Norges Bank’s regional network
Round 2012 3 - National charts
(Interviews carried out 3 September through 28 September, 2012)
.
1
1.1 Output growth. Aggregated
Past 3 months and 6 months ahead. Annualised
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Past 3 months
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
-6
Next 6 months
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
2
1.2 Output growth. Manufacturing and construction
Past 3 months and 6 months ahead. Annualised
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Domestically oriented manufacturing
Export industry²
-6
Suppliers to the petroleum industry³
Construction
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
²) Includes deliveries to the petroleum sector outside the Norwegian continental shelf.
³) Deliveries to the petroleum sector on the Norwegian continental shelf.
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
3
1.3 Output growth. Retail trade and services
Past 3 months and 6 months ahead. Annualised
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Retail trade
Corporate services
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
-6
Household services
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
4
1.4 Capacity constraints and labour supply. Aggregated
Per cent
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Capacity constraints¹
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
Labour supply²
¹) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems
accommodating an increase in demand.
²) Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
5
1.5 Capacity constraints¹. All sectors
Per cent
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Manufacturing
Construction
¹) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems
accommodating an increase in demand.
2009
2010
2011
2012
Retail trade
Services
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
6
1.6 Labour supply¹. All sectors
Per cent
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Manufacturing
Construction
Local government and hospital sector
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
Retail trade
Services
¹) Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
7
1.7 Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated
Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating
an increase in demand
NORTH
May 2012
1.7b Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Last round
September 2012
NORTH
1.7a Capacity constraints. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round
>65%
MIDNORWAY
NORTH
WEST
INLAND
MIDNORWAY
NORTH
WEST
INLAND
55-64%
45-54%
35-44%
25-34%
SOUTH
WEST
SOUTH
WEST
EAST
SOUTH
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
15-24%
EAST
< 15%
SOUTH
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
8
1.8 Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated
Share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply
NORTH
May 2012
1.8b Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated. Last round
September 2012
NORTH
1.8a Labour supply. All regions. Aggregated. Previous round
>55%
MIDNORWAY
NORTH
WEST
INLAND
MIDNORWAY
NORTH
WEST
INLAND
45-54%
35-44%
25-34%
15-24%
SOUTH
WEST
SOUTH
WEST
EAST
SOUTH
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
5-14%
EAST
< 5%
SOUTH
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
9
1.9 Investment growth. Aggregated
Expected change in investments 12 months ahead
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
0
-1
-10
-2
-20
-3
-30
-4
2005
2006
2007
2008
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
2009
2010
2011
2012
-40
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
10
1.10 Investment growth. All sectors
Expected change in investments 12 months ahead
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
4
40
3
30
2
20
1
10
0
0
-1
-10
-2
-20
-3
-30
-4
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Manufacturing
Retail trade
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-40
Services
Local government and hospital sector
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
11
1.11 Employment growth. Aggregated
Past 3 months and 3 months ahead¹
Per cent
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
2003
2004
2005
2006
Past 3 months
¹) Mixed indicator until 2004. Split in to ’last 3 months’ and
’3 months ahead’ as from 2005.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-4
Next 3 months
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
12
1.12 Employment growth. All sectors
Past 3 months and 3 months ahead¹
Per cent
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Manufacturing
Construction
Local government and hospital sector
¹) Mixed indicator until 2004. Split in to ’last 3 months’ and
’3 months ahead’ as from 2005.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-4
Retail trade
Services
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
13
1.13 Annual wage growth. Aggregated and all sectors
Contacts’ estimates for each year¹
Index² - lefthand axis, per cent - righthand axis
5
7
4
3
6
2
1
5
0
-1
4
-2
-3
3
-4
-5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturing
Construction
Local government and hospital sector
2
Retail trade
Services
Aggregated
¹) Starting in 2010, the first observation for wage growth has been collected in November the previous year.
²) The index ranges from -5 to +5.
See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
14
1.14 Annual wage growth. Aggregated
Technical reporting committee on income settlements (TBU) compared to
contacts’ estimates (RN). Per cent
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
RN (autumn previous year)
RN winter
RN spring
¹) For 2010: Wage growth for employees at enterprises affiliated to an
employer organisation and in the public administration
including the health trusts.
0
RN summer
RN autumn
TBU¹
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
15
1.15 Selling prices. Aggregated
Change past 12 months
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
16
1.16 Selling prices. Manufacturing and construction
Change past 12 months
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Domestically oriented manufacturing
Export industry
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6
Construction
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
17
1.17 Selling prices. Retail trade and services
Change past 12 months
Index¹, left-hand axis; per cent, right-hand axis
5
10
4
8
3
6
2
4
1
2
0
0
-1
-2
-2
-4
-3
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Retail trade
Corporate services
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-6
Household services
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
18
1.18 Selling prices 12 months ahead. Aggregated
Expected change in price growth.
Diffusion index¹
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
¹) Share that expects higher price growth + (1/2 * share that expects unchanged price growth).
2011
2012
20
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
19
1.19 Selling prices 12 months ahead. Business and household sector
Expected change in price growth.
Diffusion index¹
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
2005
2006
Business sector²
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Household sector³
¹) Share that expects higher price growth + (1/2 * share that expects unchanged price growth).
²) Manufacturing, construction, corporate services.
³) Retail trade, household services.
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
20
1.20 Profitability. Aggregated
Change in operating margins past 3 months compared to same period a year earlier.
Index¹
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
2007
2008
2009
¹) The index ranges from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5
indicates strong growth. See article ’Norges Bank’s regional network: fresh
and useful information’ in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information.
2010
2011
2012
-4
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network
21