Local demography and
service pressures
Northamptonshire District and
Borough Summaries
April 2017
Corby Summary
Corby Borough
Local Taxation:
Corby generates the second highest combined per head Council
Tax and Business Rates income in the county at £857 per head
compared to a low of £705 in East Northamptonshire and high
of £1,020 in Daventry. This is mainly driven by Business Rates,
which is the second highest per head in the county. The Council
Tax yield per head is the lowest (and the lowest per dwelling) in
the county due to the Borough’s highest (in county) number of
properties in the lowest Council tax value bands and lowest (in
county) number of properties in the highest value bands. In the
case of Business Rates, this is a reflection of the size and
composition of its industry not (rateable) value per square
metre (lowest in the county). However, this is likely to be an
important factor in drawing businesses to the area.
being planned in Corby up to 2019 (NCC, Place Directorate). If
realised, this is the equivalent of a 35% increase in the current
number of domestic properties – joint highest in the county
alongside Daventry, and compares to a low of 10% in East
Northamptonshire.
Population Change:
Corby is a significant driver in the county’s projected above
average rate of population growth in the ten years to 2024
(2014-base). The forecasted rate of growth is well above the
England average, at +16.7% versus +7.5% and, outside London,
the highest % projected population growth in England. In Corby,
the greatest component of population change is projected to
be natural change (births minus deaths). This is likely due to
Corby’s highest in county fertility rate and lowest proportion of
its population over 65. Alongside this are fairly high levels of
both Net International and Net within UK migration.
Corby’s relatively high fertility rate in recent years is evident in
its above average (highest in county and above England
average) proportion of it population aged 0-11 (MYE-2015). As
this demographic bulge moves up in years, population growth
in the 10-19 population is forecasted to be well above the
county and England averages up to 2024.
Corby is an area of major house building. At least another
10,000 new houses from major new housing developments are
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
A significant number of additional pupils requiring school
places is expected in Corby and, with limited surplus capacity in
Corby’s schools, new primary schools are being planned to
serve three major developments and a new, 6th secondary
school, in addition to expansions of existing schools. At
secondary level, it is predicted that schools will be full by
September 2017.
Whilst Corby’s rate of 0-18 year olds within the Children’s Social
Care caseload is middling and on a par with the county average,
the high rate of growth amongst young people that is
forecasted suggests that the impact on Children Social Care
services could be greater than in other areas (med-high),
adding an estimated 119 people or 22.2% aged 0-18 to the
current caseload (county average = 8.7%).
Corby Summary
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
Corby’s rate of long-term Adult Social Care clients in 2016 (AprDec) was above the county average (3rd highest). However,
whilst the rate of 18-65 clients is just below the county average,
the rate of over 65 year old clients is the highest in the county,
by a relatively large amount, and well above average.
Interestingly, Corby is also the most deprived Borough/ District
in Northamptonshire with regards to the Income Deprivation
Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI). Also, male and female
life expectancy at age 65 is the lowest in Corby within the
county; significantly lower than the national average.
The average age of new residential (care home) clients in Corby
(2016/17), upon enquiry, was second lowest in the county, yet
clients in Corby are in residential services for the second
shortest amount of time. This might be an indication of the
health of clients when going into Residential Care.
It is important to note that Corby has the lowest proportion of
over 65s within its population in the county (MYE-2015). By
2024, it is estimated that the over 65 population in Corby will
grow by 28.3%, on a par with the county average but higher
than the national average. However, with higher rates of 65+
Adult Social Care clients compared to the rest of the county, the
increase in the over 65s population will likely still have a
medium/average impact on Adult Social Care services in terms
of demand adding 110 people aged 65+ (29.7%) to the current
number of clients within the Older People’s Teams (county
average = 27.6%).
Corby Borough
Wider determinants:
Average earnings are an issue for Corby, being the lowest in the
county and almost £100 less per week than the England
average. As such Corby has the highest % residents in the
county experiencing income deprivation and second highest
proportion (nearly a third) in the county living in areas that fall
into the top 20% most deprived nationally. Skills are an issue for
the area. For example, Corby has the lowest proportion of
residents with degree-level qualifications. Correspondingly, a
much higher proportion of Corby residents are employed in
‘lower’ level (assuming lower paid) occupations compared to
the rest of the county; both of which will be contributing to
lower than average earnings. The future does not look brighter.
Attainment in Corby schools is below average (county and
England) at end of Reception year, KS2 and KS4 (GCSE).
The ratio of jobs to residents in Corby is below the England
average (2015) and third lowest in the county and jobs growth
has been relatively weak in recent years. However, whilst not a
positive characteristic of the area, the relatively low
employment rate goes some way to eliminating this potential
issue for now (lower proportion of residents looking for jobs).
As such Corby has a better than (England) average Jobs Seekers
Allowance claimant rate (0.8% vs 1.1%). The data suggests that
issues or lifestyle choices, other than the availability of jobs, are
preventing people from working, including ill health.
Daventry Summary
Local Taxation:
Daventry yields the highest combined per head Council Tax and
Business Rates income in the county at £1,020 per head
compared to a low of £705 in East Northamptonshire. Per head
Business rates is the highest in the county, not for having the
highest average rateable value per metre squared (3rd lowest),
but likely a reflection of the size and composition of its industry.
Daventry generates the second highest Council Tax yield per
head in the county, as has the second highest % of domestic
properties in the highest value bands and second lowest on the
lowest value band.
Population Change:
Daventry’s population is projected to increase by a below
average 5.7% between 2014 to 2024 (versus 9% county and
7.5% England averages) – joint lowest in the county. Population
growth in Daventry is forecasted to be mainly driven by people
coming to live in Daventry from other parts of the UK, with a
low proportion of natural change, which is likely due to
Daventry’s relatively low fertility rate and high proportion of its
population aged 65+ (highest in county).
Daventry is an area of major house building and at least
another 12,000 new houses are being planned in Daventry
District up to 2019 (NCC, Place Directorate). This is the
equivalent to a 35% increase in the current number of domestic
properties (joint highest in county) compared to a low of 10%
in East Northamptonshire. If realised, this would suggest a far
greater than projected increase in Daventry’s population.
Daventry District
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
There are plans to create an additional 1,995 primary school
places in new schools within the District by 2020 to
accommodate a large proportion of the estimated 3,000 new
primary age pupils from major new housing developments.
The relatively large surplus capacity of secondary school places
will absorb much of the pupil increase at secondary level in
addition to planned expansions at two existing schools.
The pupil yield from new housing developments is expected to
have, by far, the biggest impact on pupil numbers,
disproportionately so compared with other areas of the county.
Not including new developments the projected increase in
primary pupil numbers is just 4% and secondary is 5.3%.
As Daventry’s rate of 0-18 year olds within the Children’s Social
Care caseload is second lowest in the county, the impact will be
influenced by the increase in volume (subject to new housing
development) rather than the rate. However, whilst official
(ONS) population projections forecast a low rate of 0-18
population growth by 2024 (2014-base) - lowest in county – a
below average (low) impact on Children’s Social Care services in
the future is predicted, adding an estimated 7 people or 1.9%
aged 0-18 to the current caseload (county average = 8.7%).
However, this could well change based on what is known locally
about new housing developments in the pipeline.
Daventry Summary
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
Daventry’s rate of long-term Adult Social Care clients in 2016
(Apr-Dec) was below the county average (2nd lowest in county).
The rate of long-term Older People’s Teams clients in Daventry
is the lowest in the county.
Interestingly, Daventry is the 2nd least deprived Borough/
District in Northamptonshire with regards to the Income
Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI). Daventry is
joint 2nd highest in the county with Wellingborough in terms of
the average age of a new residential (care home) client. This
suggests that older people in Daventry are either not needing
or seeking the most intensive level of care from Adult Social
Care as early as in other areas, likely for health or financial
reasons. However, the average time spent in residential care is
shorter in Daventry than Wellingborough, as is life expectancy
at age 65. In addition, it is worth noting that highlighted of
concern in Daventry with regards to the health and wellbeing of
older people is injuries due to falls in people aged 65 and over,
where rates are significantly higher than national averages.
Daventry’s proportion of over 65s within its population is the
highest in the county, above the county and England averages,
and projected to increase by the 2nd largest % (30.3%) in the
county by 2024. Therefore the future impact on services will be
influenced by the increase in volume rather than the rate and
therefore will be fairly average (medium impact) adding 106
people aged 65+ or 28.4% to the current number of clients
within the Older People’s Teams (county average = 27.6%).
Daventry District
Wider determinants:
Levels of employment, availability of jobs and associated
deprivation do not appear to be a big issue for Daventry
District. However, the decrease in levels of earnings in recent
years is a concern, particularly for an area which yields a
healthy income (per head) from Council Tax. The average
earnings of Daventry residents are third highest in the county.
However, in contrast to the rest of the county, they have
decreased in recent years (2012 to 2016), by approximately
7.3% versus a 7.3% average increase for the county. Average
earnings within Daventry workplaces are second lowest in the
county.
There will be a number of factors that affect this. One could be
the 11% increase in job numbers within the area’s largest
sector, Transport and Storage industries in recent years.
Skill levels also pose a risk bearing in mind cross-border
competition for (higher paid) jobs and the high level of
dependence on jobs outside of the District. Daventry has a
lower % of residents with degree level qualifications and above
and higher proportion with no qualifications compared to all its
immediate neighbours, with two exceptions. However,
attainment amongst Daventry pupils is largely above average
(county and England) at end of Reception year, KS2 and KS4 and
the quality of schools appears not to be an issue at primary
level, which will help improve this situation in future years,
although there is cause for concern around the quality of
secondary schools.
East Northants Summary
East Northamptonshire
Local Taxation:
East Northamptonshire yields the lowest income per head
compared to any other District and Borough in the county at
£705 compared to a high of £1,020 in Daventry. Business rates
per head is the second lowest in the county; a reflection of the
size of its industry/low jobs density. Whereas, Council Tax per
head is 3rd highest in the county due to the area’s proportion of
properties within the different value bands.
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
There are plans to create an additional 840 primary school
places in new schools within the District by 2020 to
accommodate a modest increase in pupils. However a relatively
large surplus capacity at both primary and secondary schools
means that much of the projected increase in pupil numbers
will be absorbed within existing schools. no new secondary
schools being planned for the District.
Population Change:
East Northamptonshire’s population is forecasted to grow by a
below county average 6.8% in East Northamptonshire between
2014 and 2024 (county average is 9%), albeit similar to the
7.5% England average. The largest component of this growth is
forecasted to be people moving to the District from other parts
of the UK. Particularly notable in East Northamptonshire is the
high proportion (highest in county) of 85+ year olds (MYE2015), plus the highest in county forecasted % increase in the
65+ population by 2024.
East Northamptonshire has the third lowest proportion of
children and young people (ages 0-19) within its population in
the county (see opposite), on a par with the England average
and just below the county average. East Northamptonshire is
forecasted to have a relatively small increase in its 0-18
population by 2024 (2014-base), coupled with the relatively
low (3rd lowest in county) rate of 0-18 year olds within the
Children’s Social Care caseload, the impact on Children’s Social
Care services in the future is likely to be relatively low/below
average, adding an estimated 12 people or 1.9% aged 0-18 to
the current caseload (county average = 8.7%).
In the region of 4,000+ new houses are being planned in East
Northamptonshire within major housing developments
(Sustainable Urban Extensions) up to 2019 (NCC, Place
Directorate). This equates to an approximate 10% increase in
domestic properties in the District (lowest % increase in the
county).
East Northants Summary
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
East Northamptonshire’s rate of long-term Adult Social Care
clients (all ages) in 2016 (Apr-Dec) was in line with the county
average and therefore in a middling position in the county, as is
the rate of long-term Older People’s Teams clients.
Correspondingly, East Northamptonshire is the third least
deprived Borough/District in Northamptonshire with regards to
the Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI).
East Northamptonshire has one of the highest proportions of
over 65s within its population in the county at 19.8%. What’s
more, by 2024, it is estimated that the over 65s population in
East Northamptonshire will grow by 33.7% (highest in the
county), above the county and England averages (see graph
below). Coupled with East Northamptonshire’s ‘average’ rates
of ASC clients per 10,000 population, the increase in the over
65s population will likely have a medium-high/above average
impact on Adult Social Care services in terms of demand,
adding 174 people aged 65+ (32.7%) to the current number of
clients within the Older People’s Teams (county average =
27.6%).
East Northamptonshire
Wider determinants:
The economic prosperity of East Northamptonshire’s residents
appears to be good in terms of earnings levels (2nd highest in
the county and above the England average, and rising), low
levels of deprivation (2nd lowest in county) and Job Seekers
Allowance claimants (Dec-16) (below county and England
averages at just 0.6%), and high levels of self-employment (2nd
highest in county).
However, there are causes for concern. The density of jobs is
low and jobs growth has been stagnant in recent years. The
profile of local jobs is one of low knowledge and low
technological intensity, which could go some way to explaining
the stagnation in jobs growth in recent years and poses a risk of
decline in job numbers in future years. There has been a large
increase in construction jobs in recent years, partially offsetting the nearly 25% decrease in manufacturing jobs.
However, they are likely linked to time-limited, new large
developments, and therefore may also not be sustainable. From
an income point of view, this poses a risk to business rates.
Despite this, the availability of jobs for residents does not
appear to be an issue at present and a large proportion travel
outside of the District to work, having a positive effect on
resident earnings levels.
However, although adult qualifications are relatively
competitive up to NVQ2, they are below average thereafter.
Pupil attainment is below average at KS2 and KS4 and there is
cause for concern around quality of secondary schools.
Kettering Summary
Local Taxation:
Kettering yields the 2nd lowest income per head compared to
any other District and Borough in the county at £752 per head
(low of £705 in East Northamptonshire and high of £1,020 in
Daventry). Kettering generates the 3rd lowest per head Business
Rates in the county and sits in a middling position with regards
to Council Tax.
Population Change:
Based on recent trends, Kettering Borough is projected to
increase by 9.3% between 2014 and 2024 (approx. an
additional 9,000 people), on a par with the 9% county average.
The largest proportion of this change is forecasted to be people
coming to live in Kettering from other parts of the UK followed
almost equally by natural change (net births minus deaths)
likely due to the relatively high fertility rate.
Forming part of the appeal will likely be relatively low house
prices (second lowest in county and well below England
average).
At least another 7,000 new houses are being planned in
Kettering Borough up to 2019 (NCC, Place Directorate).
This is equivalent to a 17% increase in the current number of
domestic properties, compared to a high of 35% in Corby and
Daventry and a low of 10% in East Northamptonshire.
Kettering District
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
There are plans to create an additional 1,260 primary school
places in new schools within the District by 2020 to
accommodate a large projected increase in pupil numbers
which cannot be accommodated within current surplus
capacity. At secondary level the current surplus capacity is
expected to be absorbed from 2017/18 and therefore there are
plans for a new secondary school (1,500 places) as well as
expansions, both permanent and temporary at other schools in
the Borough.
Official (ONS) population projections forecast a 10.3% increase
in the number of 0-18 year olds by 2024 (2014-base), just
above the 8.8% county average, and compares to a high of
23.0% in Corby and low of 1.9% in Daventry. Kettering’s rate of
0-18 year olds within the Children’s Social Care caseload is 3rd
highest in the county, also sitting just above the county average.
The future impact of population growth on the Children’s Social
Care caseload will therefore likely be medium/fairly average,
adding 77 people onto the current 751 or +10.3% (county
average = 8.7%).
Kettering Summary
Kettering District
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
Kettering’s rate of long-term Adult Social Care clients in 2016
(Apr-Dec) was above the county average and second highest in
the county, as was the rate of long-term Older People’s Teams
clients. Amongst the 65+ cohort the average age of new
Residential care (care home) clients in 2016/17 was just below
the county average suggesting that they are either needing or
seeking the most intensive level of care from Adult Social Care
earlier than most other Districts and Boroughs with the
exception of Corby, although please note that the margins are
small.
Wider determinants:
The economic prosperity of Kettering’s residents appears to be
reasonable/relatively average for the county. Kettering sits in
the middle of all the county Districts and Boroughs with regards
to earnings levels (albeit slightly below the county and England
averages), levels of deprivation (IMD-2015), ratio of jobs to
residents and jobs growth in recent years. The Job Seekers
Allowance claimant rate (Dec-16) is 3rd highest (out of 7) and
similar to the county and England averages and the estimated
employment rate is second highest (although margins are very
small).
Kettering sits in the middle of the districts in terms of
proportion of over 65s within its population at 18% (ONS, MYE2015). By 2024, it is estimated that the over 65s population in
Kettering will grow by 25.1% (second lowest in county), below
the county average. Whilst Kettering is not expected to have as
big an increase in the 65+ population as most other
Boroughs/Districts, it does have the second highest rate per
10,000 population of long-term Adult Social Care Older People’s
Teams clients. Therefore, the future impact of population
growth on the Adult’s Social Care caseload will likely be
medium/just below average, adding 148 people aged 65+
(24.2%) to the current 610 clients within the Older People’s
Teams (county average = 27.6%).
A well above average proportion of jobs are within the Health
sector (21% vs. 11.4% county and 12.5% England averages),
likely due to Kettering General Hospital. The above county
average proportion of Knowledge Intensive Jobs in the Service
sector is a likely reflection of this, whereas a high proportion of
Manufacturing jobs are low tech (62% - highest in the county).
The two will likely have a balancing effect on wage levels. The
presence of the hospital likely also has a positive effect on
qualification levels, as Kettering has the 2nd highest % of
residents in the county with degree level qualifications and
above (albeit slightly below England average).
Although nearly 50% of residents work outside of the Borough,
the data doesn’t suggest that this is for higher wages, in
contrast to other areas. Kettering residents appear well placed
to compete for jobs where average earnings are lower than in
Kettering but not where they are higher, which will have an
important bearing on average resident earnings.
Northampton Summary
Local Taxation:
Northampton generates the third highest combined per head
Council Tax and Business Rates income in the county at £841
per head compared to a low of £705 in East Northamptonshire
and high of £1,020 in Daventry. It is also important to note that
Northampton also has, by far, the largest tax base. Business
Rates is a stronger driver of local tax income in Northampton
(3rd highest in county) than Council Tax (3rd lowest in county), a
reflection of the size of its industry (large town) and high
average rateable value per m² (highest in the county - largely
due to its higher value Retail space).
Population Change:
Northampton is a significant driver of projected population
growth and is forecasted to have the second highest population
growth in the county between 2014 and 2024 at 10.4% (approx.
an additional 22,800 people), versus 9% county and 7.5%
England averages. This is forecasted to be driven by natural
change (likely influenced by above average fertility rate) and net
International migration. International migration into
Northampton is forecasted to be the highest in the county
between 2014 and 2024 as a proportion of population change,
accounting for 65% of the projected increase in the population.
At least another 12,700 new houses are being planned in
Northampton up to 2019. If realised, this is the equivalent of a
13.3% increase in the current number of domestic properties.
This compares to a high of 35% in Daventry and Corby and low
of 10% in East Northants.
Northampton Borough
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
The level of surplus capacity available across Northampton
town schools remains extremely limited. As such 5 new primary
schools (2,100 places) are being planned up to 2020, adding to
the 5,000+ places have already been added since 2010. The
growth in the primary phase of education has started to impact
on the secondary phase of education and by 2020/21 the
number of pupils on roll in secondary schools is expected to be
22.7% higher (largest % increase in county) than the 2015/16,
not including in-migration and new housing development.
Northampton town secondary schools are expected to be full
by September 2019 and as such, new secondary provision is
being sought.
Northampton has the second highest proportion of children
and young people (ages 0-19) within its population in the
county. Official population projections forecast that
Northampton will have the second largest % increase in its 0-18
population by 2024 (2014-base) at 12.0% compared to a high of
23% in Corby and low of 1.9% in Daventry. Whilst
Northampton’s rate of 0-18 year olds within the Children’s
Social Care caseload is highest in the county, the relatively high
rate of growth amongst an already relatively large proportion of
children and young people suggests that the impact on Children
Social Care services could be could be relatively high, adding an
estimated 238 people or 11.8% aged 0-18 to the current
caseload (county average = 8.7%).
Northampton Summary
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
Northampton’s rate of long-term Adult Social Care clients in
2016 (Apr-Dec) was just below the county average and third
lowest in the county. Correspondingly, the rate of long-term
Older People’s Teams clients is slightly below the county
average and third lowest in county. Interestingly, whilst lower
than average rates can often be associated with better living
conditions and lower eligibility (due to affluence), Northampton
is the second most deprived with regards to Income
Deprivation Affecting Older People and life expectancy in
Northampton (at birth and at age 65) is significantly lower than
the national average (2012-14).
It is important to note that Northampton has the second lowest
proportion of over 65s within its population in the county
(MYE-2015). By 2024, it is estimated that the over 65s
population in Northampton will grow by 26.3% (third lowest in
county), below the county, but above the England average.
With slightly below average rates of 65+ Adult Social Care
clients compared to the rest of the county, the increase in the
over 65s population will likely have a low to medium impact on
Adult Social Care services in terms of demand adding 245
people aged 65+ (25.3%) to the current number of clients
within the Older People’s Teams (county average = 27.6%). It is
important to note that Northampton has the largest local
population in terms of numbers of people and therefore there
will remain be a large volume of clients from Northampton.
Northampton Borough
Wider determinants:
Nearly a third of Northampton’s residents (27.9%) live in areas
that fall into the top 20% most deprived nationally (highest in
the county). Skills are a particular issue for Northampton
Borough to the extent that Northampton is one of the 10-20%
most deprived districts/boroughs/unitaries in the country in the
Education, Skills and Training Deprivation domain within the
Indices of Multiple Deprivation (2015). Northampton has the
second highest % of residents in the county with no
qualifications; higher than all its immediate neighbours, bar
one. On the whole, qualification levels of the adult population
in Northampton are below the England average. School
attainment also falls below national averages, albeit fairly
average for the county.
This may well be impacting on earnings levels and ability to
compete for jobs. The average earnings of Northampton
residents are third lowest in the county, below the county and
England averages. Despite having the highest jobs density in the
county at 0.99 jobs for every person (well above the 0.84
England average and on a par with Milton Keynes),
Northampton’s Jobs Seekers Allowance Claimant rate is highest
in the county at 1.3%, sitting just above the England average of
1.1%. The high density and range of jobs draws in workers from
across the county and beyond, including South
Northamptonshire (6.1% working in Northampton) where the
jobs density is significantly lower and skill levels higher.
South Northants Summary
Local Taxation:
When Business Rates and Council Tax are combined, South
Northamptonshire yields the 3rd lowest income per head in the
county at £770 compared to a low of £705 in East Northants
and high of £1,020 in Daventry). Per head Business rates is the
lowest in the county, not for having a low average rateable
value per metre squared (2nd highest in county), but likely a
reflection of the modest size and composition of its industry. In
complete contrast, South Northamptonshire generates the
highest Council Tax yield per head in the county, as has the
highest % of domestic properties in the highest value bands
and lowest on the lowest value band.
Population Change:
Based on recent trends, South Northamptonshire is projected
to increase by 7.4% between 2014 and 2024 (versus 9% county
and 7.5% England averages). The largest proportion of this
change is forecasted to be people coming to live in South
Northamptonshire from other parts of the UK followed by a
small proportion of natural change (net births minus deaths).
The relatively small proportion of natural change is likely due
to the relatively low fertility rate in South Northamptonshire
and relatively high proportion of over 65s within its population
(joint highest in county).
At least another 7,000 new houses are being planned in South
Northamptonshire up to 2019, equivalent to a 19% increase in
the current number of domestic properties. This compares to a
high of 35% in Daventry and Corby and low of 10% in East
Northants.
South Northamptonshire District
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
At primary level, the additional pupil yield from new housing
developments will have the greatest impact on pupil numbers,
bearing in mind the relatively low fertility rate. Not including
new developments the projected increase in primary pupil
numbers is just 1.9%. This will be absorbed partly by the
existing surplus capacity, some through adding capacity to
existing schools and some by creating two new primary schools
in South Northamptonshire up to 2020. Whereas, at secondary
level, current surplus capacity is expected to be able to cope
with any increases in pupil numbers.
The relatively low (lowest in county) rate of 0-18 year olds
within the Children’s Social Care caseload, proportion of 0-19
year olds within its population (second lowest in county) and
projected 0-18 population growth in South Northamptonshire
(third lowest in county), suggests a below average (relatively
low) impact on Children’s Social Care services in the future,
adding an estimated 8 people or 3.6% aged 0-18 to the current
caseload (county average = 8.7%).
South Northants Summary
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
The rate of long-term Adult Social Care clients in South
Northamptonshire is lowest in the county (Apr-Dec 2016), as is
the rate of long-term Older People’s Teams clients.
This is likely heavily influenced by health and living conditions,
eligibility and affluence. As such, South is the least deprived
Borough/District in Northamptonshire with regards to the
Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) and
one of the least deprived nationally in 300th place of 326
districts/ boroughs/ unitaries (1 being most deprived). It is
worth noting that life expectancy (at birth and at age 65) is
significantly higher than the national average – 2012-14), the
average age of a new residential (care home) client in South
Northamptonshire is the highest in the county and the average
time a client spends in residential care is one of the longest in
the county.
South Northamptonshire is the joint highest of the districts in
terms of proportion of over 65s within its population at 19.9%.
By 2024, it is estimated that the District’s over 65s population
will grow by 29.5% (3rd highest in county), above the county
and England averages. However, South Northamptonshire has
the lowest rate per 10,000 population of long-term Adult Social
Care Older People’s Teams clients in the county. Therefore the
future impact of population growth on services will be
influenced by the increase in volume rather than the rate and
therefore will be fairly average (medium impact) adding 111
people aged 65+ or 30.0% to the current number of clients
within the Older People’s Teams (county average = 27.6%).
South Northamptonshire District
Wider determinants:
South Northamptonshire’s residents appear to be the most
prosperous in the county and perform better than the national
(England) average with regards to many of the main economic
indicators. This includes higher than average earnings and rate
of increase in earnings, higher than average employment rate,
lower than average Job Seekers Allowance claimant rate,
higher than average adult qualification levels and school
attainment, higher than average levels of self-employment and
proportion working in (assuming higher average pay)
managerial and professional occupations, and no areas within
20% most deprived nationally.
South Northamptonshire has also experienced higher than
average jobs growth in recent years, highest in county (2012 to
2015). It is important to note that the ratio of jobs to residents
in South Northamptonshire is relatively low (2nd lowest in
county). However, two thirds of working age residents find
employment outside of South Northamptonshire and a
relatively small proportion of residents are out of work. Whilst
South Northamptonshire has a higher % of residents with
degree level qualifications and above compared to all but two
of it’s immediate neighbours, residents appear relatively well
placed to compete for jobs in other areas, including Milton
Keynes and Cherwell where average workplace earnings are
higher than in South Northamptonshire.
Wellingborough Summary
Local Taxation:
Wellingborough yields the 2nd lowest of combined per head
Council Tax and Business Rates income in the county at £778
per head compared to a low of £705 in East Northamptonshire
and high of £1,020 in Daventry. Per head Council tax is second
lowest in the county due to the Borough’s relatively high
number of properties in the lowest Council tax value bands and
low number of properties in the highest value bands.
Population Change:
Wellingborough’s population is projected to increase by a
below average 5.7% between 2014 to 2024 (versus 9% county
and 7.5% England averages), joint lowest in the county.
Population growth in Wellingborough is forecasted to be driven
by natural change (net births minus deaths), followed by net
international migration, with no net within UK migration. A
decrease in net UK migration has been forecasted. This is likely
due to Wellingborough’s relatively high fertility rate and higher
than average life expectancy at age 65. At least another 6,000
new houses are being planned in Wellingborough up to 2019
(equivalent to a 18% increase in the current number of
domestic properties, compared to a high of 35% in Corby and
Daventry and low of 10% in East Northamptonshire).
Wellingborough
Impact on Services - Children and Young People:
There are plans for at least two new primaries and a new
secondary school in the Borough to meet the needs of the
6,000+ new households. The pupil yield from new housing
developments is expected to have the biggest impact on
numbers of primary school age children. Not including new
developments the projected increase in primary pupil numbers
is just 1%, lowest in the county (compared to a high of 9% in
Kettering). At secondary level, pupil’s on roll are projected to
increase by 15.8%, not incl. new housing development,
(compared to a high of 22.7% in Northampton and low of 5.3%
in Daventry), however there is already significant surplus
capacity to absorb much of this rise.
The relatively high (2nd highest in county) rate of 0-18 year olds
within the Children’s Social Care caseload coupled with the
projected relatively low 0-18 population growth in
Wellingborough, suggests that the impact on Children’s Social
Care services in the future will not be as high as in other areas
(medium impact), adding an estimated 27 people or 4.3% aged
0-18 to the current caseload (county average = 8.7%).
Wellingborough Summary
Impact on Services – Adult Social Care:
Wellingborough's rate of long-term Adult Social Care clients in
2016 (Apr-Dec) was also above the county average and highest
in the county, largely due to an above average rate of clients
allocated to the ‘Younger People’s Team’.
The rate of long-term clients allocated to the Older People’s
Teams clients is, in contrast, only the 3rd highest in the county.
Interestingly, Wellingborough is the 3rd most deprived Borough/
District in Northamptonshire with regards to the Income
Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI).
Wellingborough has a higher than average life expectancy at
age 65, and correspondingly, Wellingborough is joint 2nd highest
in the county in terms of the average age of a new residential
(care home) client.
Wellingborough’s proportion of over 65s within its population is
similar to the county average, but projected to increase by the
smallest % (22.9%) in the county by 2024. Therefore the
increase in the over 65s population will have a below average
(low-med) impact on Adult Social Care Services, adding an
estimated 103 people aged 65+ or 22.3% to the current
number of clients within the Older People’s Teams (county
average = 27.6%).
Wellingborough
Wider determinants:
Skills is an issue for the Borough at all levels. Wellingborough
has a lower % of working age residents with degree level
qualifications and above compared to all its immediate
neighbouring Districts and Boroughs and the highest % with no
qualifications, which will likely be impacting on the area’s lower
than average level of earnings (2nd lowest in the county and
below the England average) and higher than average Job
Seekers Allowance Claimant rate (2nd highest in county). The
future does not look brighter. Attainment in Wellingborough
schools is below average (county and England) at end of
Reception year, KS2 and KS4 and the quality of schools appears
to be an issue at both primary and secondary level.
Although the availability/density of jobs appears reasonable
compared to other areas of the county (3rd highest in county).
Wellingborough has not seen a growth job numbers in recent
years, in contrast to other areas of the county (up to a high of
+4.1%). In the main, those industries in which
Wellingborough’s largest proportions of jobs are concentrated
appear to have stagnated in recent years.