Transit Elections
Successes and Failures:
Lessons Learned
Tim Baldwin, AICP
December 8, 2003
2002 Successes and Failures
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2003 Successes and Failures
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Factors Influencing Success or
Failure
Research by:
Richard Werbel, Professor of
Marketing, San Jose State
University
Factors Influencing Success or
Failure
Identifiable congestion “crisis”
Business community sponsorship
Endorsement by key elected
officials
Factors Influencing Success or
Failure
$1 million campaign
Recent initiative experience
Support from environmental
groups
Factors Influencing Success or
Failure
Multiple transit modes
Includes highway funding
Benefits distributed throughout
area
Factors Influencing Success or
Failure
Extension of existing rail system
No problems with local transit
system
Stakeholder participation in package
Factors Influencing Success or
Failure
General election
Combination of direct mail and TV
Lack of effective opposition
Factors Influencing Success or
Failure: 10 Elections 1997-2000
Those that passed (6) had no more
than 3 “negative” factors
Those that failed (4) had 10 or more
“negative” factors
Case Studies
Dallas Area Rapid
Transit 1988
(failed 2-1)
Case Studies
Denton County TX
2002/3
(passed 3-1)
Case Studies
Denver RTD, 2004?
Identifiable
congestion
crisis
Business
community
sponsorship
Elected
officials
endorsement
DART
1988
Denton
County TX
2002/3
Denver
RTD
2004?
a
a
a
-
a
a
x
-
?
$1 million
campaign
fund
Recent
initiative
experience
Environmental
group
support
DART
1988
Denton
County TX
2002/3
x
x
a
a
x
a
Denver
RTD
2004?
?
a
a
DART
1988
Denton
County TX
2002/3
Denver
RTD
2004?
Multiple
transportation
modes
x
a
a
Includes
highway
funding
x
x
X
Benefits
throughout
area
x
a
a
DART
1988
Denton
County TX
2002/3
Extension of
existing
rail system
x
x
Transit with
good local
reputation
x
x
Stakeholder
help with
package
x
a
Denver
RTD
2004?
a
a
a
DART
1988
General
election
date
Combination
direct mail and
TV ads
Lack of
effective
opposition
Denton
County TX
2002/3
x
Denver
RTD
2004?
a
a
a
x
?
x
a
?
DART
1988
(failed 2-1)
Denton Co.
2002/3
(passed 3-1)
Denver
RTD
(2004?)
Positive
factors
5
7
10?
Negative
factors
10
6
1-5?
Neutral or
uncertain
0
2
4?
Minimize Negative Factors to
Maximize Chances for
Top 12 Lessons Learned
Carl Guardino, President and CEO,
Silicon Valley Manufacturing
Group
Helped lead 5 winning
transportation ballot measures
since 1984
Generating $13 billion
California law requires 2/3 vote
Top 12 Lessons Learned
12. Names Matter; Timing is
Everything
“Taxpayers for Traffic Relief”
General elections good; special
elections bad
No relation to good or bad economy
Top 12 Lessons Learned
11. Build the Product or Buy
the Product
Building a coalition is critical
Limit the opposition by
embracing as many groups as
possible
Top 12 Lessons Learned
10. Data or Dogma?
Surveys are vital
Test all ideas; don’t assume you
know what the public wants
Top 12 Lessons Learned
9. Penny-wise or Pound-foolish?
You get what you pay for with
consultants
Avoid “political favors” or “friends”
when selecting a consultant
Top 12 Lessons Learned
8. Headlines or Headway?
“It is amazing what you can
accomplish when you don’t care
who gets the credit.”
“Run silent – run deep”
Top 12 Lessons Learned
7. Private or Public-Driven
Partnership?
Private sector should lead the
campaign
Taxpayer-to-taxpayer message
more credible
Top 12 Lessons Learned
6. Empower or Overpower
Find a role for everyone in the
coalition
Top 12 Lessons Learned
5. Watchdog or Lapdog?
Polling showed strong support
for citizen watchdog committee
Listen to the voters!
Top 12 Lessons Learned
4. Fundraising
Sufficient funding is critical (at least
$1 million in most metro areas)
Get up-front commitments
Run frugal campaigns emphasizing
voter contact
Top 12 Lessons Learned
3. Community Outreach
Speakers Bureau
Editorial Board visits
Free media
Paid media
Top 12 Lessons Learned
2. Pros or Schmoes?
Transportation professionals
developed list of projects
Political professionals determined
what voters would support
Top 12 Lessons Learned
1. Deliver or Wither
Previous delivery on promises is
critical for future voter approval