in conjunction with the NWS water
resources program and NWC. The following functional requirements describe, at a high level,
the level of service required to meet the SSR goals.
●
Generation of model guidance predicting overland inundation for all storms affecting
U.S. coastlines.
●
Provision of guidance and forecasts of the total water of coastal flood events caused by
surge, tide, waves, and coastal rivers with sufficient lead time.
●
Determination of uncertainty in coastal inundation predictions via ensemble and/or
probabilistic model guidance.
●
Assessment of the skill of warnings and guidance for coastal inundation.
●
Consistency in coastal and riverine guidance, forecasts, products, and services.
6. Points of contact for the different modeling systems (and assistance with the Glossary on
the UMAC web site.) This should, de facto, also identify the external modeling partners
NCEP works with.
P-Surge, ETSS: Arthur Taylor, National Weather Service/Office of Science and Technology
Integration/Meteorological Development Laboratory ([email protected])
ESTOFS, HSSOFS: Dr. Jesse Feyen, National Ocean Service/Office of Coast Survey/Coast
Survey Development Laboratory ([email protected])
7. Reports from the various NOAA modeling initiatives (HIWPPS, NGGPS, NMME,
HWRF, ESPC, NEMS, coupled models, etc.) and their future plans.
A final draft copy of the Storm Surge Roadmap Strategic Plan has been provided, which
defines storm surge requirements, gaps and describes the strategy for prioritization.
8. Access to verification information for each system.
Model validation information for the ESTOFS models is provided within the technical reports
on the development and implementation of ESTOFS-Atlantic and Pacific (see #1 above).
9. Information about post-processing plans for NPS systems, and the production of
supporting databases, e.g., reanalysis/reforecast/hi-res analyses for post-processing
training /validation.