EFIMAS - Operational Evaluation Tools
for Fisheries Management Options
J.R. Nielsen, P.J. Sparre,
L. Kell, P. Degnbol,
S. Pascoe, M. Pastoors,
L. Motos and M.B. Horsten
(Editors on behalf of the EFIMAS Consortium)
Objectives
Approach
To develop an operational management evaluation
framework that can evaluate the trade-off between
different management objectives when choosing from
alternate management options.
Use of stochastic simulation covering the full fisheries
system from the fish resources, through data collection,
assessment and management, and the response
of the system to management.
Fisheries Management Evaluation Framework
The framework will:
WP3
•
be developed to inform
an exploratory, adaptive
decision-making process.
•
appraise biological,
social and economic
effects of fisheries
management
measures in the EU.
•
be applied to key
European fisheries.
WP4
•
take into account the
dynamics of the
fisheries systems
and uncertainties, and
will include risk assessments.
EU FP6 SSP8-CT-2003-50251 EFIMAS
Hypotheses about
the “real” system
Output and Parameters from
WP4 analyses:
 Biological Dynamics
 Fleet Dynamics
 Fishery Interactions
…
Management Options
×
 TAC regulations
 Effort Control
 Technical Measures
…
Measures of Performance
Descriptive Models
Apply Simulation Model from
WP3 to
Case Studies.
Parameterization of Model:
Analyses with existing and
emerging descriptive
stock/fisheries assessment
models (e.g. TEMAS, CUBE,
XSA).
Feedback
(e.g. re-iterate)
Evaluation
Sustainability Objectives
Economic Objectives
Social Objectives
…
•
The input data will be generated
by a descriptive model assumed
to represent the “true/real” system.
•
The data will then be processed
by a traditional or alternative
assessment model, to
generate management advice.
•
Simulations of the resultant
management actions and of
their effect on the ”true/real”
system will generate a range
WP5
of performance measures
for the resource and the fishery.
These measures can then be compared across different
assessment models and management approaches.
EUROCEAN 2004, GALWAY, IRELAND, slide 1
EFIMAS - Operational Evaluation Tools
for Fisheries Management Options
Define starting state of "real" system (First year)
Year = year+1
Simulation
of "real" system
(Stochastic simulation
of dynamic processes)
(Stochastic simulation
of dynamic processes)
MANAGEMENT OPTION A
MANAGEMENT OPTION B
Simulated Sampling program
Simulated Sampling program
Input data (A)
Input data (B)
Processing and evaluation of
input data (Measurement error)
Processing and evaluation of
input data (Measurement error)
Fisheries Assessment (A)
(Estimation error,
Model mis-specificaton)
Fisheries Assessment (B)
(Estimation error,
Model mis-specificaton)
Management Advice (A)
Management Advice (B)
Simulation of implementation
of A-management
(Implementation error)
Simulation of implementation
of B-management
(Implementation error)
Measures of
performance
Update dynamics of "real" system
Update dynamics of "real" system
(Stochastic simulation of dynamic processes)
Simulation
of "real" system
Comparison
Evaluation of
alternatives
Measures of
performance
Year = year+1
• The operational evaluation tools will be
developed in parallel with an evaluation
of their utility in informing a decision
making process
 adaptable to experiences from
their use by stakeholders.
• The tools will be implemented in a
range of case studies of key European
fisheries
 adaptable to experiences from
case implementation.
EFIMAS will only recommend on
the implementation of
management options
Simulation Module of EFIMAS
that have been
Assessment
Management
evaluated through the
(Hypotheses about X
options
the
"real
system")
management
evaluation framework.
WP3
Example
A switch from stock based to fleet-and-fishery based management would represent a paradigm
change in fisheries management. The switch would enable advice as effort limits, and account
for technical interactions. It could also involve economic and social parameters. The evaluation
tools would simulate both stock-structured and fleet-structured input data, and would perform the
traditional stock assessments with stock structured data and alternative assessment with fleet
structured data. Replicate runs including stochastic variation would be used to estimate
probability distributions of the performance measures of the two alternative management
scenarios so that their performance could be compared.
EU FP6 SSP8-CT-2003-50251 EFIMAS
The framework will
enable stakeholders to
evaluate management
options relative to
specific objectives and
to the desired properties
of the management
procedures.
This will allow the
decision-makers to
explore alternatives by
comparing the expected
performance and
outcomes of various
options on the basis of
an evaluation and
simulation framework.
Potential application
SIMULATION MODULE OF EFIMAS
WP4
Descriptive
models
WP2
Feedback
Simulation
Measures of
performance
Evaluation
WP5
Knowlegde basis
EUROCEAN 2004, GALWAY, IRELAND, slide 2