Strategic Considerations (Evhen Marchuk)
Ukraine fights well organized military organization,
where key command positions are manned with
Russian active duty officers
Separatist’ leadership is aware that they will be
prosecuted if conflict is resolved on Ukrainian
conditions
Putin knows that the West will not send military power
to Ukraine
Putin is not afraid of Ukraine neither economic, military
nor information power
Strategic Considerations
Putin will not loose his state power in next decade
Russian Duma fully supports Putin
Ukraine cannot stand full scale military confrontation
with Russia on its own with a little cost
Current U.S. administration will not make radical steps
right before Whit House takeover
Strategic Considerations
 Merkel’s rating has decreased recently. That will affect
next year’s DEU elections
 Brexit weakened EU unity
 Putin will try to further brake EU integrity
 Putin will continue not respecting his international
obligations in future
Strategic Considerations
Any international negotiations format without Russia
will not be effective
UN peacekeeping mission to Ukraine is hardly possible
Putin is confident that no one will use military power
against Russia
No one sees an alternative to Normandy negotiations
format