The Chinese are coming
Agricultural mechanization
Omri van Zyl is the Executive Director of Agri SA
1. Introduction
Given global food security fears – climate change and
geopolitical instability – the question remains – who
will feed the world – and by and large Africa is the
perfect continent and solution to this increasing global
risk. So, let’s see what the picture looks like 50 years
from now.
Tractors have a skewed distribution, which splits the
regions of the world into two groups. The people living
in the larger group of regions have an average of
fewer than four tractors per thousand people. People
living in the other group of regions have more than
thirteen tractors per thousand people. Thus, the rate
of tractor ownership in one group of regions is at least
three times higher than that in the other group of
regions. The top ten territories for tractor ownership
are all European, the bottom ten are mainly African. It
is important that this is a count of working tractors
because broken tractors are not useful to farmers.
2. Conclusion
When analyzing the data, Africa will have large
population that are not well educated – the low
agriculture mechanization rate and technology
adaptation challenge also implies that Africa will not
be able to feed itself, the question is who will.
3. China
Population by 2050
By 2050 it is estimated that the earth's human
population will be 9.07 billion. 62% of the people will
live in Africa, Southern Asia and Eastern Asia numerically this is the same as if all the world's
current population lived just in these regions. In
addition, another 3000 000 000 will be spread across
the rest of the world.1
Let’s look at tertiary education
1
www.worldmapper.limited
China’s 1.4 billion people are building up an appetite
that is changing the way the world grows and sells
food. The Chinese diet is becoming more like that of
the average American, forcing companies to scour the
planet for everything from bacon to bananas.
But China’s efforts to buy or lease agricultural land in
developing nations show that building farms and
ranches abroad won’t be enough. Ballooning
populations in Asia, Africa and South America will add
another 2 billion people within a generation and they
too will need more food.
4. The bottom-line
The bottom line is that Africa is unlikely to chart the
way for food production globally – countries like China
will. Don’t be surprised if China takes over Africa to
produce food for its people.
China’s new merger via Syngenta and ChemChina of
$43 billion shows a big step from China in the
direction of Europe and the rest of the developed
world.
China’s land investment index 2
That leaves China with a stark ultimatum: If it is to
have enough affordable food for its population in the
second half of this century, it will need to make sure
the world grows food for 9 billion people.
Its answer is technology.
China’s agriculture industry, from the tiny rice plots
tended by 70-year-old grandfathers to the giant
companies that are beginning to challenge global
players like Nestle SA and Danone SA, is undergoing
a revolution that may be every bit as influential as the
industrial transformation that rewrote global trade.
The change started four decades ago when the
country began to recast its systems of production and
private enterprise. Those reforms precipitated an
economic boom, driven by factories, investment and
exports, but the changes down on the farm were just
as dramatic.
A change in diet is accelerating the search for
overseas supplies. Beef sales to China have risen
19,000 percent in the past decade. Imports of
soybeans, used in animal feed, have grown so fast
that the government quietly dropped the grain from its
self-sufficiency list in 2014. Land reforms lifted
production of grains like rice and wheat, and millions
joined a newly wealthy middle class that ate more
vegetables and pork and wanted rare luxuries like
beef and milk.
2
Note: Land investments are since 2006, agriculture since
2005.
Source: The Heritage Foundation, GRAIN.org
We see more and more land acquisitions in Africa and
very soon mechanization will follow. The ethical basis
of these land acquisitions must be questioned but
another element of this must be laid in front African
leaders.
If we do not develop our own continent – someone
else will. This is probably inevitable – it’s likely to
come from an Asian superpower with China and
perhaps India the most likely candidates.
Looking at the obvious numbers and data – Africa will
be a dependent continent for time to come. The
basics are still not in place and we don’t see this
changing. With the global economy getting more
mobile capital will remain shy, African leaders do not
seem to change the game for their people, but seem
to be in it for themselves.
Who buys the African leaders will win the chess game
– and with global resources dwindling – Asian super
powers are starting to make their move.
Food refugees are almost a given the magnitude of
these changes. My prediction is that most of these
will come from Africa and move up to Europe and
eventually the Americas.
Inter-country conflicts about water and access to
arable land will increase putting more tension on geopolitical relations.