PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
EuPD Shared Service
Bonn, May 2008
Agenda
A. Background and Approach
B. Industry Analysis
1. Products
2. Players
3. Purchasers
C. Results: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
D. At a Glance: EuPD PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
Contact Information
2
A. Background and Approach
3
A.1.
Background
Industry Issues
Many established PV players are investing heavily in thin film technologies (e.g. Q-Cells, Sharp, SCHOTT),
and many new market participants are ramping up production facilities (e.g. Avancis, Malibu, Signet). According
to estimates from EuPD Research, global thin film production will grow faster than the global PV markets:
CAGR thin film capacity 2007-2010: 83%
CAGR crystalline capacity 2007-2010: 32%
CAGR global PV demand 2007-2010: 41%
Hence, the vital questions are: how realistic are the ambitious expansion plans of the PV thin film industry? Will
the thin film modules be able to compete with the crystalline competition in relevant existing market segments?
Which opportunities exist to open up new markets? Will the global demand for photovoltaic modules keep pace
with the production output boom?
Over the year 2008, a sequence of successive market entries can be expected. However, it can be expected that
not all the ramp-up announcements will be realized. At this stage of this evolving industry, first assessments on
the potential of the various thin film market entrants are possible.
The departure of the thin film technologies from their niche position is a very important development for the
global PV industry as well. For actors in this booming market, profound analysis and research backed prognosis
are crucial: after all, the wheat must still be separated from the chaff. The main trends are analyzed in this study.
4
A.1.
Background
Analytic Questions
The EuPD Research Industry Analysis PV Thin Film is a systematic analysis of the industry
structure and the competitive intensity within the PV thin film industry.
The main questions regarding products, production and purchasers are:
1. In which market segments are PV thin film modules substitute products to crystalline
modules?
2. What is the role of the supplier industry for the advancement of the industry?
3. Which roll do spill-over effects from neighboring industries play?
4. Which are the important thin film producers and what is the potential of the various market
entrants?
5. Which are the most promising country markets for PV thin film products?
6. Which are the main future trends regarding supply and demand of PV thin film modules?
7. How high is the competitive intensity of the industry?
8. Which are promising differentiation strategies?
9. Will the global demand for photovoltaic modules keep pace with the expected production
output boom?
5
A.1.
Background
Action
ƒ Contacting of 92 PV thin film companies.
ƒ Realization of interviews with ten thin film producers (100 percent of all producers) and 16 market
entrants (approximately 20 percent of all entrants)‫‏‬.
ƒ Field time: January and February 2008.
Approach
ƒ Questionnaire with 30 questions.
ƒ Detailed questions on company development and industry structure.
ƒ Operationalization of Porter’s Five Industry Forces Analysis through methodological items.
Results
ƒ Exclusive quantitative data on the assessment of the industry drivers in the PV thin film segment.
ƒ Quantification of the intensity of rivalry among existing players, the threat of new entrants and
substitute products, as well as of the bargaining power of suppliers and customers.
As the analysis is based on both, secondary and primary data, the survey results
are labeled with this EuPD icon.
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A.1.
Research Approach: Survey Participants
Source: EuPD Research 2008
Plant construction/
Ramp-Up
R&D
Pilot Production
Production >5MW
2006 (or earlier)‫‏‬
Production >25MW
Current
development
status
à
à
à
à
ƒ
ƒ
à
à
ƒ
à
ƒ
à
à
à
ƒ
Uni-Solar
Kaneka
SANYO
Würth
SHARP
First Solar
Mitsubishi
Heavy
2007
Honda
SCHOTT
ersol
Free Energy
Avancis
2008
Malibu
Johanna
Signet
Calyxo
Lambda
2009
Sontor
NexPower
CSG
Kenmos
Solar Plus
Producers
Scheuten
Genesis
CIS Solartechnik
a-Si/Tandem
CdTe
CIS/CIGS
2010 (or later)‫‏‬
Entrants
PV Flex
Year of market entry (expected)
26 companies
participated in the
quantitative
survey:
a-Si/Tandem
CdTe
CIS/CIGS
à
à
ƒ
à
ƒ
ƒ
à
à
à
ƒ
ƒ
Avancis (GER)‫‏‬
Calyxo (GER)‫‏‬
CIS Solar (GER)‫‏‬
CSG Solar (GER)‫‏‬
ersol (GER)‫‏‬
First Solar (US)‫‏‬
Free Energy (FR)‫‏‬
Genesis (HU/ESP)‫‏‬
Honda (JP)‫‏‬
Johanna (GER)‫‏‬
Kaneka (JP)‫‏‬
Kenmos (TW)‫‏‬
Lambda (MEX)‫‏‬
Malibu (GER)‫‏‬
Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries (JP)‫‏‬
NexPower (TW)‫‏‬
PV Flex (GER)‫‏‬
SANYO (JP) )‫‏‬
Scheuten (NL)‫‏‬
SCHOTT (GER)‫‏‬
SHARP (JP) ‫‏‬
Signet Solar (US)‫‏‬
Solar Plus (PT)‫‏‬
Sontor (GER)‫‏‬
Uni-Solar (US)‫‏‬
Würth (GER)‫‏‬
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B. Industry Analysis
8
Background: PV Technology Waves
Source: EuPD Research 2008
market
diffusion
DegreeDegreeof
of market
diffusion
Quelle:
EuPDResearch 2008
mass production
100
100%
%
crystalline
c-Si, mc-Si
crystalline
c-Si, mc-Si
crystalline
c-Si, mc-Si
thin film
a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
a-μc-Si,CISCdTe
While the
crystalline modules
can be expected to
rather stagnate in
the future, the
new technologies
will contribute to
the growing
product differentiation in the
PV industry.
thin film
a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
a-μc-Si,CISCdTe
thin film
a-μc-Si,CIS, CdTe
a-μc-Si,CISCdTe
organic
Cashcows
nanocrystalline
00%
%
organic
nanocrystalline
This schematic
illustration shows
the three PV
technology
groups: crystalline, thin film and
organic PV.
organic
nanocrystalline
R&D
B.1.
2007
2010
2015
time
Time
9
B.1.
Products: Further Analysis
Production costs
Differentiation:
operational behavior
Price elasticity
Research Topics
ƒ Evaluation of the degree of product
differentiation between the different PV thin
film products.
ƒ Definition of the substitutability between
crystalline and thin film modules.
ƒ Learning curve for production costs of thin film
technologies.
ƒ Definition of the threat of substitute products.
10
B.2.
Global PV Thin Film Production 2007 and 2010
In 2010, around
fifty percent of the
PV thin film
modules can be
expected come
from Asia.
Europe, especially
Eastern Germany,
has the potential
to develop further
as one of the most
important
production sites as
well as technology
clusters.
U.S. American
companies are
expected to
continue to play an
important role as
technology leaders
(First Solar, UniSolar and
Nanosolar).
11
B.2.
Producers: Further Analyses
The three turnkey providers
Positioning of companies
on the EuPD strategy matrix
Company potential rating
Research Topics
ƒ Industry structure on the supply side of the PV
thin film production.
ƒ Analysis of the PV thin film producers and
market entrants regarding strategy, industry
concentration and regional spreading.
ƒ Multidimensional company rating.
ƒ Definition of the rivalry among existing
producers.
ƒ Assessment of the threat of new entrants.
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B.3.
BCG Matrix of Country Markets
300%
Question Marks
Stars
250%
Spain
200%
Greece
Portugal
South Korea
150%
India
China
Italy
Portugal
100%
Germany
India
France
Greece
China
South Korea
The general trend
is a movement
from the
“Question Mark”
field to the “Stars”
segment.
USA
Italy
France
50%
Japan
USA
Spain
Japan
0%
0.1
1.0
-50%
Poor Dogs
2007
2010e
Germany
10.0
Diameter: Market volume (newly installed MW)
x-coordinate: relative market share (logarithmic)
y-coordinate: CAGR 2004-2007 resp. 2007-2010e
Cash Cows
-100%
A comparison of
the world’s Top
Eleven markets
was calculated by
applying the
conventional BCG
Matrix to the
global PV markets.
The relative
market share is
calculated in
relation to the
German leading
market.
However, Germany
and Spain are
expected to lower
to the Cash Cow
level, whereas
Japan and the US
are expected to
accelerate their
market growth.
13
B.3.
Purchasers: Further Analyses
Analysis and ranking of
17 country markets
Market segmentation
per technology
Detailed market
information
Research Topics
ƒ Prognosis on the future development of the
most relevant global PV markets.
ƒ Evidence on respective the market
segmentation.
ƒ Assessments on the PV thin film potential per
market.
ƒ Multidimensional rating of the top 15 country /
state markets.
ƒ Assessment of the bargaining power of the
customers.
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C. Results: Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
15
C.
Results: Porters Five Forces Industry Analysis
Competitors
New entrants
Rivalry among
producers
Threat of
new entrants
ƒ existing
manufacturers,
ƒ market entrants,
ƒ substitute
products,
ƒ suppliers and
ƒ customers.
Competitive intensity
of PV thin film industry
Customers
Substitutes
Bargaining power
of customers
Threat of substitute
products
Suppliers
The analytic tool
developed by
Michael E. Porter
divides the driving
factors of an
industry into five
forces:
Each competitive
force is being
analyzed. Taken
together, the
assessment gives a
holistic picture of
the current market
situation.
Bargaining power of
suppliers
16
C.
Results: Competitive Intensity
Porter’s Industry
Analysis 2008 and 2010
Connecting points for
strategy formulation
Development of global PV
production and demand
Research Topics
ƒ Assessment of the competitive intensity of the
PV thin film industry by applying a Porter’s Five
Forces Analysis.
ƒ Evaluation of the estimations on global
production output with regard to the
development of demand.
ƒ Development of scenarios on the further
market development.
ƒ Identification of connecting points for strategy
formulation.
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D. At a Glance: EuPD PV Thin Film Industry Analysis
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D.1.
Unique Selling Proposition
The EuPD Research PV Thin Film Industry Analysis delivers…
ƒ Assessments on the international PV thin film markets with a long-standing research background
in the photovoltaic industry.
ƒ Reliable evidence on the basis of a quantitative survey with all important companies.
ƒ Systematic analyses of the competitive intensity of the industry.
ƒ Special focus on the developments on the demand side.
ƒ Connection points for strategy formulation and implementation.
Study Highlights
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Profound information on the industry players, the sales markets and the supplying companies.
Capability rating of the established companies and new entrants.
Country market potential rating.
Quantification of Porter’s Five Forces.
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Agenda: Industry Analysis PV Thin Film
A. Preliminary Notes
D. Purchasers
1.
2.
1.
1.1
1.2
2.
2.1
2.2
3.
Background
Research Approach
B. Products
1.
2.
Thin Film vs. Crystalline: Product Differentiation
Thin Film vs. Crystalline: Price Differentiation
Market Segmentation
Customer Group Segmentation
Geographic Segmentation
Country Market Potential Analysis
Overview and Potential Rating
Country Markets in Europe, USA and Asia
Global Demand for PV 2007-2010
C. Production
1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
2.
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
3.
Supply Side
Production Processes and Spillover Effects
Supply Companies and Industry Concentration
Outlook on Security of Supply
Producers
Production Clusters 2007 – 2010
Market Shares and Degree of Concentration 2007 – 2010
Brand Awareness of Producers and Entrants
Strategic Groups of Producers and Entrants
EuPD Company Capability Rating
PV Thin Film Production Output 2007 - 2010
E. Porter Analysis
1.
2.
Competitive Intensity
Strategic Options
Appendix: Country Profile Sheets
Editorial
20
D. Contact Information
21
Editorial
EuPD Research
Adenauerallee 134
53113 Bonn
Telephone +49 (0) 228-971 43-0
Fax +49 (0) 228-971 43-11
[email protected]
www.eupd-research.com
Contact
Markus Wackerbeck
Head Energy and Utilities
[email protected]
Stephan Franz
Project Manager
[email protected]
EuPD Research® is a brand of HOEHNER RESEARCH & CONSULTING GROUP GmbH.
Member of ESOMAR World Research
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