Top-down sales forecasting for pre

Top-down sales forecasting for
pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
7'-+*3(,-.*'
89!--*#:2#,-
:-+$!';<!!;.2-#($*+"'!#2)(#<74*53=#2)*,-!%*%#-+#(+-.%(#+"()-/-)*>>7
/!'(%,'("'(%(2'+-%,:(:-.:,():+"*)($:!*'(-%,:(<(.-%%-%.+,*.(+!/
)!??(')-*>-@-%.,:(-',():%!>!.73"()-/-)*>>7+),')-&"!.!&/!0)"!1%$+*&2-+*
2+(/2>*""'!*):/!'(%,'("'(%(2'+$:!*'(>!!;-%./!'*A2-);$*7!/(+,*<>-+:-%.*%
-#(*!/,:('(1(%2("!,(%,-*>/!',:(-',():%!>!.7!'"'!#2),B/7!2*'(-%,:(
"'!)(++!/'*-+-%.?!%(7$('()!??(%#,:*,7!22+(*3)++)#/,%,,")%14*+,:(
"'-?*'7?(*%+,!(+,*<>-+:7!2''(1(%2(/!'()*+,*%#,:(%*"">7,:(,!"#!$%
*""'!*):*+*)!%,'!>?():*%-+?,!1*>-#*,(7!2''(+2>,+ :(,!"#!$%*%#,:(
<!,,!?2"*""'!*):*'(>-;(>7,!7-(>##-//('(%,'(+2>,+<2,,:()!?"*'-+!%$->>.-1(
7!2*):*%)(,!'(/>(),!%,:('(*+!%+$:7,:(7#-//('C+!?(,:-%.,:*,$->>"'("*'(
7!2/!'#-+)2++-%.7!2''(1(%2(/!'()*+,$-,:-%1(+,!'+*%#<2+-%(++"*',%('+
6+#+#&#'(#5*+#,!$-.'/;*3#"$
5"!"!.!&/!0)"!1%$+*&2-+-?"!',*%,/!'/-%*%)-*>">*%%-%."2'"!+(++2):*+)'(*,-%.
*<2#.(,/!'7!2'+,*',2"*%#"-,):-%.,!-%1(+,!'+ :(,$!/!'()*+,-%.?!#(>+
)!1('(#-%,:-++('-(+!/$!';<!!;+*'(,:(+),')-&%,,")%14*%#,:(3)++)#/,
%,,")%14 :('(*'(?*%7!,:('/!'()*+,-%.?!#(>++2):*+,:!+(-%1!>1-%.
+,*,-+,-)*>?(,:!#+,:(6(>":-?(,:!#*%#"*%(>/!'()*+,-%.,:*,?-.:,<(?!'(
*""'!"'-*,(/!'7!2')!?"*%7*,*>*,('+,*.(
:(,!"#!$%*""'!*):2+(+*..'(.*,(#%2?<('++2):*+?*';(,+-@(.'!$,:'*,(
"(%(,'*,-!%'*,(*%#?*';(,+:*'(,!*''-1(*,*'(1(%2((+,-?*,( :(,!"#!$%
*""'!*):(%*<>(+7!2,!>-%;7!2''(1(%2((+,-?*,(+#-'(),>7,!,:(!1('*>>?*';(,
,'(%#-%*'(>*,-1(>7A2-);*%#2%)!?">-)*,(#$*7&!'7!2'1(%,2'(,!+2))((#-,-+
-?"!',*%,,!<(:(>"(#<7,:(.'!$,:)'(*,(#<7?*';(,,'(%#+,:(,!"#!$%
*""'!*):(%*<>(+7!2,!#(?!%+,'*,(,!-%1(+,!'+:!$!1('*>>?*';(,.'!$,:/2(>+
7!2'.'!$,:D+,:(+-.%-/-)*%)(!/,:(?*';(,,'(%#-%)'(*+(+,:(*,,'*),-1(%(++!/
7!2')!?"*%7*+*%-%1(+,?(%,!""!',2%-,7$->>*>+!-%)'(*+(
E(1(',:(>(++?*%7(%,'("'(%(2'+#!%!,;%!$:!$,!)'(*,(*'(*>-+,-),!"#!$%
/!'()*+,D+*'(+2>,,:(-'(+,-?*,(+>*);)'(#-<->-,7%!,!%>7$-,:-%1(+,!'+<2,*>+!
-%,('?+!/,:(-'!$%<2+-%(++">*%%-%.
<:!;2"#F!$EG ,!#!*,!"#!$%/!'()*+,
H:(%)'(*,-%.*,!"#!$%/!'()*+,?*%7"(!">(*'(,(?",(#,!#!,:(/!>>!$-%.
=+,-?*,(,:(+-@(!/,:(?*';(,-%2%-,+*%#1*>2(B%#2+,'7*%*>7+,/-'?+
)*%!/,(%"'!1-#((*+->7*))(++-<>(?*';(,+-@(%2?<('+/!'>*'.(?*';(,+
=+,-?*,(,:(+:*'(!/,:(?*';(,+-@(7!2$->><(*<>(,!)*",2'(
=+,-?*,(7!2''(1(%2(<7*"">7-%.7!2'"'-)-%.+,'*,(.7,!,:(2%-,+
"'!1-#(#<77!2'?*';(,+:*'(
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
G,:(',:*%->>2+,'*,-%.:-.:>(1(>?*';(,#7%*?-)+,:(*<!1(?(,:!#-+,!!)'2#(,!
7-(>#1*>-#'(+2>,+ :(?*';(,-%,(>>-.(%)(-+%!,.'*%2>*'(%!2.:,!2+($-,:!2,
?!#('*,-%./*),!'+*%#,:('(-+,!!>-,,>(-%/!'?*,-!%*<!2,7!2')!?"*%7"'!#2),
)2+,!?('+*%#)!?"(,-,-!%,!/!>>!$,:*,*""'!*):
)*+#,!$-.'/5*+$-!+-(2$
&!'()*+,-%.-+*"'!)(++,:*,:*+<!,:-%"2,+*%#!2,"2,+4*%7*#1*%)(#
/!'()*+,-%.?(,:!#+'(>7!%+,*,-+,-)*>?(,:!#+,:*,:*1(>-,,>('(>(1*%)(/!'+?*>>
)!?"*%-(+,:*,?-.:,%!,:*1(+,*',(#,:(-''(1(%2(.(%('*,-%.*),-1-,-(+*+,:(7
$->>%!,:*1(*%7!/,:(:-+,!'-)*>#*,*,:*,,:!+(?(,:!#+'(A2-'(
:(*<+(%)(!/:-+,!'-)*>#*,*$->>?(*%,:*,7!2'/!'()*+,+?2+,'(>7!%?!'(
*++2?",-!%+*%#?(,*#*,*?*%7!/$:-):*'(<*+(#!%-%#2+,'7+,*%#*'#+!'7!2'
(I"('-(%)(*%#,:((I"('-(%)(!/,:!+(*'!2%#7!2B%-,-*>>77!2'/!'()*+,+?2+,
7-(>#*'(+2>,,:*,-+J-%,:(<*>>"*';K$:-):$->>(%*<>(7!2,!?*;(,:(%()(++*'7
*''*%.(?(%,+$-,:'(.*'#+,!>-A2-#-,7*%#)*"*)-,7">*%%-%.
4!+,+,*',2"+-%,:(LL(%1-'!%?(%,<(.-%$-,:+!?(/!'?!/"('+!%*>*%##-'(),
+*>(+*),-1-,-(+<(/!'(#(,('?-%-%.$:(,:(',!(%,('-%,!*.'((?(%,+$-,:*
?*';(,-%.-%,('?(#-*'7&!',:-+$!';<!!;$($->>*++2?(*#-'(),+*>(+?!#(>
$:(%(I">!'-%.1*'-!2+/!'()*+,-%.?!#(>+,:*,*'()2''(%,>7-%2+(
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
=*4-*($#-9.$4*+>?**>
@#-A*(+-#!;-*/#-9#+
H('()!??(%#,:*,7!2?*;(,:()'(*,-!%!/7!2''(1(%2(/!'()*+,*,(*?(//!',
*%#$!';,:'!2.:,:((I(')-+(+,:!'!2.:>7<2,*+(//-)-(%,>7*+"!++-<>(6(1(>!"-%.
7!2''(1(%2(/!'()*+,)*%<(1('7,-?()!%+2?-%.(+"()-*>>7-/%(-,:('7!2%!'
*%7!%(!%7!2',(*?:*+*%7(I"('-(%)('(>*,(#,!'(1(%2(/!'()*+,-%.
&2',:('?!'('(1(%2(/!'()*+,-%.-+*"'!)(++,:*,'(A2-'(+7!2,!)>!+(>7(I*?-%(
7!2'?*';(,*++2?",-!%+C+!?(,:-%.,:*,-+!/.'(*,<(%(/-,$:(%7!2';(7,(*?
?(?<('+*'(-%1!>1(# :(.!*>!/,:-+$!';<!!;-+,!:(>"7!2/!)2+7!2'(//!',+!%
,:("*',+,:*,*'((++(%,-*>,!+,*',2"+*%#,:2+?*;(,:(,-?(+"(%,#(1(>!"-%.
7!2''(1(%2(/!'()*+,*+"'!#2),-1(*+"!++-<>(
B$#-9#.,*'$5*+9#"2
:($!';<!!;.2-#(+*'(+,'2),2'(#2%#(',:(*++2?",-!%,:*,,:-+-+,:(/-'+,,-?(
7!2,:('(*#(':*+2%#(',*;(%*/!'()*+,-%.(I(')-+( !:(>""'!1-#()!%,(I,/!'
+!?(!/,:(-#(*+-%,:(+($!';<!!;+$(:*1()>*'-/-(#,:(-#(*+<7#(/-%-%.;(7
,('?+*%#!//('-%.'(*>$!'>#(I*?">(+B%*##-,-!%$(:*1("'!1-#(#>-%;+,!
*',-)>(+!%,:(4*53$(<+-,(&!',:-+'(*+!%7!2?*7/-%#-,(*+-(+,,!2+(,:(
$!';<!!;.2-#(+!%*)!?"2,('$-,:*%B%,('%(,)!%%(),-!%
M!!;/!',:(+(-)!%+
#(%!,(+*;(7,('?,:*,$->>'()2'-%,:(+($!';<!!;.2-#(+
-%#-)*,(+*%(I*?">(#'*$%/'!?,:(?*';(,">*)(-%!'#(',!->>2+,'*,(*%
-?"!',*%,-#(*
#(%!,(+*>-%;,!*?!'(-%#(",:*',-)>(1-#(!!',(?">*,(!%,:(4*53
$(<+-,(
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
8C%DECCD
1*23*4')*+#,!$-.'/5*+6+#+#&#'(#
-!+-(2$
F+#!-.'/!-*23*4'5*+#,!$-
N+(,:(/!>>!$-%.+,("+,!)'(*,(*,!"#!$%/!'()*+,=*):+,("-+#(+)'-<(#-%#(,*->
<(>!$
* =+,-?*,(?*';(,"!,(%,-*>
) 0'(#-),7!2'?*';(,+:*'(
< 6(,('?-%(*#!",-!%'*,(
# 6(1(>!"'(1(%2(+)(%*'-!+
!<$-.;!-#;!+>#-2*-#'-.!"
=+,-?*,-%.,:(+-@(!/,:(?*';(,-+)'-,-)*>/!'*%7+,*',2"O!2)*%(+,-?*,(,:(
?*';(,"!,(%,-*><7/!>>!$-%.,:(+(+,("+
P%!$,:("'!<>(?7!2*'(+!>1-%.
6(/-%(/!'$:!?7!2*'(+!>1-%.,:("'!<>(?-(7!2',*'.(,)2+,!?('
=+,-?*,(,:(%2?<('!/,*'.(,)2+,!?('+$:!+:*'(,:*,"'!<>(?
6(,('?-%("(%(,'*,-!%'*,(-(:!$?*%7)2+,!?('+*'(*1*->*<>(,!7!2
Q*>)2>*,("!,(%,-*>?*';(,+-@(
6)"#)"!'!+%*7$)&+4*$,")1!$$"!%'+4!%"+*17!!&+*+7!'
8$+*#%+*&2+4!#%"9!+$*:!
?G#-#+;.'#!3*2-.*'+!-#
:(%(I,+,("-+,!#(,('?-%(,:('*,(!/*#!",-!%$:-):#(+)'-<(+,:(+"((#*,
$:-):7!2'"'!#2),-+*++-?->*,(#-%,:(?*';(,">*)(
:("2'"!+(!/)*>)2>*,-%.,:(*#!",-!%'*,(-+,!#(1(>!"*%2%#('+,*%#-%.!/
?*';(,1!>2?(!%*7(*'>7<*+-+M!!;-%.*,*,7"-)*>,():%!>!.7*#!",-!%>-/()7)>(
,:((I"(),*,-!%-+,:*,7!2'/-'+,)2+,!?('+$!2>#<(J,():%!>!.7(%,:2+-*+,+K*%#
J1-+-!%*'-(+K :(7?-.:,)!?"'-+(,!!/,:(!1('*>>?*';(,*%#$!2>#<(
,:(/-'+,,!(%,(',:(?*';(,C+!?(,-?(+(1(%<(/!'(7!2'!//-)-*>>*2%):
:(%(I,)2+,!?('+*'(J"'*.?*,-+,+K-%+"()-/-)?*';(,%-):(+F!$A2-);>7,:(7
(%,(',:(?*';(,#("(%#+!%7!2'"'!#2),R+#-+'2",-1(!'-%%!1*,-1(%*,2'(B%,:(
<(.-%%-%.*1('7#-+'2",-1("'!#2),!/,(%:*+*+>!$('*#!",-!%'*,(,:*%*>(++
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
#-+'2",-1("'!#2), :(+>!$*#!",-!%'*,(-+!/,(%#2(,!,:(>*);!/*%(//-)-(%,
1*>2():*-%*%#<2+-%(++?!#(>+,!<'-%.,:(%($,():%!>!.7,!?*';(,
6)"#)"!'!+%*7$)&4)-1/$+)#!"$%'),+&!-+!14&)7)2;"!%'+4!
%"+*17!!&+*+7!' !14&)7)2;%'),+*)&7*0!1;17! <=(
4*';(,#*,*/'!?-%#2+,'7'(+(*'):)!?"*%-(+(.S*',%('B6Q :!?"+!%&'!+,
32>>-1*%?-.:,.-1(7!2*%-#(*!/:!$A2-);>7?*';(,+,:*,)!%+-+,!/7!2',*'.(,
)2+,!?('+#(1(>!"
!"#$%&'H3*2-.*'+!-#$I0*?."#29*'#$$*"!+
2*4#+
0*?."#29*'#$4!<->(":!%(+)*?(-%,!,:(?*';(,">*)(-%,:((*'>7+*+
,:(+2))(++!',!'*#-!":!%(+*%#$('(*1('7#-+'2",-1(,():%!>!.7&!',:(/-'+,
#()*#(,:("'-)(!/?!<->(":!%(+$*+1('7:-.:<7,!#*7R++,*%#*'#+#(+"-,(
,:(/*),,:*,<!,:,:(:*%#+(,+*%#,:(%(,$!';$('('(>*,-1(>72%'(>-*<>(*%#
?2):>(+++!":-+,-)*,(#,:*%,!#*7G%>71-+-!%*'-(+*%#,():%!>!.7(%,:2+-*+,+
$('(2+-%.,:("'!#2),*,,:*,"!-%,B%,:(?-#+?2):-?"'!1(#:*%#+(,+
*%#%(,$!';+$('(*1*->*<>( :(+()!?<-%(#$-,:*%($<2+-%(++?!#(>$:('(
,(>)!++2<+-#-@(#,:(:*%#+(,+-%(I):*%.(/!'>!%.,('?2+(')!%,'*),+,'-..('(#
*?2):/*+,('*#!",-!%'*,(M(++,:*%7(*'+>*,('?!<->(":!%(+:*#<((%
*#!",(#<7>*'.(+(.?(%,+!/,:(.(%('*>"!"2>*,-!%*+,:(":!%(+$(%,/'!?
<(-%.*,():%!>!.7"'!#2),,!*>-/(+,7>(+2""!',,!!>*%#/*+:-!%-,(?
*"!+2*4#+0:!,!1!>,*-)"*%(>+:*1(<((%*'!2%#+-%)(H!'>#H*'BB*%#:*1(
<((%2+(#,!'(>-*<>7.(%('*,((>(),'-)-,7-%!//.'-#>!)*,-!%+-%)>2#-%.+"*)(
-%+,*>>*,-!%+,(>()!?<*+(+,*,-!%+*%#'(?!,($(*,:('+,*,-!%+ :('(>*,-1(>7
:-.:)*"-,*>)!+,*++!)-*,(#$-,:+!>*'"*%(>+?(*%,,:*,-,$*+2%()!%!?-)*>/!'
,:(.(%('*>"!"2>*,-!%,!'(">*)((>(),'-)-,7/'!?,:(.'-#$-,:+!>*'"!$('B%
S('?*%7-%,'!#2)(#%($>(.-+>*,-!%,!(%)!2'*.("(!">(,!-%1(+,-%
#-//('(%,;-%#+!/'(%($*<>((%('.7-%)>2#-%.+!>*'"!$(' :()(%,'*>"-()(!/
,:-+>(.-+>*,-!%-+*%(>(),'-)-,7"'!#2),-!%-%)(%,-1(*;*/((#-%,*'-//,:*,
'(/>(),+,:()*"-,*>)!+,!/1*'-!2+'(%($*<>(,():%!>!.-(+$:-):?*;(+-,
"!++-<>(/!':!?(!$%('+/*'?('+*%#)!??(')-*>'(*>(+,*,(!$%('+,!?*;(*
'(*+!%*<>('(,2'%<7-%1(+,-%.-%+!>*'"*%(>+/!',:(-'"'!"(',7*%##(>-1('-%.
(>(),'-)-,7-%,!,:(.'-#3-%)(,:(%!,:('T2'-+#-),-!%+*)'!++,:($!'>#:*1(
-?">(?(%,(#+-?->*'-%)(%,-1(+,!:(>"#'-1(,:(*#!",-!%!/+!>*'"*%(>+,:(
'(+2>,-%.()!%!?-(+!/+)*>(:*1(#'-1(%#!$%,:()!+,!/,:(,():%!>!.76(+"-,(
,:('(#2)(#)!+,<*+(,:(+!>*'-%#2+,'7-++,->>7(*'+*$*7/'!?'(*):-%.?*++
?*';(,*#!",-!%)!?"*'*<>(,!?!<->(":!%(+#2(,!+2"">7):*-%)!%+,'*-%,+
3!>*'(%('.7*+*?*-%+,'(*?+!2')(!/"!$('!%>7?*;(+/-%*%)-*>+(%+(-%
,:!+(*'(*+,:*,:*1(-%)(%,-1(+,!+2""!',,:(*#!",-!%!/,:(,():%!>!.7
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
,6+#3.,-;!+>#-$9!+#
Q!?<-%-%.?*';(,+-@($-,:*#!",-!%'*,(+$->>"'!1-#(#*,*!%,:(7(*'>7?*';(,
"!,(%,-*>E!$,:(A2(+,-!%'(?*-%+F!$?2):!/,:*,?*';(,$->>7!2<(*<>(,!
)*",2'(U
B%*?*,2'(?*';(,7!2)*%)*>)2>*,(7!2'?*';(,+:*'(<7#-1-#-%.7!2''(1(%2(
<7,:((I"(),(#?*';(,+-@(F!$(1(',:*,*""'!*):#!(+%!,$!';-%*%(?('.-%.
?*';(,$-,:7!2''(1(%2(2%;%!$%
D"">7,:(*""'!*):<(>!$,!-#(%,-/7,:('(>*,-1(+:*'(!/,:(?*';(,7!2:!"(,!
*)A2-'(B%(++(%)(,:('(*'(,:'((/*),!'+,:*,#(,('?-%(,:(?*';(,+:*'(7!2$->>
*):-(1(
,:(+,'(%.,:!/7!2'1*>2("'!"!+-,-!%
,:(*?!2%,!/)*"-,*>7!2:*1(
,:((//(),-1(%(++!/7!2'?*';(,-%.
:(/!>>!$-%."*'*.'*":+(I">*-%:!$,!2+(,:(+(/*),!'+,!"'(#-),7!2'?*';(,
+:*'(L(/!'(7!2"'!)((#<(/!'($*'%(#,:*,-,-+"!++-<>(,!+"(%#*>!,!/,-?(
)!>>(),-%.,:(+2..(+,(#?*';(,-%,(>>-.(%)(L(*'-%?-%#,:*,?!+,+,*',2"+$!2>#
<(<(,,('+('1(#+"(%#-%.,-?(!%?*';(,-%.*%#+(>>-%.,:(-'"'!#2),-%+,(*#!/
+,'-1-%./!'*))2'*)7*%#)!?">(,(%(++-%,:("'!)(++<(>!$
.G#-#+;.'#A*(+2##+/+*(2
M-+,7!2'?!+,>-;(>7)!?"(,-,!'+-(,:!+()!?"*%-(+,:*,*'(*,,(?",-%.,!+!>1(
,:(+*?()2+,!?('"'!<>(?O!2)*%/-%#,:-+-%/!'?*,-!%,:'!2.:+(*'):(%.-%(+
,'*#(+:!$+*%#!'-%#2+,'7*%*>7+,+N+(,:-+>-+,!/"(('+,!)!?"*'(*%#'*,(7!2'
(//!',+<*+(#!%,:()'-,('-*-%+(),-!%+--*%#---
..G#-#+;.'#-9#,!2.-!"!-9!'3
Q*"-,*>)*%<(+"(%,!%<!,:"'!#2),#(1(>!"?(%,*%#?*';(,-%.$:-):?*;(+-,*
+-.%-/-)*%,/*),!'-%"'(#-),-%.7!2'?*';(,+:*'(4!+,)!?"*%-(+*%%!2%)("2<>-)>7
,:*,,:(7:*1(+()2'(#/2%#-%.,:'!2.:*1(%,2'()*"-,*>/-'?O!2)*%(*+->7
#(,('?-%(,:(*?!2%,!/)*"-,*>'*-+(#<71-+-,-%.,:()!?"*%7R+$(<+-,():();-%.*
,:-'#"*',7$(<+-,((.V(%,2'(L(*,!'2+-%.*+(*'):(%.-%(
&!>>!$,:(+(+,("+,!(+,-?*,(?*';(,+:*'(2+-%.)*"-,*>*,:*%#
*>>7*>>,:()*"-,*>'*-+(#<7,:("(('.'!2"
6-1-#(7!2')*"-,*><7,:(,!,*>)*"-,*>
:(!2,)!?((A2*>+7!2'(I"(),(#?*';(,+:*'(B/-%/!'?*,-!%*<!2,)*"-,*>-+%!,
*1*->*<>(,:(%2+(,:(%(I,?(,'-)?*';(,-%.(//(),-1(%(++
...G#-#+;.'#A*(+;!+>#-.'/#55#,-.&#'#$$
H:(%)!%+-#('-%.7!2'?*';(,-%."!$(',:(<(+,?(,'-),!2+(-+)*>>(#J+:*'(!/
1!-)(K3:*'(!/1!-)(3GV-+*?(,'-),:*,-%#-)*,(+,:('(>*,-1(*?!2%,!/?(#-*
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
)!1('*.(7!2'()(-1(0!+-,-1()!1('*.($->>(1(%,2*>>7,'*%+>*,(-%,!+*>(+ :(
+"()-/-)?(,'-)+*'(,:(%2?<('!/,-?(+7!2')!?"*%7<'*%#%*?(*""(*'+-%
(#-,!'-*>)!1('*.((.%($+*',-)>(+/(*,2'(+.2(+,(#-,!'-*>+'(1-($+<>!.+
*%*>7+,'(1-($+<27('.2-#(+)!?"*'(#,!,:(%2?<('!/,-?(+7!2')!?"(,-,!'+R
)!?"*%-(+<'*%#%*?(+*""(*'
B#(*>>77!2+:!2>#<(*<>(,!#(,('?-%(,:(3GV?(,'-)/!'7!2')!?"*%7*%#7!2'
)>!+(+,)!?"(,-,!'+ :('(*'(*)!2">(!/$*7+,!#(,('?-%(,:(+(%2?<('+
32<+)'-<(,!*?(#-*?!%-,!'-%.+('1-)(!')>-""-%.+('1-)( :(+(+('1-)(+
*'(%!,/'((!/):*'.(:!$(1('$:-):?*7'2>(,:(?!2,/!'?*%7+,*',2"+
4*;(2+(!/*%!%>-%(+(*'):+('1-)(+2):*+S!!.>(E($+$:-):$->>*>>!$
7!2,!+(,2"7!2'!$%+(*'):(+!/!%>-%(%($++!2')(+<*+(#!%;(7$!'#+
H:->(%!,*+)!?"'(:(%+-1(*+*,'*#-,-!%*>)>-""-%.+('1-)(-,+*#1*%,*.(+,!
+,*',2"+-%)>2#(,:(>!$)!+,-(/'((*%#+-?">(A2-);*))(++,!
-%/!'?*,-!%L(*$*'(,:*,"2,,-%.,!.(,:(',:('-.:,+(*'):,('?+-+,:(
)'-,-)*>(>(?(%,/!'*S!!.>(E($++(*'):3-/,,:'!2.:,:('(+2>,+/!',:(
%2?<('!/,-?(+*)!?"*%7-+?(%,-!%(#*+$(>>*+-,+;(7(I()2,-1(+*%#
*++!)-*,(#<'*%#%*?(+
=*):?(#-*:-,+:!2>#<('*,(#J"!+-,-1(KJ%(2,'*>K!'J%(.*,-1(K#("(%#-%.!%,:(
,!%(*%#)!%,(I,!/,:(?(%,-!% !*):-(1(*%(,+)!'(!'(%#'(+2>,*##,:(
"!+-,-1(+,!,:(%(2,'*>+*%#,:(%+2<,'*),,:(%(.*,-1(+
>?@&!+$1)"!A5)$*+*.!#!&+*)&$B!/+"%7#!&+*)&$CB!2%+*.!#!&+*)&$
!"#$%& CJ;#!$(+#;#'-
F*;2#-.-*+ F*;2#-.-*+ F*;2#-.-*+
K*(
=#-,!'-*>)!1('*.(
3:*'(!/1!-)(
L*-#=+,-?*,-%.?*';(,+:*'(-%*+,*',2")!%,(I,-+#-//-)2>,*%#,:(*<!1(
?(,:!#+*'(%!,.2*'*%,((#,!"'!1-#(*%*))2'*,(*%+$('E(1(',:(>(++-/7!2
?((,$-,:"!,(%,-*>-%1(+,!'+7!2$->>%((#,!T2+,-/7,:(#*,*7!2"'(+(%,,:(,$!
?(,'-)+"'(+(%,(#:('($->>(%*<>(7!2,!#!+!
3G#&#"*2A*(+-*23*4'+#&#'(#$,#'!+.*$
Q*>)2>*,(7!2'(I"(),(#'(1(%2(/!'*+"()-/-)7(*'<7?2>,-">7-%.,:(/!>>!$-%.
/*),!'+
D%"9!+,)+!&+*%7E@%7/!FG<'),+*)&"%+!H!%"IGD%"9!+$4%"!H!%"I
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
0!% 9Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups
D"">7,:(/!>>!$-%.?(,:!#+,!'(/-%(7!2',!"#!$%'(1(%2(/!'()*+,
B/7!2*'("'("*'-%.*<2+-%(++!'/-%*%)-%.">*%#(1(>!"/!'()*+,+/!'
*##-,-!%*>7(*'+,!"'!#2)(*/-1(7(*'!2,>!!;!/:!$7!2(I"(),7!2'
'(1(%2(,!"'!.'(++
0'(+(%,7!2'/!'()*+,/!'*.-1(%7(*'2+-%.,:'((#-//('(%,+)(%*'-!+C<(+,
)*+(?!+,>-;(>7)*+(*%#$!'+,)*+(C,!<(,,('2%#('+,*%#,:(
)!%+(A2(%)(+!/;(7*++2?",-!%+%!,#(1(>!"-%.*+(I"(),(#D##'(++$:*,
*++2?",-!%++("*'*,(,:(,:'((+)(%*'-!+
:()'(#-<->-,7!/7!2'/!'()*+,#("(%#+!%,:(A2*>-,7!/7!2'*++2?",-!%+
$:(%(+,-?*,-%.?*';(,+-@(*#!",-!%'*,(*%#?*';(,+:*'(6!)2?(%,-%.
(*):*++2?",-!%$->>*>>!$7!2,!'(1-+-,*%#,(+,7!2'/!'()*+,'(.2>*'>7B/
7!2"'(+(%,7!2''(1(%2(/!'()*+,,!-%1(+,!'+(I"(),,:(?,!+)'2,-%-@(
7!2'*++2?",-!%+
E#'#5.-$*5-*23*4'5*+#,!$-.'/
G%(*#1*%,*.(!/"'("*'-%.*,!"#!$%/!'()*+,2+-%.,:(+,("+-%+(),-!%-+,:*,
-,"'!1(+'(>*,-1(>7/*+,*%#+,'*-.:,/!'$*'# :(*))2'*)7!/,:(,!"#!$%/!'()*+,
#("(%#+!%,:(*++2?",-!%+7!2?*;(,!)'(*,(,:((+,-?*,(+O!2)*%-?"'!1(,:(
*))2'*)7!/7!2'/!'()*+,<7.'!2%#-%.7!2'*++2?",-!%+-%/*),N+(?*';(,
'(+(*'):/'!?*'()!.%-@(#/-'?!'(?">!7+,*%#*'#-%#2+,'7?(,'-)+*+"'!I-(+,!
#(1(>!"7!2'!$%(+,-?*,(+
89#'-*($#-*23*4'5*+#,!$-.'/
:(,!"#!$%*""'!*):$!';+<(+,$:(%7!2%((#*%-%#-)*,-!%!/,:(?*';(,+-@(
*%#?*';(,+:*'(/!'7!2'1(%,2'(B,+:!2>#<(2+(#+!>(>7/!',:("2'"!+(!/
#(,('?-%-%.,:(+-@(!/,:(!""!',2%-,7/!'7!27!2'<2+-%(++"*',%('+*%#,:(
-%1(+,!'+
G%)(7!2)'(*,(*,!"#!$%/!'()*+,#!*<!,,!?2"/!'()*+,*%#)!?"*'(,:(
'(+2>,+ :('(+2>,+!/,:(,$!*""'!*):(+$->>>-;(>7#-//('<2,-,-+*2+(/2>>(*'%-%.
(I(')-+(,!#(,('?-%(,:('(*+!%+$:7,:("'!T(),-!%+#-//('
89#''*--*($#-*23*4'5*+#,!$-.'/
:(,!"#!$%*""'!*):-+1('7-%*))2'*,($-,:'(+"(),,!,-?-%. :('(/!'(-,!//('+
>-,,>(1*>2(/!''(1(%2(*%#)*+:/>!$">*%%-%./!'+:!',('"('-!#+!/,-?(*%#/!'
+*>(+?*%*.(?(%,+,*//-%.*%#+2"">7):*-%#()-+-!%+
Top-down sales forecasting for pre-revenue startups