U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network
FUTURE NATURAL GAS DEMAND
(2010-2030)
30
Trillion Cubic Feet
25
20
Power Generation
Industrial
Commercial
15
Residential
Other
10
5
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009-2030.
1
FUTURE NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
(2010-2030)
30.00
Trillion Cubic Feet
25.00
20.00
LNG
15.00
Canadian Imports
10.00
Domestic Production
5.00
0.00
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009-2030.
2
North American Supply
Projected US Supply/Demand Balance
(EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2005)
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
Tcf
Initial Alaskan gas reaches lower 48
15.00
LNG
10.00
Canada
Domestic
5.00
Total US Demand
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
0.00
Year
3
NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
(JANUARY 1-DECEMBER 31, 2008)
80.0
70.0
50.0
40.0
LNG
Canadian Imports
30.0
Domestic Production
20.0
10.0
0.0
Jan 1
11
21
31
10
20
Mar 1
11
21
31
10
20
30
May 10
20
30
9
19
29
9
Jul
19
29
8
18
28
Sep 7
17
27
7
17
27
Nov 6
16
26
6
16
26
Bcf per day
60.0
Source: Bentek Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals, December 31, 2008.
4
Shale Basins and the U.S. Pipeline Grid
Source: American Clean Skies Foundation.
UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
Traditional Natural Gas Production
Unconventional
Gas Resources
Shales, Tight Sands,
Coal Seams
Natural Gas Production Barnett Shale 1993-2006
Source: Texas Railroad Commission
General Characteristics of Productive Shales
Source: William Grieser, Halliburton Company.
SHALE GAS RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Potential Gas Committee added about 200
Tcf to U.S. resource assessment between
2004 and 2006 – almost all attributed to
new shale-related data
Navigant Consulting, Inc. (2008) estimates
275-842 Tcf from 17 U.S. shale plays
SELECTED SHALE GAS RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Shale Play
Antrim
Appalachian
Marcellus
Haynesville
Fayetteville
Barnett
Lewis (New Mexico)
Lewis (Wyoming)
Estimate (Tcf)
13
70
34
34
26
26
10
14
Max Gas In-Place (Tcf)
76
1744
1500
717
52
168
61
98
Mean estimate for U.S. shale resources, 274 Tcf
Gas in-place estimates as high as 3,765 Tcf
(Navigant Consulting, Inc.)
SHALE GAS PRODUCTION ESTIMATES
Depending on the source, some analysts
estimate that shale production now at
about 5 Bcf per day will grow to 27-35
Bcf per day by the end of the next decade
Will this be additive to current production
rates or will it only replace other
declining production capability?
Daily Natural Gas Consumption by Sector
January 1-December 31, 2008
100.0
90.0
80.0
60.0
50.0
Pwr Gen
40.0
Industrial
30.0
Res/Com
20.0
10.0
0.0
Jan 1
11
21
31
10
20
1
Mar
11
21
31
10
20
30
May 10
20
30
9
19
29
9
Jul
19
29
8
18
28
7
Sep
17
27
7
17
27
6
Nov 16
26
6
16
26
Bcf per day
70.0
Source: Bentek Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals, December 31, 2008.
NATURAL GAS IS BY FAR THE CLEANEST
OF ALL FOSSIL FUELS
POUNDS OF CO2 PER MMBTU
250
200
150
100
50
0
NATURAL GAS
PROPANE
GASOLINE
RESIDUAL OIL
WOOD
COAL
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
13
CONSUMPTION PER RESIDENTIAL
NATURAL GAS CUSTOMER
MMBtu/Year
32% Efficiency
Improvement
Source:
NOTE:
U.S. Energy Information Administration and American Gas Association.
Data is “weather normalized” or adjusted to reduce the impact of abnormally warm or
cold weather.
14
RESIDENTIAL NATURAL GAS CUSTOMERS
ARE GROWING, BUT THEIR GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS HAVE DECLINED
70
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS
250
50
200
40
150
30
MILLIONS OF TONS/YR.
MILLIONS OF CUSTOMERS
60
300
100
20
50
10
0
0
1970
2007
1970-1979
2000-2006
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Energy Information Administration
and American Gas Association.
15
TOTAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY
(SOURCE ENERGY REQUIRED TO DELIVER 100 MMBtu
TO END-USE CUSTOMER)
400
350
300
MILLION Btu
250
200
150
100
50
0
ELECTRICITY
NATURAL GAS
NOTE: National average electricity generation mix.
16
TONS OF CO2 /YEAR
DIRECT NATURAL GAS USE REDUCES
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
17
NUMBER OF NATURAL GAS
CUSTOMERS INCREASING
70
MILLIONS OF CUSTOMERS
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
2007
18
OUR INDUSTRY’S FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT
Abundant domestic supply resource base to
meet demand growth at reasonable costs
Innovative rate designs to align
interests of utility and customers
Increased direct use of natural gas can reduce
energy consumption and costs, lower carbon
emissions and enhance national energy security
Gas utility industry is a solid, safe,
responsible investment
19
Utility Operations Technologies on the Horizon
• Smart Meters
• Expanded Use of Mapping and Other Informational Systems
• Enhanced Locating Technologies
• Improved Leak Detection (Vehicles and Handheld)
• Improved Design, Construction and Materials
• Enhanced Pipeline Repair/Rehabilitation
20