The genomic landscape of testicular germ cell tumours: a timeline perspective from susceptibility to treatment Kevin Litchfield1, Max A Levy1, Robert A Huddart2, Janet Shipley3, Clare Turnbull1,4 1. Division of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK 2. Academic Radiotherapy Unit, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, Surrey, UK 3. Divisions of Molecular Pathology and Cancer Therapeutics, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK 4. William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University, London, UK Correspondence to: Clare Turnbull, Division of Genetics and Epidemiology, The Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK; Tel: ++44 (0) 208 722 4485; E-mail: [email protected] Key words: Testicular germ cell tumours, TGCT, Predisposition, Cancer genomics Running title: The genomic landscape of TGCT SUMMARY The genomic landscape of testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) can be summarised through four overarching hypotheses. Firstly that TGCT risk is dominated by inherited genetic factors, which determine nearly half of all disease risk, and are highly polygenic in nature. Secondly KIT/KITLG signalling is the major pathway implicated to date in TGCT formation, featuring both as a predisposition risk factor and a somatic driver event. Results from GWAS have also consistently implicated other closely related pathways, involving male germ cell development and sex determination. Thirdly TGCT has a unique model of disease formation, with tumours universally stemming from a non-invasive precursor lesion of likely foetal origins, which lies dormant through childhood into adolescence and then eventually begins malignant growth in early-adulthood. Formation of a 12p isochromosome, a hallmark of TGCT observed in nearly all tumours, is likely to be a key triggering event for malignant transformation. Fourthly and finally TGCTs have been shown to have a distinctive somatic mutational profile, with a low rate of point mutations contrasted by frequent large-scale chromosomal gains. While these four hypotheses by no means constitute a complete model that explains TGCT tumorigenesis, it is clear that recent advances in genomic technologies have enabled significant progress in describing and understanding the disease. Further advancing our understanding of the genomic basis of TGCT offers clear opportunity for clinical benefit, in terms of preventing invasive cancer arising in young men, decreasing the burden of chemotherapy-related survivorship issues and reducing mortality in the minority with treatmentrefractory disease state. Introduction Testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT) is the most common malignancy affecting young men, with a mean age at diagnosis of 36 years1,2. In western industrialised nations the incidence of TGCT has approximately doubled over the last four decades3, strongly motivating the need to understand its biological and genetic basis. Whilst cure rates for TGCTs are typically high, due to the effectiveness of platinum-based chemotherapy, survivorship comes with a burden of longer-term sequelae, including increased risk of metabolic syndrome, infertility and secondary cancer4-6. Furthermore there are limited options for patients who demonstrate platinum resistance, a group for whom fiveyear survival is only 10-15%7. The advent of genome-wide array and next-generation sequencing technologies has heralded rich insights into TGCT oncogenesis, revealing genetic determinants of the strong inherited risk, as well as a distinctive somatic mutational profile. In this review we discuss these recent findings and outline the emerging genomic architecture of TGCT using a time-line approach (figure 1), as well as highlighting the potential implications for disease treatment and drug resistance. Pre-Cancer: TGCT predisposition Family, twin and migration studies support a strong inherited genetic basis to TGCT susceptibility, with brothers of cases having a substantially increased risk of TGCT, estimates of which range from 4-5 to 8-10 fold increased8-11. Recent population-wide analysis of the Swedish family cancer database has estimated the heritability of TGCT to be 48.9%12, suggesting nearly half of all TGCT risk is determined by inherited genetic factors. Both of these values suggest a substantially higher component of genetic susceptibility than most common tumour types, for which sibling relative risk is typically ~2-fold increased and heritability in the region of 30%13,14. Consistent with a strong inherited genetic component, disease incidence also varies considerably between ethnic groups, with white American men being at a 5 times higher risk than their black American counterparts9. Elucidation of these genetic risk factors was first approached through genome-wide linkage analysis, which essentially yielded null results, concluding that a single high penetrance risk locus is unlikely to exist 15,16. Through subsequent candidate association studies a 1.6Mb-deletion on chromosome Y (designated gr/gr) was identified which confers a two-fold elevation of TGCT risk17. The frequency of the gr/gr deletion is low however (observed in ~2% of cases), meaning it is likely to account for only ~0.5% of the total genetic (excess familial) risk of TGCT. Furthermore whole-exome sequencing, which has been recently undertaken in >900 TGCT cases including >150 multiplex TGCT families by our group and others, has also so far failed to identify high-risk TGCT predisposition genes of significant frequency (unpublished data). Coding variants conferring intermediate-high risk of TGCT may still exist however, but they are likely to each only account for a small proportion of TGCT families. Indeed, a number of additional strands of evidence also instead support a highly polygenic model of TGCT susceptibility, with disease risk enshrined in the co-inheritance of multiple risk variants, many of which are common18. Indeed heritability estimates using genomic datasets suggest that over three quarters of the inherited genetic risk is transmitted through common variation12. Exposition of this common component has come from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), which have so far identified 25 risk loci for TGCT (Table 1)19-28. Although each individual common variant only makes a modest contribution to the genetic risk of TGCT, it is of note that the TGCT risk SNPs identified to date include individual SNPs carrying per allele odds ratios (OR) in excess of 2.6, among the highest reported in GWAS of any disease phenotype29. In addition to high effect sizes, the associations identified by GWAS have provided novel biological insights into the development of TGCT, highlighting in particular genes related to KIT/KITLG signalling, other pathways of male germ cell development, sex determination and genomic integrity (table1, figure 2). The first risk locus was identified at 12q21, containing KITLG, and this remains the strongest genetic risk factor for TGCT (per allele odd ratio>2.6). KITLG encodes the ligand for the membrane bound receptor tyrosine kinase KIT, which regulates the survival, proliferation and migration of germ cells30. Prior to elucidation of this locus by GWAS, KIT signaling had already been strongly implicated in TGCT, with mice null for either KIT or KITLG being shown to be infertile31 and mice with a heterozygous deletion encompassing just the KITLG region having demonstrated a twofold elevated risk of TGCT32. Functional studies in human cell lines have elucidated the likely mechanism of TGCT risk at this locus at 12q21, showing an allele-specific p53 binding effect and subsequent upregulation of KITLG expression33. As well as 12q21, GWAS has identified three other risk loci containing genes related to KIT, 5q31 (SPRY4), 6p21 (BAK1) and 11q14.1 (GAB2). SPRY4 inhibits the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK3/MAPK1) pathway, which is in turn activated by KIT signalling34, whilst apoptosis promoting protein BAK1 is also regulated by KIT35. GAB2, a member of the GRB2-associated binding protein (GAB) family, also associates with KIT and forms a critical part of this KIT/KITLG signalling cascade36. GWAS, together with wide-ranging functional evidence, has established the KIT pathway as a central tenet in TGCT formation, activated not only during overt tumourigenesis but also predefining disease risk. As well as KIT, other pathways of male germ cell development have also been repeatedly highlighted in TGCT GWAS, including genes at 3p24.2 (DAZL) and 8q13.3 (PRDM14). DAZL encodes an RNAbinding protein that has been shown in expression studies in human primordial germ cells to have a central role in the early differentiation of primordial germ cells: DAZL (-/-) mice are rendered infertile, with differentiation of the germ cells halted at the type A spermatogonia stage 37. PRDM14 encodes a transcriptional regulator and modulates primordial germ cell (PGC) specification through control of expression of key pluripotency genes, such as POU5F1 (OCT4), NANOG and SOX238. A distinct but closely related pathway also recurrently highlighted through GWAS is sex determination, in particular through locus 9p24 which contains a single gene DMRT1. In many species, high expression of DMRT1 is required for differentiation along the male lineage39; furthermore, DMRT1 deficiency is also associated with testicular cancer in mouse models: 90% of DMRT1 −/− 129Sv mice develop teratomas compared to <1% of DMRT1 +/+ mice 40. Other biological pathways putatively associated with TGCT through GWAS relate to genomic integrity, such as telomerase function, centrosome cycle and DNA damage repair. It is important to note however, that while many of the genes and pathways implicated through GWAS have extensive pre-existing evidence to support their role in TGCT formation, a GWAS signal points only to a genomic block of linkage disequilibrium. Hence further functional fine mapping is urgently required to validate and expand this putative attribution of signal to particular genes. The current known TGCT risk loci collectively explain ~25% of the excess sibling risk of TGCT and accordingly there are likely to be multiple additional TGCT susceptibility loci still to be identified. This notion is supported by genome-wide complex trait analysis41 recently conducted for TGCT42, which suggested that at least 50 additional risk SNPs of OR ~ 1.2 are likely to exist. Or, more plausibly, with a trailing set of effect sizes (OR = 1.01~1.20), the undiscovered set could be significantly larger. Thus the prevailing evidence supports a genomic architecture of TGCT predisposition dominated by multiple common risk loci, perturbing a consistent set of biological pathways. In addition to genetic predisposition, research into environmental risk factors has been of increasing interest, on account of the rapidly rising incidence of TGCT. Although there have been many hypotheses explored around maternal and in utero exposures, to date there has been no compelling evidence implicating specific environmental risk factors in the aetiology of TGCT43. The rise in TGCT incidence has been accompanied by a concordant fall in global sperm counts, prompting the hypothesis that TGCT may be aetiologically linked to male reproductive abnormalities as a part of the so-called 'testicular dysgenesis syndrome’ (TDS)44. Indeed genetic studies have found shared risk factors, such as the chromosome Y gr/gr deletion, which predisposes to infertility as well as TGCT17. Large meta-analysis shows that the sub-fertile men have a 1.6-fold increased risk of TGCT and in a Danish study reviewing >200 contralateral biopsy specimens in men after a first TGCT, showed evidence of testicular dysgenesis in 25% of samples. Other recognised risk factors for TGCT include a history of undescended testis (UDT) and other testicular abnormalities such as hypogonadism and microlithiasis45,46. Elevated TGCT risk is also associated with Down’s (trisomy 21)47 and Klinefelter’s (47XXY karyotype)48 syndromes and intriguingly somatic gains of both chromosomes 21 and X are frequently observed in TGCTs49. Furthermore examples of ovarian germ cell tumour have also been recurrently reported in pedigrees along with TGCT, suggesting shared oncogenic pathways50. Finally epigenetic influences on TGCT predisposition have attracted widespread recent interest, due to both the known vulnerability of epigenetic reprogramming to environmental exposures as well as the established role of DNA methylation in the formation of many cancer types51. Proof of concept for this has been demonstrated at GWAS loci 5q31 (SPRY4) in analysis of a Scandinavian dataset, with a strong parent-of-origin effect with TGCT risk associated with maternal (OR = 1.72) but not paternal (OR = 0.99) transmission of the risk allele52. This result is consistent with an imprinting effect, whereby epigenetic mechanisms control gene expression and risk is silenced in paternally inherited alleles. Precursor state: tumour origin It is widely accepted that TGCT arises from a non-invasive precursor lesion termed intratubular germ cell neoplasia unclassified (ITGCN, formerly known as carcinoma in situ, CIS), located in the spermatogonial niche of the seminiferous tubule of the adult human testis53. Molecular observations of ITGCN suggest close phenotypic similarities to primordial germ cells (PGCs), or gonocytes, with the possibility that during fetal development normal germ cells transform into ITGCN54-56. This is consistent with the clinical finding of ITGCN in a limited number of mid-trimester fetuses57. The incidence of ITGCN is equivalent to the lifetime risk of developing TGCT, which combined together with longitudinal studies, have led to wide acceptance that ITGCN progresses to invasive TGCT in most patients. Expression of pluripotency factors OCT3/4 and NANOG, together with imprinting patterns, characterise ITGCN cells as the malignant equivalent of PGCs/gonocytes. The genetic features of ITGCN have not been rigorously profiled; however targeted sequencing studies have documented examples of KIT mutation, which are well described in TGCT (see section below on somatic genetics)58. Following a primary TGCT, men have a 12-fold elevated risk of disease in the contralateral testicle59: a pertinent question is whether these bilateral tumours originate from a common pre-invasive ancestor or whether other predisposing mechanisms cause multiple independent TGCTs. In this context, the identification of concordant KIT mutations in bilateral TGCTs was initially proposed as evidence of a common precursor lesion with mutation occurring during early fetal development58. However in larger subsequent studies this pattern was not replicated60. The question of mutational concordance in bilateral disease and tumour origin remain compelling lines of inquiry, with potential to significantly inform TGCT aetiology. Progression to cancer: tumour subtypes It is widely accepted that the pre-invasive ITGCN cells lie dormant in the gonad during fetal development, infant and childhood life. Progression towards invasive TGCT then occurs following puberty, when ITGCN cells begin to proliferate, likely due to hormonal influences61,62. The presence of ITGCN can be ascertained via testicular biopsy. Following detection of ITGCN, invasive TGCT is observed in 50% of cases within 5 years, 70% of cases within 7 years and, eventually, in almost all cases 63. ITGCN transforms into two main TGCT histological subtypes: seminomas, which resemble undifferentiated PGCs, and non-seminomas, which show differing degrees of differentiation. Seminomas generally arise later in life, with a mean age at diagnosis of 35 years compared with 25 years for non-seminomas. Transcriptional profiling has identified differing gene signatures for each sub-type, with spermatogenesis-associated genes (such as PRAME, MAGEA4 and SPAG1) overexpressed in seminomas and regulatory genes (DNMT3B and SOX2) over-expressed in nonseminoma subtypes64,65. Despite these morphological differences however, several observations suggest commonality of underlying oncogenic pathways and that histological differences are likely to develop late in the tumour formation. For example 15% of TGCTs have a mixed pathology 66 and discordant histologies are frequently reported in bilateral/familial cases 67,68. In addition GWAS results, when stratified by histology, have been noteworthy for their consistent lack of difference in genetic risk between seminoma vs non-seminoma cases, despite sufficient power for detection19,22,24. Clinical presentation: somatic mutational profile of TGCTs Study of TGCT has revealed these tumours and their subtypes to have a similar mutational profile, with a markedly low rate of somatic mutation. In fact recent whole exome sequencing studies49,69 have reported a mean rate of 0.5 somatic mutations per megabase (Mb) for TGCT, a rate significantly lower than other adult solid tumours such as lung cancer (8.0/Mb) and melanoma (11.0/Mb). Overall the TGCT mutation rate is observed to be some eight times lower than the pancancer average (reported at 4.0/Mb across 27 tumour types70), and only marginally greater than paediatric cancers such as Ewing sarcoma (0.3/Mb) and Rhabdoid tumour (0.15/Mb). This low mutational frequency is consistent with the hypothesised embryonic origins of TGCT54. The most frequently mutated TGCT driver gene is KIT, where activating mutations are observed in 25-30% of seminomas71,72. Mutations are found to cluster in the juxta membrane and kinase encoding domains of KIT71,72, with by far the most frequent mutations being D816V/H. KIT mutation is also associated with other cancer types including myeloid leukaemias73. In addition to KIT, mutations in KRAS have also consistently been reported, albeit at a lower frequency of ~5-10%. Subsequent to the initial targeted and hypothesis-driven analyses of individual genes/gene sets in TGCTs through which KIT and KRAS mutations were reported, whole-exome profiling of TGCTs has been undertaken but no other driver genes with higher mutational frequency have been observed. Several lower frequency driver candidates have been proposed, however further large scale sequencing studies (>300 tumours) will be required to robustly assess this. TGCTs are also noted for their general absence of p53 mutation, with wild-type (wt) p53 retained in >97% of testicular tumours, compared to only ~50% of all cancers overall74-76. However, p53 signalling may still be disrupted in TGCTs but through indirect mechanisms such as overexpression of MDM2/MDMX or the activity of micro RNAs such as miR-372 and miR-37377 In contrast to the low rate of point mutations, TGCTs are highly aneuploid, with large scale copy number variations (CNV) frequently observed. This is proposed to be derived from an initial tetraploidisation event followed by subsequent chromosome loss78. Gain of chromosomal material from 12p is noted in virtually all tumours, and most commonly manifests as a 12p isochromosome i(12p)79-81. i(12p) is widely regarded as the hallmark of TGCT and minimal mapping of the 12p region involved in cases without an i(12p), undertaken to identify causal driver gene(s), has been described in several studies82,83. Several candidates have been proposed, including KRAS at 12p11.2-p12.1 and a cluster of stem cell associated genes such as NANOG at 12p13.31, all of which are overexpressed in TGCTs82,83. However definitive evidence is still lacking as to both the exact driver gene(s) and functional mechanism(s) underlying i(12p). In addition to minimal mapping, the study of i(12p) in precursor ITGCN cells has also been of significant interest, with the majority of studies demonstrating that pre-malignant ITGCN (i.e. with no adjacent invasive TGCT) does not contain i(12p) but malignant ITGCN does84,85. Hence it is hypothesised that i(12p) is not required for ITGCN formation but is the triggering event responsible for driving invasive growth. Overall i(12p) is widely accepted as a critical step in TGCT pathogenesis. As well as i(12p), recurring gain of chromosomes 7, 8, 21, 22, X and loss of chromosome Y are also consistently reported at a frequency of 25%-40% TGCTs49,79-81,86-89. In addition to these large scale CNVs (>1Mb), specific amplification of the KIT gene at 4q12 leads to overexpression and is an alternative mechanism to activating mutations that enhances KIT signalling in seminomas71. Recently two independent studies have sought to further profile focal CNVs (<1Mb) in TGCTs49,90,91, with both studies reporting a recurrent small scale focal gain at 2q32.1, encompassing gene FSIP2, present in 15-20% of each of the independent TGCT cohorts. FSIP2 encodes a protein which forms part of the fibrous sheath (FS), a cytoskeletal structure located in the principle piece region of the sperm flagellum. FSIP2 expression is testis-specific 92 and it is hypothesised to act as a linker protein, binding AKAP4 to the FS92. Dysplasia of the FS and mutations in AKAP4 have also both been linked to male infertility93,94. Aside from 2q32.1, these studies of focal CNVs also identified a number of other candidate regions with recurring focal CNV which, conversely, failed to replicate across studies. Finally the somatic mutational profile of TGCTs show strong similarities across histological subtypes, with almost identical mutation rates in both seminomas and non-seminomas (0.50 and 0.49 mutations per Mb respectively) and i(12p) being an archetypical feature of both49. There are two consistent differences known between the subtypes; firstly that KIT mutations are found to be largely unique to seminomas and secondly CNV profiles show that seminomas are hypertriploid whereas non-seminomas are hypotriploid. Additional more subtle differences between the subtypes have been reported but larger in-depth studies are required to further clarify these95.The other clinically associated feature of note is a correlation between the somatic mutational rate and patient age, with a significantly higher rate in older patients, which are more frequently seminomas. This suggests the majority of somatic TGCT mutations are passengers that simply accumulate with patient age, following their early initiation of the disease. Post-treatment: genetic characteristics and response to chemotherapy Over recent decades there have been significant advances in the treatment of TGCT, owing to the exceptional sensitivity of malignant testicular germ cells to platinum-based chemotherapies. Today a cure is expected in over 95% of all patients and in around 80% of patients presenting with metastatic disease96,97. Despite these high cure rates there are a minority of men who exhibit resistance to platinum, and for whom treatment options are limited and long term survival prospects are poor. Indeed the average age of death for these men is 32 years; hence an urgent clinical priority is the identification of novel treatment options, efficacious in the platinum-refractory setting. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain both the exceptional sensitivity of TGCTs to platinum as well as the corresponding mechanisms of resistance. The overall low somatic mutation rate of TGCTs is likely to be a contributing factor to the hypersensitive chemo-response, with a reduced genetic diversity and lower probability of pre-existing mutation in a resistance driving gene. Another model proposes that treatment sensitivity is due to the inability of TGCTs to repair treatment-induced DNA damage, due to the low expression of DNA repair genes such as ERCC198. Conversely it is proposed that resistant TGCTs acquire an enhanced capacity to repair DNA and avoid apoptosis. It is noteworthy therefore, that sensitivity to poly(ADPribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibition has been observed in platinum resistant TGCT cell lines, suggesting these cells have deficiency in homologous recombination pathways99. An additional feature which may in part explain TGCT platinum sensitivity is that, unlike most other solid tumours, TP53 is rarely mutated in TGCTs. In fact p53 expression is not only retained at normal levels in TGCTs but is frequently upregulated, which is proposed as a major factor in explaining platinum hypersensitivity100. A variety of other models have also been proposed, including a hypersensitive apoptotic response to platinum or alternatively mechanisms related to epigenetics, which hypothesise that sensitivity is due to the hypomethylation status of some TGCTs 101. The study of platinum resistance has also been approached clinically, through comparison of treatment sensitive/resistant patient tumour samples. Initial research102 highlighted BRAF mutation, with the V600E variant present in 26% of resistant versus 1% of sensitive tumours, however this finding failed to replicate in larger subsequent studies103. Hotspot mutational analysis identified PIK3/AKT variants in 7% of resistant tumours (n=46), versus 0% in sensitive samples (n=24), as well as mutations RAS, and FGFR3 genes103. Whole exome sequencing of two treatment resistant tumours identified missense mutation in DNA repair gene XRCC249, suggesting an activation of DNA repair pathways in response to treatment induced damage. Interestingly mutation of related gene ERCC2 has been found to correlate with platinum response in a recent exome-wide study of 50 urothelial carcinomas104. Aside from XRCC2 mutation, the exome profile of resistant TGCT appears to be comparable to sensitive tumours, with a consistent mutational load of 0.5 mutations per Mb, albeit based on only two samples. The role of KIT has also been studied in treatment response; however clinical trial of imatinib (which inhibits activated KIT) showed no anti-tumour activity against KIT-positive platinum-refractory TGCTs105. CCND1 overexpression has also been associated with cisplatin resistance in TGCTs as well as other tumour types106,107. As well as somatic research, several germline pharmacogenomics studies have also been completed, with polymorphism of the gene PAI-1 being shown to act as a predictor of negative platinum response, with homozygote risk allele carriers having a hazard ratio of 2.69 for TGCT-related death108. However due to the difficulty in obtaining large case sample sizes, with both available DNA and clinical data on treatment response, the majority of germline biomarkers have not yet been validated in large cohorts. Thus the mechanisms driving platinum resistance remain unclear and are likely to involve a sequence of genetic/epigenetic changes, delineation of which will be critical to identifying improved treatment options and prognostic biomarkers. Post-cancer: long term survivorship issues The success of treating TGCT has been accompanied by an increase in survivorship issues, caused by the long-term consequences associated with platinum-based chemotherapy. A number of associated morbidities have been identified, including neurotoxicity, hypogonadism, infertility and increased risks of both cardiovascular disease and secondary cancer4-6,109. For example neuropathic symptoms are reported in 20% of TGCT survivors at 2-years post combination chemotherapy, and cisplatin treatment is associated with ototoxicity (high-frequency hearing loss and tinnitus). Genetic studies have identified polymorphisms associated with predisposition to these side effects, such variants in the gene GSTP1 which are associated with an increased risk of peripheral neuropathy and ototoxicity110,111. In terms of hypogonadism, while a proportion of patients will already have low testosterone levels pre-TGCT (through TDS), chemo- and radio-therapy treatments have been shown to increase hypogonadism rates from 11% to 38%112. In addition the deleterious effects of chemotherapy on spermatogenesis have been well documented5, with 20-30% of men being left infertile post-TGCT treatment106. Moreover there is additional risk in men whose sperm counts do recover, with sperm DNA damage after chemotherapy remaining elevated 2-years post treatment, compromising gamete quality and causing potential risk for offspring113. Finally both cardiovascular and secondary cancer risks are elevated following chemotherapy, with an increased incidence in particular of metabolic syndrome (central obesity, dyslipidemia and hypertension) and secondary leukemia. A large scale study of >40,000 TGCT survivors demonstrated a lifetime risk of secondary cancer of 31% for seminoma and 36% for non-seminoma patients respectively, compared with 23% for the general population114. Other potential applications of genetics in clinical management of TGCT Whilst there is currently no clinical application of genetics in predicting disease or stratifying clinical care, a number of clinically-orientated studies are underway to explore potential utility. Disease prevention has been a central focus, with the high effect-size of TGCT GWAS SNPs suggesting genetic screening could be clinically useful29. Preliminary assessment of genetic profiling has been approached by two groups20,115, using polygenic risk scoring (PRS) models to consider the combined effect of all known SNPs on TGCT risk. The latest such model demonstrates that the top 1% of men with the highest genetic risk of TGCT carry a 10.4-fold elevated disease risk compared to the population average. Comparing this to equivalent PRS models for ovarian, breast and prostate, where the top 1% of highest risk genotypes have only a 2-fold, 3-fold and 5-fold increased risk respectively 116, shows the TGCT SNPs have useful power in terms of risk discrimination. However, whilst the SNP set for TGCT is comparatively predictive for disease, the case for screening is weaker as TGCT is of much lower frequency than these cancers and has an excellent prognosis. The rare nature of TGCT (lifetime male Caucasian absolute risk of 0.5%) mean high relative risks (RR) translate into only modest absolute risk: the 1% of men with the highest risk of TGCT have an impressive RR of 10.4 but still only have a ~5% lifetime risk of TGCT. It may be possible to combine genetic/nongenetic risk factors to improve the discriminatory performance of the risk profiling. For example one model testing this has predicted that men in the top 1% of genetic risk, and with a history of UDT, would have a RR of 50 115, equating to a lifetime TGCT risk of ~25%. However this model assumes full independence of effects between genetic and non-genetic factors, an assumption not yet validated through the relevant modelling of large datasets combining clinical and genetic data. Currently men at high risk of TGCT would proceed to bilateral testicular biopsy to assess for presence of the premalignant ITGCN lesion, proceeding to orchidectomy if detected. The invasive nature of testicular biopsy necessarily currently restricts development of TGCT screening programs. Improvement in sensitivity and specificity of semen assay, an emerging non-invasive diagnostic tool by which presence/absence of ITGCN is detected, may in the future impact on the viability of TGCT screening117,118. Such an approach would be taking advantage of the unique characteristic of ITGCN as a faithful precursor lesion of TGCT, clinically detectable from adolescence. Future directions Large-scale GWAS is expected to identify multiple additional TGCT risk variants, as sample sizes rapidly increase. For example the largest TGCT meta-GWAS to date contains 3,556 cases and 13,969 controls, with a 7.2% power to detect common variants119 (defined as OR > 1.25 and MAF > 5%). Sample sizes are expected to soon reach 10,000 cases, through large collaborative efforts such as the Testicular Cancer Association Consortium (TECAC, http://www.tecac.org/). At the level of 10,000 cases, this will increase the power to detect common variants to 88% (based on the same OR/MAF as above, with assumed 50,000 controls). Following these studies, it is expected that a significantly higher proportion of heritable risk factors for TGCT will be identified, offering a greater potential for personalised risk prediction. In addition the functional fine mapping of TGCT risk loci will become a major focus moving forward, as genetic/functional evidence is becoming increasingly important for drug target identification and validation. Indeed recent evidence directly from big pharma shows that genetically validated targets are twice as likely to be successful in clinical development120. A wide range of functional mapping techniques are likely to be informative, including: targeted resequencing, expression quantitative trait loci analysis, transcription factor binding analysis, chromosome conformation capture techniques, methylation profiling as well direct genotype manipulation in cell line models. Utility of these techniques to build an integrated functional view of oncogenic pathways will be critical, and likely to be particularly informative for TGCT, given the strong commonality between historic biological evidence, recent genetic findings and overlapping conditions such as TDS. Aside from common SNPs, the influence of rare predisposition variants also remains yet to be revealed. While a single high penetrance “TGCT gene” is unlikely to exist, higher-risk mutations may yet be identified through large-scale NGS analyses of TGCT families. In terms of additional exposition of somatic variation in TGCT, comprehensive profiling of 150 TGCTs has been undertaken by The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project (http://cancergenome.nih.gov/). Exome sequencing data in the TCGA project, when meta-analysed together with previous data49, have confirmed in this series the low mutation rate and absence of other consistent driver genes except KIT and KRAS (AACR 2015 abstract 2986). Additional studies are underway to comprehensively study the genomics of platinum resistance. Historically there are two main animal models predisposed to developing TGCT: a zebrafish model carrying BMPR1B mutations that disrupt BMP signalling, and 129Sv strain mice, with complete loss of DMRT1, which display high incidence of teratoma40. While both these models provide relevant biological insight into TGCT development, their relevance to human tumourigenesis is limited, as genes such as BMPR1B have not been found to be mutated in human TGCT. More recently a new zebrafish model with inactivating mutations in the ciliary protein LRCC50 has also been reported, with 80% incidence of seminoma, suggesting an intriguing functional link between TGCT and cilia function121. Despite the utility of these models and others, no model currently exists to reflect the biology of human non-seminomas, such as embryonal carcinoma or yolk sac tumour. Given nonseminomas are generally more aggressive, with higher rates of platinum resistance, there is an urgent need for new models representing these subtypes. Future development and utilisation of these animal systems will provide novel insights into the underlying molecular mechanisms of TGCT, as well as useful tools to test therapeutic strategies. Given the exceptional sensitivity of TGCTs to platinum, near-term therapeutic advancements are likely to focus on chemotherapy in combination with other synergistic compounds. A recent example of this is a trial of bevacizumab together with high-dose chemotherapy, exploiting the over expression of VEGF in metastatic TGCT122. Although small in size (n=37) this study demonstrated promising results in otherwise refractory cases, with an overall survival rate of 58% at 46 months, albeit with 11% of patients dying from treatment-related toxicities123. Further integrated genomic/transcriptomic profiling of refractory TGCTs may inform additional rational treatment combinations, of platinum together with other targeted molecules. In the longer term immunotherapeutic strategies have been postulated as a less toxic treatment alternative, with a recent study showing frequent expression of the programmed death receptor ligand 1 (PD-L1) in TGCTs124. This finding is somewhat counterintuitive, given a high mutational load is hypothesised to be a pre-requisite for immune-mediated response, as evidenced by the effectiveness of PD-L1 inhibition in highly mutated tumours such as melanoma and lung cancer. Clearly TGCT, with its low mutation rate, does not fit this same profile; however increasing evidence now suggests that tumour immune response is mediated by a more complex set of factors125. Finally, attention will continue to focus on longstanding unresolved questions of TGCT oncogenesis, such as tumour origin and the functional mechanisms of i(12p). With regard to tumour origin, detailed profiling of bilateral tumours from the same case, together with the ITGCN precursor cells, would comprehensively address the question of common ancestry, although a more immediately tractable approach may come from use of model systems in the first instance. Lastly, insights into the functional significance of i(12p) maybe forthcoming through a number of approaches, such as integrated functional analysis utilising TCGA data, or long read / whole genome sequencing to finely map the structure of i(12p), detecting any complex rearrangements or gene fusion events. TABLES AND FIGURES LEGENDS FIGURE 1 - The genomic features of TGCT, summarised using a timeline approach. FIGURE 2 - Risk pathways implicated for TGCT through GWAS, in clockwise order staring from top left panel: i) KIT/KITLG Signalling – all genes related to this pathway using STRING database126 with genes implicated in TGCT risk loci are highlighted with a red circle, ii) Other pathways of male germ cell development – genes implicated in TGCT risk loci are highlighted, iii) Sex determination – genes implicated in TGCT risk loci are highlighted, iv) Chromosomal assembly/DNA Repair – genes implicated in TGCT risk loci are highlighted. TABLE 1 - TGCT predisposition loci identified to date, presented in chronological order with functional grouping based126. For loci with multiple reported SNPs the marker listed is taken from first study in the reference column. REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. Bray, F., Ferlay, J., Devesa, S.S., McGlynn, K.A. & Moller, H. 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