An Introduction to International Economics Chapter 10: Balance of Payments Dominick Salvatore John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 1 Balance of payments • The balance of payments provides a summary statement of international transactions for a nation for a specified period of time. • The balance of payments converts international transactions into dollar terms at the going rate of currency exchange. Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 2 Key categories • Credit transactions – Transactions that involve receipt of payments from foreign sources. – Major types • Exports of goods and services • Capital inflows – Increases in foreign assets in a nation – Decreases in a nation’s assets abroad Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 3 Key categories • Credit transactions • Debit transactions – Transactions that involve payment to foreign sources. – Major types • Imports of goods and services • Capital outflows – Increases in a nation’s assets abroad – Decreases in foreign assets in a nation Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 4 Double entry bookkeeping • In balance of payment accounting, each international transaction is recorded twice – once as a credit, once as a debit. • Examples – $500 in exports to be paid in 3 months time Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs Credit (+) Goods export Capital outflow Debit (-) $500 $500 10 - 5 Double entry bookkeeping • Examples – $500 in exports to be paid in 3 months time – $200 spent by a US tourist in London on services Credit (+) Service import Capital outflow Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs Debit (-) $200 $200 10 - 6 Double entry bookkeeping • Examples – $500 in exports to be paid in 3 months time – $200 spent by a US tourist in London on services – $100 in US government foreign aid given to the government of a developing nation Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs Credit (+) Unitlateral transfer Capital outflow Debit (-) $100 $100 10 - 7 Double entry bookkeeping • Examples – $500 in exports to be paid in 3 months time – $200 spent by a US tourist in London on services – $100 in US government foreign aid given to the government of a developing nation – $400 in foreign stocks paid for by increasing foreign bank balances in the U.S. Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs Credit (+) Capital outflow (stock) Capital inflow (bank balance) Debit (-) $400 $400 10 - 8 The balance of payments for the U.S. • 2003 data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in billions of U.S. dollars – WWW link Exports of goods and services and income receipts Exports of goods and services 1,020.5 Goods, balance of payments basis 713.1 Services 307.4 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts 12.5 Travel 64.5 Passenger fares 15.7 Other transportation 31.8 Royalties and license fees 48.2 Other private services 133.8 U.S. Government miscellaneous services 0.8 Income receipts 294.4 Income receipts on U.S.-owned assets abroad 291.4 Direct investment receipts 187.5 Other private receipts Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 1,314.9 99.1 U.S. Government receipts 4.7 Compensation of employees 3.0 10 - 9 The balance of payments for the U.S. Exports of goods and services and income receipts Exports of goods and services 1,314.9 1,020.5 Goods, balance of payments basis 713.1 Services 307.4 Transfers under U.S. military agency sales contracts 12.5 Travel 64.5 Passenger fares 15.7 Other transportation 31.8 Royalties and license fees 48.2 Other private services U.S. Government miscellaneous services Income receipts Income receipts on U.S.-owned assets abroad Direct investment receipts Other private receipts 133.8 0.8 294.4 291.4 187.5 – These factors show the source of total service exports. • Income receipts are primarily income earned on past investment activities abroad. 99.1 U.S. Government receipts 4.7 Compensation of employees 3.0 Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs • Service exports 10 - 10 The balance of payments for the U.S. Imports of goods and services and income payments Imports of goods and services Goods, balance of payments basis Services -1,778.1 -1,260.7 -256.3 -25.1 Travel -56.6 Passenger fares -21.0 Other transportation -44.8 Royalties and license fees -20.0 Other private services -85.8 Income payments Income payments on foreign-owned assets in the United States Direct investment payments Other private payments U.S. Government payments Compensation of employees Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs -67.4 -1,517.0 Direct defense expenditures U.S. Government miscellaneous services Unilateral current transfers, net U.S. Government grants -21.9 U.S. Government pensions and other transfers -5.3 Private remittances and other transfers -40.2 -3.0 -261.1 -252.6 -68.7 -111.9 -72.0 -8.5 10 - 11 Balance of payments for the U.S. • Summary accounts – Merchandise trade balance = - $548 billion • Goods exports – goods imports – Trade balance = - $497 billion • Exports of goods and services – imports of goods and services – Income balance = $33 billion – Current account = -$531 billion • Trade balance + income balance + unilateral transfers Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 12 The balance of payments for the U.S. U.S.-owned assets abroad, net -283.4 U.S. official reserve assets, net Gold 1.5 … Special drawing rights 0.6 Reserve position in the International Monetary Fund 1.5 Foreign currencies U.S. Government assets, other than official reserve assets, net U.S. credits and other long-term assets Repayments on U.S. credits and other long-term assets U.S. foreign currency holdings and U.S. short-term assets, net -0.6 • Direct investment 0.5 -7.3 8.0 -0.2 U.S. private assets, net -285.5 Direct investment -173.8 Foreign securities -72.3 U.S. claims on unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S. non-banking concerns -28.9 U.S. claims reported by U.S. banks, not included elsewhere -10.4 Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs • Main portfolio investment items 10 - 13 The balance of payments for the U.S. Foreign-owned assets in the United States, net 829.2 Foreign official assets in the United States, net 248.6 U.S. Government securities U.S. Treasury securities Other 194.6 169.7 24.9 Other U.S. Government liabilities -0.6 U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks, not included elsewhere 49.4 Other foreign official assets Other foreign assets in the United States, net Direct investment • Direct investment 5.1 580.6 39.9 U.S. Treasury securities 113.4 U.S. securities other than U.S. Treasury securities 251.0 U.S. currency 16.6 U.S. liabilities to unaffiliated foreigners reported by U.S. nonbanking concerns 84.0 U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks, not included elsewhere 75.6 Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs • Main portfolio investment items 10 - 14 Balance of payments for the U.S. • Summary accounts – – – – – Merchandise trade balance = - $548 billion Trade balance = - $497 billion Income balance = $33 billion Current account = -$531 billion Financial account balance = $544 billion Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 15 Balance of payments for the U.S. • Summary accounts – – – – – – Merchandise trade balance = - $548 billion Trade balance = - $497 billion Income balance = $33 billion Current account = -$531 billion Financial account balance = $544 billion The balancing factor: statistical discrepancy • Arises from the mis-recording of items in the balance of payments accounts • Statistical discrepancy = - $12 billion Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 16 The ORSB • The Official Reserve Settlement Balance (ORSB) measures the change in U.S. official reserve assets and the change in foreign official reserve assets in in the U.S. • The ORSB accommodates for a deficit or surplus in autonomous transactions (transactions that occur for business or profit motives). Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 17 Historical values Quarterly Balance on Net Exports 20 Billions Jan-04 Jul-98 Jan-93 Aug-87 Feb-82 Aug-76 Mar-71 -40 Sep-65 -20 Mar-60 0 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 -160 Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 18 Historical values Quarterly Capital Outflows 100 50 Jan-04 Jan-93 Feb-82 -100 Mar-71 Billions -50 Mar-60 0 -150 -200 -250 -300 -350 Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 19 Historical values Quarterly Capital Inflows 500 400 Billions 300 200 100 Jan-04 Jan-93 Feb-82 Mar-71 -100 Mar-60 0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 20 Historical values Quarterly Net Capital Flows 200 Billions 150 100 50 Jan-04 Jan-93 Feb-82 Mar-71 -50 Mar-60 0 Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dale R. DeBoer University of Colorado, Colorado Springs 10 - 21
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