Rural Development is Getting Harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
Presentation to the session on
Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks
Ontario East Municipal Conference
September 10, 2014
Kingston
Ray D. Bollman
[email protected]
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
1
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer
potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population
decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants
in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
•
the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June,
2013; and
•
Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic
Region since September, 2005
2
[email protected]
Rural Development is getting harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• Components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
– International immigration
Generally, migration is the
largest component of
population change across
non-metro Ontario
[email protected]
3
Potential labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) up to 2025
due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants
per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, ONTARIO
300
Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent
of potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)
Historical data
L: Low growth
250
Medium1 19812008 trends
Medium2 20062008 trends
200
Medium3 19881996 trends
150
Medium4 20012006 trends
High growth
100
A1 replacement
fertility
50
A2 zero
immigration
A3 1%
immigration
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.
[email protected]
4
Demographic replacement of working age population
fell below 100% in 2009, non-metro Ontario
250
Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age)
as a percent of number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)
200
150
100
Metro
50
Non-metro
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro.
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.
*
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5
Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by demographic
replacement of working age population, 2013
Number of potential labour market entrants
(10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of the
number of potential labour market retirees
(55 to 64 years of age)
Ottawa
Prescott & Russell
Frontenac
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry
Hastings
Renfrew
Lennox & Addington
Leeds & Grenville
Lanark
Peterborough
Northumberland
Kawartha Lakes
Prince Edward
Haliburton
95
86
79
78
77
75
74
71
70
69
67
65
54
41
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 951-0062.
[email protected]
6
Rural Development is getting harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• This implies labour market growth only from:
• Net in-migration from elsewhere in
Canada; or
• International immigration
[email protected]
7
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
– International immigration
[email protected]
8
Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by percent change in total population
from 2012 to 2013
Percent change in total population
Census
Division
ID
3546
3511
3506
3502
3516
3514
3510
3515
3507
3509
3501
3547
3512
3513
Census Division name
Haliburton
Lennox & Addington
Ottawa
Prescott & Russell
Kawartha Lakes
Northumberland
Frontenac
Peterborough
Leeds & Grenville
Lanark
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry
Renfrew
Hastings
Prince Edward
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.0
- 0.3
- 0.1
0.2
- 0.1
1.7
2.0
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.9
1.4
0.3
0.9
1.3
2.0
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.4
- 0.2
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.2
1.0
0.2
1.8
0.8
1.2
1.7
2.3
2.7
1.4
1.1
0.6
0.7
1.0
1.1
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.4
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.8
1.1
0.7
1.6
1.2
0.9
0.5
0.4
0.6
1.0
0.8
1.3
1.9
1.4
1.4
0.7
- 0.1
0.7
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.7
0.0
- 0.1
0.6
1.2
1.1
1.5
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.8
0.7
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.5
- 0.1
0.2
- 0.1
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.3
0.1
- 0.1 - 0.2 - 0.4
0.2
- 0.1
0.1
1.1
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.1
- 0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.1
- 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.2
- 0.1
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.1
- 0.4 - 0.3 - 0.2
0.0
- 0.1
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.0
- 0.1
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.0
- 0.3 - 0.2
- 0.9 - 0.4 - 0.8 - 0.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.4
- 0.2
0.8
0.3
- 0.6
1.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
- 0.7 - 0.9 - 0.4
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.7
1.1
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.9
- 0.2 - 0.8
Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables051-0052.
[email protected]
2012
to
2013
9
Haliburton, Ontario
19,000
Total population
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
14,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
10
Lennox and Addington, Ontario
45,000
Total population
44,000
43,000
42,000
41,000
40,000
39,000
38,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
11
Ottawa, Ontario
1,000,000
Total population
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
12
Prescott and Russell, Ontario
95,000
Total population
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
13
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
78,000
Total population
76,000
74,000
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
14
Northumberland, Ontario
86,000
Total population
84,000
82,000
80,000
78,000
76,000
74,000
72,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
15
Frontenac, Ontario
160,000
Total population
155,000
150,000
145,000
140,000
135,000
130,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
16
Peterborough, Ontario
140,000
Total population
138,000
136,000
134,000
132,000
130,000
128,000
126,000
124,000
122,000
120,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
17
Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
103,000
Total population
102,000
101,000
100,000
99,000
98,000
97,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
18
Lanark, Ontario
68,000
Total population
67,000
66,000
65,000
64,000
63,000
62,000
61,000
60,000
59,000
58,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
19
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
117,000
Total population
116,000
115,000
114,000
113,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
20
Renfrew, Ontario
105,000
Total population
104,000
103,000
102,000
101,000
100,000
99,000
98,000
97,000
96,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
21
Hastings, Ontario
140,000
Total population
138,000
136,000
134,000
132,000
130,000
128,000
126,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
22
Prince Edward, Ontario
27,000
Total population
26,000
25,000
24,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
23
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
[email protected]
24
Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario
ranked by Natural Balance (births minus
deaths) as a percent of population, 2013
Ottawa
Prescott & Russell
Frontenac
Renfrew
Hastings
Lanark
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry
Peterborough
Lennox & Addington
Leeds & Grenville
Kawartha Lakes
Northumberland
Haliburton
Prince Edward
0.48
0.26
0.07
0.04
0.00
-0.06
-0.11
-0.11
-0.13
-0.25
-0.26
-0.33
-0.48
-0.48
Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic
Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
25
Ottawa, Ontario
0.80
0.70
0.60
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
26
Prescott and Russell, Ontario
0.80
0.70
0.60
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
27
Frontenac, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
28
Renfrew, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
29
Hastings, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
30
Lanark, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
31
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
32
Peterborough, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
33
Lennox and Addington, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
34
Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
35
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
36
Northumberland, Ontario
0.50
0.40
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
37
Haliburton, Ontario
0.80
0.70
0.60
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
38
Prince Edward, Ontario
0.80
0.70
0.60
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
as a percent of the total population
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.20
-0.30
-0.40
-0.50
-0.60
-0.70
-0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
39
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than
(potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
[email protected]
40
Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) sorted by net internal
migration (i.e. migration within Canada) (July 1, 2011 to June
30, 2012) as a percent of total population
Total
Total
Net migration As percent
migration migration with other
of total
into CD out of CD
CDs
population
3546
3511
3514
3516
3502
3507
3509
3510
3515
3506
3501
3547
3512
3513
Haliburton
Lennox & Addington
Northumberland
Kawartha Lakes
Prescott & Russell
Leeds & Grenville
Lanark
Frontenac
Peterborough
Ottawa
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry
Renfrew
Hastings
Prince Edward
1,163
2,812
3,547
3,817
4,000
4,062
3,049
7,323
5,129
26,663
3,189
4,219
5,944
1,327
734
2,052
2,738
3,113
3,493
3,684
2,902
6,998
4,849
25,254
3,114
4,251
6,143
1,392
429
760
809
704
507
378
147
325
280
1,409
75
-32
-199
-65
2.47
1.77
0.96
0.94
0.58
0.37
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.15
0.06
-0.03
-0.14
-0.25
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM T ables 051-0062, 051-0063 and 051-0064.
[email protected]
41
Haliburton, Ontario
3.50
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
-3.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
42
Lennox and Addington, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
43
Northumberland, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
44
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
45
Prescott and Russell, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
46
Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
47
Lanark, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
48
Frontenac, Ontario
2.00
1.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
49
Peterborough, Ontario
2.00
1.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
50
Ottawa, Ontario
2.00
1.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
51
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
2.00
1.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
52
Renfrew, Ontario
2.00
1.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
53
Hastings, Ontario
2.00
1.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
54
Prince Edward, Ontario
3.00
2.50
Net migration into this census division
from another census division in Canada,
as a percent of total population
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
55
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
–
Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Prince Edward Census Division:
• Largest % decline in total population in 2013
• Largest % decline due to net migration in 2013
• Here we look at net migration of youth for the three
census divisions with the largest % decline in
population in 2013:
• Prince Edward -0.9%, Hastings -0.2%, Renfrew -0.1%
[email protected]
56
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
2,500
Population
15 to 19 in
1996
2,000
Prince Edward Census Division
Population
15 to 19 in
1998
Number
t=1
1,500
1,000
500
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
Population
15 to 19 in
1997
0
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
-500
-1,000
t=1
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
57
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
2,500
2,000
Population
20 to 24 in
2001
Prince Edward Census Division
Population
20 to 24 in
2004
Number
t=1
1,500
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
1,000
500
0
-500
GAP = net decline
from 2001 to 2006
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
-1,000
t=5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
58
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
2,500
Number
t=1
2,000
1,500
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
1,000
500
0
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
-500
-1,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
59
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
2,500
2,000
Number
t=1
1,500
1,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
500
0
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
-500
-1,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
60
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
2,500
2,000
1,500
Number
t=1
1,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
500
0
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
-500
-1,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
61
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
12,000
Number
t=1
10,000
8,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
6,000
4,000
2,000
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-2,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
62
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
12,000
10,000
Number
t=1
8,000
6,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
4,000
2,000
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-2,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
63
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
Number
t=1
8,000
7,000
6,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
64
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
8,000
Number
t=1
7,000
6,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
65
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
8,000
7,000
Number
t=1
6,000
5,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
66
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
8,000
7,000
Number
t=1
6,000
5,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-1,000
-2,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
67
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
10,000
Number
t=1
7,500
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
5,000
2,500
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-2,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
68
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
10,000
7,500
Number
t=1
5,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
2,500
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-2,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
69
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared to
the number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
10,000
7,500
Number
t=1
5,000
Stayers
t=1 to
t=5
2,500
Net
migrants
t=1 to
t=5
0
-2,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
[email protected]
70
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer
potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population
decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants
in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
•
the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June,
2013; and
•
Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic
Region since September, 2005
71
[email protected]
Ontario's non-metro employment was 1.24 million in
June, 2014 -- the same level as November, 2003
Number employed (,000)
(15 years of age and over)
(using a 12-month moving average)
1,350
1,300
1,250
1,200
1,150
1,100
1,050
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1,000
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Tables 282-0001 and 282-0111.
[email protected]
72
Economic Regions
3510 Ottawa (and area) Economic Region:
•
•
•
•
•
•
includes Census Divisions:
01 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties,
02 Prescott and Russell United Counties,
06 Ottawa Division
07 Leeds and Grenville United Counties ,and
09 Lanark County.
3515 Kingston – Pembroke Economic Region:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Includes Census Divisions:
10 Frontenac Management board,
11 Lennox and Addington County,
12 Hastings County,
13 Prince Edward Division, and
47 Renfrew County.
[email protected]
73
Number employed in Ontario's
Ottawa (and area) Economic Region
800
Number employed (,000)
(12-month moving average)
750
700
650
June, 2012
600
550
500
450
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1988
1989
400
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
[email protected]
74
Number employed in Ontario's
Kingston - Pembroke Economic Region
250
Number employed (,000)
(12-month moving average)
225
200
September, 2005
175
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1988
1989
150
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
[email protected]
75
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer
potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population
decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants
in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
•
the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June,
2013; and
•
Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic
Region since September, 2005
76
[email protected]
Rural Development is Getting Harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
Presentation to the session on
Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks
Ontario East Municipal Conference
September 10, 2014
Questions /
Discussion
Kingston
Ray D. Bollman
[email protected]
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
77