Multiplying Capitals: The Challenge
of Quantitative Modeling Using the
Community Capitals Framework
Stephen Gasteyer
Michigan State University
Why integrate CCF with biophysical
and socio-economic modeling efforts
• There are increasing attempts to model
biophysical processes
• There are increasing calls from policy and
decision makers to use models to mitigate risk
• There is increasing recognition of the import
of socio-economic processes
Some challenges to use of CCF
• Models are predictive…
• CCF is an heuristic device – a framework…
• In and of itself, it is not a theory – and
therefore does not imply hypotheses
• It therefore needs to be married with other
frameworks to be used in making prediction
• Or needs to adopt a more historical approach
that allows for prediction using the framework
as a heuristic
Additional challenges
• CCF is not based on mathematical principles
• Indeed, while there is a focus on indicators,
many of the most important indicators are
qualitative and have to be constructed into
quantitative measures
• CCF is contextual – so there is a challenge in
rigorously aggregating over space
Key connections to existing
frameworks
• Resilience theory – (Regime Theory)
• Risk theory – Renn’s dialogic frameworks…
• Socioecological Systems (SES)
– Derivative from Institutional Analysis for
Development (IAD)
– Integrating social systems theories…
– Integrating actual community dynamics
• Capacity theory…
Quantifying Capitals
Secondary
Data
Natural
Financial
Social
Survey
Built
Natural
Political
Interviews
Human
Community
Capitals
Framework
Secondary Data
1.
2.
3.
Financial Capital
1. Population Change
2. Poverty reduction
3. Change in number of small businesses
4. Income
Built Capital
1. Change in Vacant Housing Units
2. Local industries # increasing/
Decreasing?
1.
Political Capital
1. Consolidated Federal Funds (OMB)
2. USDA RD Funding (USDA)
3.
2.
Natural Capital
1. Toxic Release Inventory (TRI)
2. Soil Quality (USDA)
3. Air Quality (EPA
4. Land Use (NRI – Regional Planning)
5. Water Use (USGS)
6. Water Quality (EPA)
Cultural Capital
1. How far people travel to get to work
(Census-- stay in community or leave?)
Human Capital
1. Graduation Rates from elementary
school, middle school and high school
2. Out-migration/ in-migration of
educated population?
3. Education levels of community
members
4. Change in % of people of working age
(18 to 64)
5. Change in % of Employment
Primary Indicators
• Social Capital
• Cultural Capital
Percentage of respondents
who generally agree
100
80
60
40
20
0
Safer
Less
Trash
Improvements Neighbors Neighbors
Interact
Trust
MSU Neighborhood
Mowing
Changed
Measuring Capacities
Modeling CCF?
• Path Models
• Structural Equation Models
• Models of Resilience
Conclusion Modeling CCF
• What are the strategies for modeling CCF
across time and space?
• How to integrate with biophysical models?
• Can CCF integrate with predictive theories?