Chapter 10:
Elections and Campaigns
Basics / Introduction
Basics / Introduction
 Nomination Phase
 USA
○ Individual effort
○ Parties are labels more than organizations
(in the minds of the electorate)
 Europe
○ The parties select candidates who are eligible to
run
under the party banner
○ The parties place candidates names on the ballots

Election to Office Phase
Presidential vs. Congressional
Campaigns

Size
 Presidential takes more time
 Presidential takes more money

Competitiveness
 Presidential is far more competitive
 Winner typically wins with less than 55% of
the vote
 Congressional incumbents win with more
than 60% of the vote
Presidential vs. Congressional
Campaigns

Voter turnout
 Presidential elections have higher turnout
 Off-year congressional elections have low
turnouts
○ Candidates must appeal
to the more motivated
voter
○ The more motivated
voter is often the
more partisan voter
○ This helps incumbents
Presidential vs. Congressional
Campaigns

Close connections to constituents which
congressmen have which presidents
don’t have
 Get credit for federal dollars which are
pumped into local economy
 They can send letters with the FRANKING
privilege which keeps them in the minds of
the electorate
 Can visit hometown (voting district) each
weekend
Presidential vs. Congressional
Campaigns

Congressional deniability
 The mess in Washington isn’t my fault – it’s
everybody else!
 Runs as an individual – can claim to be in
DC for change and not just a party pawn
(unless the party is very popular!)

Helps to explain high
incumbent victory rates
 Services
 Deniability
 Low turnout
Presidential vs. Congressional
Campaigns

Connections
 Congressmen can face the wrath of angry
voters!
○ If something tanks in the nation
 Economy
 Security
○ The party in power can
take a hit in elections
 Party in control of Congress
 Party in control of the White House
Presidential vs. Congressional
Campaigns

Connections
 Coattails
○ Congressmen can get votes by being in the
same party as a popular candidate running for
president
○ This USED to be very important
○ Races are more independent of each other
than ever before
Running for President

Get Mentioned
 For the unknown candidate
○ Send out some press statements – testing the waters
 “I haven’t ruled out a run.”
 “I’m thinking about running.”
○ Be coy
 It’s good to be associated with something big
○ A famous name
○ Identification with major laws
○ Big state governor
Running for President

Make Time
 To raise money
○ Individual donations
○ PACs and SUPERPACs
○ Federal grants
Running for President

Make Time
 Organize your team
○ Fund-raising staff
○ Lawyers
○ Accountants
○ Press secretary
○ Travel agent
○ Speech writers
○ Position analysts
○ et alia
Running for President

Make Time
 Develop strategy and theme
○ Incumbents defend / challengers attack
○ Tone
 Vote for me, I’m good
 Don’t vote for her, she’s no good!
○ Theme
 Settle on a main issue
 Create a catchy “sound bite”
- A chicken in every pot
- Change we can believe in
- He kept us out of war
- Don't change horses in the middle of a stream
Running for President

Make Time
 Decide on your timing
○ Which primaries do you want to focus on
 Hit the early ones?
- Iowa (caucus)
- New Hampshire
 Wait for the bigger state primaries or big dates?
- South Carolina
- Super Tuesday
Running for President

Make Time
 Decide what type of voter to target
○ Your base will vote for you
○ Figure out who you can sway
Running for Congress

You’ll most likely be running against an
incumbent (unless you are the incumbent)
 No term limits to open-up seats
 Odds are stacked against challengers
Running for Congress
 Constitution
 Dictates
○ Age
 Senate = 30 yrs
 House = 25 yrs
○ Residency of state/district represented
 Silent about
○ Who is eligible to vote
○ How House districts will be divided up
Running for Congress

House Districts
 Originally states had “at large” representation
 Districting developed later
○ Some districts were multi-representative
○ Later all districts become single-representative
********
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Running for Congress

Problems with districting
****
****
 Malapportionment
○ Unequal population in districts
○ Smaller districts = political advantage
 Gerrymandering
**
**
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Running for Congress

Fixing the Problems
 Congress
○ Sets the max number for the House (435)
○ Allocation of seats to the states
 Formula based on population
 Census taken every 10 years
 States
○ Determine the size of the congressional districts
○ Determine the shape of congressional districts
 SCOTUS*
○ Wesberry v Sanders
 1964
 State districting must follow rules (Article 1; Sect. 2)
Running for Congress

Winning the primary
 Collect enough signatures to get on the ballot
 Get a plurality of the votes
 Mostly out of party hands

“Sophomore Surge”
 Gain strength after first election
 Perks of office help
○ Franking
○ Trips home
○ News coverage
○ Services and pork
○ Perks are self-serving not party-serving
Running for Congress

Staying in office
 Keeps representatives closely tied to local
concerns
 Party leaders have weak influence
 Effects on policy making
○ Must do as much for constituents
○ Serve on committees
Running for Congress

Who are representatives?
 Delegates – vote the will of the constituents
 Trustees – vote their own best judgment
(what is best for the country and district?)
 Partisan – vote the will of the party
 Politico – vote for what will keep me in office
Seeking Office

Primary elections
 Comes first
 Candidates vie for
party title to run for office
 Sports analogy
○ Semi-finals
○ Elimination rounds
 Voters tend to be more ideologically strict
○ Cater to the extremes of the party
○ Some of those concessions will alienate
moderates
Seeking Office

State variations
 Closed primary
○ Only party members can vote on the party ticket
○ 40 states
○ Includes PA
 Open primary
○ Vote on either party ticket
○ But only in ONE party
Seeking Office

State variations
 Blanket primary
○ “Free Love” primary
○ Can vote on either party ticket
○ May split vote for different offices
 Runoff primary
○ If no one gets a majority (50% +1)
○ Top two battle head-to-head
 Caucuses exist for some states
Seeking Office

Presidential primary variations
 Delegate selection only
○ Choose the delegates who will attend the national
convention
○ Delegates may or may not have to list their
preference
Seeking Office

Presidential primary variations
 Delegate selection with advisory
○ Vote for delegate
○ Vote for your favorite candidate to “advise”
delegates (beauty pageant)
○ Delegates may or may not vote according to
your preference
 Binding presidential preference
○ Voters indicate which candidate they want
○ Delegates are legally bound to vote for that
candidate
Seeking Office

General elections
 Comes after the primaries
 Nominees vie for the actual office
 Sports analogy: Championship Game
 Statements made in the primaries will come
back to haunt nominees
Campaign Issues

Position Issues
 Controversial
 Clear-cut differences between candidate
positions
 Voters vote for the candidate with similar
feelings
The Media and Campaigns

Rules for TV
 Short ads
○ Called “Spots”
○ Used often to cancel each other out
○ Often contain good information
 News Stories
○ Called “Visuals”





Cost little
Musts be appealing/exciting
Speeches are boring
Must be short with sound bites
Must be done before 3 p.m.
○ Not very informative
The Media and Campaigns

Debates
 Incumbents don’t like them
○ They give unknowns publicity
○ One mistake can blow a lead
 Prefer stock speeches
○ Sets out themes
○ Well-vetted
○ Sometimes used to get around questions
during debates
The Media and Campaigns

Bluntness
 Voters say they want it
 Voters react negatively when they get it

FCC rules on free air time
 1996 decision
 Equal time to candidates who request it
 Limit free time to major candidates
 Hurts third-party candidates
The Media and Campaigns

Direct Mail
 Candidate can specifically target an audience
 Candidate can specifically craft the message

Media Consultants
 Before
○ Party leaders would handle publicity
○ As party leaders, they HAD to get candidates in
office to control policy
 Now
○ PAID consultants
○ Work for money, not for ideology or party
○ May switch sides in future (for the money!)
Money and Campaigns

Sources of money
 Private donors
○ Citizens
○ Interest groups
 Single-interest groups
- NRA
- Sierra Club
- Et alia
 PACs
- Political Action Committee
- $5,000 max donation to A CANDIDATE
- Changes due to Citizens United decision
Money and Campaigns

Sources of money
 Federal Government
○ Presidential GENERAL election only
○ Dollar for dollar matching funds
 From individual donors
 No more than $250.00 from each donor
 Serious candidates only
- Must get at least $5,000
- From at least 20 different states
○ It’s a lump sum given to parties
○ Often refused due to limitations*
Money and Campaigns

Campaign Finance Rules
 1973
○ Limited individual contributions
○ Names must be made public
○ PACs could be formed
 Covers
- Corporations
- Labor Unions
 Guidelines
- At least 50 members
- Donations to individual candidates capped at $5,000
- Donations to parties capped at $15,000
Money and Campaigns

Campaign Finance Rules
 1973
○ Problems
 Independent expenditures
- PACs have wiggle room
- Unlimited spending
- As long as it is “independent” of candidate
direction
-
http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/3pwzi5/colbert-super-pac---not-coordinating-with-stephen-colbert
- Soft money
- Money given to parties
- Cannot be used for individual candidates
Money and Campaigns

Campaign Finance Rules
 Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act
“Mc-Cain-Feingold”
○ 2002
○ Banned soft money
 To national parties
 From corporations and unions
○ Individual contribution limit raised to $2,000
○ PAC contributions limited
Money and Campaigns

Campaign Finance Rules
 Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act Problems
○ Freedom of Speech?????
○ Ways to circumvent the law
 527 Organizations
- Designed to funnel soft money
- Can spend their OWN money
- Cannot coordinate with a candidate or party
- Cannot lobby for a candidate (by name)
 Citizens United SCOTUS decision
makes most of this invalid now
Winning

Factors in presidential elections
 Factors that matter
○ Money!
○ Party affiliation
 80% of the vote reliably goes to declared party
 20% of the voters are true “swing voters”
 Party v Party
- Democrats vote for Republicans more than
Republicans vote for Democrats
- Republicans get more of the Independent vote
- Republicans vote at a higher rate than Democrats
Winning

Factors in presidential elections
 Factors that matter
○ THE ECONOMY
○ Security
○ Character
 Factors that don’t really matter much
○ VP nominee
○ Political reporting
○ Religion
○ Abortion
 Matters in primaries
 Canceled out in generals
Winning

Congressional Races
 MONEY MATTERS!
 Incumbent advantage
○ Franking privilege
○ Track record
○ Travel expenses
Winning

Congressional Races
 Voting on the Issues
○ Prospective voting
 Looking into the future
 Takes effort
- Learn of major problems looming ahead
- Learn the candidates’ projections on solutions
 Political activists do this
Winning

Congressional Races
 Voting on the Issues
○ Retrospective voting
 Looking back into the recent past
- Vote for incumbents if things are going well
- Vote against incumbents if things are going badly
 Of GREAT importance in elections
 Based largely on state of economy
Winning

The Campaign
 Fires up the base! .
 Gives the people .
(esp. swing voters) .
a chance to:
.
○ See candidates in action
○ See how candidates deal
with pressure
○ Judge the character of
the candidate
Winning Coalitions

Hold your base – trends, not a guarantee!
Democrats
Republicans
African-Americans
White Southerners
Jews
Catholics
Non-Cuban Hispanics
Cubans
Workers
•Businessmen
•Professionals
•Farmers
•Poor People – esp.
older, white poor

Lure the swing voters
Elections and Policy Change
Policy changes very slowly
 Designed to be resistant to incredible
swings
 The election of one congressman or
president doesn’t have a huge and quick
impact
 Checks and balances hold it back
