Greater Phoenix 2100:
Building a National Urban
Environmental Research Agenda
Jonathan Fink
Vice Provost for Research
Arizona State University
Greater Phoenix 2100
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What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100?
How do we describe Phoenix today?
How do we characterize explosive growth?
What tools can help forecast our future?
Can science help answer these questions?
What’s being done nationally?
• Los Alamos Labs Urban Security Project
• USGS Urban Dynamics Project
• NSF Urban Research Initiative
• Various university institutes
• State/regional “smart growth” initiatives
• Few Coordinated Activities
Plume dispersion over N. Dallas
modeled with HOTMAC-RAPTADGASFLOW system
Los Alamos Lab
Urban Security
Initiative
U.S. urban growth: 1975-1995
USGS
Urban
Dynamics
Research
Program
What’s missing?
• Coordinated Federal effort
• Federal/state/private/academic collaborations
• Linkage of social, biological, physical
• Scientific foundation for growth debates
• Tools for forecasting impact of growth
NSF Central Arizona – Phoenix
Long-Term Ecological Research
• Decade-scale monitoring project
• 48 co-investigators from 14 departments
• ASU partners with State, cities, federal labs
• Complement to Baltimore LTER
• Ideal platform for urban modeling/analysis
CAP is one of two urban LTERs
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Phoenix
young city
rapid growth
arid
rugged
libertarian politics
5
Baltimore
old city
slower growth
humid
flat
activist politics
CAP LTER Objectives
• Test ecological theory in urban settings
• Better understanding of ecology of cities
• Relate ecological and sociological factors
• Archive large body of scientific data
• Engage public (K-12) in scientific discovery
• Spin off additional research opportunities
LTER-related research projects
at ASU (most > $300K/year)
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Urban airshed modeling (DOE, ADOT)
Remote sensing of 100 cities (NASA)
Urban CO2 island (NSF-URI)
Urban ecology grad. program (IGERT-NSF)
SW Center for Env. Res. & Policy (EPA)
Center for sustainable water reuse (EPA)
SUPERPAVE (US DOT)
Benign semiconductor manufacturing (NSF)
Why study Phoenix?
• Geographically delimited
– Resource constrained (water, power)
– Relatively simple boundary conditions
• Change is very rapid (“An acre an hour”)
– Fastest growing county in U.S.
– Second fastest growing & fifth largest city
• Typical of arid urban west
– High tech jobs, little mass transit, cheap land
What are the boundary conditions
for modeling Phoenix?
• Spatial: city strictly limited by infrastructure
• Population: well documented, rapid growth
• Cultural: built along Hohokam canals (AD 1000)
• Topography/Geology: Basin and Range
• Water: canals, reservoirs, streams, groundwater
• Air: eastward flow, CO2 dome, “brown cloud”
• Land Use: desert
agriculture
• Economy: mining/agriculture
urban
high tech/tourism
Urban fringe sharply defined
Photo courtesy of
Ramon Arrowsmith
Maricopa County land use
1912
Maricopa County land use
1934
Maricopa County land use
1955
Maricopa County land use
1975
Maricopa County land use
1995
Remote sensing used for urban
resource management
HOUSING
POWER
HEALTH
HUD
NIEHS
URBAN
SECURITY
DOE
ADHS
APS
DOD
SRP
Motorola
ASU
TRANSPORTATION
NSF
ADOT
Biosphere
MAG
ADOA
NASA
USDA
LAND USE
NOAA
CLIMATE
USFS
BLM
Greater Phoenix
2100
AIR
ADEQ
ADOC
Lincoln
Institute
ADWR
Phoenix
DOC
DOT
USGS
EPA
Intel
MANU-
FACTURING
WATER
AGRICULTURE
FORESTS
Greater Phoenix 2100 Targets
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Physical Environment
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Air
Water
Climate
Forests
Agriculture
(EPA)
(EPA, USGS)
(NOAA)
(USFS)
(USDA)
(ADHS)
(ADOC)
(AZ DOEd)
(NIH)
(HUD)
(USDOEd)
(ASLD, Lincoln)
(APS, SRP)
(ADOT, MAG)
(Intel, Motorola)
(DOI)
(DOE)
(USDOT)
(US DOC)
(LANL, DARPA, Nat Grd)
Social Environment
– Health
– Housing
– Education
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(ADEQ)
(ADWR, ADEQ)
(Biosphere)
(ADOA)
(ADOA)
Infrastructure
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Land Use
Power
Transportation
Manufacturing
Urban Security
Greater Phoenix 2100:
Which Phoenix do we want?
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Coordinate federal/state/academic efforts
Link with similar studies of other cities
Answer questions people care about
Provide objective information
Build state-of-the-art forecasting tools
Start of urban-LTER network across USA