Edward S. Shihadeh
Louisiana State University
The Imperative of Prediction
Hurricane Response Plan
(Risk, Needs, Responsivity Plan)
Your disaster plan will not work unless you
predict the hurricane’s arrival beforehand
What if you could predict a hurricane 9 months in advance?
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1970s Risk Analysis Tool – (adopted in the 1990s)
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Was useful - but antiquated by today’s standards:
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Limited accuracy:
 Compared to coin flip (50%), LARNA is 62% (ROC)
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Limited input of information (13 questions)
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Not validated to modern-day Louisiana offender population
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Cannot be easily updated
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Does not differentiate risk appropriately (over->)
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Collect vast amounts of data
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Enormous computing power
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Statistical analytical tools (e.g., neural networks)
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Amazon, Walmart, Capital One…
Bipartisan support for prison/sentencing reform
…Creating a risk/needs tool for Louisiana using 21st
century methods in predictive analytics.
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TIGER
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Traditional Approach
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Limited Analytics
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New Approach
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Hybrid of Behavioral-Institutional & Survey
data
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Internally validated
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Big Data, Predictive Analytics,
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Produces a custom tailored solution
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Labor intensive. Computationally complex
to generate the algorithm.
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But easy to administer the algorithm for
prediction.
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Training data based on all institutional
records.
(Factor Analysis, linear regression, etc.)
Not labor intensive. Computationally
simple.
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Off the shelf. One-size-fits-all
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Externally validated
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Low Accuracy
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Increase in student retention at LSU, LSU-A, USA.
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Student Recruitment. AI – based targeted models.
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Homicide rate decline of 50% in Baton Rouge since 2012.
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Crime Strategies Unit
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Supreme Court of Louisiana Bail Tool
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(Amazon, Walmart, Kroger, etc.)
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RNR TOOL
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Based on 160,000 releases from 2000 to 2010.
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Using more than 30 variables (subject to change)
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Algorithm that predicts risk of 3-year recidivism
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Compared to accuracy of coin flip (50%) & LARNA (62%),
TIGER is 78% (ROC)
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Developed algorithm from PAST releases
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2000-2010
Apply algorithm to FUTURE releases (6,000)
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Pilot project Oct/Nov 2016
Test on actual recidivism in Aug/Sept 2017
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Update algorithm for Deployment
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Automation phase (runs parallel with above)
Based on 113 (50) questions validated for
Louisiana
Evaluates 16 (5) categories of needs (domains)
Anti-Social Thinking
• Anti-Social Peers
• Substance Abuse
• Mental Health
• Depression
• Motivation
• Remorse/Empathy
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Self-Efficacy
Family and Parenting
Education/Vocation
Financial Stability
Employment
Transportation
Criminal History
Violence
Trauma/PTSD