The problem of Pass-through Funds and Capital in Transit in FDI statistics Gerrit van den Dool MENA Conference, Istanbul, 9 November 2006 Objective and content of this training session Objective Introduction to some interpretation problems with respect to present FDI statistics A. B. C. D. Content General overview of problems/possible solutions More detailed description of the problems More detailed description of solutions Conclusion A. Overview – Problems, possible solutions The problem: users dissatisfied with current presentation of FDI (many targets, only one bullet) Solution: additional info/tables for different users One of the main targets (discussed today): Economically meaningful data on “genuine” FDI Problems are caused by several features of current FDI statistics Features of current FDI statistics (1) Directional principle Reporting economy Direct Parent 1 Affiliate 2 NETTING: 1 -/- 2 = Outward figure (participation of affiliate in parent < 10%) Outward FDI = assets -/- certain liabilities Inward FDI = liabilities -/- certain assets Features of current FDI statistics (1) The problem Directional principle Reporting economy Direct Parent 1 Affiliate 2 NETTING: 1 -/- 2 = Outward figure (participation of affiliate in parent < 10%) Some users would like to see non-netted data Other users would like to extend the netting Features of current FDI statistics (2) Capital in transit *) is included Ultimate parent Reporting economy Parent = SPE 1 Affiliate *) E.g. via SPECIAL PURPOSE ENTITIES SPE - Established for fiscal or other regulatory advantages Production and employment may be zero Features of current FDI statistics (2) The problem Capital in transit *) is included Ultimate parent Reporting economy Parent = SPE 1 Affiliate *) E.g. via SPECIAL PURPOSE ENTITIES Incoming and outgoing positions and flows may be strongly inflated Features of current FDI statistics (3) Breakdown by country/industry ? Reporting economy 1 Affiliate Parent 2 FDI statistics show direct counterpart countries Breakdowns show the country or industry of the direct counterpart (the investor or the investee) Features of current FDI statistics (3) The problem Breakdown by country/industry ? Reporting economy 1 Affiliate Parent 2 FDI statistics show direct counterpart countries Present statistics do not show the ultimate origin or destination of capital many users are interested in Summary of some major problems How to use financial data in economic analysis? Which part of outward FDI really reflects the role a country plays in the process of globalisation? Which part of inward FDI really reflects foreign interest in the reporting economy? FDI figures may have nothing to do with the reporting economy Tables that could better meet user needs (preview) Aggregates (excl. SPEs) 1a/2a. Outward / Inward (possibly redefined) 1b/2b. Positions ultimately controled by resident UIPs 1c/2c. Positions ultimately controled by non-resident UIPs Breakdown by country and industry Memo items: Total (unadjusted) assets, Assets of SPEs, Total (unadj.) liabilities, Liabilities of SPEs Conditions to be taken into account Full reconciliation between different presentations (OECD/IMF, SNA) Balance between costs and benefits Costs: reporting burden, resources of compiler Benefits: user can easily find what he wants B. More detailed discussion of the problems Current problems (1) – Pass-through via SPEs Inflation of aggregates due to empty shells Assets and liabilities may be distorted by different amounts netting not effective Exclusion is way out Reporting economy SPE Empty shell Example – The Dutch case FDI incl. and excl. SPEs - - Special reporting requirements for SPEs Legal framework, special definition Publications: tables excluding and including SPEs (equity, 2005, € billion) 1.200 600 SPEs Genuine Outward Inward The problem for counterparties of the Netherlands (NL) … Apparent FDI relationship of Middle East and North African countries with NL (2005, million $) 18.000 15.000 12.000 9.000 6.000 3.000 Equity (Assets) Equity (Liabilities) Debt (Assets) Debt (Liabilities) …is far from negligible Actual FDI relationship of Middle East and North African countries with NL (2005, million $) 18.000 SPE 15.000 Genuine 12.000 9.000 6.000 3.000 Equity (Assets) Equity (Liabilities) Debt (Assets) Debt (Liabilities) Current problems (2) – Treasury activities Inflation due to treasury centres with resident parents (onlending, liquidity management…) Debt positions between sister companies not covered by directional principle Extend the DP TRC Non-empty treasury centre Current problems (3) – Example: a take-over IIP of B B C Original situation Outward C 500 Inward ------- C After take-over (in 1 step) Outward C 500 Inward A 1200 500 NONSPE A 1200 B NONSPE 500 Interpretation problems Interpretation issues A C 1200 B NONSPE 500 Outward Inward C 500 A 1200 FDI economically relevant to B is 700, not 1200 Role of B as an independent “player” on the world stage is 0, not 500 A takeover in 2 steps would give different FDI data IIP of B C 500 B A 700 NONSPE Original situation Outward C 500 Inward ------After take-over (in 1 step) Outward C 500 Inward A 1200 After take-over (in 2 steps) Outward ------Inward A 700 How to deal with indirect control? Country B 1200 A 500 C Incoming FDI related to activity in B itself: 700 B’s role as an (independent) player in globalisation: 0 This would suggest to net Outward = 0, Inward = 700 Indirect control may even distort the data of two countries at the same time Country B 1200 A C 500 Inflation of the data of both B and A Further thorny issues … Country B 1200 A 500 C What if 1200 represented a greenfield investment? (500 could have been financed later on by portfolio capital) This would suggest to record Inward = 1200 (Outward = 0) C. Solutions that have been proposed Extend the Directional Principle Two sisters a1 and a2, same UIP A. Netting debt seems appropriate, but in whose direction? Proposal: let it depend on the controling UIP Inward UIP A Outward 1 1 a1 a2 UIP A 2 Net liabilities = 1-2 a1 a2 2 Net assets = 2-1 Sort positions by resident/non-resident control More can be done now: net all intra-company (= same UIP) positions and sort them by UIPs Inward UIP A Outward 1 1 a1 a2 UIP B 2 a3 b1 b2 2 b3 Net liabilities = 1-2 Net assets = 2-1 A proposal Exclusion of SPEs Extension of the Directional Principle No longer limited to direct links Net amount is no longer just an asset or a liability It now also informs the user about the UIP: Outward = net assets controled by resident UIPs Inward = net liabilities controled by non-res. UIPs A more detailed comparison of the current and alternative presentations Present situation - Outward = 2+4+6+8+10+14-3 - Inward = 1+5+7+9+11+13-12 X Y Z W 13 12 UIP A 14 1 UIP B a1 11 10 a2 2 3 b1 4 5 b2 SPE 9 6 a3 b3 8 7 New presentation: three additional dimensions 1. SPE/non-SPE, 2. Res/non-res UIP, 3. Intra/extra-company Step 1 – Exclude SPEs X Y Z W 13 UIP A 12 14 1 UIP B a1 11 a2 2 10 3 b1 4 5 SPE a3 9 6 8 b2 b3 7 EXCLUSION M2 M1 M2 and M4 Step 2 – Distinguish counterparties by groups and calculate … X Y Z W 13 UIP A 12 14 1 UIP B a1 11 a2 2 10 3 b1 4 5 SPE a3 9 6 8 b2 b3 7 EXCLUSION M2 M1 M2 and M4 … net assets (resident UIP) – Outward net liabilities (non-resident UIPs) – Inward X Y Z W 13 UIP A 12 14 1 UIP B a1 11 a2 2 10 3 b1 4 5 SPE a3SS 9 ADJUSTED (NET) LIABILITIES 6 8 7 b2 b3 SS ADJUSTED (NET) ASSETS EXCLUSION M2 M1 M2 and M4 Step 3 – Classify other minority interests also as inward or outward Arrows = minority interests X Y Z W 13 UIP A 12 14 1 UIP B a1 11 a2 2 10 3 b1 4 5 SPE a3SS 9 ADJUSTED (NET) LIABILITIES 6 8 7 b2 b3 SS ADJUSTED (NET) ASSETS EXCLUSION M2 M1 M2 and M4 Outward = intra-c. + extra-c.(wxyz) = (4+6-3-5) +2 Inward = intra-c.+ extra-c.(wxyz) = (9+11-10-12) +13+1-14(?) Arrows = minority interests X Y Z W 13 UIP A 12 14 1 UIP B a1 11 a2 2 10 3 b1 4 5 SPE a3SS 9 ADJUSTED (NET) LIABILITIES 6 8 7 b2 b3 SS ADJUSTED (NET) ASSETS EXCLUSION M2 M1 M2 and M4 Feasibility: “Yes/no” info to be reported Is the UIP a resident or not? Is the reporting entity an SPE or not? Is the foreign counterparty a subsidiary of the same UIP? E. Conclusion / summary Current situation - one bullet for different targets The target discussed today: the economic activity perspective; to be hit by Exclusion of SPEs Extension of netting approach (dir. principle) Breakdown by resident/non-resident UIPs Major conditions seem to be met: Full reconciliation with IMF-manual and SNA Additional information remains manageable Thank you for your attention Gerrit van den Dool
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