Economic Profile For the City of Greater Dandenong January 2013 Table of Contents Summary .................................................................................................................................................. i 1 Greater Dandenong Geography ...................................................................................................... 1 2 Greater Dandenong People ............................................................................................................ 2 3 4 5 2.1 Recent Population Growth...................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Forecast Population Growth ................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Age .......................................................................................................................................... 3 2.4 Household Income .................................................................................................................. 4 Greater Dandenong Workers .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1 The Labour-Force .................................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Industry ................................................................................................................................... 6 3.3 Occupation .............................................................................................................................. 7 3.4 Travel to work patterns........................................................................................................... 8 3.5 Unemployment ..................................................................................................................... 10 3.6 Qualifications ........................................................................................................................ 10 3.7 Language ............................................................................................................................... 11 Greater Dandenong Jobs .............................................................................................................. 12 4.1 Occupational Structure ......................................................................................................... 12 4.2 Origin of Workers in Greater Dandenong ............................................................................. 14 4.3 Industry Structure ................................................................................................................. 15 4.4 Income of workers in Greater Dandenong ........................................................................... 16 Greater Dandenong Businesses .................................................................................................... 18 5.1 Business by Industry ............................................................................................................. 18 5.2 Business Size ......................................................................................................................... 19 6 Greater Dandenong Output .......................................................................................................... 20 7 Greater Dandenong Property ....................................................................................................... 22 7.1 Residential Property Prices ................................................................................................... 22 7.2 Value of Building Work ......................................................................................................... 23 8 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 25 9 References .................................................................................................................................... 26 January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile I Summary The City of Greater Dandenong is a suburban municipality with a mix of residential areas, large activity centres, extensive industrial precincts and green wedge land used for pastoral activities and water treatment purposes. The industrial precincts form part of one of Australia’s most significant and productive manufacturing areas; and Central Dandenong has long been considered Metropolitan Melbourne’s second city centre. These activities generate many jobs, with Greater Dandenong being a net importer of labour from surrounding municipalities. The City has been a first home for successive waves of migrants in the continuing post-war period. This has created a vibrant cultural mix but has also resulted in some labour-market disadvantages through lack of qualifications and English language skills. High local unemployment is one result of this factor. Indicator Greater Dandenong Metropolitan Melbourne 142,591 4,107,945 Annual population growth rate, 2001 to 2011 1.7% 1.8% Forecast annual population growth rate, 2012 to 2026 1.1% 1.4% Households with a weekly income less than $600 in 2011 30% 21% Households with a weekly income more than $2,000 in 2011 16% 31% Labour Force (September 2012) 64,030 2,266,200 Jobs 76,578 1,682,712 142% 97% (Victoria) Manufacturing (27%) Health Care & Social Assistance (Victoria)(12%) 19% 35%(Victoria) 91.5% 94.6% 30% na Manufacturing Healthcare & Social Assistance (Victoria) 12,525 405,602 Property and business services Property and business services Proportion of businesses with up to 19 employees, 2011 93% 96% Gross Regional Product or Gross State Product per resident 2012 $74,857 $57,087 (Victoria) $383,415 $424,918 $2,200 $1,600 Estimated resident population in 2011 Employment self sufficiency (jobs in the area compared with employed residents), 2011 Largest industry for employed residents, 2011 Employed residents who are managers or professionals 2011 Employment rate, June Quarter 2012 Proportion of resident workers who work in Greater Dandenong, 2011 Industry that generates most jobs within the area, 2011 Estimated number of businesses, 2011 Industry with largest number of businesses, 2011 Median house prices, 2012 Value of non-housing building works per person 2011 January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile II January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 1 1 Greater Dandenong Geography In this profile, statistical information is provided for Greater Dandenong as a whole and, occasionally, for its constituent Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) of which there are two, as shown in the diagram below. Greater Dandenong (C) – Dandenong SLA includes the suburbs of Dandenong and parts of Dandenong South Greater Dandenong (C) – Balance SLA includes the suburbs of Springvale, Keysborough and parts of Dandenong South Figure 1: Statistical Local Areas in Greater Dandenong Source: ABS, CData Online January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 2 2 Greater Dandenong People 2.1 Recent Population Growth In 2011, the City of Greater Dandenong had an estimated resident population of 142,591 people (ABS, 2011). Between 2005 and 2011, the City grew at an average of 1.7% per year. This growth has arisen from new housing developments throughout the municipality, particularly in Keysborough and around Central Dandenong (including the redevelopment of the former Dandenong saleyards). In comparison, population growth rate was 1.8% for Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole between 2005 and 2011. Figure 2: The figure below illustrates recent population growth in the Greater Dandenong. Recent population growth, Greater Dandenong, 2001 to 2011 Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth Australia, 2011 January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 3 2.2 Forecast Population Growth The forecast by the Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD, 2012) suggests that the population of Greater Dandenong will grow by 1.1 % per year over the period between 2012 and 2026. This compares with a forecast average growth of 1.4% per year for Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole over the same period. These forecasts are based on the projected share of Victoria’s growth captured by each area and on the expected housing development in the respective areas. The following chart provides a comparison of recent growth as estimated by the ABS and forecasts of growth prepared by State Government and by Greater Dandenong Council for the municipality over the period to 2026. The Council and State Government forecasts have broadly similar outcomes. The Council predicts that growth will slow when housing land in new estates (particularly in Keysborough) becomes fully developed. Figure 3: Forecast population growth, Greater Dandenong, 2001 to 2026 Source: DPCD, Victoria in Future 2012; City of Greater Dandenong, 2012, Population Forecasts 2.3 Age The following figure illustrates the anticipated change in the number of people in particular age groups in Greater Dandenong over the period from 2011 to 2026. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 4 Figure 4: Forecast change in population of age groups, Greater Dandenong, 2011 to 2026 Source: DPCD, Victoria in Future 2012 The figure shows: growth in all age groups substantial growth in the 30 to 49 and 60+ age groups, particularly in those aged 75 to 84 significant growth in school age children (5 to 19 years) Care should be taken in interpreting these figures given the discussion about the forecasts above. Nevertheless, the implications of these changes include: a reduction in the proportion of working people to non-working people, with the potential for a reduction in average income levels (since retirement incomes are generally less than working incomes) increase in demand for retirement services (health, adult education, gentle recreational activities etc) continued growth in demand for school places and jobs in education This pattern compares broadly with the forecast for Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole, although Greater Dandenong does appear to have relatively low growth in its working age groups and high growth in school age children compared with Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. 2.4 Household Income In 2011, Greater Dandenong had a median weekly household income of $953. This compared with $1,333 for households in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. Allowing for the larger average number of persons per household in Greater Dandenong than Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 5 (2.8 compared with 2.6), these figures indicate that the residents of the Greater Dandenong have incomes that are substantially lower than average. The following figure shows the spread of household incomes in Greater Dandenong compared with Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole (not including not stated income households). Figure 5: Average weekly household incomes, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 In Greater Dandenong 30% of households have an income less than $600 per week compared with 21% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. At the other end of the scale, only 16% of households in Greater Dandenong have an income of $2,000 or more per week compared with 31% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. The low household incomes reflect the occupational structure of the resident labour-force, the relatively high unemployment and relatively low educational qualifications of residents. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 6 3 Greater Dandenong Workers 3.1 The Labour-Force In 2011, the Census of Population and Housing recorded 64,030 residents of Greater Dandenong who were working or looking for work. This represented a crude participation rate of 46% (that is 46% of all residents were working or looking for work) in comparison with 55% in Metro Melbourne. This relatively low participation rate reflects a higher proportion of single income families and higher levels of disadvantage in the labour market. 3.2 Industry The following table shows the industry that residents of Greater Dandenong work in. Table 1: Industry of resident’s employment, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Industry Greater Dandenong (c) Metropolitan Melbourne No. % % Agriculture, forestry & fishing 520 1% 0% Mining 48 0% 0% 12,345 23% 11% 442 1% 1% Construction 3,459 6% 8% Wholesale trade 3,173 6% 5% Retail trade 5,720 11% 11% Accommodation & food services 3,352 6% 6% Transport, postal & warehousing 3,051 6% 5% 851 2% 2% 1,830 3% 5% 510 1% 1% Professional, scientific & technical services 2,377 4% 9% Administrative & support services 2,120 4% 3% Public administration & safety 1,738 3% 5% Education & training 2,349 4% 8% Health care & social assistance 5,225 10% 11% 494 1% 2% Other services 2,096 4% 4% Inadequately described/Not stated 2,370 4% 3% Total 54,070 100% 100% Manufacturing Electricity, gas, water & waste services Information media & telecommunications Financial & insurance services Rental, hiring & real estate services Arts & recreation services Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 7 Compared with Metropolitan Melbourne, Greater Dandenong has a very high proportion of resident workers engaged in manufacturing. Greater Dandenong has a relatively small proportion of resident workers engaged in higher order services such as finance, professional, scientific and technical services, education and health. These figures reflect, in part, the occupational structure outlined below. 3.3 Occupation The occupation of resident workers is shown in the table below. Table 2: Occupation of resident workers, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Occupation Greater Dandenong no. Metropolitan Melbourne % % Managers 3,788 7 13 Professionals 6,691 12 22 Technicians and Trades Workers 8,583 16 14 Community & Personal Service Workers 4,787 9 9 Clerical and Administrative workers 7,092 13 15 Sales Workers 4,731 9 10 Machinery Operators and Drivers 7,341 14 6 Labourers 9,213 17 9 Inadequately Described/ Not Stated 1,848 Total 54,074 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 3 100 2 100 Compared with Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole, Greater Dandenong has a relatively high proportion of machinery operators, drivers and labourers and a relatively low proportion of managers, professionals and other white collar workers. This pattern accounts for the relatively low incomes in Greater Dandenong. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 8 3.4 Travel to work patterns The table below shows that 30% of working residents work in Greater Dandenong. The other residents travel outside the municipality to work. The largest proportion of residents work in the neighbouring municipalities of Kingston, Monash, Melbourne and Casey (a total of 36%). Other residents travel to the inner city or elsewhere in the southern and eastern suburbs. Table 3: Location of work for employed residents of Greater Dandenong, 2011 15,038 Proportion of residents who travel to this destination to work 28% Kingston 5,920 11% Monash 5,756 11% Melbourne 4,168 8% Casey 2,041 4% Knox 1,667 3% Glen Eira 1,114 2% Whitehorse 1,057 2% Stonnington 1,017 2% Frankston 879 2% Port Phillip 824 2% Yarra 733 1% Bayside 731 1% Boroondara 673 1% Maroondah 481 1% Mornington Pen. 306 1% Yarra Ranges 192 0% Cardinia 180 0% Manningham 159 0% Hobsons Bay 150 0% Darebin 135 0% Hume 127 0% Brimbank 124 0% Other Destination 10,598 20% Total 54,070 100% Municipality or other area Residents who travel to this destination to work Greater Dandenong Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 9 In common with most metropolitan municipalities, more local people work outside the municipality than within it. Some residents of Greater Dandenong live close to employment areas in surrounding municipalities such as Frankston, Kingston, Knox and Monash. And the developing metropolitan freeway network makes it very easy for residents of Greater Dandenong to access employment throughout Metropolitan Melbourne. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 10 3.5 Unemployment The chart below illustrates the change in the official rate of unemployment in Greater Dandenong over the period from March 2005 to September 2012. Unemployment in Greater Dandenong has been consistently higher than Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. In the more recent period (September 2012) unemployment in Greater Dandenong was 8.7%, much higher than Metropolitan Melbourne (which had unemployment of 5.5%). These figures indicate that Greater Dandenong has a disproportionate share of people who are susceptible to unemployment, likely to be a result of low skills and lack of qualifications. They also show that Greater Dandenong is more sensitive to economic shocks as unemployment fluctuations were felt more than in Metropolitan Melbourne during GFC. Figure 6: Unemployment rate, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, March 2005 to Sep 2012 Source: Department of Education Employment and Workplace Relations, 2012, Small Area Labour Markets Australia 3.6 Qualifications The following table details the type of qualifications held by residents aged over 15 years. It shows that of those residents with a qualification, 28% had a Bachelor degree or higher in Greater Dandenong compared with 49% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. Postgraduate qualifications were similarly relatively low, accounting for 5% of those with a qualification in Greater Dandenong and 10% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 11 Table 4: Qualifications of residents, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 no. % Metropolitan Melbourne % 2,729 5% 10% 891 2% 5% Bachelor Degree 10,917 21% 34% Advanced Diploma and Diploma 8,803 17% 17% Certificate 14,725 28% 28% Education inadequately described or not stated 13,724 27% 6% Total 51,789 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 100% 100% Qualification Greater Dandenong Postgraduate Degree Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate The relatively low level of qualifications amongst residents is one reason that incomes in the municipality are low. 3.7 Language Cultural diversity is a valued characteristic of the municipality and can be an economic strength, particularly in dealing with exporting and importing, as well as in generating cultural tourism. However, an inability to speak English is a strong disadvantage in the Metropolitan Melbourne labour-market. The following table provides a comparison between the level of migrants and their English language skills in Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. Table 5: Origin and language, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Origin and language % Metropolitan Melbourne % 40% 67% Greater Dandenong Persons born in Australia Persons born overseas 60% 33% Speaks only English at home 10% 12% Speaks another language and speaks English well or very well 35% 17% Speaks another language and speaks English not well or not at all 14% 4% Proficiency in English not stated Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing (adjusted), 2011 1% 0% A majority of residents in Greater Dandenong were born overseas compared with little over a third in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. The table shows that in Greater Dandenong 14% of people have difficulties speaking English, compared with only 4% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. In Greater Dandenong the number of persons born overseas increased by 18% since 2006, whereas, the number of people born in Australia decreased by less than 2%. Greater Dandenong has been home to successive waves of migrants, particularly those who are refugees or who have been settled in Australia on humanitarian grounds. This explains the relative higher proportion of Greater Dandenong residents who are not proficient in English and, to some extent, explains the relatively low levels of formal qualifications within the labour-force. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 12 4 Greater Dandenong Jobs 4.1 Occupational Structure The following table provides a breakdown of the occupations of people employed in Greater Dandenong. Table 6: Occupation of workers in Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Occupation Greater Dandenong Victoria No % % Managers 10,144 13% 13% Professionals 10,029 16% 23% Technicians and Trades Workers 11,167 15% 14% Community & Personal Service Workers 4,165 5% 9% Clerical and Administrative workers 12,860 17% 15% Sales Workers 6,502 8% 10% Machinery Operators and Drivers 10,685 14% 6% Labourers 7,745 10% 9% Inadequately Described/ Not Stated 1281 2% 1% 100% 100% Total 76578 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 Whilst Greater Dandenong has the same proportion of managerial jobs compared with Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole, it has a much lower proportion of professionals. Greater Dandenong also has a lower proportion of community service workers and a higher proportion of machinery operators, drivers and labourers which is a result of the large manufacturing and distribution functions in Greater Dandenong. The following table provides a comparison between the jobs in Greater Dandenong and the occupations of resident workers. It shows the employment self-sufficiency in each occupation in Greater Dandenong, that is, the number of jobs as a proportion of working local residents. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 13 Table 7: Occupational structure of jobs in Greater Dandenong and employment self sufficiency, 2011 Jobs in Greater Dandenong Resident Workers Net export of jobs Employment self-sufficiency No. No. No. % Managers 10,144 3,788 6,356 268% Professionals 12,029 6,691 5,338 180% Technicians and Trades Workers 11,167 8,583 2,584 130% Community & Personal Service Workers 4,165 4,787 -622 87% Clerical and Administrative workers 12,860 7,092 5,768 181% Sales Workers 6,502 4,731 1,771 137% Machinery Operators and Drivers 10,685 7,341 3,344 146% Labourers 7,745 9,213 -1,468 84% Inadequately Described/ Not Stated 1281 1,848 22,504 142% Occupation Total 76,578 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 54,074 Notes: Employment self-sufficiency is measured as the percentage of jobs in Greater Dandenong to resident workers (figures of less than 100% indicate a net export of workers in that category). The table shows that there are approximately 76,578 jobs in Greater Dandenong compared with 54,074 resident workers. The activities in Greater Dandenong generate a net import of 22,504 workers. The highest net imports are of managers, professionals and clerical workers. Greater Dandenong has a minor net export of labourers and community & personal service workers; that is, there are more of these workers living in Greater Dandenong than there are these types jobs in the municipality. Greater Dandenong is clearly a major employment destination for people throughout the region. Proportionately more of the higher skill and higher paid jobs require workers from outside the municipality. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 14 4.2 Origin of Workers in Greater Dandenong The following table shows the origin of people who work in Greater Dandenong Table 8: Origin of workers in Greater Dandenong, 2011 Origin of workers Casey Greater Dandenong no. 20,553 % 27% 15,038 20% Frankston 5,724 8% Kingston 5,181 7% Monash 4,688 6% Knox 4,476 6% Cardinia 3,731 5% Mornington Peninsula 2,638 3% Yarra Ranges 1,711 2% Whitehorse 1,663 2% Glen Eira 1,597 2% Maroondah 1,156 2% Bayside 1,006 1% Boroondara 989 1% Manningham 754 1% Stonnington 729 1% Port Phillip 517 1% Baw Baw 380 0% Elsewhere 4,047 5% Total 76,578 100% Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 The table shows that Greater Dandenong is the source of employment for many people throughout the southern and south-eastern suburbs of Metropolitan Melbourne. Indeed, Greater Dandenong provides more jobs for residents of Casey than it does for residents of Greater Dandenong. This is understandable since the major job concentrations in Dandenong South are closer to some residents of Casey than to many residents of Greater Dandenong. The adjoining municipalities of Casey, Frankston, Kingston, Monash and Knox are the source of 54% of all workers in Greater Dandenong. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 15 4.3 Industry Structure The following table provides a breakdown of the industries of the jobs in Greater Dandenong. It also provides a comparison with the industry of resident workers and shows the employment selfsufficiency in each industry. Table 9: Industry structure of jobs in Greater Dandenong and employment self-sufficiency, 2011 Industry Agriculture, forestry & fishing Jobs in Greater Dandenong No. % Resident workers No. % Emplo yment self sufficie ncy % 276 0% 520 1% 53% 35 0% 48 0% 73% 22,811 30% 12,345 23% 185% 800 1% 442 1% 181% Construction 3,857 5% 3,459 6% 112% Wholesale trade 8,054 11% 3,173 6% 254% Retail trade 6,930 9% 5,720 11% 121% Accommodation & food services 2,093 3% 3,352 6% 62% Transport, postal & warehousing 5,042 7% 3,051 6% 165% 483 1% 851 2% 57% Financial & insurance services 1,765 2% 1,830 3% 96% Rental, hiring & real estate services 1,066 1% 510 1% 209% Professional, scientific & technical services 2,342 3% 2,377 4% 99% Administrative & support services 1,732 2% 2,120 4% 82% Public administration & safety 3,193 4% 1,738 3% 184% Education & training 4,405 6% 2,349 4% 188% Health care & social assistance 6,815 9% 5,225 10% 130% 416 1% 494 1% 84% Other services 3,288 4% 2,096 4% 157% Inadequately described/Not stated 1,174 1% 2,370 4% 50% 76,578 100% 54,070 100% 142% Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas, water & waste services Information media & telecommunications Arts & recreation services Total Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 Note: Employment self-sufficiency is measured as the percentage of jobs in Greater Dandenong to resident workers. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 16 By far the largest industry within Greater Dandenong is manufacturing, which accounts for nearly 22,811 jobs or 30% of all employment in the City. Wholesale provides over 8,000 and retail trade provides almost 7,000 local jobs or 11% and 9% of the total employment respectively. Health care and social assistance sector employment grew 18% since 2006 to provide almost 7000 jobs in 2011. Greater Dandenong has a net import of workers to satisfy the requirements of enterprises in the municipality. Industries that have a relatively high net import of workers include manufacturing, utilities, wholesale trade, transport, property services, public administration and education. The municipality has a net export of workers in primary industries, accommodation and food services, information, media and telecommunications, financial services and administrative services. 4.4 Income of workers in Greater Dandenong The following chart illustrates the income of people working in Greater Dandenong. Figure 7: Gross weekly income of people at work in Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011 The incomes of people employed in Greater Dandenong (GD) are towards the middle of the scale; that is, there are proportionately fewer very low and very high incomes than in Victoria. The median weekly income of workers in Greater Dandenong ($890) is slightly higher to that in Victoria as a whole ($873). This is in contrast to the incomes of residents which are much lower, on average, than in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. This indicates that local residents are not securing the higher January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 17 paid jobs located within the municipality and this is consistent with previous data showing the relatively low levels of skill and qualification of local residents. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 18 5 Greater Dandenong Businesses 5.1 Business by Industry The ABS produces an estimate of business numbers in each SLA based on modified data from tax records. The latest estimate of numbers is reproduced in the table below. Table 10: Estimate of the number of businesses, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, June 2011 Industry Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas and water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, cafes and restaurants Transport and storage Communication services Finance and insurance Greater Dandenong (C) Melbourne no % % 143 1% 2% 24 0% 0% 1412 11% 5% 56 0% 0% 1827 15% 16% 937 8% 5% 1070 9% 7% 457 4% 4% 1654 13% 7% 47 0% 1% 657 5% 9% 2655 22% 30% 87 1% 1% 420 3% 5% 63 Other services & not classified 1016 Total businesses 12525 Source: ABS, 2011, National Regional Profile 0% 1% Property and business services Education Health and community services Cultural and recreational services 8% 100% 7% 100% Note: The figures in this table should be treated with caution. The ABS use modified data from the count of Australian Business Numbers. This data has several sources of potential error, including the correlation between an ABN and an actual business generating economic activity. In addition, the data is collected on an enterprise and not a location basis and this may exclude branches of multi-locational businesses. The table shows approximately 12,525 businesses in Greater Dandenong. Of these, the largest number is in the property and business services sector as well as construction, transport and storage and manufacturing. Between them, these four industries account for 61% of all registered businesses in Greater Dandenong. Compared with Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole, Greater Dandenong has a relatively high proportion of manufacturing, wholesale, retail and transport businesses. It has relatively few businesses in finance and insurance or property and business services. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 19 5.2 Business Size The following table shows the employment size of the businesses in Greater Dandenong. Table 11: Estimate of size of businesses, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 2011 Business Size Non-employing businesses Employing businesses: 1 to 4 employees Employing businesses: 5 or more employees Total businesses Source: ABS, 2011, Counts of Australian Businesses Greater Dandenong (C) no % 7 199 58% 2 889 23% 2 437 12 525 19% 100% Melbourne Metro % 60% 25% 15% 100% Note: The figures in this table should be treated with caution. The ABS use modified data from the count of Australian Business Numbers. This data has several sources of potential error, including the correlation between an ABN and an actual business generating economic activity. In addition, the data is collected on an enterprise and not a location basis and this may exclude branches of multi-locational businesses. In Greater Dandenong, 58% of all businesses are sole proprietorships or partnerships that do not have employees. Micro-businesses in Greater Dandenong, that is, businesses employing less than five people constitute 81% of all businesses (and this compares with 85% of businesses in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole). Greater Dandenong has a relatively high proportion of businesses employing five or more people – 19% of businesses in Greater Dandenong employ five or more compared with 15% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. Data from the ABS for Metro Melbourne as a whole suggests that approximately 60% of all businesses are home-based businesses. In Greater Dandenong, the relatively smaller proportion of micro-businesses, suggests that home-based businesses are likely to form a smaller proportion of the total. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 20 6 Greater Dandenong Output The following table provides an estimate of economic output and value added of the various industries in Greater Dandenong. Table 12: Estimate of output and value-added, Greater Dandenong, December 2012 Local Expenditure Regional Imports Industry Sector Output Manufacturing $M $15,505.34 $M $4,432.75 $M $8,041.95 $M $3,030.63 Wholesale Trade $2,659.80 $769.70 $598.17 $1,291.92 Construction $1,593.68 $793.05 $316.61 $484.02 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services $1,515.26 $296.74 $271.12 $947.39 Transport, Postal & Warehousing $1,268.32 $454.55 $238.27 $575.51 Financial & Insurance Services $930.32 $153.09 $174.16 $603.08 Health Care & Social Assistance $747.68 $170.86 $74.51 $502.31 Retail Trade $652.70 $151.34 $110.89 $390.47 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services $601.92 $159.58 $183.67 $258.67 Public Administration & Safety $585.00 $148.64 $111.05 $325.31 Education & Training $493.53 $77.37 $61.45 $354.71 Other Services $441.07 $164.34 $56.62 $220.11 Administrative & Support Services $369.28 $106.51 $84.19 $178.59 Accommodation & Food Services $232.67 $71.06 $61.50 $100.10 Information Media & Telecommunications $231.28 $61.14 $58.28 $111.87 Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services $224.66 $53.23 $41.75 $129.69 Arts & Recreation Services $80.13 $28.37 $21.24 $30.51 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing $79.57 $27.63 $16.58 $35.36 Mining $47.16 $7.50 $19.58 $20.07 $28,259.34 $8,127.45 $10,541.58 $9,590.30 Total Value-Added Source: Compelling Economics, 2012, REMPLAN Note: All figures, data and commentary presented in this table are from the REMPLAN model which is based on data sourced from the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS), including the Census of Population and Housing and National Accounts Greater Dandenong has an estimated economic output of over $28 billion (2012) and a value added of over $9.5 billion. Manufacturing is by far the largest industry and accounts for over $15.5 billion of output (55% of the total) and over $3 billion of value added (32% of the total). [Value-added is a measure of how much value has been added to goods and services by businesses within Greater Dandenong.] Compelling Economics estimates that the Gross Regional Product per capita in the municipality was $74,857 in 2012. This compares with $57,087 per person in Victoria as a whole for the same period. [Gross Regional Product (GRP) is the total value of final goods and services produced in the region over the period of one year. GRP is calculated by adding up all forms of final expenditure including: January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 21 consumption by households; consumption by governments; additions or increases to assets (minus disposals); and exports (minus imports). ] These figures show that Greater Dandenong is an important source of economic value for the State. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 22 7 Greater Dandenong Property 7.1 Residential Property Prices Residential property prices are a good indication of the demand by the general community to live in an area and of the type of property that is available. The following chart shows the trend in the median price of a house in Greater Dandenong over the past decade. Figure 8: Median house prices, Greater Dandenong and Metropolitan Melbourne, 1985 to 2012 Source: Land Data Department of Sustainability and Environment, 2012 Note: current prices, not adjusted for inflation Median house prices in Greater Dandenong have remained consistently lower than those in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole over the period from 1985 to 2012. From 1985 to 2001, median house prices in Greater Dandenong did not increase as fast as those in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. However, from 2001 to 2010 prices in the municipality have slightly outpaced those in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. In part, this reflects the change in housing stock available for sale within Greater Dandenong (including second and third home-buyer family homes in Keysborough). In part, too, the change reflects an improvement in the accessibility of Greater Dandenong as a result of Eastlink and other transport improvements. From 2011, however, the median price decreased both in the municipality and Metropolitan Melbourne. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 23 7.2 Value of Building Work The annual value of building permits in Greater Dandenong is illustrated in the following chart. The chart differentiates between housing and non-housing building permits. Figure 9: Annual value of housing and non-housing construction in Greater Dandenong, 2001 to 2011 Source: Building Commission Victoria, 2011, Pulse The chart shows that construction of workplaces is the largest component of the local building sector. This demonstrates the importance of non-housing investment in the municipality. If looked at on a per capita basis, total building value in 2011 was $3,672 per person in Greater Dandenong. This compared with $4,723 per person in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. The value of non-housing construction was $2,206 per capita in Greater Dandenong compared with $1,609 in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 24 The aerial photographs of a section of the Greater Dandenong industrial growth area between Hammond Rd and Ordish Rd from 2002 and 2012 illustrate an example of how the industrial area grew over the ten year period. The industrial areas still continue to grow consistent with ongoing investment in non-housing construction. Figure 10: Aerial photograph Ordish Rd and Hammond Rd 2002 Figure 11: Aerial photograph Ordish Rd and Hammond Rd 2012 January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 25 8 Conclusion The statistical data outlined here shows a number of key points about the economy of Greater Dandenong: The municipality is a major source of employment for the whole South East Region of Metropolitan Melbourne and beyond. In 2011, Greater Dandenong had 76,578 jobs and only 54,070 workers; there was a net import of 22,508 workers. It is estimated that in 2012, the value of economic output per resident was $74,857 in Greater Dandenong, compared with $57,087 per resident in Victoria as a whole. Manufacturing is especially strong and accounts for 30% of all the jobs in the municipality. The manufacturing industry in Greater Dandenong has an annual output currently estimated at $15.5 billion (55% of the total output). The population of the municipality is forecast to grow at 1.1% per year until 2026, albeit with fluctuations depending on the availability of housing land. The resident labour-force of Greater Dandenong is relatively disadvantaged. On average, residents of Greater Dandenong have lower levels of qualification than their counterparts in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. This leads to lower proportions of professional and managerial workers, lower household incomes and higher rates of unemployment compared to Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. Greater Dandenong has a relatively high proportion of migrants (60% of people in Greater Dandenong are born overseas compared with 33% in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole). Some of these migrants have difficulties speaking English and this further reinforces local labourmarket disadvantage. The ABS estimates that in 2011 there were 12,525 businesses in Greater Dandenong. The growth in the number of businesses in the municipality is higher than for Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole, indicating that this is a place where entrepreneurs come to start business. Whilst housing is relatively inexpensive in Greater Dandenong, the median price of housing has been accelerating more rapidly than that in Metropolitan Melbourne as a whole. This is likely to be as a result of both an improvement in the quality of housing stock for sale and real appreciation in the value of existing housing as the municipality becomes more and more accessible. In the recent period house prices have started to decline. These statistics indicate a municipality with a strong base in manufacturing, hosting jobs for the regional labour-force. The local resident labour-force however is characterised with high unemployment and low skills. These factors provide scope for action on local economic development. January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile 26 9 References ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), Regional Population Growth Australia, 2011 & 2012, Canberra ABS, National Regional Profiles, 2011, Canberra ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011, Canberra ABS, Gross State Product, Chain volume measures and current prices, 2012, Canberra Building Commission Victoria, 2012, Pulse, Melbourne Compelling Economics, 2012, REMPLAN, for Greater Dandenong Department of Employment and Workplace Relations, 2012, Small Area Labour Markets, Canberra DPCD, 2012, Victoria in Future 2012, Melbourne Land Data Department of Sustainability and Environment, Median House Prices, 2012, Melbourne City of Greater Dandenong, 2012, Population Forecasts, Greater Dandenong January 2013 Greater Dandenong Economic Profile
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